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Last week, Brett Kollman posted his evaluation of the defensive tackles in this draft class and I just got around to watching it today.
He ranks them into 5 tiers and his tiers are, roughly, outlined as Tier 1 = elite, top 10 talent, Tier 2 = mid 1st round talent, Tier 3 = late 1st to early day 2 talent, Tier 4 = Late day 2 to mid day 3 talent, Tier 5 = late day 3 talent / Wild cards (his big example of a wild card is Jalen Redmond, who was a 5 star edge prospect coming into college who gained 60 lbs during college and became a DT, but suffered from several injuries during this transition inside and is very raw, but has the upside of a Calijah Kancey level pass rusher).
He only tiered players who he had a draftable grade for, so if he didn't mention them, he believes they are undrafted free agent tier.
He didn't say who ranked higher within the tiers, so I assume he just has similar grades for them all within a given tier.
Tier 1: Jalen Carter
Tier 2: Calijah Kancey, Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith
Tier 3: Adetomiwa Adeboware, Jerrod Clark, Kobie Turner, Byron Young (Alabama), Bryan Bresee, Gervon Dexter Jr
Tier 4: Jaquelin Roy, Nesta Jade Silvera, Moro Ojomo, Siaki Ika, Keondre Coburn
Tier 5: Jalen Redmond, Brodric Martin, Zacch Pickens, Cameron Young
https://youtu.be/8cvfA-ZXWRI?t=392
This is the timestamp for the Tier 2 discussion, which I find to be the most interesting because I think we're most likely to target someone in Tier 2 in round 1 if the draft board falls a certain way and guys like Mayer, Kincaid, Wright, Forbes aren't there.
He likes all three of these guys, but he basically puts them on a sliding scale from pass rusher to run stopper.
Kancey he calls a pure pass rusher who will get bullied in the run game and wouldn't stand up to double teams at DT in the run game. His suggestion is to not play him at 3T for run plays (which are 1st and 10, 2nd and short etc). He thinks Kancey is likely to kick out to DE during run plays and will move inside on passing downs. His comparison in role is a Michael Bennett or Justin Tuck. Base DE who moves inside to rush the passer.
Mazi Smith is the opposite. He thinks he will likely always be in on early downs, but will play very little 3rd down unless it's 3rd and short. He calls him the best run defender in thsi entire class other than Jalen Carter. His comparison is DJ Reader but without the pass rush (which he says Reader didn't have coming out of college either).
Then Keeanu Benton he says is right between the two. He isn't as good of a pass rusher as Kancey and he isn't as good of a run stopper as Mazi Smith, but he is much better than the two respective tackles in the other spectrum. He could play 3T, 5T, 2I or even nose in certain situations. His comparison is Cameron Heyward. A guy who can move along the line depending on down, distance, formation and expected play type. Brett says he thinks Benton, behind Carter, is probably the most likely DT in this class to play all 3 downs from day 1, making him arguably the "most valuable player in this tier." Teams love it when they don't have to take their first round picks off the field. He thinks Benton will go anywhere from Mid first to Mid second round, depending on how many DTs are taken early on.
With that kind of endorsement from one of the hardest working people in draft media (in my opinion), how would you feel if the Bengals drafted Benton at 28?
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I would be alright with Benton at #28, as you can't go wrong with taking the BPA. Even if your team is currently well stocked at that position, it is a premium position, and makes your current depth in that position group valuable trade pieces.
With that said, I truly feel like the team is going to go non-WR offensive weapon or Secondary with that #28 pick. I just get a sense that BPA for the Bengals slides to BPA that fills a need or strategy when that situation arises.
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(04-21-2023, 03:52 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Last week, Brett Kollman posted his evaluation of the defensive tackles in this draft class and I just got around to watching it today.
He ranks them into 5 tiers and his tiers are, roughly, outlined as Tier 1 = elite, top 10 talent, Tier 2 = mid 1st round talent, Tier 3 = late 1st to early day 2 talent, Tier 4 = Late day 2 to mid day 3 talent, Tier 5 = late day 3 talent / Wild cards (his big example of a wild card is Jalen Redmond, who was a 5 star edge prospect coming into college who gained 60 lbs during college and became a DT, but suffered from several injuries during this transition inside and is very raw, but has the upside of a Calijah Kancey level pass rusher).
He only tiered players who he had a draftable grade for, so if he didn't mention them, he believes they are undrafted free agent tier.
He didn't say who ranked higher within the tiers, so I assume he just has similar grades for them all within a given tier.
Tier 1: Jalen Carter
Tier 2: Calijah Kancey, Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith
Tier 3: Adetomiwa Adeboware, Jerrod Clark, Kobie Turner, Byron Young (Alabama), Bryan Bresee, Gervon Dexter Jr
Tier 4: Jaquelin Roy, Nesta Jade Silvera, Moro Ojomo, Siaki Ika, Keondre Coburn
Tier 5: Jalen Redmond, Brodric Martin, Zacch Pickens, Cameron Young
https://youtu.be/8cvfA-ZXWRI?t=392
This is the timestamp for the Tier 2 discussion, which I find to be the most interesting because I think we're most likely to target someone in Tier 2 in round 1 if the draft board falls a certain way and guys like Mayer, Kincaid, Wright, Forbes aren't there.
He likes all three of these guys, but he basically puts them on a sliding scale from pass rusher to run stopper.
Kancey he calls a pure pass rusher who will get bullied in the run game and wouldn't stand up to double teams at DT in the run game. His suggestion is to not play him at 3T for run plays (which are 1st and 10, 2nd and short etc). He thinks Kancey is likely to kick out to DE during run plays and will move inside on passing downs. His comparison in role is a Michael Bennett or Justin Tuck. Base DE who moves inside to rush the passer.
Mazi Smith is the opposite. He thinks he will likely always be in on early downs, but will play very little 3rd down unless it's 3rd and short. He calls him the best run defender in thsi entire class other than Jalen Carter. His comparison is DJ Reader but without the pass rush (which he says Reader didn't have coming out of college either).
Then Keeanu Benton he says is right between the two. He isn't as good of a pass rusher as Kancey and he isn't as good of a run stopper as Mazi Smith, but he is much better than the two respective tackles in the other spectrum. He could play 3T, 5T, 2I or even nose in certain situations. His comparison is Cameron Heyward. A guy who can move along the line depending on down, distance, formation and expected play type. Brett says he thinks Benton, behind Carter, is probably the most likely DT in this class to play all 3 downs from day 1, making him arguably the "most valuable player in this tier." Teams love it when they don't have to take their first round picks off the field. He thinks Benton will go anywhere from Mid first to Mid second round, depending on how many DTs are taken early on.
With that kind of endorsement from one of the hardest working people in draft media (in my opinion), how would you feel if the Bengals drafted Benton at 28?
Nice post CJD. Didn't know Benton was getting this much play, I thought he should be a thought for us in the 2nd round if we don't
extend DJ after this season, but now, if this is the case, I would be fine with Benton at 28 if he is THAT versatile. Definitely something
we need to think about with this being DJ's last season under contract. Love Mazi Smith as a DJ replacement, but like he says, he isn't
THAT good of a pass rusher.
Kancey's short arms and the fact he cannot play on run downs takes him out of my thoughts in the first.
I think I am leaning more Corner as we lead up to the Draft at 28 and Forbes will be the pick and I would be happy with it. Darnell
Washington might fall to 60 for all we know because he wasn't a pass catcher much at Georgia even if he was behind the best. If this
happens I would like DW in the 2nd and look for a DT in the 3rd or a RB. Surprised he has Pickens ranked that low, I like that guy.
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(04-21-2023, 04:38 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice post CJD. Didn't know Benton was getting this much play, I thought he should be a thought for us in the 2nd round if we don't
extend DJ after this season, but now, if this is the case, I would be fine with Benton at 28 if he is THAT versatile. Definitely something
we need to think about with this being DJ's last season under contract. Love Mazi Smith as a DJ replacement, but like he says, he isn't
THAT good of a pass rusher.
Kancey's short arms and the fact he cannot play on run downs takes him out of my thoughts in the first.
I think I am leaning more Corner as we lead up to the Draft at 28 and Forbes will be the pick and I would be happy with it. Darnell
Washington might fall to 60 for all we know because he wasn't a pass catcher much at Georgia even if he was behind the best. If this
happens I would like DW in the 2nd and look for a DT in the 3rd or a RB. Surprised he has Pickens ranked that low, I like that guy.
If you watch his section on Pickens, he loves him as an interior pass rusher, HATES him as a run stopper. Basically, he said Pickens will be a 3rd down DT until he learns to hold up against the run. He says if all you're looking for is that extra juice on obvious passing downs, Pickens is a great selection on day 3.
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(04-21-2023, 04:11 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I would be alright with Benton at #28, as you can't go wrong with taking the BPA. Even if your team is currently well stocked at that position, it is a premium position, and makes your current depth in that position group valuable trade pieces.
With that said, I truly feel like the team is going to go non-WR offensive weapon or Secondary with that #28 pick. I just get a sense that BPA for the Bengals slides to BPA that fills a need or strategy when that situation arises.
I get the same feeling.
Like, it's 6 days from the draft and if you asked me to bet on which player I think will be selected at 28, I'd say Emmanuel Forbes. The Bengals have shown a ton of interest in him, both at the combine and in top 30 visits. He matches Bengals' historical trends with CB in the first round, he perfectly fits a need as we just lost like 60% of our INTs when Bates and Bell left. And his biggest weakness, his weight, wasn't blatantly obvious on tape (he still was aggressive in run fits and is a good tackler).
The only question is, will other teams agree and take him before our pick and, if they do, what next? Do you go to the next tier of CB and take DJ Turner or Juju Brents?
Or do you go to TE and take Darnell Washington? Because indications are that Mayer will drop to 26 at worst and Kincaid has injury issues and didn't work out, which typically takes him off many teams' first round board (see Andrew Booth last year).
Or do you go RB? Bijan probably isn't there, but do we take Gibbs? Is that a good investment? Or do we wait for the 2nd for Charbonnett or the 3rd/4th for Roschon Johnson/Tyjae Spears? Or do you wait even longer and try for an Eric Gray in the 5th? Lots of RB depth this year.
I think there are a lot of good ways for this team to go. I personally hope we avoid TE in the first just because we clearly don't value it enough to justify the pick. The last 3 years, we've spent less than 6M on the position, which took us out of the running for a few great TEs in free agency like Gesicki and Schultz. Why spend a 1st round pick on a position that you don't even think is worth 6M dollars?).
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(04-21-2023, 05:53 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I get the same feeling.
Like, it's 6 days from the draft and if you asked me to bet on which player I think will be selected at 28, I'd say Emmanuel Forbes. The Bengals have shown a ton of interest in him, both at the combine and in top 30 visits. He matches Bengals' historical trends with CB in the first round, he perfectly fits a need as we just lost like 60% of our INTs when Bates and Bell left. And his biggest weakness, his weight, wasn't blatantly obvious on tape (he still was aggressive in run fits and is a good tackler).
The only question is, will other teams agree and take him before our pick and, if they do, what next? Do you go to the next tier of CB and take DJ Turner or Juju Brents?
Or do you go to TE and take Darnell Washington? Because indications are that Mayer will drop to 26 at worst and Kincaid has injury issues and didn't work out, which typically takes him off many teams' first round board (see Andrew Booth last year).
Or do you go RB? Bijan probably isn't there, but do we take Gibbs? Is that a good investment? Or do we wait for the 2nd for Charbonnett or the 3rd/4th for Roschon Johnson/Tyjae Spears? Or do you wait even longer and try for an Eric Gray in the 5th? Lots of RB depth this year.
I think there are a lot of good ways for this team to go. I personally hope we avoid TE in the first just because we clearly don't value it enough to justify the pick. The last 3 years, we've spent less than 6M on the position, which took us out of the running for a few great TEs in free agency like Gesicki and Schultz. Why spend a 1st round pick on a position that you don't even think is worth 6M dollars?).
The main reason that I could see the Bengals going TE, and Darnell Washington specifically, is because they want to add another dimension to the offense. Imagine a situation where Tee lines up at X, Boyd and Chase line up in double slot, and Washington lines up inline on the Right. You could have twin towers in Higgins and Washington on each sideline to win battles for contested catches, and Chase and Boyd creating mismatches from hell in the middle of the field. That is how Zac and company can one up teams like the Chiefs for AFC and perhaps NFL supremacy.
Edit: With nearly 20% of completions going to the TE position, I could see the Bengals wanting to capitalize with Washington's contested catch ability to increase the efficiency of the throws to that position.
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I like Benton in certain aspects. I see him as a light nose tackle who offers little in pass rush presence. I think #28 would be a reach for him. If I were picking between him and Mazi Smith at #28 I would have to lean toward Smith. Smith is far more explosive off of the ball and I think to be a decent pass rusher Smith just needs some technique refinement and coaching. I think the quickness and power are there for Smith to be a real pocket disruption from the nose position.
Kancey is a three technique all of the way and I don't think you can make a comparison to the other two DTs as you would be looking for them to fill completely different roles.
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(04-21-2023, 06:07 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The main reason that I could see the Bengals going TE, and Darnell Washington specifically, is because they want to add another dimension to the offense. Imagine a situation where Tee lines up at X, Boyd and Chase line up in double slot, and Washington lines up inline on the Right. You could have twin towers in Higgins and Washington on each sideline to win battles for contested catches, and Chase and Boyd creating mismatches from hell in the middle of the field. That is how Zac and company can one up teams like the Chiefs for AFC and perhaps NFL supremacy.
Edit: With nearly 20% of completions going to the TE position, I could see the Bengals wanting to capitalize with Washington's contested catch ability to increase the efficiency of the throws to that position.
Not to derail this thread but Washington adds an aspect to the offense that I don't believe some people are considering in that you can run him out with a heavy package where most teams are going to run out a true offensive lineman to fill that sixth lineman spot. You can run Washington out there and the defense must account for him as a receiver in the heavy package which means they can not dedicate as many personnel to solely stopping the run. He truly can create real problems for a defense and I feel like the surface of his receiving ability is just beginning to be scratched.
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(04-21-2023, 07:05 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Not to derail this thread but Washington adds an aspect to the offense that I don't believe some people are considering in that you can run him out with a heavy package where most teams are going to run out a true offensive lineman to fill that sixth lineman spot. You can run Washington out there and the defense must account for him as a receiver in the heavy package which means they can not dedicate as many personnel to solely stopping the run. He truly can create real problems for a defense and I feel like the surface of his receiving ability is just beginning to be scratched.
It's not a surprise that I've had him in most every one of my mock drafts this season. If it weren't for having to share the field with Bowers, I really feel like Washington would be talked about as a top 15 prospect.
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(04-21-2023, 07:05 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Not to derail this thread but Washington adds an aspect to the offense that I don't believe some people are considering in that you can run him out with a heavy package where most teams are going to run out a true offensive lineman to fill that sixth lineman spot. You can run Washington out there and the defense must account for him as a receiver in the heavy package which means they can not dedicate as many personnel to solely stopping the run. He truly can create real problems for a defense and I feel like the surface of his receiving ability is just beginning to be scratched.
(04-21-2023, 07:09 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's not a surprise that I've had him in most every one of my mock drafts this season. If it weren't for having to share the field with Bowers, I really feel like Washington would be talked about as a top 15 prospect.
Washington is an interesting player, but at 28? I dont see it. He has a zero route tree. His game speed doesnt come close to his combine performance. Not saying I wouldnt want him on the team as he is a road grading blocker and I would like to watch his development, but many are wishing or hoping he will become something he has never been. The best rule of thumb is to judge how a player played in college and expect that is what you are getting. A block-only TE doesn't scream 1st Rd value.
I'm not sure he is even TE3 in this draft class depending on who is drafting....
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(04-21-2023, 08:38 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Washington is an interesting player, but at 28? I dont see it. He has a zero route tree. His game speed doesnt come close to his combine performance. Not saying I wouldnt want him on the team as he is a road grading blocker and I would like to watch his development, but many are wishing or hoping he will become something he has never been. The best rule of thumb is to judge how a player played in college and expect that is what you are getting. A block-only TE doesn't scream 1st Rd value.
I'm not sure he is even TE3 in this draft class depending on who is drafting....
Some of what you are posting here lately is just silly. So can you explain the NFL careers of Tom Brady or maybe James Harrison? You obviously are unwilling or unable to apply perspective to the situation with Darnell Washington. You do understand that they as well have Brock Bowers correct? If it were not for Bowers then Washington is easily TE1 for the Bulldogs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaYuyqaA-TA
The very first play does not scream blocking only TE to me what about you? :28 that is a long ways down field to be blocking. 1:31 yeah he does struggle to catch doesn't he? 1:55 Some hands for a blocker wouldn't you say? 2:45 sure playing slow and struggling to catch there wasn't he?
Washington is a natural pass catcher and he has outstanding hands. He plays in a two TE set with a guy who is touted as a smaller Gronk. However, when given his opportunities he produced at a high level. A better rule of thumb is to attempt to forecast future progression based off of displayed abilities and how they project to the next level. Hate to break this to you but the draft is about projecting where a player has the potential to end up not where he is starting.
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(04-21-2023, 09:46 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Some of what you are posting here lately is just silly. So can you explain the NFL careers of Tom Brady or maybe James Harrison? You obviously are unwilling or unable to apply perspective to the situation with Darnell Washington. You do understand that they as well have Brock Bowers correct? If it were not for Bowers then Washington is easily TE1 for the Bulldogs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaYuyqaA-TA
The very first play does not scream blocking only TE to me what about you? :28 that is a long ways down field to be blocking. 1:31 yeah he does struggle to catch doesn't he? 1:55 Some hands for a blocker wouldn't you say? 2:45 sure playing slow and struggling to catch there wasn't he?
Washington is a natural pass catcher and he has outstanding hands. He plays in a two TE set with a guy who is touted as a smaller Gronk. However, when given his opportunities he produced at a high level. A better rule of thumb is to attempt to forecast future progression based off of displayed abilities and how they project to the next level. Hate to break this to you but the draft is about projecting where a player has the potential to end up not where he is starting.
You really do not want to do this with your limited knowledge base. But it's your feelings so...
Comparing once in a generation players to a hopeful draft pick is amateurish at best.
Thanks for the video, it helps make my point:
The very first play is the route he ran 80% of the time for the few 40 receptions he had in his entire college career, a slip route coming off a block (fake slip on this play) . Didn't have to beat a defender.
The :28 second play, he ran a straight line, his only other route. Didn't have to beat a defender.
1:55, again a vertical on the wheel route, could not get separation won the jump ball. Didn't beat a defender.
2:45, another seam, straight line route, didn't have to beat a defender.
His game speed is not remotely close to his combine numbers. I would not be shocked if the Bengals took LaPorta over Washington. I do not dislike the kid, I love his blocking and think he would be fun to watch and develop, but Im not for projects in Rd 1.
Im not the only one that understands this.
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(04-21-2023, 10:42 PM)casear2727 Wrote: You really do not want to do this with your limited knowledge base. But it's your feelings so...
Comparing once in a generation players to a hopeful draft pick is amateurish at best.
Thanks for the video, it helps make my point:
The very first play is the route he ran 80% of the time for the few 40 receptions he had in his entire college career, a slip route coming off a block (fake slip on this play) . Didn't have to beat a defender.
The :28 second play, he ran a straight line, his only other route. Didn't have to beat a defender.
1:55, again a vertical on the wheel route, could not get separation won the jump ball. Didn't beat a defender.
2:45, another seam, straight line route, didn't have to beat a defender.
His game speed is not remotely close to his combine numbers. I would not be shocked if the Bengals took LaPorta over Washington. I do not dislike the kid, I love his blocking and think he would be fun to watch and develop, but Im not for projects in Rd 1.
Im not the only one that understands this.
So the only point at which a receiver beats a defender is if they have been able to obtain separation on a route? Is this your premise? So when a QB puts a 50/50 ball up to the receiver and the receiver uses his body to shield the defender and/or high points the ball to make the contested catch are not wins for the receiver?
If the receiver is running the same route 80% of the time and it is still successful then I would have them running it 90% of the time especially when it results in chunk plays such as this. So how is it if he plays slow that he continues to be successful in these straight line routes? So I guess I can be safe in assuming that finding the soft spot in the zone and making yourself available to the QB is not winning under your criteria as well which is something that Washington as well did for the Bulldog offense.
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(04-21-2023, 11:53 PM)OSUfan Wrote: So the only point at which a receiver beats a defender is if they have been able to obtain separation on a route? Is this your premise? So when a QB puts a 50/50 ball up to the receiver and the receiver uses his body to shield the defender and/or high points the ball to make the contested catch are not wins for the receiver?
If the receiver is running the same route 80% of the time and it is still successful then I would have them running it 90% of the time especially when it results in chunk plays such as this. So how is it if he plays slow that he continues to be successful in these straight line routes? So I guess I can be safe in assuming that finding the soft spot in the zone and making yourself available to the QB is not winning under your criteria as well which is something that Washington as well did for the Bulldog offense.
Getting 50/50 balls is outstanding. But if you don't understand separation from a defender during a pass route then we might as well stop the discussion.
Slipping off of a block is not running a route. A vertical is not a route nor is it understanding zone soft spots. He has a zero route tree, he runs like Frankenstein in space. You are making statements with what you project him to be. He hasn't shown it. And everything he has done in college will be more difficult in the NFL. If Washington could do everything that you say he can in his rookie year the kid would be long gone before 28.
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(04-22-2023, 12:57 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Getting 50/50 balls is outstanding. But if you don't understand separation from a defender during a pass route then we might as well stop the discussion.
Slipping off of a block is not running a route. A vertical is not a route nor is it understanding zone soft spots. He has a zero route tree, he runs like Frankenstein in space. You are making statements with what you project him to be. He hasn't shown it. And everything he has done in college will be more difficult in the NFL. If Washington could do everything that you say he can in his rookie year the kid would be long gone before 28.
I absolutely understand separation. I also understand how important separation can be to the success for some receivers. I also understand that some receivers and/or TEs may not have the quick twitch ability that allows them to cut or break that results in separation from a defender. I also understand that this is not the only way that a receiver and/or TE can win in the receiving game which is why this does not seem to bother me as much as it obviously concerns you.
Just as you have posted reports from "experts" that support your statements there are many reports as well that do not show the level of concern about the route tree of Washington that you appear to have. There are articles that report that it is rather common for TEs to have limited route trees.
The draft is virtually completely about projection. It is obvious that you and I disagree about a lot so I an going to cease the conversation. Frankly I am surprised with your vast wisdom of the game that NFL teams are not beating down the door for your services.
However, as we part company here is some reading on separation that you may find interesting considering that receivers/TEs such as Chase, Higgins, and Pitts all rank extremely low on separation from defenders in the NFL:
https://www.dynastynerds.com/wr-separation-a-little-goes-a-long-way/
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(04-22-2023, 10:23 AM)OSUfan Wrote: I absolutely understand separation. I also understand how important separation can be to the success for some receivers. I also understand that some receivers and/or TEs may not have the quick twitch ability that allows them to cut or break that results in separation from a defender. I also understand that this is not the only way that a receiver and/or TE can win in the receiving game which is why this does not seem to bother me as much as it obviously concerns you.
Just as you have posted reports from "experts" that support your statements there are many reports as well that do not show the level of concern about the route tree of Washington that you appear to have. There are articles that report that it is rather common for TEs to have limited route trees.
The draft is virtually completely about projection. It is obvious that you and I disagree about a lot so I an going to cease the conversation. Frankly I am surprised with your vast wisdom of the game that NFL teams are not beating down the door for your services.
However, as we part company here is some reading on separation that you may find interesting considering that receivers/TEs such as Chase, Higgins, and Pitts all rank extremely low on separation from defenders in the NFL:
https://www.dynastynerds.com/wr-separation-a-little-goes-a-long-way/
I see that you read and watch only what you want to. A very common comment regarding Washington is that he runs like Frankenstein in the open field. He does not have the production to warrant a 1st round pick in my opinion, which means nothing, but seems to be the consensus (your favorite word).
I'd like to have him but Im not interested in a low value postion that is also a project.
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