Reds payroll for 2025 is sitting at $95 mill with the projected ARB and Pre-ARB estimates.
Reduce that by $12 mill if Nick Martinez chooses to use his player option to leave the org.
Reduce that by $8 mill if Emilio Pagan chooses to do the same.
If both leave, that brings the 2025 payroll down to $75 mill.

The Reds, in years they have wanted to really compete, have had a payroll typically ~$115-125 mill.
Leaving them with ~$30-50 mill to work with.

They arguably need:
1 good SP
2 good RPs
2 good bats who could play Corner IF, Corner OF, or DH

Reds have some up and coming pitching prospects, but the hitting prospects are lower on the prospect list, so I don't know if they really have anyone ready to make the jump other than Rece Hinds.

Who would you be targeting that could fit into the budget, and how much do you think they could be acquired for?

List of 2025 MLB FAs for those wanting to look that up - https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2025

Convince Martinez to stay, or try to trade candelario for Sonny Grey. Bring in Teoscar Hernandez and Ryan Pressly.

(10-18-2024, 05:04 PM)Storer50 Wrote: Convince Martinez to stay, or try to trade candelario for Sonny Grey. Bring in Teoscar Hernandez and Ryan Pressly.

Why in the hell would the Cards do this trade?
Candelario is not good.

You'd have to give Candelario on top of a one of the higher pitching prospects.

(10-18-2024, 07:05 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Why in the hell would the Cards do this trade?
Candelario is not good.

You'd have to give Candelario on top of a one of the higher pitching prospects.

If it takes Chase Petty to get it done, then get it done. the idea of the cards trading Sonny have been floating since mid season. Cardinals are looking at a rebuild, already told Goldy he isn't coming back.

First off, just want to point out that $115m-$125m payroll was a couple years ago, prior to all that inflation. Those years when they were actually spending they were around 16th and 17th which in 2024 was $148m and $147m. If you look at their payroll in 2021, that $147-148m mark is actually dead on with inflation as their $126.6m payroll in 2021 is worth $147.3m in 2024.
- - - - - - -

Using your FA list's market values....

SP, Max Fried: 6yr/$136.3m ($22.7m/yr)
SP, Yusei Kikuchi: 1yr/$14.9m
RP/SP, Spencer Turnbull: 2yr/$8.9m ($4.4m/yr)
DH, Joc Pederson: 2yr/$29.4m ($14.7m/yr)

Max Fried would give us a nice #1/#2 type pitcher who has thrown 165+ innings 3 times in the last 4 years. Now paired at the top with Greene for 5 years.
Kikuchi would give us a stable #4 type innings eater who is a boon to a bullpen. Last two years 343 innings at 3.96 ERA/105 ERA+.
Turnbull fills the RP/SP flex role that Martniez did for us. Maybe worse, but also much cheaper. Lets more money go to different pitchers.
Pederson finally gives us a competent DH bat so we're not batting the weakest hitting guys in our lineup DH and 7th in the lineup.

That's $56.7m/yr, but if you factor in salaries on multi-year deals normally rising each year, it'd probably put them under $50m at least on Year 1. I would also probably try to tie a prospect to Candelario to see if I could get anyone to take his contract off my hands.

(10-18-2024, 10:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: They arguably need:
1 good SP
2 good RPs
2 good bats who could play Corner IF, Corner OF, or DH

Yep

I don't have names yet but:

They have to go out and get a true #1/2 type top of the mark starting pitcher, HAVE TOO

And like several people have said here and in the past an innings eater. I also wouldn't mind a closer, I just don't trust Diaz. And more bullpen help wouldn't hurt. So you're talking 3-4 QUALITY pitchers.

They, as you say need a couple good RBI/power guys. In GABP we should be up at the top in HR's and we're not.

If they're serious about making a run the time is now.

I always look now at Money Ball Movie which is based on that seasons Oakland Athletics. The Owner not paying Top Stars from the play-off team team.  

The GM right off the bat, that that first off season meeting is awful.  The scouts talking what free agents they would like and players with ugly wives off their list.  Those idiots are he wrong meeting, and most need fired.   As GM, I would begin at the beginning. How are our Minor Leagues ?  How are the Minor League Players we drafted or added ?  What level are they at and who is rising in the Minors ?  Who are the coaches bringing the Minors players along, and who ae the Minors coaches not really developing anybody that nee fired ?  

As GM, I think the first move is to take a good hard look at your Farm System in you are GM of a lower profit team.  I'm not going in thinking World Series this year, Reds are not money deep NY Yankees or LA Dodgers.  I'm on page with the Owner saying Not Losing Money comes FIRST.  So If I'm looking Making Money, I'm looking now ii October at THE FARM SYSTEM.  Which players down on the Farm are too Old.  At A, Double, Triple A, there has to be a cut off age. I would want Minor  League Players around 18 to 21 years old.  A 25 year old player still clunking around in the Minors is a waste of the Farm Systems time.  

Fans want BIG MONEY FREE AGENTS.  As GM, I don't.  This is the Reds, not The Yankees.  After knowing the Farm System upside and down, and making moves to improve there, I can look to Reds Team.  The good news is no Votto or Moose type Contracts and as GM, I don't want any.   Reds just brought in a new manager who has won the World Series with Boston Red Sox, so as GM, I need some talks with this guy.  As GM, I want to make sure the Manager has good coaches in Pitching, Hitting, Fielding, Base Running. If I as Detroit bringing in Sparky, I would let him have big say in his coaches, and World Series  Francona I would do the same.  

As GM, do players have good conditioning and rehab staff.  Last I look at Scouts and in this Money Ball Movie, I would have fired every one after that first meeting of them talking ugly players wives, as GM, I don't have time for that, this is business

Accepting the Reds do NOT have Yankees money, I am looking if there are any players that other teams are going to pay a lot of their 2025 contract, and Reds don't have to pay much.  I'm going Bargain Hunting for players Reds got on the Cheap for a year like Scooter Gennett or Tony Fernandez.

A GM you have to know what Reds have as far as injured pitchers.  Who might be back in 2025.  All the Contracts Reds already have.  Who is getting too old ?  Who is Over Paid ? .....Once knowing what Farm System and Returning Reds have, I can start looking at who to have in  Spring Training and THE FUTURE of THE REDS.  

Again, I'm not looking at next Halloween World Series as GM of Reds, My Main Goal is Make A Profit for the Owner, and give The Fans a good team to pay to see in April, May, June and July. I'm not thinking the 2 teams left at Halloween, the1994 Players Strike changed that.

I would NOT be looking at how fast I could spend money and go in debt on expensive Free Agents.  Reds are still reeling from the Votto and Moose awful contracts. I'd like to get Reds way back up there in Profits after years of losing money.  Once we have some real money, Reds could have more room to resign or go get players.  

As GM, you can't pay a ton of money to Free Agents and not think about how are you going to pay De La Cruz or Hunter Greene down the road.  

With so much on my plate as GM, the first scout that talks ugly wives and nonsense as in Oakland A's thing gets FIRED that second.

As GM, I want some MONEY PROMOTION ways to fill seats. In 2025 there are 2.  50 years since the 1975 Reds, and 35 years since the 1990 Reds.  With some of them deceased. a  weekend where you invite members of both teams in for a celebration.  After All-Star Game to end of season Weekend.  Mention Jose Rijo was 1990 World Series MVP and Pete Rose was 1975 World Series MVP and Joe Morgan was League MVP....Of course you have Band Games and Fireworks Nights...

Way, Way, Way before I'm looking at the Free Agent Board, As GM I have to have Reds Minors and Majors down and have some meetings with Terry Francona. AS GM, I didn't bring in a World Series manager just for show, I want him to be my Sparky Andersson and have an input.

As Reds GM, I'm probably NOT bringing in a higher level priced Free Agent.  I'm going to steal what helps the Tampa Rays beat Big Money Yankees some years, Build From The  Minors UP.   NO JOEY VOTTO BIG MONEY and NO TRADE CONTRACTS, as GM, I don't want a single contract like that. This is The lower profit Reds, not the Deep Pocket Yankees. .....As Reds GM, I'll be glad to try players other teams still have to pay, because as GM I have NOTHING to lose on FREE ball players. I just might get a Scooter Gennett type on THE CHEAP for 2025.

No, Fans would not like me as GM.  I would NOT be rushing into Free Agency spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave.

I know I went long and didn't mention a name of a free agent.  As pretend GM, my first focus is on The  Farm System and Reds Players and Coaches, Who Stays and Who Goes, and I need long sit downs with Terry Francona, because as GM, I want input from him.  He won with Boston after 100 years of losing, so like Sparky, this guy knows  his Baseball. I'm not making a move until I have sit downs with Francona and his input. 

(10-23-2024, 12:27 PM)kevin Wrote: As GM, I think the first move is to take a good hard look at your Farm System in you are GM of a lower profit team.  I'm not going in thinking World Series this year, Reds are not money deep NY Yankees or LA Dodgers.  I'm on page with the Owner saying Not Losing Money comes FIRST.  So If I'm looking Making Money, I'm looking now ii October at THE FARM SYSTEM.  Which players down on the Farm are too Old.  At A, Double, Triple A, there has to be a cut off age. I would want Minor  League Players around 18 to 21 years old.  A 25 year old player still clunking around in the Minors is a waste of the Farm Systems time.  

Fans want BIG MONEY FREE AGENTS.  As GM, I don't.  This is the Reds, not The Yankees.  After knowing the Farm System upside and down, and making moves to improve there, I can look to Reds Team.  The good news is no Votto or Moose type Contracts and as GM, I don't want any.   Reds just brought in a new manager who has won the World Series with Boston Red Sox, so as GM, I need some talks with this guy.  As GM, I want to make sure the Manager has good coaches in Pitching, Hitting, Fielding, Base Running. If I as Detroit bringing in Sparky, I would let him have big say in his coaches, and World Series  Francona I would do the same.  

As Reds GM, I'm probably NOT bringing in a higher level priced Free Agent.  I'm going to steal what helps the Tampa Rays beat Big Money Yankees some years, Build From The  Minors UP.   NO JOEY VOTTO BIG MONEY and NO TRADE CONTRACTS, as GM, I don't want a single contract like that. This is The lower profit Reds, not the Deep Pocket Yankees. .....As Reds GM, I'll be glad to try players other teams still have to pay, because as GM I have NOTHING to lose on FREE ball players. I just might get a Scooter Gennett type on THE CHEAP for 2025.

(Some) Fans want to feel confident in the team succeeding when deciding to buy tickets.
Some known FAs are going to help draw the attendance because of previous proven success.
We've seen some external FAs not pan out in Cincy. First one off the top of my head - Mike Moustakas.
But if you look at the Reds' farm system, they don't really have any good hitting prospects, at least not ready to hit the Majors in 2025.

If the Reds go the route you propose and they really do have a great analytical mind like Billy Beane did back in the early 2000's (I don't think they do), it will take until partway through the season for the fans to see the team actually doing well before they start filling the stadium and getting that confidence.

You're right though, Reds aren't going to fork over Gerritt Cole or Max Scherzer type money for FAs.
BEST case we may see is one player at $20-25 mill APY for 2-3 seasons.
But the rest are going to be in the $7-15 mill range, like Candelario.


But you still didn't ultimately answer the question posed for the thread, which is WHO you want added and for about how much to spend on said individual(s).
Who would be your targets given what you said of how you would spend $$ in a general sense (which is TB-like)?

I know I went long. Let me try this shorter.

Reds should NOT rush out and grab expensive Free Agents. They brought in Francona. Odds of building a 2025 World Series team are slim to none. What they can do is work with Francona and let him get his coaches and team together. Now if there is a player Francona wants and fits Reds budget sure. Sparky Anderson came in and quickly got rid of iron glove Alex Johnson who could hit, and club house clown Chico Ruiz, Sparky saying they didn't fit the team he was going to build. Francona knows his baseball, so let him build his coaches and players as Howsom worked with Sparky. To rushing out and grabbing Free Agents, I say NO, unless it is somebody Francona wants and fits Reds Budget. Let Francona have a say in trade moves and free agents and his coaches. It's fun to play GM or Owner, but I think Francona brings Winning Baseball experience that Front Office should make the most of.

(10-23-2024, 04:04 PM)kevin Wrote: I know I went long.  Let me try this shorter.

Reds should NOT rush out and grab expensive Free Agents.  They brought in Francona.  Odds of building a 2025 World Series team are slim to none. What they can do is work with Francona and let him get his coaches and team together.  Now if there is a player Francona wants and fits Reds budget sure.  Sparky Anderson came in and quickly got rid of iron glove Alex Johnson who could hit, and club house clown Chico Ruiz, Sparky saying they didn't fit the team he was going to build.  Francona knows his baseball, so let him build his coaches and players as Howsom worked with Sparky.  To rushing out and grabbing Free Agents, I say NO, unless it  is somebody Francona wants and fits Reds Budget.  Let Francona have a say in trade moves and free agents and his coaches.   It's fun to play GM or Owner, but I think Francona brings Winning Baseball experience that Front Office should make the most of.

Dude..Who do YOU think is a good fit and will fit in the Reds' budget?
That's the question.


Terry Francona, Nick Krall, and the gang are going to make decisions regardless of what we want or speculate.
It's the same as the NFL Free Agency conversations in Feb/March.
But we still do it cuz we think we have some intelligence on the subject and/or it's fun.

I’ll add my two cents once the WS is played and I get a better idea of what FAs are out there and what teams are looking to possibly trade. I would like a ToR arm, a contact+ RH bat, and either a new closer or a bonafide set up man / go-to “stopper” for the bullpen.

My answer lacks depth, but I want the free agents Francona wants. He's probably the most trust worthy baseball brain in the Reds organization right now.

My fantasy GMing:

- Give Pete Alonso a huge 5 year deal. He's 30 so I'd hope that he has at least 3 solid years left.
- Alonso locks down 1B/DH and then maybe younger corner IF talent could be traded to secure better pitching?

(10-24-2024, 11:44 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: My answer lacks depth, but I want the free agents Francona wants. He's probably the most trust worthy baseball brain in the Reds organization right now.

My fantasy GMing:

- Give Pete Alonso a huge 5 year deal. He's 30 so I'd hope that he has at least 3 solid years left.
- Alonso locks down 1B/DH and then maybe younger corner IF talent could be traded to secure better pitching?

What kind of mega deal for Alonso?
Something in the ballpark of $150 mill ($30 mill APY for 5 years)?

Right now, no DH or 1B makes quite $30 mill APY aside from Ohtani, who is also getting paid as an elite pitcher.
Closest is Vlad Guerrero Jr. at $28.8 mill APY.
Votto's big contract back in the day was $22.5 mill APY and was (near?) the highest for 1B at the time, IIRC.

Would people be comfortable with Alonso taking up ~25-30% of the team's payroll?

(10-24-2024, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: What kind of mega deal for Alonso?
Something in the ballpark of $150 mill ($30 mill APY for 5 years)?

I've lost touch with have any general awareness of player salaries. Alonso is still worthy of being a top paid 1B, so "mega deal" works for me. 

(10-24-2024, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: What kind of mega deal for Alonso?
Something in the ballpark of $150 mill ($30 mill APY for 5 years)?

Right now, no DH or 1B makes quite $30 mill APY aside from Ohtani, who is also getting paid as an elite pitcher.
Closest is Vlad Guerrero Jr. at $28.8 mill APY.
Votto's big contract back in the day was $22.5 mill APY and was (near?) the highest for 1B at the time, IIRC.

Would people be comfortable with Alonso taking up ~25-30% of the team's payroll?

Spotrac has his market value at 6yr/$174m ($29m/yr).

He would probably mash in GABP, but I just don't really trust him to be able to play well into his mid-30s. I think he'd be worth that annual amount over half the length, but he's certainly on the heftier and slow side and I don't know how he'll handle that with aging. He's a career .249 hitter and is hitting .229 over the last two years. 

I need my highly paid superstars to hit for average if they are going to get paid into their mid-30s because once it starts declining (and it always does) it'll still be good versus a guy with a low average to begin with once he declines a bit is quickly below Mendoza.

Likely a moot point anyway because I can't see the Mets not backing up the Brinks truck for him after he hit 4 HRs in the postseason. They'll just eat the money of him possibly being shit for the second half or more of the contract.

(10-24-2024, 08:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Spotrac has his market value at 6yr/$174m ($29m/yr).

He would probably mash in GABP, but I just don't really trust him to be able to play well into his mid-30s. I think he'd be worth that annual amount over half the length, but he's certainly on the heftier and slow side and I don't know how he'll handle that with aging. He's a career .249 hitter and is hitting .229 over the last two years. 

I need my highly paid superstars to hit for average if they are going to get paid into their mid-30s because once it starts declining (and it always does) it'll still be good versus a guy with a low average to begin with once he declines a bit is quickly below Mendoza.

Likely a moot point anyway because I can't see the Mets not backing up the Brinks truck for him after he hit 4 HRs in the postseason. They'll just eat the money of him possibly being shit for the second half or more of the contract.

I'm also the kind that prefers better average over someone who hits more dingers if having the choice.
Reds have dudes who can hit dingers, they just miss so frequently that they aren't able to score runs.


What about a dude like Teoscar Hernandez?
While actually 32 years old, he is still batting .270+ with the Dodgers this year and is a career. 263 hitter.
Plus, Reds could use an OF.
His market value is listed somewhat cheaper at just slightly under $24 mill APY.
With his age, maybe a 3-year deal at $24-25 mill APY.
That way, it could fall off when some of these other young dudes on the team start getting into their big contracts.

I like Brent Rooker of the A's but he would be a trade option who would cost prospects.

Speaking on the Alonso suggestion, I’d pass. I feel like we already have 1B/DH covered with Candellario, who is my bounce-back candidate for next season. Plus we have Steer, who actually plays pretty good at 1B. Get an OF bat and get off this idea of Steer in LF frequently. Aaaaaaand we have CES hopefully coming back ready to earn a spot as well. We have options there.

(10-25-2024, 01:22 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Speaking on the Alonso suggestion, I’d pass. I feel like we already have 1B/DH covered with Candellario, who is my bounce-back candidate for next season.  Plus we have Steer, who actually plays pretty good at 1B. Get an OF bat and get off this idea of Steer in LF frequently. Aaaaaaand we have CES hopefully coming back ready to earn a spot as well. We have options there.

I dunno, I really don't care for Candelario.

Alonso is better than Candelario as a hitter in just about every way.

Candelario Career (2024):
BA: .240 (.225)
OBP: .318 (.279)
OPS: .735 (.707)
OPS+: 100 (90)

Alonso Career (2024):
BA: .249 (.240)

OBP: .339 (.329)
OPS: .854 (.788)
OPS+: 134 (123)

We cannot rely on Candelario to bounce back because there really isn't much to bounce back to.

(10-25-2024, 01:58 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I dunno, I really don't care for Candelario.

Alonso is better than Candelario as a hitter in just about every way.

Candelario Career (2024):
BA: .240 (.225)
OBP: .318 (.279)
OPS: .735 (.707)
OPS+: 100 (90)

Alonso Career (2024):
BA: .249 (.240)

OBP: .339 (.329)
OPS: .854 (.788)
OPS+: 134 (123)

We cannot rely on Candelario to bounce back because there really isn't much to bounce back to.

I don’t care much for him either to be honest, but with his salary I feel like he’s GONNA play. No way do we eat his contractespecially if we’re active in free agency, and I highly doubt we find any takers for him unless it’s in a package deal for a big upgrade elsewhere. sort of like adding Suarez to the Castillo deal years ago. If he can get back to his pre-Reds ways, he brings that switch hitting, contact element somewhere to the batting order. That’s what I’m hoping at least, if he stays.