(01-19-2024, 04:04 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He could definitely get a little more but probably from a bad team like Carolina. If that matters to him at all.

And yeah that seems like a fair offer considering Tee’s injury history and inability to stay on the field. DJ Moore got 3 years $61 million and he had pretty comparable stats to Tee when he got that deal in 2022.

A few things I don't think players take a look at much is opportunity for success and potential to play out a contract with program stability, among others.

He could go to a bad team like Carolina and guaranteed money or overall money, but they don't consider that, if the team struggles, they'll probably blow it all up and they'd get cut anyways.

I get it that an NFL players' career is short and a lot think they should get the money while they can, but, after your first contract and you're relatively stable, why not just bet on yourself to stay healthy and stay with the program where you have stability?

(01-19-2024, 03:07 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: A few things I don't think players take a look at much is opportunity for success and potential to play out a contract with program stability, among others.

He could go to a bad team like Carolina and guaranteed money or overall money, but they don't consider that, if the team struggles, they'll probably blow it all up and they'd get cut anyways.

I get it that an NFL players' career is short and a lot think they should get the money while they can, but, after your first contract and you're relatively stable, why not just bet on yourself to stay healthy and stay with the program where you have stability?

They look at guaranteed money & years. 

Tee is a proven player in my book. In his prime.  I'd be more than willing to up the guaranteed numbers in exchange for bringing the cap hit down. 

I just think his camp thinks he can get $25 mil per on the open market. He may be right about that. 

(01-17-2024, 07:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Pretty sure we heard the same with AJ Green when he ended up getting tagged.
What did we see that year?
A WR was still taken super early (Higgins) and played a good amount while AJ Green cost the team $18.1 mill for a 1-year rental.

Personally, unless there can be a guarantee Higgins is signed to a long-term contract, I don't want to see $20+ mill going toward a 1-year rental, especially if a draft pick is invested in Rds 1-2 as well.

Either sign him to a new deal or let him walk and get a new guy in the draft or outside FA to replace.

Spotrac has his market value at $18.6 million/yr for 4 years.  Even that seems like it's just a shade high.  I don't think Tee is a WR1 really.  Chase draws the double coverage mostly, but Tee's numbers should've been much better over the last 3 years.  I think he finds a sucker to pay him WR1 money if we don't tag him.

He's has injured his right hamstring in each of his 5 years in the league.  We ignored the signs with AJ Green and all the red flags are there with Tee.  Let's get someone new in there Round 2 and having Burrow automatically makes the rookie that much better.  I like the savings of $14+ million a year or so with a rookie and use that money to upgrade the OL.

(01-19-2024, 12:52 PM)Whatever Wrote: WR2 's are a double edged sword when it comes to individual production.  They see less targets, but they don't see double coverage as often and usually get don't get lined up against the CB1.  So, they get fewer targets, but they get a boost to their yards/target based on easier matchups.  Higgins has 100+ targets his first three years, good enough for Top 33 each year.  He is not lacking for target share.  Furthermore, he wouldn't be seeing a pretty big chunk of Chase's targets due to the fact that Chase is a three level threat that runs a full route tree and Tee is primarily a threat on intermediate timing routes, like outs, digs, back shoulder fades, come backs, etc.  WR screens, flats, whips, and crossers that Chase runs are not in Tee's skill set(this is a big reason why he's more of a complementary receiver and not a true #1).

Beyond that, if we're trying to determine where Higgins stacks up, why are we making caveats for him being a WR2 and not doing the same for every other WR2 in the league?

Why doesn't this year count?  Why would his miserable 8 Targets for zero catches in the opener against the Browns not count?  Why would his terrible 2 catches on 8 Targets for 21 yards against the Rams not count?  His most recent year is the biggest indicator of what kind of player he currently is.How many of the WR's we're comparing Higgins to have Joe Burrow or an equivalent QB throwing to them at any point in their career?  Are we curving all of them for QB play, as well, or does only Higgins get this benefit?

If we're going to pick and choose, during the second Steelers game this year when Chase was out, Higgins had one catch for 23 yards the first half, then had an 80 yard TD on a busted coverage and racked up some garbage time yards in the blowout for a 140 yard day.  Looks great to fantasy owners, but you really can't say he stepped up on a gotta have it game with Chase out.

We are talking about using the FT on a one year rental for Higgins.  Age doesn't play into that.  Thielen may be ancient, but he could replace that production for one year for a fraction of the cost.  If we're talking long term deal, it matters.  But for one, it doesn't.

So Tee Higgins is a better WR than guys like Nacau, Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, etc, etc simply because he played all four years of your chosen sample size and they didn't?  That's not good logic at all.

Again, per your pattern, it seems logical but misses the forest for the trees. 

Higgins has absolutely beasted when Chase has been out. Have you not been watching the last 3 years? That is the exact opposite of the point you were making. Generally, it can often be the case. 

In THIS case, though? We know it just isn't because we have seen it. Over & over. 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2023/12/22/24008131/tee-higgins-stepped-up-without-jamarr-chase-before-cincinnati-bengals

He was 5 for 140 & a TD (on 8 targets) in the sans Chase games this year. 

So in 5 games without Chase, Tee went 31 catches for 511 yards & 3 TDs. 

In 15 games that would be 93 catches for 1,533 yards and 9 TDs. 

You were saying?????? 

(01-19-2024, 05:01 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Again, per your pattern, it seems logical but misses the forest for the trees. 

Higgins has absolutely beasted when Chase has been out. Have you not been watching the last 3 years? That is the exact opposite of the point you were making. Generally, it can often be the case. 

In THIS case, though? We know it just isn't because we have seen it. Over & over. 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2023/12/22/24008131/tee-higgins-stepped-up-without-jamarr-chase-before-cincinnati-bengals

He was 5 for 140 & a TD (on 8 targets) in the sans Chase games this year. 

So in 5 games without Chase, Tee went 31 catches for 511 yards & 3 TDs. 

In 15 games that would be 93 catches for 1,533 yards and 9 TDs. 

You were saying?????? 

I believe I already addressed the Steelers game.  He had an 80 yard TD on a busted coverage, which vastly skews his stats for that game.  It happens, but certainly isn't "beast".  Aside from one busted coverage (when the game was already a blowout), he would have 4 catches for 60 yards.  Not that impressive, is it?

It's also interesting to note that that Steelers game is also the only game in your sample size where he actually faced a playoff team. Ironically , 283 of his yards in that span are in two games against the Steelers. 

Of course, we've already seen a full of season of Higgins without Chase, as well.  

Although, the reality is that Higgins is a very up and down receiver.  He has monster games, then disappears for multiple games.  It's interesting to note that he's been held below 40 receiving yards 25 times in his career.  The lack of consistency is a big reason why I don't see him as a true WR1.

(01-19-2024, 04:43 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: They look at guaranteed money & years. 

Tee is a proven player in my book. In his prime.  I'd be more than willing to up the guaranteed numbers in exchange for bringing the cap hit down. 

I just think his camp thinks he can get $25 mil per on the open market. He may be right about that. 

(01-19-2024, 06:38 PM)Whatever Wrote: I believe I already addressed the Steelers game.  He had an 80 yard TD on a busted coverage, which vastly skews his stats for that game.  It happens, but certainly isn't "beast".  Aside from one busted coverage (when the game was already a blowout), he would have 4 catches for 60 yards.  Not that impressive, is it?

It's also interesting to note that that Steelers game is also the only game in your sample size where he actually faced a playoff team. Ironically , 283 of his yards in that span are in two games against the Steelers. 

Of course, we've already seen a full of season of Higgins without Chase, as well.  

Although, the reality is that Higgins is a very up and down receiver.  He has monster games, then disappears for multiple games.  It's interesting to note that he's been held below 40 receiving yards 25 times in his career.  The lack of consistency is a big reason why I don't see him as a true WR1.

I am sort of in the middle between both of your opinions in a way.

I think TEE gets a lot of Extra Credit by Fans for just how COOL it looks when he makes some of his catches.

His best seasons are 1,029 yards and 1,091 yards which I see as replaceable numbers if a decent replacement was selected.

With that said, I do think TEE could become a Top 20 #1 receiver with a possibility of maybe proving to be better than that.

From there it comes down to Money the Bengals will have to pay versus possible replacements if TEE is say a Tag & Trade possibility.

A one year rental from here ? or  longer term contract ? or  Trade options ?

I simply would do some Hard Thinking about every option if I were the Bengals over the next few months. (Free Agency/Draft)

(01-19-2024, 03:07 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: A few things I don't think players take a look at much is opportunity for success and potential to play out a contract with program stability, among others.

He could go to a bad team like Carolina and guaranteed money or overall money, but they don't consider that, if the team struggles, they'll probably blow it all up and they'd get cut anyways.

I get it that an NFL players' career is short and a lot think they should get the money while they can, but, after your first contract and you're relatively stable, why not just bet on yourself to stay healthy and stay with the program where you have stability?

Think about were a lot of these kids come from. And most don’t have a 4 year college degree. They need to make as much as the can for the 4-8 years they play in the league. They’ve worked hard their whole life and this is their one and only chance to cash in. I think you go for the money.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10104495

(01-19-2024, 07:56 PM)depthchart Wrote: I am sort of in the middle between both of your opinions in a way.

I think TEE gets a lot of Extra Credit by Fans for just how COOL it looks when he makes some of his catches.

His best seasons are 1,029 yards and 1,091 yards which I see as replaceable numbers if a decent replacement was selected.

With that said, I do think TEE could become a Top 20 #1 receiver with a possibility of maybe proving to be better than that.

From there it comes down to Money the Bengals will have to pay versus possible replacements if TEE is say a Tag & Trade possibility.

A one year rental from here ? or  longer term contract ? or  Trade options ?

I simply would do some Hard Thinking about every option if I were the Bengals over the next few months. (Free Agency/Draft)

I'm the same being in the middle because, like I say below, does he put up those numbers without Burrow throwing him the ball and/or Chase drawing coverage?

I agree and I hope that his agent isn't filing his head with stupid thoughts like "oh, you can be a Hall of Famer on another team and make more than you ever imagined!"

Glad Drew Rosendouche isn't his agent.

Let's hope Tee makes the smartest decision for his future!

(01-19-2024, 10:15 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: Think about were a lot of these kids come from. And most don’t have a 4 year college degree. They need to make as much as the can for the 4-8 years they play in the league. They’ve worked hard their whole life and this is their one and only chance to cash in. I think you go for the money.

That's exactly what I'm saying though: coming from nothing and not having a 4-year degree (and let's be honest, how many took "real" classes? I went to a d3 school and a lot of athletes took stupid classes that had no relevance to the real world), wouldn't they want stability and making sure their future is set more than a more money short-term? 

I guess it's kind of a double edged sword because you can look at it as more guaranteed or more stability and (maybe) more overall money, but then there's also the chance of getting hurt. Or if he's offered more money here but less guaranteed, it might be good for him because he knows that, barring injury (a big IF), he could make more money here with a better chance at succeeding with more stability.

At this point, he's already made a little over 10 million, and let's say he has taken home half, so five million. You could say that's enough, but he has a better shot at succeeding here opposite of Chase and making more money in the long run, and that's not even considering that he has Burrow here throwing him the ball.

Would he succeed with another quarterback and no Chase? Let's also not forget that Burrow hasn't been protected by a good line for an entire season (or at all?) yet.

I obviously don't know if he has saved all that or invested or what, so I can't really say what's best for him, but it looks like the safer bet to make more money and extend his career is here.

Tee Higgins stresses out a secondary with or without Chase on
The field. No other Bengals WR has his skill set.
Not Irwin not Boyd not Iosivias. Funny how some
Of you want him to move on to another
Team yet half the league would be Coveting him

(01-20-2024, 06:54 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Tee Higgins stresses out a secondary with or without Chase on
The field. No other Bengals WR has his skill set.
Not Irwin not Boyd not Iosivias. Funny how some
Of you want him to move on to another
Team yet half the league would be Coveting him

No one “wants” to move on from him. In a perfect world we’d re-sign him to a reasonable contract and he’d be part of the core for years to come. But that’s not happening. He has a notoriously hard to deal with agent, and they’re very likely looking for more than the Bengals can realistically spend on a WR2.

I hate to say this, but I think we’re all extremely over valuing Tee and tagging him is a giant mistake and waste of resources. Get a multi year deal done, fine. But he’s definitely not a top 5 WR. He’s not top 10. I’d put him around 20. Is he even better than Michael Pittman, Metcalf, or even Christian Kirk? Look up their stats past 3 years, he’s pretty far down the list. I think we can replace him in the draft and it’s the type of move we have to do when we gave Burrow big money and next Chase.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receiving-yards-last-3-seasons

(01-20-2024, 07:00 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: I hate to say this, but I think we’re all extremely over valuing Tee and tagging him is a giant mistake and waste of resources. Get a multi year deal done, fine. But he’s definitely not a top 5 WR. He’s not top 10. I’d put him around 20. Is he even better than Michael Pittman, Metcalf, or even Christian Kirk? Look up their stats past 3 years, he’s pretty far down the list. I think we can replace him in the draft and it’s the type of move we have to do when we gave Burrow big money and next Chase.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receiving-yards-last-3-seasons

That's the thing...." I think we can replace him in the draft "
You are taking a gamble if you aren't sure you 
Can replace Tee in the draft. It's interesting how much
JaMarr and Joe really value Tee and WANT HIM BACK

(01-20-2024, 08:12 PM)impactplaya Wrote: That's the thing...." I think we can replace him in the draft "
You are taking a gamble if you aren't sure you 
Can replace Tee in the draft. It's interesting how much
JaMarr and Joe really value Tee and WANT HIM BACK

That doesn’t mean it’s a smart move for the bengals. Of course Joe and Jamarr want their friend to get paid and come back. Who wouldn’t. Tee seems like an awesome teammate and young guy.

Bengals draft WR well, especially when picking one in rounds 1 or 2. If we can get him for a contract that puts him in the range of 20th paid wr, then I’m for it. But this 4 year 80-100M range is just too much. And I love Tee. One of my favorite bengals. But we have bigger needs. Look at Baltimore and KC have better teams with less weapons. That’s bc they have great defenses. We need to invest in a DT and an another DE. I’d let it ride with the Corners bc we’ve invested so much draft capital there. Tag and trade Tee. Sign a DT, DE, RB, TE. RT round 1, WR round 2 and LG round 2 (tee trade).

Seeing Tee in the top 5 of a lot of the 2024 top free agents lists.

I'd much prefer to be gaining and not losing a top free agent WR in his prime who already knows the offense.

(01-20-2024, 08:12 PM)impactplaya Wrote: That's the thing...." I think we can replace him in the draft "
You are taking a gamble if you aren't sure you 
Can replace Tee in the draft. It's interesting how much
JaMarr and Joe really value Tee and WANT HIM BACK

Chase & Burrow have nothiing to dow with Higgins signing at this point.  They made it clear they want him back, it is up to Tee and the team to agree.  If they dont they dont, it is the the business side of the NFL, Joe and Chase understand that.

(01-20-2024, 08:42 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: That doesn’t mean it’s a smart move for the bengals. Of course Joe and Jamarr want their friend to get paid and come back. Who wouldn’t. Tee seems like an awesome teammate and young guy.

Bengals draft WR well, especially when picking one in rounds 1 or 2. If we can get him for a contract that puts him in the range of 20th paid wr, then I’m for it. But this 4 year 80-100M range is just too much. And I love Tee. One of my favorite bengals. But we have bigger needs. Look at Baltimore and KC have better teams with less weapons. That’s bc they have great defenses. We need to invest in a DT and an another DE. I’d let it ride with the Corners bc we’ve invested so much draft capital there. Tag and trade Tee. Sign a DT, DE, RB, TE. RT round 1, WR round 2 and LG round 2 (tee trade).

The Ravens offense carried that team this year. What was so different?
Well they replaced Roman with Todd Monken. They added Odell Beckham on 
A very affordable contract. Drafted Zay Flowers which was a Homerun pick. But Monken 
Really is the X factor. He added play action to the Ravens offense.
Incredible balance with 27 passing TDs and 21 rushing TDs.

Defensively yeah the Ravens are really good. Roquan Smith was a savy 
Trade by them last year. Signing Clowney was a good move. He outplayed 
San Hubbard who costs alot more. Kyle Hamilton is a top 5 Safety.
The Ravens have simply drafted well on defense and added well through trades 
And FA. The Ravens have a defense I wish the Bengsls had.
Playmakers and good tacklers at all levels 

(01-21-2024, 01:22 AM)impactplaya Wrote: The Ravens offense carried that team this year. What was so different?
Well they replaced Roman with Todd Monken. They added Odell Beckham on 
A very affordable contract. Drafted Zay Flowers which was a Homerun pick. But Monken 
Really is the X factor. He added play action to the Ravens offense.
Incredible balance with 27 passing TDs and 21 rushing TDs.

Defensively yeah the Ravens are really good. Roquan Smith was a savy 
Trade by them last year. Signing Clowney was a good move. He outplayed 
San Hubbard who costs alot more. Kyle Hamilton is a top 5 Safety.
The Ravens have simply drafted well on defense and added well through trades 
And FA. The Ravens have a defense I wish the Bengsls had.
Playmakers and good tacklers at all levels 

?

Their defense was 1st in scoring, 1st in sacks, 1st in turnovers.

Sure hope so. I really want him back.

(01-19-2024, 04:59 PM)2MinutesHate Wrote: Spotrac has his market value at $18.6 million/yr for 4 years.  Even that seems like it's just a shade high.  I don't think Tee is a WR1 really.  Chase draws the double coverage mostly, but Tee's numbers should've been much better over the last 3 years.  I think he finds a sucker to pay him WR1 money if we don't tag him.

He's has injured his right hamstring in each of his 5 years in the league.  We ignored the signs with AJ Green and all the red flags are there with Tee.  Let's get someone new in there Round 2 and having Burrow automatically makes the rookie that much better.  I like the savings of $14+ million a year or so with a rookie and use that money to upgrade the OL.

18.6 seems ridiculously low for a WR of his ability even if you consider is injury history. On the open market he is probably looking at 25 million per year.