Last year Hamilton stole 56 bases, but he was caught stealing way too often. His 23 times caught stealing was the most in the league and he only had a success rate of .709.

This year he has stolen 40 bases and has only been caught 6 tines. That is an excellent success rate of .870.

He is on pace to steal 86 bases. No major league player has stolen more than 80 bases in a season since Ricky Henderson swiped 93 in '88. That was 27 years ago.

Hamilton still needs to work a lot on his hitting and drawing more bases. His on base percentage is still under .300 and that just is not acceptable. But at least now when he gets on base he is much more effective at moving up into scoring position instead of creating more outs by being picked off or caught stealing.

You can tell a difference in his stealing this year from last. Last season he was mostly relying on his speed and beating the throws, this year you can notice he's choosing better pitches to steal on. He's gotten a little more disciplined in his approach which is helping his success.

I have a hard time coming to terms with how bad his hitting is. How does it get worse your second year on almost every level? Mind boggling really...

The good news about his hitting is that every time he hits a single or draws a walk, it essentially puts him in scoring position.

He could really be a special player if he could get his OBP up a little bit.

If Billy could draw the amount of walks Votto does, he'd probably have 60 stolen bases by now.

Joe Morgan often said a great base stealer should steal at 80 percent or better.

Could you imagine how many bases he could steal with just a decent OBP?

I'm sure his higher success is just a matter of learning. Everyone is better at this level, and it just takes a while to figure it out. And of course the more times you face a pitcher the more you know about his moves.

(06-30-2015, 10:42 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Could you imagine how many bases he could steal with just a decent OBP?

I'm sure his higher success is just a matter of learning.  Everyone is better at this level, and it just takes a while to figure it out.  And of course the more times you face a pitcher the more you know about his moves.

I think it's the other way around. Pitchers know how to get B-Ham out now. He seems to struggle on fastballs. His fastball % last year was right around 0.1%. This year it's -6.6%. He's improved with the curveball to. He jumped from 1.2 to 2.0. He plate discipline has gotten better. I am also concerned why I have not seen to many - if any at all - drag bunts. With his speed, he should be able to leg quite a few of those out.

His D is impeccable, also. I think he rated as the best Defensive CF in the league. 

Can you imagine what his  value would be with an average bat? I say he would be like a 4ish WAR player. Very, very solid.

Not giving up hope, either. Just worried that his second year in the league he has gotten worse vs better at the plate. All other aspects he has markedly improved on.

(06-30-2015, 10:09 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Joe Morgan often said a great base stealer should steal at 80 percent or better.

Getting caught stealing is bad.  It is like wiping out a hit or BB, and it is hard to get on base in the first place.  And advancing one base does not improve your chances of scoring by 100%.  So the benefit of advancing one base does not outweigh the chance of removing a base runner and adding an out.

I saw a mathematical formula that showed that if you don't steal at better than something like a 75% success rate you are actually hurting the team.  

(06-30-2015, 12:54 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: His D is impeccable, also. I think he rated as the best Defensive CF in the league. 

Can you imagine what his  value would be with an average bat?

This.

The guy needs to be bunting constantly.  Once you get the infielders playing in to guard against a bunt you have bigger gaps in the infield to hit the ball through. So just the threat of bunting should improve his batting average.

(06-30-2015, 12:54 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: I think it's the other way around. Pitchers know how to get B-Ham out now. He seems to struggle on fastballs. His fastball % last year was right around 0.1%. This year it's -6.6%. He's improved with the curveball to. He jumped from 1.2 to 2.0. He plate discipline has gotten better. I am also concerned why I have not seen to many - if any at all - drag bunts. With his speed, he should be able to leg quite a few of those out.

His D is impeccable, also. I think he rated as the best Defensive CF in the league. 

Can you imagine what his  value would be with an average bat? I say he would be like a 4ish WAR player. Very, very solid.

Not giving up hope, either. Just worried that his second year in the league he has gotten worse vs better at the plate. All other aspects he has markedly improved on.

I was talking in regard to base stealing and why his percentage is higher.