(12-11-2015, 03:00 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'm not saying MLJ isn't a good player or anything, but players are paid based on production, not potential. Especially when said player will be going into year 5. MLJ is going to get less money because he's produced and proven less than Crabtree.

As someone pointed out, Crabs is to them what Eifert has been to us. I think that's a good comparison. Crabtree has been vital to their offense. You could make an argument that he's their #1 target. MLJ is 3rd in the pecking order here.

Disagree on the production vs. Potential, but ok. 

I'm trying to ask two very pointed Questions: what do you think someone is willing to pay MLJ when free agency comes around next spring? I saw some figures early in the thread, but do you feel this Crabtree deal has ANY effect on that market?

MLJ is a third option here because of the other players on this offense; not every team has our riches in terms of weapons.  Ergo, I believe someone will try to offer more than we are willing to offer.  Does he take it?

(12-11-2015, 03:00 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'm not saying MLJ isn't a good player or anything, but players are paid based on production, not potential. Especially when said player will be going into year 5. MLJ is going to get less money because he's produced and proven less than Crabtree.

As someone pointed out, Crabs is to them what Eifert has been to us. I think that's a good comparison. Crabtree has been vital to their offense. You could make an argument that he's their #1 target. MLJ is 3rd in the pecking order here.

Most contracts are based on what they believe Future production would be.

If a player has 7,000 receiving yards and 50 Tds in his career but is now 34 and losing a step your not gonna pay him based on his past production but what they believe he can still produce.

Which is why some players cant find jobs because they think they are worth to much

(12-11-2015, 10:35 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Glad I scrolled through before posting.  This was going to be my point as well.  Crabtree isn't a superior talent to MLJ in any way.  I bet his agent was salivating when he saw this.  I'm not sure that MLJ will be able to be retained if he is going to get this kind of money on the open market.  

In which case, Sanu could likely be retained and the Bengals would be looking WR right after CB in the next draft.  

I posted facts to back my belief on why Crabtree is better and more productive. So what make MLJ equal or better than Crabtree?

(12-11-2015, 12:04 PM)TGISunday Wrote: Disagree on the production vs. Potential, but ok. 

I'm trying to ask two very pointed Questions: what do you think someone is willing to pay MLJ when free agency comes around next spring? I saw some figures early in the thread, but do you feel this Crabtree deal has ANY effect on that market?

MLJ is a third option here because of the other players on this offense; not every team has our riches in terms of weapons.  Ergo, I believe someone will try to offer more than we are willing to offer.  Does he take it?

All new deals have some influence on the market, but what market are we discussing? Are we discussing the market for #2 or #1 WRs? As I said earlier, Crab is more of a 1B option for the Raiders. He's led their team in targets, catches and TD's. I think his pay (8.7 per) perfectly reflects that. #1 options usually get 10+ while #2 options fall around 5-6.

If MLJ is viewed as a #2 WR, Crab's contract won't be relevant because Crab wasn't paid as a #2. If MLJ is viewed as a #1 WR (which I bet won't happen), then Crab's contract still isn't relevant. 

Btw, you can disagree on production vs potential, but how many WR's have been paid like a #1 without ever producing like a #1?

(12-11-2015, 01:49 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Most contracts are based on what they believe Future production would be.

If a player has 7,000 receiving yards and 50 Tds in his career  but is now 34 and losing a step your not gonna pay him based on his past production but what they believe he can still produce.

Which is why some players cant find jobs because they think they are worth to much

Your example doesn't fit because MLJ isn't a fading 34 year old. His past production is a good indicator of what he's capable of. A similar player with similar production would be Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was given a 3 year, 15 million deal from the Broncos. That deal fit his past production, not his potential.

I'd take Jones over Sanu, unless people are going to be crazy in FA and pay Jones like he's a WR who averages more than 500yds/season and has proven he can take a full starting load. In that case I would take neither. There's too much WR talent in every draft to be overpaying #2 WRs or keeping #3 WRs that can't get separation just because they can block or throw a spiral.

The Seahawks picked up Tyler Lockett in the 3rd round, the Vikings took Stephon Diggs in the 5th, and the Cardinals got JJ Nelson in the 5th.

Last year the Colts got Donte Moncrief in the 3rd, Cardinals got Josh Brown in the 3rd, Steelers got Martavis Bryant in the 4th, and Allen Hurns went undrafted.

In 2013 the Cowboys got Terrance Williams in the 3rd, Chargers got Keenan Allen in the 3rd, Steelers got Markus Wheaton in the 3rd, Saints got Kenny Stills in the 5th, Marlon Brown put up 524/7 as an undrafted rookie for the Ravens.

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If you objectively look at Jones and Sanu's stats rather than with Bengal Fandom Glasses, they're both very replaceable WRs. Look at another very similar contract year scenario the Bengals had to deal with not that long ago.

Jerome Simpson 2011 (16 games, 14 starts): 50/725(14.5)/4
Marvin Jones 2015 pace (16 games, 12 starts): 63/793(12.7)/5

Andre Caldwell 2011 (13 games/2 starts): 37/317(8.7)/3
Mohamed Sanu 2015 pace (16 games/4 starts): 33/436(13.1)/0

The Ws and Bengals uniform cloud the mind, but they are very replaceable.

(12-11-2015, 04:43 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I'd take Jones over Sanu, unless people are going to be crazy in FA and pay Jones like he's a WR who averages more than 500yds/season and has proven he can take a full starting load. In that case I would take neither. There's too much WR talent in every draft to be overpaying #2 WRs or keeping #3 WRs that can't get separation just because they can block or throw a spiral.

The Seahawks picked up Tyler Lockett in the 3rd round, the Vikings took Stephon Diggs in the 5th, and the Cardinals got JJ Nelson in the 5th.

Last year the Colts got Donte Moncrief in the 3rd, Cardinals got Josh Brown in the 3rd, Steelers got Martavis Bryant in the 4th, and Allen Hurns went undrafted.

In 2013 the Cowboys got Terrance Williams in the 3rd, Chargers got Keenan Allen in the 3rd, Steelers got Markus Wheaton in the 3rd, Saints got Kenny Stills in the 5th, Marlon Brown put up 524/7 as an undrafted rookie for the Ravens.

- - - - -
If you objectively look at Jones and Sanu's stats rather than with Bengal Fandom Glasses, they're both very replaceable WRs. Look at another very similar contract year scenario the Bengals had to deal with not that long ago.

Jerome Simpson 2011 (16 games, 14 starts): 50/725(14.5)/4
Marvin Jones 2015 pace (16 games, 12 starts): 63/793(12.7)/5

Andre Caldwell 2011 (13 games/2 starts): 37/317(8.7)/3
Mohamed Sanu 2015 pace (16 games/4 starts): 33/436(13.1)/0

The Ws and Bengals uniform cloud the mind, but they are very replaceable.

While their Stats are not great for sure neither should receive a huge deal or a very big one for that matter they might get more than the bengals are willing to pay.

Stats dont tell the whole story. Each having 3 years work in with Dalton is big too. But Jones is the logical choice to keep as Eifert runs the slot now.

Just to chime in on the conversation higher up in the thread.. Marvin Jones couldn't hold Crabtree's jock. Crabtree has actually shown he can play a full season without breaking immediately after. He also improved each of his first four seasons before an injury and then a dumpster fire team in '14. Crabtree has more yardage four times than Jones has ever gotten in a season. Crabtree has started in 88/91 games he's played in. Marvin Jones has only started 17/39 games.

Michael Crabtree 2012 (16 games): 85 catches/1,105 yards/9 TD
Marvin Jones CAREER (39 games): 116 catches/ 1,508 yards/15 TD

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Xeno, I agree that if it's a decent number.. say like ~$4m/yr? Would put him right around Danny Amendola, right below Doug Baldwin, and right above old Malcom Floyd territory.

Keep him if you can around that price, but if it's more, then there's no reason at all to overpay. Even if he does have a rapport with Dalton.

(12-11-2015, 05:41 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just to chime in on the conversation higher up in the thread.. Marvin Jones couldn't hold Crabtree's jock. Crabtree has actually shown he can play a full season without breaking immediately after. He also improved each of his first four seasons before an injury and then a dumpster fire team in '14. Crabtree has more yardage four times than Jones has ever gotten in a season. Crabtree has started in 88/91 games he's played in. Marvin Jones has only started 17/39 games.

Michael Crabtree 2012 (16 games): 85 catches/1,105 yards/9 TD
Marvin Jones CAREER (39 games): 116 catches/ 1,508 yards/15 TD

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Xeno, I agree that if it's a decent number.. say like ~$4m/yr? Would put him right around Danny Amendola, right below Doug Baldwin, and right above old Malcom Floyd territory.

Keep him if you can around that price, but if it's more, then there's no reason at all to overpay. Even if he does have a rapport with Dalton.

Yeah at this point i'd trust dalton to be able to break in some new WRs

Funny how in the end, both left.

Hope the front office can draft/pick up a decent WR.

(03-12-2016, 02:49 PM)milksheikh Wrote: Funny how in the end, both left.

Hope the front office can draft/pick up a decent WR.

sanu didn't mind wish him the best. jones was slright#2receiver. should be able to draft a very good receiver or get pick up some one. we be alright