The Bills have the #30 rush defense in the NFL, according to PFF.

Their overall grade for the season in run defense is a 53.9  Why do they rate so low?  Their TACKLING grade is a dismal 38.9.  It appears that their weakness is to run right at them....something the Bengals do quite often, as opposed to outside runs, but they have had a fairly poor success rate.  The Bills grade/weakness has likely been highlighted by their division.  The AFC East is loaded with teams that are pretty successful rushing the ball (the Jets were as well before losing offensive linemen and Breece Hall.  

This leads me to think that a lot of these games, the Bills just got way up and the opposition had to abandon their rushing attack.

Here is the run/pass mix for the Bills' three loses, by their opponent:

9/25 Miami L 19-21.  Miami ran the ball 17 times and passed it 20 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 1-0.  

11/6 NYJ L  17-20.  Jets ran the ball a whopping 34 times, and passed it just 25 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 2-1.

11/13 Minnesota L 33-30  Minnesota ran the ball just 25 times, compared to 50 throws.  The Bills had 4 tunovers to the Vikins 2.  

Despite that last example, where the turnovers clearly killed the Bills, as Minnesota has no semblance of a defense, you can see that when the opposition stayed dedicated to the rushing attack, or at least had BALANCE, it tended to give Minnesota fits.  

Conversely to all these struggles in rush defense, the Bills actually have some really highly rankced pass rushers, even without Von Miller. PFF has them as the 6th highest rated pass rush in the NFL.  

Now, of COURSE I want to see explosive plays.  I want to attack them downfield, but I also hope the Bengals really dedicate themselves to running the ball and staying balanced.  I think if Mixon/Perine have a big game, this is certainly a win.

(01-21-2023, 12:18 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: The Bills have the #30 rush defense in the NFL, according to PFF.

Their overall grade for the season in run defense is a 53.9  Why do they rate so low?  Their TACKLING grade is a dismal 38.9.  It appears that their weakness is to run right at them....something the Bengals do quite often, as opposed to outside runs, but they have had a fairly poor success rate.  The Bills grade/weakness has likely been highlighted by their division.  The AFC East is loaded with teams that are pretty successful rushing the ball (the Jets were as well before losing offensive linemen and Breece Hall.  

This leads me to think that a lot of these games, the Bills just got way up and the opposition had to abandon their rushing attack.

Here is the run/pass mix for the Bills' three loses, by their opponent:

9/25 Miami L 19-21.  Miami ran the ball 17 times and passed it 20 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 1-0.  

11/6 NYJ L  17-20.  Jets ran the ball a whopping 34 times, and passed it just 25 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 2-1.

11/13 Minnesota L 33-30  Minnesota ran the ball just 25 times, compared to 50 throws.  The Bills had 4 tunovers to the Vikins 2.  

Despite that last example, where the turnovers clearly killed the Bills, as Minnesota has no semblance of a defense, you can see that when the opposition stayed dedicated to the rushing attack, or at least had BALANCE, it tended to give Minnesota fits.  

Conversely to all these struggles in rush defense, the Bills actually have some really highly rankced pass rushers, even without Von Miller. PFF has them as the 6th highest rated pass rush in the NFL.  

Now, of COURSE I want to see explosive plays.  I want to attack them downfield, but I also hope the Bengals really dedicate themselves to running the ball and staying balanced.  I think if Mixon/Perine have a big game, this is certainly a win.

If Cincy can have success in the run game it’s really a nightmare for teams. But as the game gets closer I’m leaning to the Bengals confidence and calmness as the difference . It’s not easy to come by.

Good information. It would be nice to see a good mix of pass and run but probably unlikely. With 2 back up tackles you would think we would at least try.

That tackling grade is alarming. Beyond the obvious run play, Chase and Tee even can do some major damage on short passes after the catch since Burrow won't have time. The forecast says only a 5pmh wind, so regardless of snow these two should be a force.

Really comes down to Mixon not getting destroyed as a blocker to justify him being there. Hurst and Perine should get more than a few quick outs too.

So the Bills, as professionals, don't know tackling is their weakness. And if they do, they are going to do nothing to rectify it. They will just go into the game as is. Nice.

(01-21-2023, 12:22 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: If Cincy can have success in the run game it’s really a nightmare for teams. But as the game gets closer I’m leaning to the Bengals confidence and calmness as the difference . It’s not easy to come by.

I agree that the pressure is all on Buffalo.  They were the underdogs heading to KC last year, but now it is "just beat Cincy THEN you get the big game".  I like your point.  

(01-21-2023, 12:34 PM)Interceptor Wrote: So the Bills, as professionals, don't know tackling is their weakness. And if they do, they are going to do nothing to rectify it. They will just go into the game as is. Nice.

You don't suddenly become adept at something because you know it is your weakness and has been over 17 games.  See Carman, Jackson. 

(01-21-2023, 12:25 PM)phil413 Wrote: That tackling grade is alarming.  Beyond the obvious run play, Chase and Tee even can do some major damage on short passes after the catch since Burrow won't have time.  The forecast says only a 5pmh wind, so regardless of snow these two should be a force.  

Really comes down to Mixon not getting destroyed as a blocker to justify him being there.  Hurst and Perine should get more than a few quick outs too.

Buffalo's defensive tackles are a bit undersized and their rotational players inside are fighting back from injuries.  Success early in the run game could really wear them down by the end of the game.  Ballsnomore understood this and stayed dedicated to the run game, even when behind.  

(01-21-2023, 12:25 PM)M.W. Wrote: Good information.  It would be nice to see a good mix of pass and run but probably unlikely. With 2 back up tackles you would think we would at least try.

I want to see the run game attitude that we saw when Mixon came out and destroyed Carolina.  Have that same drive....we are going to shove it down their f'n throats.  

Depending on the weather... I still see the Bengals coming out heavy in passing formations.

Which I'm completely fine with... I don't want them getting stuffed on 1st down forcing a 2nd and 9

Just continue to use the short passing game I think the middle will be open so the checkdowns will be there.

(01-21-2023, 12:18 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: The Bills have the #30 rush defense in the NFL, according to PFF.

Their overall grade for the season in run defense is a 53.9  Why do they rate so low?  Their TACKLING grade is a dismal 38.9.  It appears that their weakness is to run right at them....something the Bengals do quite often, as opposed to outside runs, but they have had a fairly poor success rate.  The Bills grade/weakness has likely been highlighted by their division.  The AFC East is loaded with teams that are pretty successful rushing the ball (the Jets were as well before losing offensive linemen and Breece Hall.  

This leads me to think that a lot of these games, the Bills just got way up and the opposition had to abandon their rushing attack.

Here is the run/pass mix for the Bills' three loses, by their opponent:

9/25 Miami L 19-21.  Miami ran the ball 17 times and passed it 20 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 1-0.  

11/6 NYJ L  17-20.  Jets ran the ball a whopping 34 times, and passed it just 25 times.  The Bills lost the turnover margin as well, 2-1.

11/13 Minnesota L 33-30  Minnesota ran the ball just 25 times, compared to 50 throws.  The Bills had 4 tunovers to the Vikins 2.  

Despite that last example, where the turnovers clearly killed the Bills, as Minnesota has no semblance of a defense, you can see that when the opposition stayed dedicated to the rushing attack, or at least had BALANCE, it tended to give Minnesota fits.  

Conversely to all these struggles in rush defense, the Bills actually have some really highly rankced pass rushers, even without Von Miller. PFF has them as the 6th highest rated pass rush in the NFL.  

Now, of COURSE I want to see explosive plays.  I want to attack them downfield, but I also hope the Bengals really dedicate themselves to running the ball and staying balanced.  I think if Mixon/Perine have a big game, this is certainly a win.

The problem with dedicating to the run is it i has rarely been effective this year we are around 29th in ypc.. and now with three oline down, I don;t think we should now increase our running attack.. especially when you have Burrow who has performed well this year with getting the ball out and taking what the defense gives you.. it is one and down, no time to start to change what you have been successful with.. yes you have to run the ball hopefully break a couple good runs but in the end you have to trust Burrow and toss it  in the 35 range  tomorrow to win. In our cancelled game we ran the ball 2 times to Mixon with success and passed 6 times with success.. mix in the run but win with the pass tomorrow

(01-21-2023, 01:03 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Depending on the weather... I still see the Bengals coming out heavy in passing formations.  

Which I'm completely fine with... I don't want them getting stuffed on 1st down forcing a 2nd and 9

Just continue to use the short passing game I think the middle will be open so the checkdowns will be there.

I think Mixon is fools gold in this matchup. I dont want 2nd and 9's either, but my gut wrongly says we need Mixon to keep his head down and push for those 3.9 yds and be consistent.  The problem is, he's abysmal blocking and his lack of vision tempts him to cut back at the wrong times. Perine is averaging 4.1 and is a threat to pickup the loose rusher that will be coming consistently. 

How many times did Baltimore shift late and beat that right side of the line? Perine is almost a must just for the sake of the need for a 2nd wave of blocking with Carman out there too. Forget a 6th OL, keep Hurst in and the defense has to stay honest with Perine and Hurst both being threats.

Anything you can do to allow that short to medium game to be open and worst case be a 2nd and 8 is fine with me.  If we get behind, I think we get back in with up tempo sets where Perine is out there and Mixon is on the sidelines.

(01-21-2023, 12:49 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I want to see the run game attitude that we saw when Mixon came out and destroyed Carolina.  Have that same drive....we are going to shove it down their f'n throats.  

That would be terrific!!

(01-21-2023, 01:03 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Depending on the weather... I still see the Bengals coming out heavy in passing formations.  

Which I'm completely fine with... I don't want them getting stuffed on 1st down forcing a 2nd and 9

Just continue to use the short passing game I think the middle will be open so the checkdowns will be there.

I don't like 2nd and 9 either but it is slightly better than 2nd and 10 or 2nd and 13.

Don't see the Bengals deviating far from their passing game, but if the run is working obviously wouldn't mind seeing a little more.

Think Perine will get a more even split with Mixon this game to help Bengals out with protecting Burrow as well.

(01-21-2023, 02:38 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Don't see the Bengals deviating far from their passing game, but if the run is working obviously wouldn't mind seeing a little more.

Think Perine will get a more even split with Mixon this game to help Bengals out with protecting Burrow as well.

Personally, if Perine has one of his angry runs games, I don't see Buffalo being able to keep him under 7 yds per carry

(01-21-2023, 12:42 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I agree that the pressure is all on Buffalo.  They were the underdogs heading to KC last year, but now it is "just beat Cincy THEN you get the big game".  I like your point.  

The pressure is on everyone in the AFC except the Jaguars, as I see it.  The Chiefs can't blow another #1 seed and get humiliated at home again, the Bills have been paper champs all year and have that feel-good narrative they don't want to blow, and the Bengals need to win the SB or they are "taking a step backwards."

The Jaguars are now where we were last year, their QB is having his first "this counts" year thanks to Urban Meyer being the suckiest suck who ever sucked, and they turned it on when the general populace declared them "improved by nationally irrelevant."

(01-21-2023, 12:49 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I want to see the run game attitude that we saw when Mixon came out and destroyed Carolina.  Have that same drive....we are going to shove it down their f'n throats.  

Great thread and this post stood out to me in a great way SHRacer.

This would be the best way to roll into Buffalo tomorrow. That physical AFC North attitude that we are just going to beat you up and
there is nothing you can do about it. The DT's on the Bills are undersized while our guys are big on the OL. Karras is our leader and 
Volson has had a good rookie year, Carman is a good run blocker when he stays set before the snap and doesn't get off balance, I do 
like Scharping and he is a big dude himself. Adeniji is a fine athlete.

The down side is we lost our 3 starters, the upside is these new guys are fresh and not beat up and worn out. 

Use this to our advantage. We still have Ted who has played the Bills a ton in their house. This could be bigger than many think.

(01-21-2023, 12:34 PM)Interceptor Wrote: So the Bills, as professionals, don't know tackling is their weakness. And if they do, they are going to do nothing to rectify it. They will just go into the game as is. Nice.

If it were that easy to fix a weakness, then it would never be a weakness.

I have to agree that if we have success in the run game,we win.That should be the priority for this Offense,but,if it doesn’t work,it doesn’t work,so,then comes plan B.

Long,sustained,scoring drives (TOUCHDOWNS) and a stingy defense are the keys to success against the Bills.I look for Ja’Maar Chase to have a big game.