The Bengals still have the 9th best odds at winning the Super Bowl? I went in hoping to find them near the bottom, however they were still in the top 3rd. Vegas/Sports Books, typically have a good handle on these types of things.

I know this season hasn’t started the way we all hoped. We are essentially in a mid-season playoffs, right now. The first four weeks are behind us and there is a LONG way to go. However if this team can eke out two wins (visually: good, bad, meh) they will get a bye week, and then have 11 weeks to go over .500, 6-5 or better, and be in the mix.

Reasons why not to give up on this team:
1) Burrow has to be getting healthier. It’s been a while since his initial injury.
2) We have faced 3 of the top 8 scoring against defenses, we lost all 3. To put it in perspective, cardinals give up 7.5 more points per game than the lowest of the top 3, titans at 17.5.
3) all four teams we have played are giving up less than 300 ypg, all top 12 and two of the top 3.
4) AFCN is decimated with injuries. In fact the bengals may be in the best shape, burrow not with standing.

Reasons for concern:
1) play calling, it has to get better on both sides.
2) burrows mental struggle. we have seen him overcome this before. I’m hoping that it’s a UCF type hit/taunt/moment to burrow that wakes him up. If you don’t know what I’m talking, watch what he did after the hit/pick 6. As Andy Reid told mahomes, and hopefully Zac tells burrow/the team, when things loook grim, be the grim reaper. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dfYMHqTMQB0
3) team moral, but this is solved with going 2-0.

Long story short, if we come out of the next two weeks 2-0, which is possible, it would have required us to overcome the concerns. If we are sitting at 3-3 before the bye, this team will be what we thought before the season . The only thing most likely out of reach is the 1 seed at this point.

This isn’t a 13 week season anymore, it’s really a 2 week, must win, mid-season playoffs.

(10-04-2023, 09:59 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: The Bengals still have the 9th best odds at winning the Super Bowl?  I went in hoping to find them near the bottom, however they were still in the top 3rd.  Vegas/Sports Books, typically have a good handle on these types of things.  

I know this season hasn’t started the way we all hoped. We are essentially in a mid-season playoffs, right now.  The first four weeks are behind us and there is a LONG way to go.  However if this team can eke out two wins (visually: good, bad, meh) they will get a bye week, and then have 11 weeks to go over .500, 6-5 or better, and be in the mix.  

Reasons why not to give up on this team:
1) Burrow has to be getting healthier.  It’s been a while since his initial injury.
2) We have faced 3 of the top 8 scoring against defenses, we lost all 3. To put it in perspective, cardinals give up 7.5 more points per game than the lowest of the top 3, titans at 17.5.
3) all four teams we have played are giving up less than 300 ypg, all top 12 and two of the top 3.
4) AFCN is decimated with injuries.  In fact the bengals may be in the best shape, burrow not with standing.  

Reasons for concern:
1) play calling, it has to get better on both sides.
2) burrows mental struggle.  we have seen him overcome this before.  I’m hoping that it’s a UCF type hit/taunt/moment to burrow that wakes him up.  If you don’t know what I’m talking, watch what he did after the hit/pick 6.  As Andy Reid told mahomes, and hopefully Zac tells burrow/the team, when things loook grim, be the grim reaper. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dfYMHqTMQB0
3) team moral,  but this is solved with going 2-0.

Long story short, if we come out of the next two weeks 2-0, which is possible, it would have required us to overcome the concerns. If we are sitting at 3-3 before the bye, this team will be what we thought before the season .  The only thing most likely out of reach is the 1 seed at this point.

This isn’t a 13 week season anymore, it’s really a 2 week, must win, mid-season playoffs.

If the Bengals Win the next 2 games then that would be a 3 and 1 record since the loss to Baltimore.

I would have taken that back then and also thought it would be more likely than going 4 and 0 since the loss to Baltimore.

They still have to do it.

Nothing wrong with thinking positive as that's how winners think. You want to be a winner and successful then hang with winners and successful people. You want to be a loser hang with losers. But.... if they don't turn things around like NOW, with the struggles on both sides of the ball they will struggle to win many games this year.

(10-04-2023, 10:07 AM)depthchart Wrote: If the Bengals Win the next 2 games then that would be a 3 and 1 record since the loss to Baltimore.

I would have taken that back then and also thought it would be more likely than going 4 and 0 since the loss to Baltimore.

They still have to do it.

I think most expected Bengals to be 4-2 at worst going into the bye, and most had expectations of Bengals pushing for the top seed in the AFC this year.
I think that's part of the reason for so much doom and gloom already this year compared to past two years.

2021 was a cinderella year, not expected to do that well.
2022 was expectation of playoffs and probably one playoff win, but maybe not everyone had expectation of getting back to the AFCCG.
This year, it's SB/AFCCG or bust.

(10-04-2023, 10:12 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I think most expected Bengals to be 4-2 at worst going into the bye, and most had expectations of Bengals pushing for the top seed in the AFC this year.
I think that's part of the reason for so much doom and gloom already this year compared to past two years.

2021 was a cinderella year, not expected to do that well.
2022 was expectation of playoffs and probably one playoff win, but maybe not everyone had expectation of getting back to the AFCCG.
This year, it's SB/AFCCG or bust.

Injuries wreck seasons for Teams.

The Jets this year with Rodgers.  The Ravens Lamar Jackson hurt last year and could get hurt again this year. 

Deshaun Watson misses last week & Browns get rolled by the Ravens. (although Watson should come back, so season not wrecked yet)

If Burrow can return to form soon, then 2023 has some Hope still.

Plus one never knows which Team may get hit with that KEY injury next.  (Maybe Chiefs/ Bills who knows)

You are correct Depth,, injuries. Some teams seem to be able to overcome them some cannot. Bengals don't seem to be able to. Comes back to the same talk here about Burrow. Seems most of the board favors sitting JB while he seems very limited but Zac feels he is good enough to go. This version of JB is depressing to watch and if it continues I wonder how long Zac will go with him.

(10-04-2023, 10:23 AM)depthchart Wrote: Injuries wreck seasons for Teams.

The Jets this year with Rodgers.  The Ravens Lamar Jackson hurt last year and could get hurt again this year. 

Deshaun Watson misses last week & Browns get rolled by the Ravens. (although Watson should come back, so season not wrecked yet)

If Burrow can return to form soon, then 2023 has some Hope still.

Plus one never knows which Team may get hit with that KEY injury next.  (Maybe Chiefs/ Bills who knows)

The Ravens still made the playoffs in 2023 with a bad and then missing Lamar, and were a 99 yard fumble return for a TD in the 4th quarter away from beating the Joe Burrow led Bengals in the playoffs in Cincinnati with their backup QB.

The Bengals are looking at getting a top-5 pick with a bad Burrow.

Not the same.

Sportsbooks give odds based on how people will bet to make a profit.

I dont know that it ties to reality that much. But, making a SB and a championship game in the past 2 years has weight.

It just depends on Burrow honestly. Either he is getting healthier and thus will start to play better (we start winning again) or this is a problem that lasts the whole year, and the offense is bad the entire season. The offense and team can only go as far as Burrow can take them. The offense is not schemed well enough and/or not talented enough to thrive with an injured Burrow. Now with the defense seemingly taking a step backwards from previous years we need the offense to step up now more than ever. Until Burrow is healthy, I just don't see that happening.

(10-04-2023, 11:50 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Ravens still made the playoffs in 2023 with a bad and then missing Lamar, and were a 99 yard fumble return for a TD in the 4th quarter away from beating the Joe Burrow led Bengals in the playoffs in Cincinnati with their backup QB.

The Bengals are looking at getting a top-5 pick with a bad Burrow.

Not the same.

The Steelers and lions were in the same boat last year at 1-3, and they both finished above .500… but missing the playoffs.

I know it has been ugly, really ugly, but if Goff and Pickett can lead their teams to the, almost, playoffs… I am not yet ready to give up yet.

This is a good position to be in. A veteran roster that has proven to bounce back the last two years. It’s literally 2 weeks. The bye is coming at a perfect time, assuming they win these two… which I believe they can. It has NOTHING to do with the first month of the season and everything to do with the last two years.

(10-04-2023, 11:50 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Ravens still made the playoffs in 2023 with a bad and then missing Lamar, and were a 99 yard fumble return for a TD in the 4th quarter away from beating the Joe Burrow led Bengals in the playoffs in Cincinnati with their backup QB.

The Bengals are looking at getting a top-5 pick with a bad Burrow.

Not the same.

Never said it was exactly "the same".

If Lamar plays in the Playoff game against the Bengals last Season maybe the Ravens make a Super Bowl run.

Tyler Huntley showed himself as a capable Backup QB last year, while the Bengals may not have one of Huntley's caliber.

The Ravens may have prepared better for an injury to their Starting QB by having Huntley than the Bengals have planned.

Can't say for sure until the Bengals Backup QB plays some meaningful games.

(10-04-2023, 12:19 PM)Garrus Wrote: It just depends on Burrow honestly. Either he is getting healthier and thus will start to play better (we start winning again) or this is a problem that lasts the whole year, and the offense is bad the entire season. The offense and team can only go as far as Burrow can take them. The offense is not schemed well enough and/or not talented enough to thrive with an injured Burrow. Now with the defense seemingly taking a step backwards from previous years we need the offense to step up now more than ever. Until Burrow is healthy, I just don't see that happening.

What’s crazy about the titans game…

The titans had the ball for 34:45 and put up 400 yards of offense.

For the three TD scoring possessions, which all happened in the back half of the second quarter, they only needed 5:45 and amassed 226 yards averaging 11.3 yards per play.

For the other 29 minutes, they allowed 174 yards, 6 points and 2.8 yards per play.

I’m not sure if it was just a lapse for a few series or what. But wow what a horrible 5:45 seconds.

This seems more like a mental lapse, and learning opportunity for some newer/younger guys than anything else. I thought we would see this up until the bye week, I just thought the offense would hang with anyone in the NFL.

(10-04-2023, 12:16 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Sportsbooks give odds based on how people will bet to make a profit.

I dont know that it ties to reality that much. But, making a SB and a championship game in the past 2 years has weight.

I don’t think many casual fans are running out there to put a lot of money on the 1-3 bengals right now. Considering how bad it has looked, I would have thought at LEAST bottom half.

Considering I do believe they turn it around going into the bye week, this is likely the best (longest) the odds are going to be.

I agree

We could easily look up in a couple weeks and be 5-3. That would be a blessing with the trash start

We’d probably be right around the wildcard fight

(10-04-2023, 12:21 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: The Steelers and lions were in the same boat last year at 1-3, and they both finished above .500… but missing the playoffs.

I know it has been ugly, really ugly, but if Goff and Pickett can lead their teams to the, almost, playoffs… I am not yet ready to give up yet.

This is a good position to be in.  A veteran roster that has proven to bounce back the last two years.  It’s literally 2 weeks.  The bye is coming at a perfect time, assuming they win these two… which I believe they can.  It has NOTHING to do with the first month of the season and everything to do with the last two years.

No, I am sorry but being 3-1 or 4-0 is a good position to be in.

Being 1-3 with the 32nd-34th QB and 31st-32nd offense in the NFL is never a "good position" to be in.

Anything is possible, but this season just feels like 2010, when we returned most of the same guys and coaches, but the energy and vibe just shifted. Nothing seemed to work right.

Also, it's tough to use our opponent's defensive rankings to prove anything when our team is 25% of their schedule, and we've been so inept.

We only scored 3 points in 2 of those games, and had some awful yardage outputs as well. I'm sure that helped their rankings.

Best case scenario: the 2023 Bengals are like the 2011 Giants. We finish around .500 but win the Super Bowl.

I mean, if you were writing a movie, wouldn't this be the drama filled challenge the protagonist(s) have to overcome? Just when everything looks bleak, but then suddenly, good stuff starts happening. Cue the montage filled with all the highlights from the good guys. Montage ends with the heroes in the championship game finding themselves facing one more huge challenge. CAN THEY OVERCOME AND WIN THE DAY?

This stuff kinda writes itself, no?

(10-04-2023, 03:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No, I am sorry but being 3-1 or 4-0 is a good position to be in.

Being 1-3 with the 32nd-34th QB and 31st-32nd offense in the NFL is never a "good position" to be in.

True, but I see that you intentionally left out the fact that our defense is doing much better than the offense as a Top 28 unit........ yeah, we stink.

(10-04-2023, 04:13 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I mean, if you were writing a movie, wouldn't this be the drama filled challenge the protagonist(s) have to overcome? Just when everything looks bleak, but then suddenly, good stuff starts happening. Cue the montage filled with all the highlights from the good guys. Montage ends with the heroes in the championship game finding themselves facing one more huge challenge. CAN THEY OVERCOME AND WIN THE DAY?

This stuff kinda writes itself, no?

It could have happened, unless someone mentions it BEFORE it happens and jinxes it.... good job Phil, now we are really screwed.