(07-07-2015, 01:26 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So according to these numbers Tannehill is twice as good as Andrew Luck.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than Russell Wilson.

Jay Cutler and Alex Smith are better than Tom Brady.


Very interesting

No, Fred, it isn't about who is best... it's about who delivers their worst and how often. Andy is clearly at the bottom of this list. He delivers less than good performances quite a bit. an OK game is in the 70's. 80's is very good, 90's is excellent, and above that is outstanding. A super high number is actually less of a guarantee of a win than a low number is indicative of losing.

I bet we could look at this situationally as well. Passer rating in the 4th quarter, playoffs only, when playing from behind, etc.

(07-07-2015, 01:07 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yup. And here's a comparison of the QBs over the last 2 years that have played at least 22 games and how their floor has looked. First number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '14. Second number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '13, then the total for the 2 years.

Thanks for putting this together. Tomorrow I want to put together sub 60 & 50 ratings as well and see how that looks like against wins. It seems like games in the 50's are almost unwinnable across the board based on what I was looking at.

(07-07-2015, 01:26 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So according to these numbers Tannehill is twice as good as Andrew Luck.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than Russell Wilson.

Jay Cutler and Alex Smith are better than Tom Brady.


Very interesting

I wouldn't look at it that way. For his career, Dalton has had 7,6,6,6 sub70 QB rated games from '11-'14. That's consistent, but it's consistently keeping him from being in the top 10. Look at it this way; with all those sub70 games, he's still doing enough to keep him, usually, in the middle of the pack.

Like was stated, if he can bring his floor up and stop dipping down so low, so often, he and the team would benefit greatly.

(07-07-2015, 01:43 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Thanks for putting this together. Tomorrow I want to put together sub 60 & 50 ratings as well and see how that looks like against wins. It seems like games in the 50's are almost unwinnable across the board based on what I was looking at.

These numbers actually show a lot about what Dalton's ceiling is too. Taking into account how many really bad games he's had, to (other than last year) stay in the middle of the pack, you have to be putting together some really good games as well. Look at the other QBs that have low 'floor' ratings and are also in the middle of the pack. That means they're not doing enough on the 'ceiling' side to increase their overall rating.

lol. The great thing about this is, it gives each side plenty of ammo for their argument.

(07-07-2015, 02:11 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: These numbers actually show a lot about what Dalton's ceiling is too. Taking into account how many really bad games he's had, to (other than last year) stay in the middle of the pack, you have to be putting together some really good games as well. Look at the other QBs that have low 'floor' ratings and are also in the middle of the pack. That means they're not doing enough on the 'ceiling' side to increase their overall rating.

lol. The great thing about this is, it gives each side plenty of ammo for their argument.

To your point he has had 13 games in which he has had a 90 or over rating between 13-14. Yep his career has been built perfectly for message board debate.

Dalton has only 10 games in the regular season the past two years with 70 or below passer rating. 6 of those games come from two teams. Maybe it's more of him playing good defenses than him being inconsistent.

(07-07-2015, 01:41 AM)PDub80 Wrote: No, Fred, it isn't about who is best... it's about who delivers their worst and how often.

Okay, no matter how you spin the semantics my point is still valid.

Luck produces his worst twice as often as Tannehill.

Russell Wilson produces his worst more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tom Brady produces his worst more than Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.

I made my original post it's own thread as this continues to derail the McCarron one. I am taking RFalk34's data and adding it in there as well. If you guys want to copy and past your replies so far, I think this would be a great debate.

LINK: http://bengalsboard.net/Thread-Andy-Dalton-and-the-QBR-Floor-Theory