(06-18-2024, 11:21 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: They have Brandon Aiyuk at #2. He’s never even had a 1400 yard season.

That's not what they are ranking.

They are ranking based on their PFF rating in 2023, and Aiyuk had the second-highest in 2023.
Nico Collins was rated 3rd highest.

Aiyuk did pretty well putting up 1342 yards and 7 TDs on just 105 targets. 
Chase, by comparison, put up just 1216 yards and 7 TDs on 145 targets.
Davante Adams (who Aiyuk outproduced) had 175 targets last year.

Aiyuk had a great season that would have been truly elite had he gotten top-tier target numbers.

(06-18-2024, 10:45 AM)jason Wrote: This also clearly illustrates that agents work for the player and not the other way around. There's been a lot of talk that Tee's agent is a bad guy and difficult. Tee signing earlier and ensuring he'll be at camp shows that Jesse Bates was steering the ship in his difficult negotiations with the Bengals.

I wouldn't say that's true: they have the same agent, one was bitching and complaining himself, the other was quiet and humble and expressing that he wanted to stick around.

I think the players drove the course in both situations.

(06-18-2024, 03:36 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I wouldn't say that's true: they have the same agent, one was bitching and complaining himself, the other was quiet and humble and expressing that he wanted to stick around.

I think the players drove the course in both situations.

Yeah... That's my point. People have trashed David whatever his name is acting like he's the reason Bates was difficult and Tee requested a trade.

(06-18-2024, 11:42 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That's not what they are ranking.

They are ranking based on their PFF rating in 2023, and Aiyuk had the second-highest in 2023.
Nico Collins was rated 3rd highest.

Aiyuk did pretty well putting up 1342 yards and 7 TDs on just 105 targets. 
Chase, by comparison, put up just 1216 yards and 7 TDs on 145 targets.
Davante Adams (who Aiyuk outproduced) had 175 targets last year.

Aiyuk had a great season that would have been truly elite had he gotten top-tier target numbers.

Right, I was responding to rfaulk’s post about yards though. You can have a high PFF grade and not put up particularly big numbers.

(06-18-2024, 10:45 AM)jason Wrote: This also clearly illustrates that agents work for the player and not the other way around. There's been a lot of talk that Tee's agent is a bad guy and difficult. Tee signing earlier and ensuring he'll be at camp shows that Jesse Bates was steering the ship in his difficult negotiations with the Bengals.

Easier for fans to make the agent the bad guy instead of the player they are emotionally invested in.  

Personally that play at the goal line turning himself into a human pretzel reaching across his body for the TD was $22 million bucks worth of tag.. I kind of doubt Tee is back next year, but you never know what kind of financial magic teams can come up with at the  last minute. If they do manage to keep both Tee and Chase next year I want to be three flies on the walls of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland and try to not drown in their tears. 

(06-19-2024, 12:33 PM)Whatever Wrote: Easier for fans to make the agent the bad guy instead of the player they are emotionally invested in.  

I don't see either as "the bad guys". It's big business. It's not AS IF fans tune in to watch a short clip each game of team owners sitting in their luxury boxes. When was the last time you couldn't wait to see Mikey blowing his nose in his luxury box ? 

(06-19-2024, 12:47 PM)grampahol Wrote: Personally that play at the goal line turning himself into a human pretzel reaching across his body for the TD was $22 million bucks worth of tag.. I kind of doubt Tee is back next year, but you never know what kind of financial magic teams can come up with at the  last minute. If they do manage to keep both Tee and Chase next year I want to be three flies on the walls of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland and try to not drown in their tears. 

well hopefully we won't be having tears soon if the rumor comes true of Aiyuk going to Steelers, that would probably put Steelers with best WR core in our division especially if you consider Tight End.

(06-20-2024, 08:47 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: well hopefully we won't be having tears soon if the rumor comes true of Aiyuk going to Steelers, that would probably put Steelers with best WR core in our division especially if you consider Tight End.

Lol, no.

(06-19-2024, 12:47 PM)grampahol Wrote: Personally that play at the goal line turning himself into a human pretzel reaching across his body for the TD was $22 million bucks worth of tag.. 

Even though Tee is auditioning for his contract for next year's new team, I'm not so sure we're going to be seeing too many of those plays this year.  I don't think he puts himself at too much risk.  Blow out a knee and it's pretty much over for him.  I can understand why players hate the tag.

I'm actually thinking Burton may have close to as many yards as Tee this season as he's playing for that WR2 spot that should pay quite well if he gets it.  I don't see Tee cracking 1,000 yards this season and may regret not settling for less for the protection of a long-term contract.
I'm pretty pumped about Burton for sure.

Apologies, this is a cap post, so it will be long.

But the upshot is, I think we could keep Higgins at a pretty big number ($25 mil) if we are so inclined.

Always show your work.

1. 2025 Estimated Cap = $260 mil (OTC).

That is only +$5 mil from this year, and does not include any rollover. You know there will be rollover. We have, at eorst, $15.6 in space atm (counting 53 + 2 PUP recalls + $4+ mil for the PS). Yes, extensions for Chase or McPherson may take a bite once the signing bonuses get pro-rated.

But I still think we are gonna be looking at around $270 mil with the rollover + a slightly larger cap jump.

1. Signed starter level guys = 18 for $183,627,151. $86,372,849 in cap.

Offense (9): Burrow, Moss, Chase, WR2, WR3/TE2, D. Sample, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa, Mims.

Defense (8): Hendrickson, DT/NT, Rankins, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, CB3 (slot), SS, Stone.

Specials (1): PK, McNamara/Robbins, LS.

Yes, I am assuming Mims is the 2025 RT starter.
---------------

2. Reserve Locks and/or Possible Starters = 11 for $18,538,044. $202,165,195 for 29 players. Cap space $67,834,805.

Browning, C. Brown, Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Murphy, Jenkins, M. Jackson, D. Hill, Battle.
-----------

3. Inner Fringe/Reserves = 6 for $6,993,111. $209,158,306 for 35 players. $60,841,684 in cap.

McLachlan; Carter, Harper, Newton, Ivey, Anderson

These guys are signed thru 2025. Whether these particular guys make the team or somebody else does, their role, and most likely pay, is gonna be pretty similar. Rd 3-7 picks, vet min types, or Irwin types who make the leap from the PS.
---------

4. Outer Fringe/Reserves = 3 for $2,969,481. $212,127,787 for 38 players. $57,872,213 in cap space.

Lee, C. Johnson, Anthony.

Again, not sure these particular guys are still around, but some close approximation will be. Late round picks or UDFA's who make the team or young/vet min guys. The cap hit will be similar. These guys are currently signed.
------------

5. Practice squad cap hit = $4 mil estimate. $53,872,213 in space. 38 players.

This is a guess. Do we carry 16 every week? How many with more experience (up to 6 with 4+)?
----------

Reset. 15 open roster spots. Nearly $54 mil in space.

In terms of starting spots open/starters who are FAs, I count 8: RT: WR2 Higgins (Iosivas?, Burton?), RT T. Brown (Mims), TE/WR3 Gesicki (All?); DT BJ Hill (Jenkins/Jackson?), Slot CB Hilton (Turner or D. Hill?), SS Bell (Battle?); PK McPherson, LS Adomitis.

There are pretty plausible replacements for most guys already in the roster, save for the ST guys, so let's allocate roughly $4 mil to take care of McPherson ($3 mil) and Adomitis ($1 mil).

6. Specials locked up = 2 for $4 mil. $49,872,213 in space. 40 players. 13 spots.
-----------------

7. FA Analysis: where could we spend BIG to fill holes?

A) RT? Nope. I think Mims will be the starter by 2025, if not sooner. I could see a medium spend to retain Brown (Sample & ADG are both making good backup money) to be the swing OT, but no way we spend big on OT with OBJ & Mims locked in.

B) Slot WR/TE. Boyd spot (Gesicki/Burton). Nope.

IDK how we will treat this spot. All indicators are we will run some 12 (Gesicki, Hudson, All, McLachlan). Various WRs will be here at different times (Chase, Jones, Irwin, & Burton).

If spending big on Tee is questionable, no way we do it on the slot spot. I could see a medium spend to bring Gesicki back if things go well. But I think All was brought in to be the everydown 2 way TE once healthy. Sample as the backup. McLachan as future TE3/4.

Burton, Iosivas, Jones are all locked up for 2025. Irwin likely available for fairly cheap & dependable. I feel confident one or more of these guys can be an effective WR3. Though WR2 may be a reach.

C) DT/NT. BJ Hill.

Hopefully Jenkins & Jackson develop into at keast rotational run stopping DTs/NTs. Pass rush likely further away. Carter is also signed thru 2025.

I could see a big spend (or high pick used) at DT, easily. Maybe that is a Hill rerurn. Maybe a FA. Likely for pass rush, though if Jenkins/Jackson struggle, maybe a Reader replacement.

D) Slot corner. Hilton. Nope.

I could see a medium spend to bring Hilton back. Or a solid vet. Hill, Turner, Ivey, & Newton all have slot experience. As does Davis. Now, if Turner & Hill struggle outside, I could see a big spend/high pick on CB1, and moving them inside. But not a big CB3 spend.

E) SS. Bell. Nope.

We did not pay Bates. We have Battle. A medium spend for Bell again or a Stone type in FA, or a pick could happen if Battle struggles..

F) DE. Nope.

I guess if Murphy struggles we could spend on DE. Though with Hubbard & Hendrickson inked, I think that is unlikely yo be a BIG spend. A pick or medium vet more likely.

G) LG. Maybe.

If Volson struggles I could see a big FA spend on a G next year. Or at least a mid.

A lot will depend on some guys do this year, be it the FAs or their potential replacements or other guys on the roster (Ossai?). Where to spend & how much & on who?

But we have $54 mil and it seems WR2, DT, and CB1 are the only real logical places to spend big.
--------------

8) Getting Real

Of course, that number is way high. We have 13 spots to fill and won't spend to the line.

Our top two picks this year make just over $4 mil. We should pick later next year, so assume we spend a touch less this year. A touch under $4 mil turns that $53.8 to $50 mil with 42 spots filled and 11 open. Assume they also plug at least 2 holes. Be it one we ID'd or not.

Assume we fill the 11 spots left with $1.2 mil vet min guys. 11x1.3 = $13,200,000. That would leave us with $36,800,000 to spend on those 11 spots beyond a min.

Worst case, we have WR2, WR3, RT, DT, CB, SS, LG, and DE needs of some sort approaching starter/rotation level. The draft takes 2. So 6.

If we pay Tee $25 mil next year, that leaves us $13 mil (displacement of $1.2) for overages on other spots + whatever cushion we want.

Things would need to go almost perfectly with Mims, Jenkins, Burton, All, Jackson, Newton, Murphy, Turner, D. Hill, and Battle for us to cut it that close. Or with T. Brown, Bell, Hilton, BJ Hill, and Gesicki coming back for cheap-ish. Possible but unlikely.

Note, that the same holds true with a big spend at another spot. It does not have to be Tee. Coukd be a DT, CB1, G, or DE.
-----------

9) FFS, restructure Burrow.

Restructuring Burrow could net us over $20 mil in cap savings if done after 2024 (I cannot find the bloody link).

If I am not off my rocker on that, then we'd have $70 mil in space with 11 spots open.

Offense: 17
QB: Burrow, Browning
RB: Moss; C. Brown
WR: Chase; Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones
TE: All; D. Sample, McLachlan
OT: O. Brown, Mims
OG: Cappa, Volson
C: Karras, Lee

Defense: 20
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Johnson
DT/NT: Rankins; Jenkins, M. Jackson, Carter
LB: Wilson, Pratt; Harper
CB: CTB, Turner; D. Hill, Newton, Ivey
S: Battle, Stone; Anderson, Anthony

Specials: 3
PK: McPherson
P: McNamara/Robbins
LS: Adomitis

Lets go the most expensive route and fill most of the starting spots with FAs except for Mims. Assume the 1st & 2nd in 2025 are bench guys.

11 spots. $70 mil.

WR2: Higgins ($25 mil tag)
WR3: Gesicki ($7 mil)
OT3: T. Brown ($6 mil)
CB3: Hilton ($6 mil)
SS: Bell ($6 mil)
DT: Hill ($10 mil)

That's $60 milfor 6 spots. Assume we are not totally daft and take 2 of CB/DE/OG in this scenario

We still have $10 mil left for 5 spots. $6.2 mil at mins. $3.8 mil cushion with no starting help from the draft class and next to no one stepping up to claim a starting spot.

That is with paying Tee $25 mil again AND paying to retain ALL our FAs at starting spots & no guys coming through.

Realistically some will. Extend Tee to lower yearly hit AND have a couple guys come through (Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Volson, Murphy, Jenkins, Jackson, Turner, D. Hill, Battle) and we could spend big at 2 spots in the offseason. WR, CB, DT, DE, OG is where I'd look/draft first.

---------

Sorry for dissertation. Bottom line, with a Burrow restructure and some guys coming good, I think we can spend some in FA next year. Be it Tee or another spot. Likely 2.

(06-21-2024, 07:54 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Apologies, this is a cap post, so it will be long.

But the upshot is, I think we could keep Higgins at a pretty big number ($25 mil) if we are so inclined.

Always show your work.

1. 2025 Estimated Cap = $260 mil (OTC).

That is only +$5 mil from this year, and does not include any rollover. You know there will be rollover. We have, at eorst, $15.6 in space atm (counting 53 + 2 PUP recalls + $4+ mil for the PS). Yes, extensions for Chase or McPherson may take a bite once the signing bonuses get pro-rated.

But I still think we are gonna be looking at around $270 mil with the rollover + a slightly larger cap jump.

1. Signed starter level guys = 18 for $183,627,151. $86,372,849 in cap.

Offense (9): Burrow, Moss, Chase, WR2, WR3/TE2, D. Sample, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa, Mims.

Defense (8): Hendrickson, DT/NT, Rankins, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, CB3 (slot), SS, Stone.

Specials (1): PK, McNamara/Robbins, LS.

Yes, I am assuming Mims is the 2025 RT starter.
---------------

2. Reserve Locks and/or Possible Starters = 11 for $18,538,044. $202,165,195 for 29 players. Cap space $67,834,805.

Browning, C. Brown, Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Murphy, Jenkins, M. Jackson, D. Hill, Battle.
-----------

3. Inner Fringe/Reserves = 6 for $6,993,111. $209,158,306 for 35 players. $60,841,684 in cap.

McLachlan; Carter, Harper, Newton, Ivey, Anderson

These guys are signed thru 2025. Whether these particular guys make the team or somebody else does, their role, and most likely pay, is gonna be pretty similar. Rd 3-7 picks, vet min types, or Irwin types who make the leap from the PS.
---------

4. Outer Fringe/Reserves = 3 for $2,969,481. $212,127,787 for 38 players. $57,872,213 in cap space.

Lee, C. Johnson, Anthony.

Again, not sure these particular guys are still around, but some close approximation will be. Late round picks or UDFA's who make the team or young/vet min guys. The cap hit will be similar. These guys are currently signed.
------------

5. Practice squad cap hit = $4 mil estimate. $53,872,213 in space. 38 players.

This is a guess. Do we carry 16 every week? How many with more experience (up to 6 with 4+)?
----------

Reset. 15 open roster spots. Nearly $54 mil in space.

In terms of starting spots open/starters who are FAs, I count 8: RT: WR2 Higgins (Iosivas?, Burton?), RT T. Brown (Mims), TE/WR3 Gesicki (All?); DT BJ Hill (Jenkins/Jackson?), Slot CB Hilton (Turner or D. Hill?), SS Bell (Battle?); PK McPherson, LS Adomitis.

There are pretty plausible replacements for most guys already in the roster, save for the ST guys, so let's allocate roughly $4 mil to take care of McPherson ($3 mil) and Adomitis ($1 mil).

6. Specials locked up = 2 for $4 mil. $49,872,213 in space. 40 players. 13 spots.
-----------------

7. FA Analysis: where could we spend BIG to fill holes?

A) RT? Nope. I think Mims will be the starter by 2025, if not sooner. I could see a medium spend to retain Brown (Sample & ADG are both making good backup money) to be the swing OT, but no way we spend big on OT with OBJ & Mims locked in.

B) Slot WR/TE. Boyd spot (Gesicki/Burton).  Nope.

IDK how we will treat this spot. All indicators are we will run some 12 (Gesicki, Hudson, All, McLachlan). Various WRs will be here at different times (Chase, Jones, Irwin, & Burton).

If spending big on Tee is questionable, no way we do it on the slot spot. I could see a medium spend to bring Gesicki back if things go well. But I think All was brought in to be the everydown 2 way TE once healthy. Sample as the backup. McLachan as future TE3/4.

Burton, Iosivas, Jones are all locked up for 2025. Irwin likely available for fairly cheap & dependable. I feel confident one or more of these guys can be an effective WR3. Though WR2 may be a reach.

C) DT/NT. BJ Hill.

Hopefully Jenkins & Jackson develop into at keast rotational run stopping DTs/NTs. Pass rush likely further away. Carter is also signed thru 2025.

I could see a big spend (or high pick used) at DT, easily. Maybe that is a Hill rerurn. Maybe a FA. Likely for pass rush, though if Jenkins/Jackson struggle, maybe a Reader replacement.

D) Slot corner. Hilton. Nope.

I could see a medium spend to bring Hilton back. Or a solid vet. Hill, Turner, Ivey, & Newton all have slot experience. As does Davis. Now, if Turner & Hill struggle outside, I could see a big spend/high pick on CB1, and moving them inside. But not a big CB3 spend.

E) SS. Bell. Nope.

We did not pay Bates. We have Battle. A medium spend for Bell again or a Stone type in FA, or a pick could happen if Battle struggles..

F) DE. Nope.

I guess if Murphy struggles we could spend on DE. Though with Hubbard & Hendrickson inked, I think that is unlikely yo be a BIG spend. A pick or medium vet more likely.

G) LG. Maybe.

If Volson struggles I could see a big FA spend on a G next year. Or at least a mid.

A lot will depend on some guys do this year, be it the FAs or their potential replacements or other guys on the roster (Ossai?). Where to spend & how much & on who?

But we have $54 mil and it seems WR2, DT, and CB1 are the only real logical places to spend big.
--------------

8) Getting Real

Of course, that number is way high. We have 13 spots to fill and won't spend to the line.

Our top two picks this year make just over $4 mil. We should pick later next year, so assume we spend a touch less this year. A touch under $4 mil turns that $53.8 to $50 mil with 42 spots filled and 11 open. Assume they also plug at least 2 holes. Be it one we ID'd or not.

Assume we fill the 11 spots left with $1.2 mil vet min guys. 11x1.3 = $13,200,000. That would leave us with $36,800,000 to spend on those 11 spots beyond a min.

Worst case, we have WR2, WR3, RT, DT, CB, SS, LG, and DE needs of some sort approaching starter/rotation level. The draft takes 2. So 6.

If we pay Tee $25 mil next year, that leaves us $13 mil (displacement of $1.2) for overages on other spots + whatever cushion we want.

Things would need to go almost perfectly with Mims, Jenkins, Burton, All, Jackson, Newton, Murphy, Turner, D. Hill, and Battle for us to cut it that close. Or with T. Brown, Bell, Hilton, BJ Hill, and Gesicki coming back for cheap-ish. Possible but unlikely.

Note, that the same holds true with a big spend at another spot. It does not have to be Tee. Coukd be a DT, CB1, G, or DE.
-----------

9) FFS, restructure Burrow.

Restructuring Burrow could net us over $20 mil in cap savings if done after 2024 (I cannot find the bloody link).

If I am not off my rocker on that, then we'd have $70 mil in space with 11 spots open.

Offense: 17
QB: Burrow, Browning
RB: Moss; C. Brown
WR: Chase; Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones
TE: All; D. Sample, McLachlan
OT: O. Brown, Mims
OG: Cappa, Volson
C: Karras, Lee

Defense: 20
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Johnson
DT/NT: Rankins; Jenkins, M. Jackson, Carter
LB: Wilson, Pratt; Harper
CB: CTB, Turner; D. Hill, Newton, Ivey
S: Battle, Stone; Anderson, Anthony

Specials: 3
PK: McPherson
P: McNamara/Robbins
LS: Adomitis

Lets go the most expensive route and fill most of the starting spots with FAs except for Mims. Assume the 1st & 2nd in 2025 are bench guys.

11 spots. $70 mil.

WR2: Higgins ($25 mil tag)
WR3: Gesicki ($7 mil)
OT3: T. Brown ($6 mil)
CB3: Hilton ($6 mil)
SS: Bell ($6 mil)
DT: Hill ($10 mil)

That's $60 milfor 6 spots. Assume we are not totally daft and take 2 of CB/DE/OG in this scenario  

We still have $10 mil left for 5 spots. $6.2 mil at mins. $3.8 mil cushion with no starting help from the draft class and next to no one stepping up to claim a starting spot.

That is with paying Tee $25 mil again AND paying to retain ALL our FAs at starting spots & no guys coming through.

Realistically some will. Extend Tee to lower yearly hit AND have a couple guys come through (Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Volson, Murphy, Jenkins, Jackson, Turner, D. Hill, Battle) and we could spend big at 2 spots in the offseason. WR, CB, DT, DE, OG is where I'd look/draft first.

---------

Sorry for dissertation. Bottom line, with a Burrow restructure and some guys coming good, I think we can spend some in FA next year. Be it Tee or another spot. Likely 2.

I think my clothes went out of style reading that..Lol Just kidding Ike

Well shit. The deadline has passed and no deal.

Had my fingers crossed we would get Tee signed up long term.

Hoping he has an epic season and maybe a tag and trade next year.

(07-15-2024, 05:08 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Well shit. The deadline has passed and no deal.

Had my fingers crossed we would get Tee signed up long term.

Hoping he has an epic season and maybe a tag and trade next year.

Yeah, I really didn't expect a deal to get done because Burrow can make an average receiver look great (he's above average but not worth what he's commanding), so we'd be spending unnecessary money.

I do hope that Higgins knows that this season will be an audition for other teams and he just goes off all year.

It will be good to have Tee back for this season. Ts, from the TC video that I have watched there's no doubt that this is his last season in Cincy.

The young dogs are starting to hunt. I've seen nice catches from Burton, Irwin, and Jones thus far. We have a plethora of weapons when healthy.