30 HR's 75 stolen bases ? Can he do it ?

Let me just start off by saying I would not be shocked if Elly hit 30 more HR's before the end of the season. The guy is amazing!! Wrist strength, bat speed, his speed, so...

He stands at 21 HR's and 59 SB's with 43 games to play.

I'm gonna go with 33 HR's and 79 SB's for final stat.

(08-13-2024, 12:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 30 HR's 75 stolen bases ? Can he do it ?

Let me just start off by saying I would not be shocked if Elly hit 30 more HR's before the end of the season. The guy is amazing!! Wrist strength, bat speed, his speed, so...

He stands at 21 HR's and 59 SB's with 43 games to play.

I'm gonna go with 33 HR's and 79 SB's for final stat.

That would be one bright spot on an otherwise "meh" kind of season.

Would be pretty impressive.

I don't know if he'll get the HRs unless he gets on a real big hotstreak at some point like he did in mid-April. 43 games left, he'll probably play ~40 of those. At his current HR/game pace he'd need 50 games to reach 30. If you look at his HR pace since the start of May he'd need more like 60 more games to reach 30. So he just needs to stay healthy and have a real big HR streak at some point in his final ~40 games to make up the difference.

If we see a lot of right handed starters it would help his odds.

(08-13-2024, 01:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That would be one bright spot on an otherwise "meh" kind of season.

Ya, something to hang our hat on.

(08-13-2024, 01:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Would be pretty impressive.

I don't know if he'll get the HRs unless he gets on a real big hotstreak at some point like he did in mid-April. 43 games left, he'll probably play ~40 of those. At his current HR/game pace he'd need 50 games to reach 30. If you look at his HR pace since the start of May he'd need more like 60 more games to reach 30. So he just needs to stay healthy and have a real big HR streak at some point in his final ~40 games to make up the difference.

If we see a lot of right handed starters it would help his odds.

Right

I'm hoping like you say he gets on a hot streak vs. bunch of rh's in 3 or 4 game stretch and rips of 5 dingers.

Steer was at the plate and is currently hot. Friedl only has 6 SB this year.

He didn't even get caught stealing. Getting picked off for yet another sloppy base running out by this Reds team.

Nice, lets sweep the WLBs.

(08-13-2024, 01:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That would be one bright spot on an otherwise "meh" kind of season.

The emergence of Hunter Greene as a true ace has been the other. These are the two guys you build around.

(08-13-2024, 10:09 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The emergence of Hunter Greene as a true ace has been the other. These are the two guys you build around.

He's show the potential to be one, but I think the term ace gets slapped on players far too casually. Up there with "elite" in football. You need to prove it multiple years to be an ace and being the #1 pitcher in a rotation doesn't mean you're an ace either.

If Greene finishes the season strong and then follows it up with another good one, I will be cheering "Ace!" along with you. Just seems a bit preemptive when just at the end of June only 1.5 months ago folks on here were talking about how Lodolo is our clear #1 and future ace because he had a 2.96 ERA (now 3.99) and Greene had a 3.70 ERA (now 2.83).

About this time in 2019 Luis Castillo (also his 3rd season) had a 2.63 ERA and people were saying "Ace!" and then from his Aug 11th start onwards he had a 5.37 ERA over his last 9 starts to finish at 3.40 ERA and never really found the ability to be an ace in his career despite being a very good pitcher who is still going strong.

I also remember Blake Snell winning the Cy Young his 3rd year (same year Greene currently is in) and then having a 3.85 ERA over the next 4 years. Being an ace is about consistent dominance.

(08-14-2024, 10:47 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He's show the potential to be one, but I think the term ace gets slapped on players far too casually. Up there with "elite" in football. You need to prove it multiple years to be an ace and being the #1 pitcher in a rotation doesn't mean you're an ace either.

If Greene finishes the season strong and then follows it up with another good one, I will be cheering "Ace!" along with you. Just seems a bit preemptive when just at the end of June only 1.5 months ago folks on here were talking about how Lodolo is our clear #1 and future ace because he had a 2.96 ERA (now 3.99) and Greene had a 3.70 ERA (now 2.83).

About this time in 2019 Luis Castillo (also his 3rd season) had a 2.63 ERA and people were saying "Ace!" and then from his Aug 11th start onwards he had a 5.37 ERA over his last 9 starts to finish at 3.40 ERA and never really found the ability to be an ace in his career despite being a very good pitcher who is still going strong.

I also remember Blake Snell winning the Cy Young his 3rd year (same year Greene currently is in) and then having a 3.85 ERA over the next 4 years. Being an ace is about consistent dominance.

Time will tell, but he sure looks like exactly what you hope for out of a #2OA pick at this point. As for the bold, I specifically remember pushing back on that right when it was said.

(08-14-2024, 12:11 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Time will tell, but he sure looks like exactly what you hope for out of a #2OA pick at this point. As for the bold, I specifically remember pushing back on that right when it was said.

I agree with LL, Nicoma. "True Ace" is a bit early on Greene. He's easily been or best pitcher over last month and change. But back earlier in the season - June. Lodolo was easily our best pitcher. And sure looked like he was shoving Greene aside at the #1 spot.

I sure hope they both emerge as true top of the staff starters. And right now Greene sure seems to be headed towards being our "Ace". But I wouldn't put him there just yet. 

Even if you think “Ace” is premature he’s put himself in the Cy Young conversation, so my original point still stands (which was that he’s been the other bright spot on the season along with Elly).

(08-14-2024, 01:06 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Even if you think “Ace” is premature he’s put himself in the Cy Young conversation, so my original point still stands (which was that he’s been the other bright spot on the season along with Elly).

Oh I agree 

(08-13-2024, 12:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 30 HR's 75 stolen bases ? Can he do it ?

Let me just start off by saying I would not be shocked if Elly hit 30 more HR's before the end of the season. The guy is amazing!! Wrist strength, bat speed, his speed, so...

He stands at 21 HR's and 59 SB's with 43 games to play.

I'm gonna go with 33 HR's and 79 SB's for final stat.

FWIW, here's his projection based on what he accomplished to this point:
HRs - 28.12
SBs - 78.99

With September cooling temps, I don't think he'll reach the 30 HR mark.

(08-14-2024, 01:06 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Even if you think “Ace” is premature he’s put himself in the Cy Young conversation, so my original point still stands (which was that he’s been the other bright spot on the season along with Elly).

Yep, I consider True Ace to be someone who can be sub-3.00 ERA, a high number of Quality Starts, and high WAR.

Greene is 2nd among pitchers with a 5.3 WAR.
5th among all pitchers with a 2.83 ERA.
Tied for 6th among all pitchers with 13 Quality Starts. Only 2 pitchers (Wheeler, Webb) have >15 QS

GOTTA learn how to hit lefties. That's was one of the worst looking strikeouts I have seen since Mike Costanzo (who might be my entry for the Obscure Reds version of that Bengals thread, lol).

Right now he's at 23 HR and 62 stolen bases with 20 games to go. Still doable no doubt but he's really going to have to get a couple more "hot games" in there to have a chance.