(02-07-2024, 05:11 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If your rookie pans out, you still have quality depth in case of an injury.

But from a snaps perspective, that player holds little value unless they see the field.

The 18th pick last year (Jack Campbell) cost $3.7 mill APY on his rookie contract, excluding the 5th year option.
Jack Campbell played 639 defensive snaps for the Lions, offering immediate value.

I'd ideally like to get contributions like that from whatever 1st rounder is selected, regardless of position.
Although if the team performs well and gets to the Super Bowl without needing immediate rookie contributions, that works too.
I just don't think that's really achievable for this Bengals team who is starting to lose some of its veteran talent and young core starting to cost more $$.

(02-07-2024, 05:16 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: Yes, I understood that.  It is still half of what would be paid to Onwenu or even Jonah.  I like Onwenu more but not at 14.5 million

I'll take Onwenu at 14M AND I am ok with drafting a RT at #18 (Mims for example).  If Mims is ready to roll, I slide Onwenu to LG and have Volson as depth.  He is a very expensive OG sure, but so what?  So is Thuney.  Thuney also played OT in emergency situations because he could.  Onwenu can play OT better than Thuney when needed.

(02-07-2024, 05:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: But from a snaps perspective, that player holds little value unless they see the field.

The 18th pick last year (Jack Campbell) cost $3.7 mill APY on his rookie contract, excluding the 5th year option.
Jack Campbell played 639 defensive snaps for the Lions, offering immediate value.

I'd ideally like to get contributions like that from whatever 1st rounder is selected, regardless of position.
Although if the team performs well and gets to the Super Bowl without needing immediate rookie contributions, that works too.
I just don't think that's really achievable for this Bengals team who is starting to lose some of its veteran talent and young core starting to cost more $$.

I kinda agree with this for most positions, but not oline.  At least not when we are NOT getting above average production.  If Burrow is the key to everything, oline becomes the the most vital unit, IMO.  Having quality depth for injuries or just poor play would be a great thing to have.

(02-07-2024, 04:58 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Or if the 18th pick doesn't actually start their first year or two, are you ok with a 1st rounder playing very little to no snaps their first year or two?

This is the million dollar question for me. I'm a big fan of the OT class and have been all year, but I think more is made of their... plug & play-ness than is warranted. I'm not even talking about whether I like them or not. I'm just saying whether they're ready to do whatever they do, and most of them are not even close imo. Paul, Mims, Guyton, Kingsley, Fautanu and others who'll be around at 18- it'll take time not just for them to be good, but to be even passable. So it almost necessitates signing a free agent anyway.

To some extent it's a function of how good we are. We already have great expectations as a team and it's hard to see many of these players being plugged right into a Super Bowl lineup. On another team with a better OL foundation like Detroit or Philly? Sure. But we're nowhere near that category. We don't have the same margin for error. 

I think Latham is the exception. And I don't know how I feel about Fuaga yet. He could be too. But otherwise I think whoever we take will have to be stashed for a year regardless, and like you said, I'm not sure we're willing to make that investment. 

(02-07-2024, 02:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe I haven't invested enough time looking into the non-1st rounder OT guys, but I'm not overly confident they'd find an immediate starter at OT after 18.

What the Bengals cannot afford, IMO, is either:
1) Putting a rookie RT out there who is not ready to be solid-or-better from Game 1. We can't afford a learning curve throughout the year, as it could derail the season.
2) Using another 1st (or even 2nd) round pick for someone who hardly plays any offensive/defensive snaps as a rookie. Bengals really need to understand their window is now, not 3-5 years from now.
3) Dumping a decent amount of $$ toward a stopgap FA only for a rookie to overtake that player. That money could have gone toward another position in FA or gotten an even better player at another position.

They need to very calculated and deliberate in who they add in FA and draft such that they are getting the most out of all added players specifically in 2024 and 2025.

We need to abandon the draft plans of the past relying on a day 1 starter at any position, but x2 for a RT.

My hope is we have our starters addressed in FA before the draft, then we can use the BPA strategy to shore up positions with an eye towards future positions of need.

Great thougts.

(02-07-2024, 03:37 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Quality starting rookies at OT are usually found in the Top 15 picks, not even the entire 1st round.  Hoping to find a starter in round 2 is risky, expecting a starter any round after that should be considered grounds for firing.  There are always some exceptions, a player goes to the right team with the right oline coach..... but we are far from that.


As I said before, address EVERY starting need in free agency.  Also in free agency address clear depth needs with cheap vets that could be replaced by a rookie or an ascending practice squad player.  

This allows BPA to be taken in every round, this is how solid rosters top to bottom are built.

While we have a lot of cash, I do not think we have enough to address every need via FA. 

WR2 will be expensive, Tee or not. DT/NT will be expensive, whether DJ Reader is back or not. Then RT, WR3, TE, another CB, interior pass rush, a Tupou upgrade, a punter. Some will have to be left for the draft. 

RT and WR are particilarly deep. 

I am on record of trying to go Tee + Reader + DT big fish instead of the fill every (or most) need route. That would be my play B if we strike out on Wilkins/Madubuike/Williams (as is likely). 

A guy like Eluemenor eould be a great get at $6 mil per. Or possibly less. He is good enough to start and is a Williams upgrade for less money. He might be gettable for a low enough $$ that a Tee + DJ + DT pass rusher is still in play if we get creative with other contracts. And even if not, we'd have enough left to go get a quality TE, CB, WR3. Plus, he'd open up the draft, though OT should still be in play at 18. 

I think we should go where the value is in FA. DT/NT, RT, TE, WR3, CB, & S would be where I sniff. Landing a good player for good value, at any of those spots, may be mire important than getting a guy at a particilular spot. BVA (best value available). 

(02-07-2024, 05:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: We need to abandon the draft plans of the past relying on a day 1 starter at any position, but x2 for a RT.

My hope is we have our starters addressed in FA before the draft, then we can use the BPA strategy to shore up positions with an eye towards future positions of need.

Great thougts.

In an ideal scenario, Bengals get a solid-or-better starter at RT, NT, TE, and WR in FA.
Then try to draft a high-potential player in Rds 1-3 to use as rotational pieces and/or guy who can be a quality starter within a year or so.

My reasoning for saying they might need to get some immediate contributors/starters in the draft is because I feel they're not going to properly address every spot in FA as we would like.

(02-07-2024, 05:10 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Just to clarify, Eluemunor's projection of 7.25 is per year.  The thin OT free agent market likely drives up the prices.

But the loaded draft class could drive them back down.

Personally, if there is one spot where I don't mind a well paid backup, it is OL.

Injuries to the OL probably cost us 2 SBs. I'd have kept Collins last year as a reserve.

If one guy is on rookie scale, it is easier.

A value friendly Jonah upgrade + a pick at 18 (especially if raw like Mims or Guyton) + bring back Ford.

We could just cut Carman/Smith, put them on the PS, and save a buck or two on the cap.

(02-07-2024, 06:56 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: But the loaded draft class could drive them back down.

Not for oline, WR sure - especially for WR2 or 3.  But teams want experience on the oline and when there are only 3-4 choices the price escalates.  They know that after the first 3-4 top OTs the chances are very slim they will get a Day 1 ready player.

(02-07-2024, 06:53 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: While we have a lot of cash, I do not think we have enough to address every need via FA. 

WR2 will be expensive, Tee or not. DT/NT will be expensive, whether DJ Reader is back or not. Then RT, WR3, TE, another CB, interior pass rush, a Tupou upgrade, a punter. Some will have to be left for the draft. 

RT and WR are particilarly deep. 

I am on record of trying to go Tee + Reader + DT big fish instead of the fill every (or most) need route. That would be my play B if we strike out on Wilkins/Madubuike/Williams (as is likely). 

A guy like Eluemenor eould be a great get at $6 mil per. Or possibly less. He is good enough to start and is a Williams upgrade for less money. He might be gettable for a low enough $$ that a Tee + DJ + DT pass rusher is still in play if we get creative with other contracts. And even if not, we'd have enough left to go get a quality TE, CB, WR3. Plus, he'd open up the draft, though OT should still be in play at 18. 

I think we should go where the value is in FA. DT/NT, RT, TE, WR3, CB, & S would be where I sniff. Landing a good player for good value, at any of those spots, may be mire important than getting a guy at a particilular spot. BVA (best value available). 

I am not saying to fill every need with an A+ replacement.  But yes fill every starter need with a player that is good enough to start (like Karrs) and depth positions with discounted players (like Eli Apple).

(02-07-2024, 05:29 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I kinda agree with this for most positions, but not oline.  At least not when we are NOT getting above average production.  If Burrow is the key to everything, oline becomes the the most vital unit, IMO.  Having quality depth for injuries or just poor play would be a great thing to have.

It feels like the Bengals have a lot invested into the OL, but looking at positional spending, maybe the Bengals aren't as much as I thought.

Bengals 2024 cap spending by position rank (before FA/draft):
DL - 4th highest in the league
LB - 19th highest
DB - 27th highest
OL - 21st highest (this goes up to 19th in 2025, 14th in 2026)
TE - Tied for last
RB/FB - 11th highest
WR - 26th highest
QB - 15th highest (Burrow only $29.7 mill against the cap this year)

WR is going to jump up a lot depending on what they do with Chase (and Higgins) in the coming couple years
RB is going to likely go down after 2024 once Mixon hits FA next year.

Maybe the Bengals could (should?) worry less about high-cost positions like WR, DL, CB and put first priority on OL to start FA?
Maybe Onwenu would be considered "good enough" to spend that extra $$ to finally solidify the OL.
I don't think there's much of a shot of moving Volson out of LG though, which I know was mentioned elsewhere. After 2 years and actually seeing improvement across that time, LG feels pretty locked, to me.

(02-07-2024, 06:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: In an ideal scenario, Bengals get a solid-or-better starter at RT, NT, TE, and WR in FA.
Then try to draft a high-potential player in Rds 1-3 to use as rotational pieces and/or guy who can be a quality starter within a year or so.

My reasoning for saying they might need to get some immediate contributors/starters in the draft is because I feel they're not going to properly address every spot in FA as we would like.

Maybe also a Chidobe Awuzie level Corner in FA.

What may concern the Bengals most and lead to more Free Agency money sent that way ?

Highest FA Concern ?
NT - The DJ Reader decision and/or replacement/depth
RT - Just how good of a Free Agent can they get - Bring back Jonah ? or Someone close to/below his level/price or a 1 year guy then Draft

May or may not be a FA Concern ?                                          
WR - All depends on the TEE decision & Boyd coming back is an option - What level/price Free Agents may be in play if 1 or both go ?

Lowest FA Concern ?
Corner - Bring Chido back or someone his level  or  a 1 year guy like they did with Sidney Jones last year in Free Agency but not Jones
TE - Bring some of their guys back & Just go to the 1 year FA well again & maybe Draft one or spend more on a TE Free Agent this year
Guard - 1 year guy Cody Ford type for depth  or try to upgrade a challenger for Volson

(02-07-2024, 07:31 PM)depthchart Wrote: Maybe also a Chidobe Awuzie level Corner in FA.

What may concern the Bengals most and lead to more Free Agency money sent that way ?

Highest FA Concern ?
NT - The DJ Reader decision and/or replacement/depth
RT - Just how good of a Free Agent can they get - Bring back Jonah ? or Someone close to/below his level/price or a 1 year guy then Draft

May or may not be a FA Concern ?                                          
WR - All depends on the TEE decision & Boyd coming back is an option - What level/price Free Agents may be in play if 1 or both go ?

Lowest FA Concern ?
Corner - Bring Chido back or someone his level  or  a 1 year guy like they did with Sidney Jones last year in Free Agency but not Jones
TE - Bring some of their guys back & Just go to the 1 year FA well again & maybe Draft one or spend more on a TE Free Agent this year
Guard - 1 year guy Cody Ford type for depth  or try to upgrade a challenger for Volson

I know this will be crazy, but I'm gonna create a thread for people to post their FA signing plan to try to cover all the open spots so that the draft can be used strictly for depth.

(02-07-2024, 07:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It feels like the Bengals have a lot invested into the OL, but looking at positional spending, maybe the Bengals aren't as much as I thought.

Bengals 2024 cap spending by position rank (before FA/draft):
DL - 4th highest in the league
LB - 19th highest
DB - 27th highest
OL - 21st highest (this goes up to 19th in 2025, 14th in 2026)
TE - Tied for last
RB/FB - 11th highest
WR - 26th highest
QB - 15th highest (Burrow only $29.7 mill against the cap this year)

WR is going to jump up a lot depending on what they do with Chase (and Higgins) in the coming couple years
RB is going to likely go down after 2024 once Mixon hits FA next year.

Maybe the Bengals could (should?) worry less about high-cost positions like WR, DL, CB and put first priority on OL to start FA?
Maybe Onwenu would be considered "good enough" to spend that extra $$ to finally solidify the OL.
I don't think there's much of a shot of moving Volson out of LG though, which I know was mentioned elsewhere. After 2 years and actually seeing improvement across that time, LG feels pretty locked, to me.

The fact that we are spending more money than the production we are getting is simply a derogatory mark against the front office.  This really has nothing to do with actually fixing the problem.  If the problem is not the offense, or the oline coach, then it has to be the players...right?  

When a team is as pathetic as we have been with this unit the only way to fix it is to dump even more resources into it; draft capital and cash.  We can then hope that it becomes a numbers game.  It is a sad situation and in my opinion reflects terribly on the embarrassingly small scouting department. 

It's wasteful to overspend on a FA who can't perform; it's not wasteful if they have to backup an high quality player on their first contract.
Eleumunor at 6'3" 330lb 29 yr. is exactly the kind of player we need. He has G/RT flexibility and his cost/age won't stop the Bengals from keep working to improve.

IMO the dude is older and no better than Cody Ford.

I get the pff score debate, but I don't always understand it.

Cody played 78 snaps last year, looked good on the eye test, gave up 0 sacks or penalties and scored 53.9

Jermaine gave up 5 penalties and 6 sacks in 900 snaps and scored 68.5

(02-07-2024, 08:51 PM)bfine32 Wrote: IMO the dude is older and no better than Cody Ford.

I get the pff score debate, but I don't always understand it.

Cody played 78 snaps last year, looked good on the eye test, gave up 0 sacks or penalties and scored 53.9

Jermaine gave up 5 penalties and 6 sacks in 900 snaps and scored 68.5

Cody Ford doesnt even pass the eye test.  He was horrible in preseason and most wondered how he even made the team.   In the limited amount of snaps he took in regular season he looked just as bad.  Im not surprised by the 53.9 Pff score.  Jonah allowed 8 sacks and finished with a PFF grade not that much better than Ford at 58.5 but would anyone rather have Ford at RT vs Jonah when Jonah gave up 8 sacks and graded out close to Ford?

(02-07-2024, 03:31 PM)Whatever Wrote: Another factor (one folks will kill me for), is do they have enough confidence in Smith or Carman to start at RT at least part of the year while a draft pick develops?

I wouldn't kill you for it but it's something that i don't even want to consider. That's what the Bengals have been doing. Get what they think is a "good enough" talent or draft someone to develop. It's not been working. They need to get serious and get it right this year. They need to build a wall first and foremost. They have good enough talent throughout the roster to compete and they have the QB. 

They have to get it through their thick heads that you need to pay to put guys in front of your franchise to protect him and give him time to do what he does. He's the one and only guy, active in the league today, that has beaten Mahomes and the Chiefs to get to the SB. They FAFO when Aaron Donald pulled the Lombardi right out of their hands and again the next year when Chris Jones ***** slapped Adeniji to end that season. 

Eluemunor falls into that category of "good", without being a top line FA but he's clearly better than who has played there the last 3 seasons. Volson is too volatile to keep giving him seasons to progress. He finally started to play better for a stretch late this year before reverting the last couple games. If they could pry a guy like Cushenberry away from Denver or Biadasz from Dallas, they could move Karras to LG and have clearly the best line Burrow has had in front of him here. Brown Jr - Karras - Cush/Bia - Cappa - Eluemunor and then pray like the dickens for health.

I'm not really interested in drafting Oline at all this year. Grab 2 seemingly affordable guys and use the picks for other positions. I'd rather do this than pay a big bag to Madubuike and put spackle on the Oline again. 

The Bengals probably wouldn't want to do this because it means moving Karras, but whatever. Keep doing stupid shit and falling short. 

Make every effort to sign Tee, not tag him (i know...this goes against what i've stated in the past) and front-load his contract so that you can redo Chase next year and back-load his, balancing out the 2 over the next 4 years or so. Get more speed at the RB position. Brown was a good start but they need to use him more. I wanted Gibbs so bad last year...

I was reading talk about the CB position but i didn't see too much talk about Awuzie. I think he's a must sign. They should be able to get him cheaper now due to the injury last year. 

(02-07-2024, 07:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It feels like the Bengals have a lot invested into the OL, but looking at positional spending, maybe the Bengals aren't as much as I thought...

The Bengals did have the 6th highest paid offensive line this year.  The reason they dont show up higher for 2024 is because Jonah is a free agent and no longer counts.  Depending on who they get to replace Jonah, they could jump right back up into the top 10 again.