(05-06-2016, 03:40 PM)Au165 Wrote: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

Draft gurus have no clue, it just makes fort good TV. If there was any semblance of a "science" teams would have a much better success rate than sub .500 in drafting players who at least contribute. The worst thing is though that people are convinced a guy should be picked here or there. History has shown that you are much more likely to be wrong than right. You want to put a ceiling on Boyd? What kind of ceiling did you put on Richard Sherman? Did you know Edelman was a star? If you want to rank guys, or predict future outcomes that is fine, but please don't act like your guess, and I do mean guess, is the gospel.

Sorry didn't mean to be an attack on you specifically, but draft time just always gets me with all these "experts" in something that has been proven to be nothing more than guessing.

You'll never see me praise Kiper and McShay, they get all their info from secondary sources, our boy Duke said this himself.

Science is not, and never will be perfect, it's putting all your observations, information and data into a formulated, yes, estimation. I don't expect to be always right, but I do expect to be confident about any projection that I put my name on, because they're not blind projections. There's work put into each of them. 

Boyd is better than Sanu and perhaps better than Jones. The kid fell (if you wanna call the 2nd rd falling?) because he was in a run oriented offense. Where he quietly broke most if not all of Larry Fitzgerald's records and when Fitz was there they threw the ball.

He is a great addition and barring injury may surprise many of you at the next level. Great hands and route running are paramount in the NFL. There's a reason that Boldin is a SB champion and has been in the league for so long and it isn't his speed.

(05-06-2016, 03:46 PM)Stormborn Wrote: You'll never see me praise Kiper and McShay, they get all their info from secondary sources, our boy Duke said this himself.

Science is not, and never will be perfect, it's putting all your observations, information and data into a formulated, yes, estimation. I don't expect to be always right, but I do expect to be confident about any projection that I put my name on, because they're not blind projections. There's work put into each of them. 

Two things,

1.They get info form secondary sources of course, however they do in fact watch film as well.


2. How long have you been putting anything in writing to go back and look at? For someone with such conviction in what you think you know, I'd love to see this "science" in action.

(05-06-2016, 03:58 PM)Au165 Wrote: Two things,

1.They get info form secondary sources of course, however they do in fact watch film as well.


2. How long have you been putting anything in writing to go back and look at? For someone with such conviction in what you think you know, I'd love to see this "science" in action.

This was my first year putting anything in writing, I can post some if you'd like.

(05-06-2016, 04:11 PM)Stormborn Wrote: This was my first year putting anything in writing, I can post some if you'd like.

I'm good, thanks.

Just FYI Boyd ran the same 40 time as Jones when Boyd did his pro-day.

(05-06-2016, 04:23 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Just FYI Boyd ran the same 40 time as Jones when Boyd did his pro-day.

It's always funny how those 40 times magically decrease at pro days compared to the combine 40s.

Boyd plays closer to his 4.5 time than Jones's 4.4 time anyways.

(05-06-2016, 01:15 PM)The Burfict Answer Wrote: What's the knock on this kid?  I don't understand how fuller went before this kid off speed alone. Don't get me wrong speed kills but give me someone who has precise routes and able to find open spots on the field.

Not to mention kids Hands might be best in the draft.. I think he makes an immediate impact on our team  and we don't miss a beat on offense .

Like Stormborn has said, he's comparable to Sanu. The coaches have said that they expect him to play Sanu's role. The biggest knock on him, by analysts, is that he doesn't create separation. He usually had a defender on him when he made catches. That's about it.

(05-06-2016, 04:29 PM)Stormborn Wrote: It's always funny how those 40 times magically decrease at pro days compared to the combine 40s.

Boyd plays closer to his 4.5 time than Jones's 4.4 time anyways.

People can have bad days. Maybe he was really worried about it and didn't get any sleep or was just nervous since the speed you run will be a big impact on the rest of your life. Sometimes people run slower on their pro days.

(05-06-2016, 04:47 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: People can have bad days. Maybe he was really worried about it and didn't get any sleep or was just nervous since the speed you run will be a big impact on the rest of your life. Sometimes people run slower on their pro days.

40 times tend to get faster at pro days because they move from electronically timed at the combine to hand timed at the pro day.

(05-06-2016, 04:49 PM)Au165 Wrote: 40 times tend to get faster at pro days because they move from electronically timed at the combine to hand timed at the pro day.

Also some tracks are just faster.

Too much hype for no good reason IMO.

(05-06-2016, 04:37 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: Like Stormborn has said, he's comparable to Sanu. The coaches have said that they expect him to play Sanu's role. The biggest knock on him, by analysts, is that he doesn't create separation. He usually had a defender on him when he made catches. That's about it.

What I like about this guy is that he makes a lot of contested catches - his hands seem very reliable.  If you're not going to get separation you better come down with the ball - and from the little I've seen (highlights I'll grant you) he just seems to.

Can't wait to see him play

I agree he'll fill Sanu's versatile role in the offense. That doesn't make them the same receiver. I'm on board with those that believe while Jones and Sanu were good fits, and got good national recognition (name), they weren't irreplaceable. We only saw them all play a full year together when? This year? 2013 maybe. Either way half the time we were without them, so it shouldn't take much to upgrade (stability, good health).

Boyd may have been a 3rd round pick in other drafts, but with this weak wideout draft, he was taken at a perfect spot. He'll find his niche in the offense. I don't think we'll look too different.

(05-06-2016, 02:03 PM)Stormborn Wrote: Simply put, he's a smaller and less athletic Sanu (faster 40 doesn't equate better athlete). He's smoother in his routes and seems to have softer hands, but both have the same problem of getting separation. 

Sanu and Keenan Allen are two very accurate ceilings for him, and both were 3rd round players themselves. Hence why others and I thought the pick was a reach. 

As far as the offense not skipping a beat, we've no one outside of maybe Core who can replicate Jones's role, so, not sure about that.

Smaller less athletic sanu Lol ohhhkay

(05-06-2016, 10:02 PM)bengalsturntup5532 Wrote: Smaller less athletic sanu Lol ohhhkay

yep

(05-06-2016, 10:02 PM)bengalsturntup5532 Wrote: Smaller less athletic sanu Lol ohhhkay

Boyd


Sanu


You tell me.

(05-06-2016, 10:45 PM)Stormborn Wrote: yep

Both Boyd and Sanu are listed as 6'2'', and it's highly debatable if Sanu was more athletic.

(05-06-2016, 11:01 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Both Boyd and Sanu are listed as 6'2'', and it's highly debatable if Sanu was more athletic.

6'1" 197 v 6'2" 211 coming out

refer to metrics above as well

I'm not even sure what's being argued here or why.