(01-10-2023, 01:45 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I don't see a DT as a huge need in the draft. I do believe as much as I love Boyd, I love Higgins and Chase more. Looking ahead, I can't see almost 60 million tied up for 3 WR's.

 I can see the Bengals trading or cutting Boyd thus saving 8.9 million (after 1.4 in dead cap) in 2023. I also see us cutting Wilson has not been healthy and saving 2 million in cap space. Then, we have the money to sign Bell and Pratt with the cap space we have entering 2023.

I see us drafting a WR in round 1, 2 or 3 to replace Boyd. I see Irwin as the slot while we get the rookie acclimated to the NFL.

I see a CB or OT as our 1st round pick. But, all could change is Adeniji plays well in Collin's absence.

Agreed on the money side but slot WR could wait. Mims from OU maybe available all the way to the 4th and should be capable of filling that role. Understand where the lack of support for a DT but seemed like our interior pressure was lacking so threw out an option that may be a target in day 1 or round 2.

(01-10-2023, 02:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't see it as a Boyd-or-Higgins decision. It's probably a Higgins-or-Chase decision and that isn't really a choice as the answer always has to be Chase.

Higgins: $25-27m/yr
Chase: $30-35m/yr

Boyd doesn't move the needle enough financially, even if you trade him, to make paying both of them plausible. You said you can't see almost $60m tied up in 3 WRs, but signing both Higgins and Chase will probably average $60m for 2 WRs.

As fans we try to do these salary cap predictions and how it works under tha cap but in reality these NFL teams are very good at manipulating the money to keep cap hits down or at least make them scale with the growing cap. This keeps players not a a certain cap hit number but a percentage of the cap.

Tee will likely be hard to bring back because like Bates he is going to want 60% to 70% of his contract guaranteed and the Bengals dont like to lock their selves into possible future hurting contracts like that.

(01-10-2023, 02:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't see it as a Boyd-or-Higgins decision. It's probably a Higgins-or-Chase decision and that isn't really a choice as the answer always has to be Chase.

Higgins: $25-27m/yr
Chase: $30-35m/yr

Boyd doesn't move the needle enough financially, even if you trade him, to make paying both of them plausible. You said you can't see almost $60m tied up in 3 WRs, but signing both Higgins and Chase will probably average $60m for 2 WRs.

Thats why I theorized we may try to trade Higgins for an early 1st this year since he still has one year left on his rookie deal unlike how Brown and Brown did. I doubt they would do it but if say Johnston made it down to Tenn pick or Houston and offer to trade them for a proven star vs projected star.

It can make sense on both sides too. Houston with a likely new QB gets a reliable proven target to help develop him. Or likewise for Tenn as a mentor to Burks and others while also preventing Houston from hlgetting him. We would work out having the proce controlled contract.

Now that may be too high a pick but a theory in motion.

(12-21-2022, 02:10 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I think Rd 1 is a huge reach. Rd 2 a slight reach. Late 2nd/3rd is his territory. Late 3rd/4th is a bargain. Though we do need DT help.  Carter has shown nada.

Carter was the 95th pick in the draft and had not been playing DT exclusively when at Florida.
No one should expect a pick that late to be a good contributor as a rookie.
At least I don't.

We should be putting more pressure on the other guys who have been in the league longer than Carter:
Hill
Reader
Tupou
Sample
Tufele

Using Day 1 or Day 2 picks because draft picks don't pan out immediately is a way of expending valuable draft capital.
Let Carter have at least one more season of development before writing him off.
You can always supplement the IDL with a cheaper veteran as a stopgap.


Save the Day 1/2 draft pick for another position that has a key guy hitting FA in 2023 or 2024.

Heck, you could let Mixon go and use an early pick on RB then repurpose the $7.1 mill saved into signing some DL depth.
Samaje Perine was basically on the exact same YPC and YPR as Mixon this year.
He isn't quite as shifty or explosive as Mixon, but he has better size and can block.
He can be a stopgap with a young draft pick to make a RBBC.

Mazi Smith DT from Michigan 6'3 330 freak athlete and just stupid strong. I wouldnt mind him at the end of round 2. Someone that can come in and take Tupou's job and be a great addition to a defensive line that competes in the AFC North.

(01-10-2023, 03:04 PM)Synric Wrote: Mazi Smith DT from Michigan 6'3 330 freak athlete and just stupid strong. I wouldnt mind him at the end of round 2. Someone that can come in and take Tupou's job and be a great addition to a defensive line that competes in the AFC North.

I like Mazi Smith as a prospect and then the gun issue came out.

https://theathletic.com/4040934/2022/12/28/mazi-smith-michigan-college-football/

He was a team captain who was allowed to keep playing.  I just don't know how bad this hurts him and his value.

(01-10-2023, 03:04 PM)Synric Wrote: Mazi Smith DT from Michigan 6'3 330 freak athlete and just stupid strong. I wouldnt mind him at the end of round 2. Someone that can come in and take Tupou's job and be a great addition to a defensive line that competes in the AFC North.

Sold. Breathers for Reader and future replacement. Done and done. Also atop of Bruce Feldman's freaks list or so I hear.

(01-10-2023, 03:34 PM)Goalpost Wrote: I like Mazi Smith as a prospect and then the gun issue came out.

https://theathletic.com/4040934/2022/12/28/mazi-smith-michigan-college-football/

He was a team captain who was allowed to keep playing.  I just don't know how bad this hurts him and his value.

Very little. He broke the law but in the most minor of ways that's why it was pleaded down to a fine. He was literally coming from a gun safety course lol. 

(01-10-2023, 03:39 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Sold. Breathers for Reader and future replacement. Done and done. Also atop of Bruce Feldman's freaks list or so I hear.

I didnt know that actually lol. I looked it up and they are saying he ran a sub 7 second 3 cone at 6'3 330lb that is crazy.

(01-10-2023, 02:48 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Thats why I theorized we may try to trade Higgins for an early 1st this year since he still has one year left on his rookie deal unlike how Brown and Brown did. I doubt they would do it but if say Johnston made it down to Tenn pick or Houston and offer to trade them for a proven star vs projected star.

It can make sense on both sides too. Houston with a likely new QB gets a reliable proven target to help develop him. Or likewise for Tenn as a mentor to Burks and others while also preventing Houston from hlgetting him. We would work out having the proce controlled contract.

Now that may be too high a pick but a theory in motion.

Atlanta at 8
Tennessee at 11
Houston at 12
New England at 14
Green Bay at 15

Don't even need to actually get a WR with the pick if it's not a super high one and mid instead. You trade with New England or Green Bay and you can use that pick on Michael Mayer at TE and it still reloads your pass catchers even with Johnston off the board.

(01-10-2023, 04:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Atlanta at 8
Tennessee at 11
Houston at 12
New England at 14
Green Bay at 15

Don't even need to actually get a WR with the pick if it's not a super high one and mid instead. You trade with New England or Green Bay and you can use that pick on Michael Mayer at TE and it still reloads your pass catchers even with Johnston off the board.

I would be so tempted to take Bijan Robinson mid first especially over Mayer.

Bengals fans would hate it talking heads would criticize it all off-season... but then Bijan would step on the field in stripes and like Chase everyone would just say "yea ok that's why". Robinson is special.

(01-10-2023, 04:32 PM)Synric Wrote: I would be so tempted to take Bijan Robinson mid first especially over Mayer.

Bengals fans would hate it talking heads would criticize it all off-season... but then Bijan would step on the field in stripes and like Chase everyone would just say "yea ok that's why". Robinson is special.

As much as I don't like to say this, why not both Mayer AND Robinson. Just trade right past Baltimore and revamp the O.

All I know is Brad would squeal like a girl lol (in a good way. Much love Brad).

(01-10-2023, 05:27 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: As much as I don't like to say this, why not both Mayer AND Robinson. Just trade right past Baltimore and revamp the O.

All I know is Brad would squeal like a girl lol (in a good way. Much love Brad).

Bengals track record of trading up or down in the draft is atrocious. Even that might be too gentle of a word. Lol

Also don't love the idea using multiple draft picks on a running back based simply on positional value. Not to mention that you will have to give up a pretty decent amount to go from 32 to ~20.

(01-10-2023, 05:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals track record of trading up or down in the draft is atrocious. Even that might be too gentle of a word. Lol

Also don't love the idea using multiple draft picks on a running back based simply on positional value. Not to mention that you will have to give up a pretty decent amount to go from 32 to ~20.

Fair enough. So you don't trade up for Robinson but take Gibbs? Still more money to go around for Chase and the D pieces with no Mixon salary.

And we trade, just down usually. In my entire life (33), I can only think of 4 instances in which we traded up. CTB, Anderson, and MJ (there may be more but the biggest ones i can remember).

Now for trading down: Chris Perry, Mixon, Carman (which resulted in 3 players), D. Sample, etc.

(01-10-2023, 07:28 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Fair enough. So you don't trade up for Robinson but take Gibbs? Still more money to go around for Chase and the D pieces with no Mixon salary.

And we trade, just down usually. In my entire life (33), I can only think of 4 instances in which we traded up. CTB, Anderson, and MJ (there may be more but the biggest ones i can remember).

Now for trading down: Chris Perry, Mixon, Carman (which resulted in 3 players), D. Sample, etc.

Can Gibbs handle an NFL starting workload? Solid chance he weighs in at under 200 (he's listed at 200 exactly which seems suspiciously exact), he's never had more than 151 carries in a year, and has only reached 20+ carries 3 times in 31 career games.

I think I would rather have Zach Charbonnett in the 2nd round if we're assuming we will be picking 31st or 32nd in each round.

- - - - -


In the Taylor era I'm assuming by MJ you mean Michael Jordan the guard. We also traded up for Ryan Finley. 

Outside of the Taylor era we also traded up for Ji-Jana Carter, Russell Bodine, Matt Schobel. Trading up has been real rough. Trading down is mostly rough because we always seem to miss out on a better player of that same position...

Trade down and get Mixon, miss out on Dalvin Cook.
Trade down and get Perry, miss out on Steven Jackson.
Trade down and get Zeitler, miss out on David DeCastro.
Sorta traded down and got Price, had to have Bobby Hart and missed out on Frank Ragnow.
Trade down and get Sample, didn't miss out on a great TE, but missed out on Elgton Jenkins and AJ Brown.

Carman trade down only resulted in 2 players, because you were going to have 1, you traded it and got 3, so you added 2. Those two were Tyler Shelvin and D'Ante Smith. Those 3 have combined for a grand total of 34 offense and defensive snaps this year.

The best it's ever worked out for the Bengals is they traded down, still got the same guy they were aiming for in Jessie Bates, and added Malik Jefferson who was a 3rd round pick that lasted 1 year on the team. Neutral is the best trading around has ever seemed to work for the Bengals in the draft. They're just not good at it for whatever reason, probably due to their lack of scouts.

(01-11-2023, 01:11 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Can Gibbs handle an NFL starting workload? Solid chance he weighs in at under 200 (he's listed at 200 exactly which seems suspiciously exact), he's never had more than 151 carries in a year, and has only reached 20+ carries 3 times in 31 career games.

I think I would rather have Zach Charbonnett in the 2nd round if we're assuming we will be picking 31st or 32nd in each round.

- - - - -


In the Taylor era I'm assuming by MJ you mean Michael Jordan the guard. We also traded up for Ryan Finley. 

Outside of the Taylor era we also traded up for Ji-Jana Carter, Russell Bodine, Matt Schobel. Trading up has been real rough. Trading down is mostly rough because we always seem to miss out on a better player of that same position...

Trade down and get Mixon, miss out on Dalvin Cook.
Trade down and get Perry, miss out on Steven Jackson.
Trade down and get Zeitler, miss out on David DeCastro.
Sorta traded down and got Price, had to have Bobby Hart and missed out on Frank Ragnow.
Trade down and get Sample, didn't miss out on a great TE, but missed out on Elgton Jenkins and AJ Brown.

Carman trade down only resulted in 2 players, because you were going to have 1, you traded it and got 3, so you added 2. Those two were Tyler Shelvin and D'Ante Smith. Those 3 have combined for a grand total of 34 offense and defensive snaps this year.

The best it's ever worked out for the Bengals is they traded down, still got the same guy they were aiming for in Jessie Bates, and added Malik Jefferson who was a 3rd round pick that lasted 1 year on the team. Neutral is the best trading around has ever seemed to work for the Bengals in the draft. They're just not good at it for whatever reason, probably due to their lack of scouts.

Mixon was always our pick. 

Sucked about Jackson (that was just right before I started following football). 

The trade down for Price sucks (the trade was for Glenn, not Hart), and Z/DeCastro was relatively a wash. We still wouldn't have paid a 2nd contract.

As to trading down for Carman, without those 2 picks, we likely don't get Money Mac so take that as you will.

(01-10-2023, 02:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't see it as a Boyd-or-Higgins decision. It's probably a Higgins-or-Chase decision and that isn't really a choice as the answer always has to be Chase.

Higgins: $25-27m/yr
Chase: $30-35m/yr

Boyd doesn't move the needle enough financially, even if you trade him, to make paying both of them plausible. You said you can't see almost $60m tied up in 3 WRs, but signing both Higgins and Chase will probably average $60m for 2 WRs.

So....Malik commented on this issue today's episode and stated that resigning Higgins is a top priority and we won't be cutting Mixon. Interesting what path they are going to have to go in order to keep the team competitive with the cap.

(01-10-2023, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Carter was the 95th pick in the draft and had not been playing DT exclusively when at Florida.
No one should expect a pick that late to be a good contributor as a rookie.
At least I don't.

We should be putting more pressure on the other guys who have been in the league longer than Carter:
Hill
Reader
Tupou
Sample
Tufele

Using Day 1 or Day 2 picks because draft picks don't pan out immediately is a way of expending valuable draft capital.
Let Carter have at least one more season of development before writing him off.
You can always supplement the IDL with a cheaper veteran as a stopgap.


Save the Day 1/2 draft pick for another position that has a key guy hitting FA in 2023 or 2024.

Heck, you could let Mixon go and use an early pick on RB then repurpose the $7.1 mill saved into signing some DL depth.
Samaje Perine was basically on the exact same YPC and YPR as Mixon this year.
He isn't quite as shifty or explosive as Mixon, but he has better size and can block.
He can be a stopgap with a young draft pick to make a RBBC.

Moving on from Mixon is the move. He’s not worth his contract, and the money should go to resigning defenders, extending Burrow, or shoring up WR/DT/secondary. Keep Perine, draft another RB, move on.

(01-10-2023, 02:43 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Agreed on the money side but slot WR could wait. Mims from OU maybe available all the way to the 4th and should be capable of filling that role. Understand where the lack of support for a DT but seemed like our interior pressure was lacking so threw out an option that may be a target in day 1 or round 2.

Kiper has Kancey going 11th (I think) in his latest mock. Tip of the hat to the OP for the early call. 

I still think he is unlikely for us. For a couple reasons.

First, we tend to keep 3 DT/NT types and only two "smaller" DT's because we play some 5 man fronts. When we do, we want 2 NT/DT types in there. Reader/Tupou/Tufele. If one is hurt or needs to rotate we need 3 on the roster. That leaves only two smaller DTs. Hill & Carter. On passing downs, it is those two OR 1 + Sample/Ossai/Hubbard moving inside.

Second, if we take Kancey, we either have to change that philosophy or give up on Carter, who has been playing pretty well lately. I guess if we think Kancey has some DE/DT versatility it could work, and he could replace Gunter.

But I just think Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, Hill, Ossai, and Sample are going nowhere. And Carter would make 7. They guys who could get upgraded are Gunter (DE) or Tupou/Tufele (NT/DT).

I guess we could decide to keep 11 DL guys. Again, not impossible. But we would have to REALLY think highly of Kancey to rethink our roster construction or get off Carter after a year.

I just see CB, DE, OT, or a NT type DT as more likely in Rd 1. If we loose Bell or Hurst or Pratt, S/TE/LB come into the picture.

Now, if he is there in Rd2, whole different ballgame.

(01-25-2023, 01:27 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Kiper has Kancey going 11th (I think) in his latest mock. Tip of the hat to the OP for the early call. 

I still think he is unlikely for us. For a couple reasons.

First, we tend to keep 3 DT/NT types and only two "smaller" DT's because we play some 5 man fronts. When we do, we want 2 NT/DT types in there. Reader/Tupou/Tufele. If one is hurt or needs to rotate we need 3 on the roster. That leaves only two smaller DTs. Hill & Carter. On passing downs, it is those two OR 1 + Sample/Ossai/Hubbard moving inside.

Second, if we take Kancey, we either have to change that philosophy or give up on Carter, who has been playing pretty well lately. I guess if we think Kancey has some DE/DT versatility it could work, and he could replace Gunter.

But I just think Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, Hill, Ossai, and Sample are going nowhere. And Carter would make 7. They guys who could get upgraded are Gunter (DE) or Tupou/Tufele (NT/DT).

I guess we could decide to keep 11 DL guys. Again, not impossible. But we would have to REALLY think highly of Kancey to rethink our roster construction or get off Carter after a year.

I just see CB, DE, OT, or a NT type DT as more likely in Rd 1. If we loose Bell or Hurst or Pratt, S/TE/LB come into the picture.

Now, if he is there in Rd2, whole different ballgame.

1. Thanks for the rep and shout out. Appreciate it.

2. When I came up with this idea, this was right before or right as Carter was performing.

3. Agree that pick 1 will be CB, DE or OT. Only issue could be that CBs likely will be picked over, same with OTs unless Wright falls. Edge seems like it'll be of value but with this edge class, you may be able to wait until 2. Maybe someone falls in love with a prospect and we trade down for an early 4th or additional picks next year?