(07-05-2025, 11:40 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think the guys they signed could be solid, and if our injured players on defense come back and play well we will be in good shape. A lot is up in the air, and when we have Burrow, Chase, and Tee, we won’t be out of any game at any time.

Not trying to be overly negative but we have to have quite a few things go right and you are correct, time will tell.

1000%

(07-05-2025, 11:45 AM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: But the data can tell you how much to realistically expect from a player. I'm not even sure what players we have that we could say fall into this category? Mims looks like he can be solid albeit still with injury concerns. Jenkins and Jackson look to be decent rotational players but this might be the most intriguing Jackson played better at the end of the season and Jenkins played worse. Other guys have more years/data so they are probably what they are at this point.

You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

(Yesterday, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds....   and went in to be exceptional players....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got many good rotations due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

You do understand that some players play on first and second down but leave the field on third downs? Hence, the term rotational player. It's neither here nor there, but it is actually a very real thing. 

(Yesterday, 12:47 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: You do understand that some players play on first and second down but leave the field on third downs? Hence, the term rotational player. It's neither here nor there, but it is actually a very real thing. 

I know that the jury is still out on first year players ..mostly..and to make concrete determinations after their rookie season is not productive

(Yesterday, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional  nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or  busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

I meant decent rotational players as a compliment. The data is always being adjusted and sure there is times it's wrong and then it's adjusted. Cherry picking the few out of many and saying the data gets it wrong while ignoring the vast majority it gets right is not a good strategy. Using metrics doesnt prove success or failure you just try and limit your risk.

(Yesterday, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional  nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or  busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

So the understanding of probability escapes you...

(Yesterday, 08:13 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So the understanding of probability escapes you...

Pretty much. 

There are 4 HoFers from the 6th round of the draft.
There are 137 HoFers from the 1st round of the draft.

There are more Hall of Famers from the 1st round than 2nd-27th rounds + UDFAs... combined.

The 2007 1st round draft picks alone have already produced as many HoFers (4) as the 6th round has in NFL history combined. Sure Tom Brady will eventually add another 6th rounder, but Adrian Peterson (and potentially Marshawn Lynch) will add another 2007 1st rounder.

- - - - - 

Goes beyond HoF, too... the previous 5 drafts (2020-2024) there were 1,292 draft picks and of those 76 of them have been Pro Bowlers, with 41 of them being 1st rounders (so 41 out of 159 or 25.8% of them) and 18 of them being 2nd rounders (so 18 out of 160 or 11.3% of them) leaving just 17 for 3rd-7th round combined (so 17 out of 973 or 1.7% of them).

And yet the 2025 HOF class is: Sterling Sharpe (1st round), Eric Allen (2nd), Jared Allen (4th), and Antonio Gates (UDFA).
And while we can safely say that Burrow is better than Tee and Chase is better than Carman Jackson, are we sure that Mims is better than Jenkins, Miles Murphy is better than DJ Turner, or Dax Hill is better than CTB?
The Bengals never believe that their players are what they are or they would have paid Hendrickson, signed a FA CB, and not played Cordell Volson for 3 years. With the coaching changes IMO they are moving too deliberately, but we'll see.

(07-05-2025, 11:40 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think the guys they signed could be solid, and if our injured players on defense come back and play well we will be in good shape. A lot is up in the air, and when we have Burrow, Chase, and Tee, we won’t be out of any game at any time.

Not trying to be overly negative but we have to have quite a few things go right and you are correct, time will tell.

agree with the core offense, i would add Brown into that mix also, in the end the biggest factor in NFL is health.  Studies show that the healthier teams have a much higher percentage to making the playoffs. 

(Yesterday, 08:08 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I meant decent rotational players as a compliment. The data is always being adjusted and sure there is times it's wrong and then it's adjusted. Cherry picking the few out of many and saying the data gets it wrong while ignoring the vast majority it gets right is not a good strategy. Using metrics doesnt prove success or failure you just try and limit your risk.

I think by mid october of this year..we all will have a much better feel for the youngef players and their capabilities..rotational or otherwise