(03-27-2024, 12:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote:
Who in FA though is going to really do anything about that?
Adding an outside CB doesn't really do much for run defense.
There isn't really any IDL left who is going to be a stud against the run.
The Bengals will not move to 3-LB sets, and even if they did, they'd be running Pratt, Wilson, and ADG.

What I expect more to happen against these run-heavy teams is going 5 DL more frequently.

See my previous post. Maybe a run stuffing DT is cut after the draft for those teams in cap hell. 

(03-27-2024, 01:36 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: See my previous post. Maybe a run stuffing DT is cut after the draft for those teams in cap hell. 

Definitely a possibility.

(03-27-2024, 12:13 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: That cap space may be needed more than we think. All of our AFC North rivals have significantly improved their rushing attack in the offseason; look at Baltimore adding Derrick Henry and adding Cordarrelle Patterson gives the Steelers another option alongside Najee Harris.

Ravens added Henry, but also lost 3 OL starters from 2023.

(03-27-2024, 01:05 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That's what you get when you run a 4-2-5 or a 5-1-5.
It's gonna be focused on pass defense.

If Bengals want to move to more of a traditional 4-3-4, they need another run-stuffing LB.
Personally, I don't think it happens, as the Bengals want to be built to go against the Chiefs and Bills, not the run-heavy teams (who all floundered in the playoffs btw).

With the addition of Stone and Bell returning, the idea of a 5-1-5 actually seems like a viable plan versus the run heavy teams.

(03-27-2024, 01:33 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I stand corrected on my previous post on cap space.

It is very confusing. I looked at other teams as well. Based on cap space and practice squad now many teams are way over the cap. I found that comforting knowing we have cap space when everything is accounted for, but team like Browns are 20 million over the cap.

This means post June 1st and after the draft some teams will be forced to cut players. They won't be able to cut enough scrubs, they will cut bigger money cap hits.

You are not wrong. I mean, all the sites use the offseason number. It is technically correct, that is how much space we have via the offseadon rules. Which are different from the in-season rules. 

You are completely correct about it being confusing. It took me months to figure out if the PS counted or not, and when. Why top 51 sometimes and not others. 

And then you have the thing with how the draft picks are calculated. With FA first, the displacement stuff is genetally correct. You cannot just add up the salary for our 10 picks and add it to our cap number. That's not how it will shake out.

The FRP is gonna make $2.7 mil but the cap effect will likely be closer to $1.7 because he is dispacing someone already factored into the cap number instead of an open spot. How much is gonna depend on who gets dropped and what their salary is. 

Once you get to the 3rd round picks, those guys are likely dispacing guys who make equal, or possibly MORE money, and thus could actually help the cap instead of hurting it. 

Picking where we pick this year, I guestimate a cap increase of around $2 mil from all the picks. But how many make the team, who gets cut, all impact it. 

Really, the off season cap numbers do not take into account: 

1) The full 53 man roster (51 only) ($2 mil-ish)
2) The Practice Squad cost ($4 mil-ish) 
3) Cost of high/er priced draftees ($2 mil-ish)

And then you have jerks like me or folks on twitter or the internet throwing out numbers but not saying how they got there or what they did or did not take into account. 

So you get a bunch of different numbers which is very confusing. And that does not get into post June cuts and stuff like that. 

For me, I just try to get to 53 guys with a combo of the guys we have signed who were on the 53 last year & draft pick salaries I know will make the team (Day 1 & Day 2). If that isn't 53, then go to vet min FA types (Tupou, T. Williams, etc) or lower draft picks until you hit 53. Then add in the guestimate for the PS. 

It won't be exact, obviously. But within a mil or two. It most definitely requires a spreadsheet. 
Whenever we sign/cut someone, I plug that new number in & see what happens. 

At the moment, I have 50 guys slotted into the 53 that we have signed + The 1st & 2nd round pick salaries + a vet min guy for 53 (basically a wash with a 3rd round pick) + the PS guess. I put all the Furure's/PS guys onto the PS at their compensation levels for PS at their exp level (11 guys) and went,/with more expensive guys on the last 5 spots. 

I probably am underestimating our space by a little. I don't bake in any savings from late round picks making the roster and my PS estimate is probably a bit high. But, we are talking by $500k for the PS and $200k of saving in most cases for a late pick making it. 

(03-27-2024, 03:02 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: You are not wrong. I mean, all the sites use the offseason number. It is technically correct, that is how much space we have via the offseadon rules. Which are different from the in-season rules. 

You are completely correct about it being confusing. It took me months to figure out if the PS counted or not, and when. Why top 51 sometimes and not others. 

And then you have the thing with how the draft picks are calculated. With FA first, the displacement stuff is genetally correct. You cannot just add up the salary for our 10 picks and add it to our cap number. That's not how it will shake out.

The FRP is gonna make $2.7 mil but the cap effect will likely be closer to $1.7 because he is dispacing someone already factored into the cap number instead of an open spot. How much is gonna depend on who gets dropped and what their salary is. 

Once you get to the 3rd round picks, those guys are likely dispacing guys who make equal, or possibly MORE money, and thus could actually help the cap instead of hurting it. 

Picking where we pick this year, I guestimate a cap increase of around $2 mil from all the picks. But how many make the team, who gets cut, all impact it. 

Really, the off season cap numbers do not take into account: 

1) The full 53 man roster (51 only) ($2 mil-ish)
2) The Practice Squad cost ($4 mil-ish) 
3) Cost of high/er priced draftees ($2 mil-ish)

And then you have jerks like me or folks on twitter or the internet throwing out numbers but not saying how they got there or what they did or did not take into account. 

So you get a bunch of different numbers which is very confusing. And that does not get into post June cuts and stuff like that. 

For me, I just try to get to 53 guys with a combo of the guys we have signed who were on the 53 last year & draft pick salaries I know will make the team (Day 1 & Day 2). If that isn't 53, then go to vet min FA types (Tupou, T. Williams, etc) or lower draft picks until you hit 53. Then add in the guestimate for the PS. 

It won't be exact, obviously. But within a mil or two. It most definitely requires a spreadsheet. 
Whenever we sign/cut someone, I plug that new number in & see what happens. 

At the moment, I have 50 guys slotted into the 53 that we have signed + The 1st & 2nd round pick salaries + a vet min guy for 53 (basically a wash with a 3rd round pick) + the PS guess. I put all the Furure's/PS guys onto the PS at their compensation levels for PS at their exp level (11 guys) and went,/with more expensive guys on the last 5 spots. 

I probably am underestimating our space by a little. I don't bake in any savings from late round picks making the roster and my PS estimate is probably a bit high. But, we are talking by $500k for the PS and $200k of saving in most cases for a late pick making it. 

TY for clarifying, I don't want to spread false info

Thanks also for the hard work, it is appreciated.

Clowney to Panthers. 2/$20. $24 max.

19 of NFL.com's top 101 still out there.

Pos, Player, Rank, Age
CB:
Gilmore, 16, 33
Nelson, 55, 31
A. Jackson, 58, 28
Witherspoon, 94, 29
----------
Howard, NR, 30

WR:
Beckham, 77, 31
Boyd, 81, 29
M. Thomas, 101, 31

IOL:
C. Williams, 51, 27
Peat, 92, 30
Risner, 100, 29

ESPN ranks 19: 

Howard, CB, 1 
C. Williams, C, 2 
Gillmore, CB, 6 
Nelson, CB, 7 
Risner, G, 9 
Beckham, WR, 10 
Jackson, CB, 11 
Boyd, WR, 13 
Renfrow, WR, 16 
Chalk, WR, 17 
M. Thomas, WR, 18 
Gallup, WR, 19 

They have Becton 4th and Tart 12th, FWIW. 

It is interesting Tyler Boyd has yet to sign anywhere. I have a hunch Steelers land him on a team friendly deal.

As team spend money, it removes some from competition to sign a couple of more free agents.

I don't think we are done, whether is guys available now or available after cuts due to draft and cap casualties I hope our FO has a plan.

Peat used to be a very good OL but fell out of favor in NO last year. Could he help us on a prove it deal like Clowney signed in 2023 for 2.5 million with Ravens?

It paid off for Clowney, huge contract from Carolina.

(03-27-2024, 02:29 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Definitely a possibility.

Confucius say, "never plan for a possibility".

(03-27-2024, 07:16 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It is interesting Tyler Boyd has yet to sign anywhere. I have a hunch Steelers land him on a team friendly deal.

As team spend money, it removes some from competition to sign a couple of more free agents.

I don't think we are done, whether is guys available now or available after cuts due to draft and cap casualties I hope our FO has a plan.

Peat used to be a very good OL but fell out of favor in NO last year. Could he help us on a prove it deal like Clowney signed in 2023 for 2.5 million with Ravens?

It paid off for Clowney, huge contract from Carolina.

The Steelers have signed 2 WRs they've moved on from Boyd

(03-27-2024, 02:34 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Ravens added Henry, but also lost 3 OL starters from 2023.

Also lost 2 defensive starters. So they lost 5 starters from last season but somehow adding a Derrick Henry with a LOT of wear on the treads makes them Super Bowl favorites?

(03-28-2024, 12:08 PM)Joelist Wrote: Also lost 2 defensive starters. So they lost 5 starters from last season but somehow adding a Derrick Henry with a LOT of wear on the treads makes them Super Bowl favorites?

Oddly enough, historically the Ravens have shown the ability to simply re-load at OL as well as on Defense, because they do a great job of drafting and developing players.

(03-28-2024, 11:30 AM)pally Wrote: The Steelers have signed 2 WRs they've moved on from Boyd

Yep, and they're putting all their money into the defense. It would not surprise me one bit to see Boyd re-sign right here.

(03-28-2024, 12:44 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Yep, and they're putting all their money into the defense. It would not surprise me one bit to see Boyd re-sign right here.

This is what I found for Boyd's possible Market Value and his price may be declining with Free Agency progressing &
with a fairly deep rookie receiver Group coming into the League. Maybe he ends up signing for 1 year.

• 2 yrs $16.5M, $8.25M APY, $7M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $4.5 million
  

(03-28-2024, 12:11 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Oddly enough, historically the Ravens have shown the ability to simply re-load at OL as well as on Defense, because they do a great job of drafting and developing players.

I agree, Ravens draft and develop players very well. The question becomes is due to cap constraints can they be better in 2024 losing 8 starters. I actually count 8 starters lost and one replaced.

Edwards - RB
Simpson - G
Zeitler - Guard
Moses - RT
Queen - LB
Stone - safety
Beckham - WR
Clowney - DE


Gain of Henry, also as of now Dobbins is not signed, but injuries have derailed him

(03-28-2024, 01:10 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I agree, Ravens draft and develop players very well. The question becomes is due to cap constraints can they be better in 2024 losing 8 starters. I actually count 8 starters lost and one replaced.

Edwards - RB
Simpson - G
Zeitler - Guard
Moses - RT
Queen - LB
Stone - safety
Beckham - WR


Gain of Henry, also as of now Dobbins is not signed, but injuries have derailed him

Bills took a big hit this year as well

(03-28-2024, 11:30 AM)pally Wrote: The Steelers have signed 2 WRs they've moved on from Boyd

They lost their #1 WR Johnson via trade and If you are counting Patterson, he has not played WR in a long time, he was converted to a RB

(03-28-2024, 11:09 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Confucius say, "never plan for a possibility".

Confucius knows what's up. Just wouldn't surprise me when all is said and done we have a good run stopping NT after cuts.

(03-28-2024, 12:08 PM)Joelist Wrote: Also lost 2 defensive starters. So they lost 5 starters from last season but somehow adding a Derrick Henry with a LOT of wear on the treads makes them Super Bowl favorites?

(03-28-2024, 12:11 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Oddly enough, historically the Ravens have shown the ability to simply re-load at OL as well as on Defense, because they do a great job of drafting and developing players.

The Rats also lost their DC who was a genius, this is honestly the biggest blow to the Rats no one is talking about.

(03-28-2024, 02:37 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Confucius knows what's up. Just wouldn't surprise me when all is said and done we have a good run stopping NT after cuts.



The Rats also lost their DC who was a genius, this is honestly the biggest blow to the Rats no one is talking about.

Great point, the new guy has to figure out the new pieces and make ll the defensive calls McDonald made. 

We will see, but on paper Ravens are not better in 2024, not yet at least. Another factor is they lost their backup QB who played a lot the past 2 seasons when Jackson was hurt.