(07-31-2023, 11:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Reds also need a long relief guy. Not sure if that's an internal or external addition, but the Reds just used 4 guys in the bullpen to throw 3.2 innings, and the Cubs used 1 guy to throw 3.2 innings. That might show up big in game 3 or 4 of this series.

One of the many reasons I hate having David Bell as manager of the Reds. His bullpen use was even worse before the DH was added to take away his double switch addiction. They are so concerned about ''third time through the order'' . . . how about letting someone from the pen go ONE time through the order before yanking them.

I was very impressed with Assad. His tailing fastball was messing up several of the Reds hitters.

(07-31-2023, 06:36 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I've been suggesting that the Reds might decide to stay the course and ride it out until Greene gets back. Williamson has a 4.48 ERA. That's damn good for a fifth starter with half of his starts at GABP. Acquiring any starter better than him is going to cost too much in a seller's market and Lodolo is coming back later to probably push Williamson to the pen.

Lively has been the pleasant surprise. That's been a rare good signing from the scrap heap that the Reds have been known to dig through(Tim Adleman, Scott Feldman, Matt Harvey).

Yes, you've been suggesting that since June, if not before.
For me, I wanted to really see how these pitchers did after the hardest month of the season, and they have done rather well.
Ashcraft returning to form is huge.
Abbott and Williamson - I'm always nervous with rookie pitchers getting figured out sooner than later, making a false positive essentially and not making a move because of it.
Agree on Lively, he's been a welcome addition. With him hurt earlier this year though, I wasn't sure if/how he'd bounce back.

If we REALLY want to feel confident though with the Reds pushing deep into the postseason, I personally would feel better if they got another SP like Eduardo Rodriguez or someone of the like. That's just better insurance and would allow for one of the young guys to become a long reliever and spot starter to finish out the season.

Verlander to Astros
Lorenzen to Phillies
Dodgers reportedly heavily in on Eduardo Rodriguez but no deal yet
Jack Flaherty and Dylan Cease still not traded yet

(08-01-2023, 05:28 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Verlander to Astros
Lorenzen to Phillies
Dodgers reportedly heavily in on Eduardo Rodriguez but no deal yet
Jack Flaherty and Dylan Cease still not traded yet

Dodgers had a deal in place for Rodriguez but he has a no trade clause which he invoked.

Doesn't appear the Reds made any other trades.

So the details on the Verlander trade were hashed out on MLB network.

The Mets kicked in a ton of money such that Houston will only owe Verlander 29 million total over the next 2 1/3 years. Quite a bargain for Houston.

But....

Houston gave up it's number 1 overall prospect as well as its 4th rated prospect. That's like the Reds giving up Marte and Collier as an example.

Now that the TD has passed, I can say I’m not disappointed whatsoever. I’m glad we didn’t give up future assets for a two-month rental SP who would either opt out at the end of the year (ERod), a 41-year old with an albatross contract replaces Votto’s contract with Verlander), a former Red who has never thrown THIS many innings before (Lorenzen) or sell the proverbial farm for Cease. I know some fans wanted more than Moll, but the prices were (and usually always are) too high for bruised fruit. The kids and The Chin have gotten us this far, may as well ride it out and see what we need going into the offseason.

Now, if they don’t spend $$$ this offseason I will be very, VERY disappointed. Pay Votto his 8million to retire. Spend on a MOR pitcher, preferably a RHP, we already have Abbot, Williamson, and Lodolo(?). Adding another righty should be a priority. If no FA RH SP is signed, then go the trade route. Prices won’t be as high as they are in-season and maybe we can hammer out a deal with someone or get into a multi-team trade?

(08-02-2023, 11:40 AM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Now that the TD has passed, I can say I’m not disappointed whatsoever. I’m glad we didn’t give up future assets for a two-month rental SP who would either opt out at the end of the year (ERod), a 41-year old with an albatross contract replaces Votto’s contract with Verlander), a former Red who has never thrown THIS many innings before (Lorenzen) or sell the proverbial farm for Cease. I know some fans wanted more than Moll, but the prices were (and usually always are) too high for bruised fruit. The kids and The Chin have gotten us this far, may as well ride it out and see what we need going into the offseason.

Now, if they don’t spend $$$ this offseason I will be very, VERY disappointed. Pay Votto his 8million to retire. Spend on a MOR pitcher, preferably a RHP, we already have Abbot, Williamson, and Lodolo(?). Adding another righty should be a priority. If no FA RH SP is signed, then go the trade route. Prices won’t be as high as they are in-season and maybe we can hammer out a deal with someone or get into a multi-team trade?

I get wanting to see how the young guys (mainly pitchers at this point) develop through the rest of this year and not necessarily care too much if they get to the postseason or not.
With that said, you don't know how the next couple years will go, and this really could have been your best chance.
Would hate to look back and regret not making a move after all.

Here's to hoping they at least make a move in the offseason if there's an opportunity to improve the rotation and/or bullpen.
I especially want to see how Greene and Lodolo factor into the rotation once they're back.
Ideally, the rotation is Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott, Lodolo, and Williamson to start next year, then have Connor Phillips planned as a long reliever if he's not already pushing someone for one of the starting spots.

(08-02-2023, 04:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I get wanting to see how the young guys (mainly pitchers at this point) develop through the rest of this year and not necessarily care too much if they get to the postseason or not.
With that said, you don't know how the next couple years will go, and this really could have been your best chance.
Would hate to look back and regret not making a move after all.

Here's to hoping they at least make a move in the offseason if there's an opportunity to improve the rotation and/or bullpen.
I especially want to see how Greene and Lodolo factor into the rotation once they're back.
Ideally, the rotation is Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott, Lodolo, and Williamson to start next year, then have Connor Phillips planned as a long reliever if he's not already pushing someone for one of the starting spots.

While we have played top teams well, I just don’t see us winning the WS this year. We could shock someone and advance but I don’t see us beating teams like ATL or HOU or TEX (and we all know how we play against MIL if they make it in).To me, that wasn’t worth mortgaging the future during a seller’s market trade-season. Now, if they want to package a top prospect (or a rostered MLB guy for that matter) with some mids this offseason for another arm or a bonafide power bat, then go for it!

(08-02-2023, 04:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I get wanting to see how the young guys (mainly pitchers at this point) develop through the rest of this year and not necessarily care too much if they get to the postseason or not.
With that said, you don't know how the next couple years will go, and this really could have been your best chance.
Would hate to look back and regret not making a move after all.

Here's to hoping they at least make a move in the offseason if there's an opportunity to improve the rotation and/or bullpen.
I especially want to see how Greene and Lodolo factor into the rotation once they're back.
Ideally, the rotation is Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott, Lodolo, and Williamson to start next year, then have Connor Phillips planned as a long reliever if he's not already pushing someone for one of the starting spots.

The offseason approach will be interesting.

They may not need a ton, but they have needs, regardless.  They also have a laughable payroll once Votto and Moose drop off the books.

If we get another winter of crying poor and bitching about payroll and resources, then there's no hope for this ownership group.  

(08-06-2023, 09:39 PM)samhain Wrote: The offseason approach will be interesting.

They may not need a ton, but they have needs, regardless.  They also have a laughable payroll once Votto and Moose drop off the books.

If we get another winter of crying poor and bitching about payroll and resources, then there's no hope for this ownership group.  

For sure

Greene it seems is going to be at least decent as well as Ashcraft. I believe Abbott may be as well but that's still to be determined. Who knows what Lodolo will be coming off injury? Lively may be a decent #5? 

Point is I hope they go out and get a true top shelf starter this offseason. If they really plan on a run next year that is?

(08-06-2023, 09:39 PM)samhain Wrote: The offseason approach will be interesting.

They may not need a ton, but they have needs, regardless.  They also have a laughable payroll once Votto and Moose drop off the books.

If we get another winter of crying poor and bitching about payroll and resources, then there's no hope for this ownership group.  

Yep, Reds currently have $95 mill payroll, according to Spotrac.
Their payroll is basically near the minimum next year other than Votto's $20 mill. Next year is Votto's final year, but I believe it's a club option.
Ya gotta wonder if the Reds will actually pick up the option and let Votto play out his full contract or if this year is basically his final year.
I would think (hope?) this is Votto's last year and they will repurpose some money to go toward some pitching.

(08-06-2023, 09:39 PM)samhain Wrote: The offseason approach will be interesting.

They may not need a ton, but they have needs, regardless.  They also have a laughable payroll once Votto and Moose drop off the books.

If we get another winter of crying poor and bitching about payroll and resources, then there's no hope for this ownership group.  

We're on year 18 of this ownership group. They have 0 postseason series wins and only 5 winning seasons (2 of which were 82-80 and 31-29) out of the 17 completed so far. Squandered multiple windows, fumbled multiple rebuilds.

Walt Jocketty is still a voice in the front office because he was friends with our owner in St Louis. Our manager is the son of another front office guy and just got an extension despite not being a winner. For a 5 years our GM was the son of one of the owners.

This ownership group stinks. That was never a question. Lol. But "where are you going to go?"

(08-07-2023, 04:02 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep, Reds currently have $95 mill payroll, according to Spotrac.
Their payroll is basically near the minimum next year other than Votto's $20 mill. Next year is Votto's final year, but I believe it's a club option.
Ya gotta wonder if the Reds will actually pick up the option and let Votto play out his full contract or if this year is basically his final year.
I would think (hope?) this is Votto's last year and they will repurpose some money to go toward some pitching.

That would be nice, but this is the same team that gave away Sonny Gray, Wade Miley, and Raisel Iglesias for basically nothing to save money the season after almost making the playoffs but falling short because of a late season collapse.

Think the money is just going to go into their coffers.


- - - - -
I need to stop talking Reds today. Just a negativity spiral. Lol

The Phillies traded a non-Top 100 batter in A+ who has no power for Michael Lorenzen and in 2 starts so far he's had a 8 innings 2 runs start and a No Hitter.

(08-10-2023, 08:10 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Phillies traded a non-Top 100 batter in A+ who has no power for Michael Lorenzen and in 2 starts so far he's had a 8 innings 2 runs start and a No Hitter.

Buying rentals at the deadline is risky business. Despite the struggles we've had coming out of the trade deadline, I am still glad we didn't buy. We have 5 years ahead of us with all these young guys before we even need to pay for them. 

Hao-Yu Lee was the Phillies' 8th ranked prospect with a FV of 50. I think "no power" is a bit of an exaggeration. He has 15 HRs in 160 career games. That seems about average to me. Especially since several stops in the minors tend to be pitchers' ballparks more so than hitters parks like GABP.

The general equivalent from our system would have been maybe Sal Stewart. He's our 7th ranked prospect, 19 years old in A+, 2nd round pick in 2022. Also plays on the infield. 10 HR in 98 games, similar batting averages etc.

Would it have been worth it to trade Sal Stewart for 2 months of Michael Lorenzen? It's hard to say.

The team that has played the last 10 games does not look like they're one starting pitcher away from the World Series or even a playoff win. 

The last thing you want to do is be the LA Angels, who are on the fringe of the playoff picture, buy at the deadline and then lose 7 straight, essentially playing themselves out of playoff contention. Granted, they play in a much more competitive division than we do.

But I bet they are kicking themselves for not trading Ohtani right now. They could have set themselves up very nicely for the future. Instead, they are heading for losing him for free and still missing the playoffs.

Our situation is obviously not that dire, but if we did something like trade Marte (+ more, most likely) away for Dylan Cease, who has a 4.42 ERA this year and was just chased out of the 2nd inning in his start last Wednesday, I'd be a bit frustrated right now.

On The Trade Deadline in regards to Cincinnati Reds.

This is why Reds could NOT be major buyers in July of 2023

A small market team with no fans in stands money in 2020, plus no minor league money in 2020. This hurt Cincinnati far more than Big City teams like deep pocket NY Yankees or LA Dodgers.

Due to 2020 covid closings, Reds had to cut high paid players to reduce payroll. This resulted in poor fan attendance in 2021 and 2022, worst attendance for Reds in 40 years. That means Reds were going broke, and owners said so, and moving out of Cincinnati was now on the table. However owners wanted to keep Reds in Cincinnati.

Reds are still paying the 2 highest paid Reds ever. The Moose and Votto. The Moose is with Colorado, but Reds still pay all of his contract. Votto is with Reds but missed most of season with injury. He is back and batting under .200 and so Reds are getting little for the Super Mega Bucks they are paying The Moose and Votto.

So Cincinnati could NOT be buyers at trade deadline in 2023, the money just isn't there.

However 2024 could be different. Reds have rebounded from covid 2020 sooner than expected. All the minor league players they accumulated have put together an exciting winning team in 2023, an attendance is UP and much needed money coming in.

Also on MONEY, Reds get out from under The Moose Contract AND The Votto Contract after World Series in November, The 2 highest paid Reds ever contracts over with, and considering they add nothing to the team and only hold the team back now, these Mega Millions off the payroll helps Greatly in 2024.

So there was no money to spend on free agents in 2023, and Cincinnati had to cut back since 2020 no fans covid. However they were STUCK with Moose and Votto Contracts, but that thankfully ends end of 2023 season.

I understand some of you wanted Reds to go all in to win World Series in 2023. As Fans, you can be emotional on that. However Reds are just darn lucky they are making money again for first time in years due to good attendance in 2023 for a change, They dump the Moose and Votto contracts and it's Full Speed Ahead in 2024 with these good young players Reds have.

When in doubt, go with youth. Reds should not be looking at old veterans in off season, unless they come Cheap. The Reds are loaded on young players from Reds all through their minor leagues. That is how the Reds rebuilt in 1980's and won in 1990. Reds have some pieces already like a young Eric Davis and a young Barry Larkin and a young Paul O'Neil and a young Sabo and a young Tom Browning. The Reds have young players like that now and the blueprint used to win in 1990 is the blueprint set up to win in 2024 or 2025.

But NOW was not the time to be more money foolish at the 2023 trade deadline. Sorry Fans, it's too early. But Reds are close to being a major power again. Good Young Hitting. Good Young Pitching. On The Reds and also coming up fast in The Reds Minors. Adios to paying Moose and Votto added to good 2023 gate attendance will help greatly going forward.

(08-10-2023, 10:39 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Buying rentals at the deadline is risky business. Despite the struggles we've had coming out of the trade deadline, I am still glad we didn't buy. We have 5 years ahead of us with all these young guys before we even need to pay for them. 

Hao-Yu Lee was the Phillies' 8th ranked prospect with a FV of 50. I think "no power" is a bit of an exaggeration. He has 15 HRs in 160 career games. That seems about average to me. Especially since several stops in the minors tend to be pitchers' ballparks more so than hitters parks like GABP.

The general equivalent from our system would have been maybe Sal Stewart. He's our 7th ranked prospect, 19 years old in A+, 2nd round pick in 2022. Also plays on the infield. 10 HR in 98 games, similar batting averages etc.

Would it have been worth it to trade Sal Stewart for 2 months of Michael Lorenzen? It's hard to say.

The team that has played the last 10 games does not look like they're one starting pitcher away from the World Series or even a playoff win. 

The last thing you want to do is be the LA Angels, who are on the fringe of the playoff picture, buy at the deadline and then lose 7 straight, essentially playing themselves out of playoff contention. Granted, they play in a much more competitive division than we do.

But I bet they are kicking themselves for not trading Ohtani right now. They could have set themselves up very nicely for the future. Instead, they are heading for losing him for free and still missing the playoffs.

Our situation is obviously not that dire, but if we did something like trade Marte (+ more, most likely) away for Dylan Cease, who has a 4.42 ERA this year and was just chased out of the 2nd inning in his start last Wednesday, I'd be a bit frustrated right now.

I'm not "fit to be tied" that they didn't mortgage the farm for a couple rentals. As we have seen these rookies and younger players are lets be nice and say "streaky" at the plate.

Hopefully this is Votto's last hurrah, and we can free up money there. But I can't help but wonder what we really have in our pitching staff?

Greene and Ashcraft give me some hope but after that it starts tapering off. I believe Abbott could be a good un. But I need to see more. What will Lodolo be when he comes back? Is he for real? 

Williamson might be a decent #5 or Lively. But I'm not overjoyed with what we'll be bringing to the table next season from the mound. 

In short I'm just hoping they'll shore up the pitching staff this off season. And not just wing it HOPING. The rest of this season is a lets look and see what we have trial for me.

(08-10-2023, 12:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm not "fit to be tied" that they didn't mortgage the farm for a couple rentals. As we have seen these rookies and younger players are lets be nice and say "streaky" at the plate.

Hopefully this is Votto's last hurrah, and we can free up money there. But I can't help but wonder what we really have in our pitching staff?

Greene and Ashcraft give me some hope but after that it starts tapering off. I believe Abbott could be a good un. But I need to see more. What will Lodolo be when he comes back? Is he for real? 

Williamson might be a decent #5 or Lively. But I'm not overjoyed with what we'll be bringing to the table next season from the mound. 

In short I'm just hoping they'll shore up the pitching staff this off season. And not just wing it HOPING. The rest of this season is a lets look and see what we have trial for me.

We do have to acknowledge Votto is having a great shortened season from a HR perspective.
He has just a third of the PAs that Steer has, but he has 13 HRs. Steer has 5 more HRs but over 300 more PAs.
Votto definitely would be at or near 30 HRs if he had played the whole year going near the pace he is.
If he was, he'd be in the Top 10 in the league.

With that said, I think it's about time, or he can work out a huge discount to have one more season. Reds really have an opportunity to get some improvements this offseason, and Votto's $$ off the books will go a long way in being able to do that.

(08-10-2023, 12:58 PM)ochocincos Wrote: We do have to acknowledge Votto is having a great shortened season from a HR perspective.
He has just a third of the PAs that Steer has, but he has 13 HRs. Steer has 5 more HRs but over 300 more PAs.
Votto definitely would be at or near 30 HRs if he had played the whole year going near the pace he is.
If he was, he'd be in the Top 10 in the league.

With that said, I think it's about time, or he can work out a huge discount to have one more season. Reds really have an opportunity to get some improvements this offseason, and Votto's $$ off the books will go a long way in being able to do that.

I don't agree Votto is having a great short season.  Is he performing for what he is being paid ?  NO.   He is batting under .200 which is bad.   Now Willie Mays and Hank Aaron once described what they considered a home run hitter. They said someone who hits 30 homers or more and bats .300 or close to .300 

I laugh when Voto gets a hit and Reds announcers rave about Votto.   How much are Reds paying for that one hit, and the answer is Too Much. 

And the idea that IF Votto wasn't old and IF Votto was like he was 12 years ago.  There came a time Pete Rose was batting around .200 and hits turned into weak ground outs.   It came time for Take A Seat Pete.  Now it is time for Let Go of Votto. 

I could also add the Reds were winning more games before Votto came back. His return forced others to take a seat when the young team was playing great.  I really don't want to see Votto back next year at the cheaper price, because it's time for him batting under . 200 to clear the way for the young players Reds have. 

(08-10-2023, 02:50 PM)kevin Wrote: I don't agree Votto is having a great short season.  Is he performing for what he is being paid ?  NO.   He is batting under .200 which is bad.   Now Willie Mays and Hank Aaron once described what they considered a home run hitter. They said someone who hits 30 homers or more and bats .300 or close to .300 

I laugh when Voto gets a hit and Reds announcers rave about Votto.   How much are Reds paying for that one hit, and the answer is Too Much. 

And the idea that IF Votto wasn't old and IF Votto was like he was 12 years ago.  There came a time Pete Rose was batting around .200 and hits turned into weak ground outs.   It came time for Take A Seat Pete.  Now it is time for Let Go of Votto. 

I could also add the Reds were winning more games before Votto came back. His return forced others to take a seat when the young team was playing great.  I really don't want to see Votto back next year at the cheaper price, because it's time for him batting under . 200 to clear the way for the young players Reds have. 

Votto is third on the team in OPS at .856.
He leads the team in slugging at .533
He has a respectable .323 OBP
His wRc+ is 122 with a wOBA of .363. 
His OPS+ is 124.

He's still well above average in exit velocity (71st percentile) as well.

The reason his BA is low (.219. Not below .200) is because he's having bad BABIP luck. His current BABIP is .213. The league average is .297. His BABIP will regress towards the mean (as all luck based stats do), and his average will increase.

By virtually any measure, Votto is having a very good season. He isn't the MVP candidate he once was, but that shouldn't be the expectation of a 39 year old coming off injury. I think he's performed well above what I was hoping for.