(10-17-2023, 12:22 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Falcons would likely trade Pitts for Higgins quickly.

Highly doubt it. Even if we ignore Higgins' performance this year and his rib injury...

-The Falcons have Pitts for 2 more years at about $13m total. 
-Higgins has a little over half a year left before he needs either a >$20m franchise tag, or a 4yr/$100-108m contract.

Pitts is still a 23-year-old Pro Bowler 4th overall pick at a position that is lacking around the leauge. Also, Higgins would have to agree to sign an extension with them to be their #2 WR since they just spent an 8th overall pick to draft Drake London to be their #1, which I don't think Higgins wants. 

(10-17-2023, 12:09 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: He is effectively their number 2 TE.

But they use a lot of 12 personnel.
Pitts and Jonnu Smith both have played 60% of the offensive snaps.
Both TEs have 250+ yards, which puts them both Top 10 among TEs.
They also want to be a strong running team, so they need TEs more than they need WRs.

(10-17-2023, 12:32 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I dunno about that because of the contract situation.

Pitts would still be on his rookie deal for two more seasons, and his 5th year option will be cheaper because it'd be TE salaries to calculate. (Or I thought it was treated the same way as tag calculation)

Meanwhile, Higgins would be FA after this season, and the Falcons would have to pay him a good amount to keep him. There's risk there.

Also, why would the Bengals want to give up a WR in Higgins to get a TE upgrade?
That doesn't really improve them for this year.

I can see the Falcons being in the Higgins sweepstakes, getting him early allows for time to work on an extension.  WR1 is much more valuable than a TE1.

Bengals do it for all the reasons you stated along with a future Pitts extension that would be 10M less than Higgins when the time came.

As for this year it is difficult to say that Pitts wouldnt be an improvement in some form or fashion.  Tee hasnt been very good himself.

(10-17-2023, 12:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep people need to stop caring so much about drops and be more concerned with the actual yardage and TD production.

Who is better - A guy who gets 300 yards but 0 drops, or a guy who gets 500 yards and like 5-10 drops? Personally, I go with the latter.

Ehhhhh... if you said 0 vs like 3? Sure. But 5-10 drops is a LOT of drops to account for a 200 yard difference. You figure 200 yards at ~10.0 yards per catch is 20 catches. I don't know if I would trade 20 catches for 5-10 drops. Heck, 50 catches for 500 yards and 10 drops would be a 16.7% drop rate, which is about 2.5% worse than John Ross who hovered around 14.2%. 

I agree with your point overall, but the specifics of your example I cannot agree with at all. Lol

(10-17-2023, 12:41 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I can see the Falcons being in the Higgins sweepstakes, getting him early allows for time to work on an extension.  WR1 is much more valuable than a TE1.

Bengals do it for all the reasons you stated along with a future Pitts extension that would be 10M less than Higgins when the time came.

As for this year it is difficult to say that Pitts wouldnt be an improvement in some form or fashion.  Tee hasnt been very good himself.

They have Drake London as their WR1.

They won't have a strong passing offense, as Arthur Smith prefers a run-heavy offense.

They might want Higgins since London will be on a rookie contract through 2026, but I don't think Higgins would be overly productive in Arthur Smith's offense.
I think he'll put up about the same numbers we see him put up with the Bengals.

(10-17-2023, 12:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ehhhhh... if you said 0 vs like 3? Sure. But 5-10 drops is a LOT of drops to account for a 200 yard difference. You figure 200 yards at ~10.0 yards per catch is 20 catches. I don't know if I would trade 20 catches for 5-10 drops. Heck, 50 catches for 500 yards and 10 drops would be a 16.7% drop rate, which is about 2.5% worse than John Ross who hovered around 14.2%. 

I agree with your point overall, but the specifics of your example I cannot agree with at all. Lol

Yea I don't know how many drops is a lot nowadays, so I just made up a number. Let's just say 5 if that's a decent number but not overly high.

(10-17-2023, 11:58 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Why would ATL trade Pitts?

They are 3-3 and only 0.5 game behind the division lead.
Pitts is 7th among all TEs for receiving yards.

There's no way they would trade him (IMO).

Out of the potential TEs who might make the most sense, I look at someone like Mike Gesicki in NE.
On a cheap deal, still under 30 years old (that matters to the Bengals coaches), he's playing second fiddle behind Hunter Henry, and NE is doing bad.
He might be a perfect option to trade like a 6th or 7th rounder for.

I'd be down with that.

(10-17-2023, 12:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Highly doubt it. Even if we ignore Higgins' performance this year and his rib injury...

-The Falcons have Pitts for 2 more years at about $13m total. 
-Higgins has a little over half a year left before he needs either a >$20m franchise tag, or a 4yr/$100-108m contract.

Pitts is still a 23-year-old Pro Bowler 4th overall pick at a position that is lacking around the leauge. Also, Higgins would have to agree to sign an extension with them to be their #2 WR since they just spent an 8th overall pick to draft Drake London to be their #1, which I don't think Higgins wants. 

Yep I agree here.

(10-17-2023, 12:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's because over the last 2 years he has 5 catches for 8 yards. Lol

The last time Sample had at least 15 yards in a game where the Bengals didn't lose by 4+ scores was December 2020.

If you're going to play Sample nonstop, honestly just go back to 2009 and start 6 OL instead.

With the current personnel, Sample may be your best bet at the 6th OL.

(10-17-2023, 12:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea I don't know how many drops is a lot nowadays, so I just made up a number. Let's just say 5 if that's a decent number but not overly high.

Packers led the NFL last year with a team 7.7% drop rate. Falcons were best in the NFL (by a pretty healthy gap) last year with a team 2.3% drop rate.

For reference.... Kelce had 8 drops on 152 targets last year, and Kittle had 3 on 86 targets last year.... Hurst had 2 drops on 68 targets last year.

So yeah, I think it wouldn't be an inspiring contributor, but it would be considered enough at 5. Uzomah in 2021 had 4 on 63 targets. We don't need a world beater at TE, but I think Uzomah is a good low threshold requirement. 

(Drops according to PFR)

(10-17-2023, 11:35 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Let's also be transparent that Uzomah and Hurst are better than Smith.

The most production Smith has had in a season was 365 yards, 5 TDs. Most receptions in a season was 36.

Uzomah? 49-493-5
Hurst? 56-571-6

Smith is not even in the same realm as those guys.

We're seeing that despite Bengals not valuing the TE position from a feature perspective, not just anyone can come in and get 400+ yards at TE. You still have to be decent.
Smith is not that right now.

Some were "relieved" when the Bengals picked up Smith, as he appeared to be the "receiving type" of TE that if he could just remain healthy, he might have his breakout season with the Bengals offense.  So far, even when healthy, Smith's average target is 2.9 yds.  That's not all his fault, but with him having a few drops, I can also understand Joe's apprehension to target him downfield more.

(10-17-2023, 12:52 PM)Wyche Wrote: With the current personnel, Sample may be your best bet at the 6th OL.

That might be the case, which is sad. I just figure at least for running you might be missing that extra 70+lbs of man on the field. Maybe Carman wouldn't be totally awful if he's just run blocking and then on pass blocking really only expected to chip or pick up a blitzing CB/S?

(10-17-2023, 01:06 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That might be the case, which is sad. I just figure at least for running you might be missing that extra 70+lbs of man on the field. Maybe Carman wouldn't be totally awful if he's just run blocking and then on pass blocking really only expected to chip or pick up a blitzing CB/S?

I was mostly kidding, but then again....

I am with you honestly. It got the run game going that year. I'd hope someone in the oline room could do what you're asking. If they couldn't, just....wow.

Irv Smith was a topic of discussion on a couple of podcasts I listen to. Dehner speculates that Burrow simply doesn't trust Smith and that's why we're not seeing much from him. Zac also did a PC and didn't exactly endorse Irv. Mo Egger did bring up something that I really agree with. You can't just keep sitting back and going with the cheap bottom of the barrel signing and count on it working. 

When free agency hits next year, the Bengals would probably benefit from actually pursuing a TE instead of waiting for one to come to you. The last two drafts have been proof that you can't just expect to get your guy in the draft. The TE board has not fallen the Bengals way the last two years.

Why not throw Waller into the mix?

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2023/10/17/23921118/darren-waller-bengals-giants-nfl-trade-deadline-rumors

He’s got a few points against him I think in that he’s over 30, somewhat expensive at 17 APY. But he’s on a team that’s going nowhere and he’s shown he can produce. Unless there is some restructuring I think this is a long shot, but it just serves as an example of how complicated it is to get an impactful TE in our situation. You can maybe get one but it’s going to cost you and be in less than ideal financial/age circumstances.

(10-16-2023, 09:56 PM)jj22 Wrote: They may need to trade for someone young and on the rise. Someone like Pitts. Even if it take a 2nd round pick. Next years class isn’t strong outside of Bowers. And if they have to force a high pick on one for need anyway……

With the way Tee has played, I could ge behind this. Especially if resinging Pitts came at a fraction of the cost of Tee. Pitts shouldn’t be that expensive because he hasn’t done much.

Unless Tee has a big second half of the season he will have problems with his asking price. Not the injury but the dropsies which have killed his yardage as some of them were big yards.

Thought somebody with inside connections said that Irv Smith was going to be great for the Bengals per feedback from their expert watching him in practice ?

(10-17-2023, 11:19 PM)chrisball96 Wrote: Why not throw Waller into the mix?

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2023/10/17/23921118/darren-waller-bengals-giants-nfl-trade-deadline-rumors

He’s got a few points against him I think in that he’s over 30, somewhat expensive at 17 APY. But he’s on a team that’s going nowhere and he’s shown he can produce. Unless there is some restructuring I think this is a long shot, but it just serves as an example of how complicated it is to get an impactful TE in our situation. You can maybe get one but it’s going to cost you and be in less than ideal financial/age circumstances.

I think that you just answered your own question.  Personally, I feel like his best days are behind him, and with no more than the Bengals utilized the TE as a featured weapon in plays it would be a bad ROI.  Large market teams with deep pockets can take those sort of risks, teams on a tight budget like the Bengals, not so much.

(10-18-2023, 08:03 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I think that you just answered your own question.  Personally, I feel like his best days are behind him, and with no more than the Bengals utilized the TE as a featured weapon in plays it would be a bad ROI.  Large market teams with deep pockets can take those sort of risks, teams on a tight budget like the Bengals, not so much.

If the Bengals were to trade for Darren Waller it would be essentially a half year/600kish deal. He is only due a base salary of 1.16m in 2023 and since the Bengals are not on the hook for his guarantees they can cut him after 2023 with zero dead cap or keep him at the 10m base salary in 2024.


A couple more names as potential trades Bronco's Greg Dulcich (Hammy has been hampering him all year but a young player) and Chiefs Noah Gray (zero reason to trade him).