Breaking down an unlikely Bengals path to the playoffs

Jay Morrison Staff Writer
9:27 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2016 Sports
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SPORTS

CINCINNATI, OH - JANUARY 09: Cincinnati Bengals fans hold a sign during the AFC Wild Card Playoff game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium on January 9, 2016 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

CINCINNATI
The Cincinnati Bengals head into the final quarter of the season trailing the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5 games with four to go, which means their run of five consecutive playoff appearances is likely to end.

But the Bengals aren’t mathematically eliminated yet.

It will take a heavy dose of optimism and suspension of reality to think they can forge the path, but here it is:

The first thing the Bengals have to do is win out, as even one loss will eliminate any chance of making the postseason.

The other thing that has to happen is both the Ravens and Steelers have to go 1-3 in in their final four games, which is tricky because they play each other in Week 16.

RELATED: Ranking the 7 biggest upsets in Battle of Ohio history

At first glance it doesn’t appear too far-fetched that Baltimore could go 1-3. The Ravens final four are at New England, vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh and at Cincinnati.

But the best bet for Bengals fans is to hope for a Ravens loss at home to the Eagles and then a win at Pittsburgh.

That’s because the remaining schedule for the Steelers includes a home game against Cleveland in Week 17. That has to be chalked up as the one allowable win to keep the Bengals alive.

Pittsburgh is at Buffalo on Sunday, then at Cincinnati and home against Baltimore before that season finale against a Browns team that could be fighting to avoid a 0-16 season.

RELATED: Bengals Andy Dalton nominated for NFL Man of the Year

At a quick glance it may appear as if the Bengals could lose one more game because if the Ravens and Steelers tie in Week 16 and go 0-3 in their other games, all three teams would be 7-8-1.

But the first tiebreaker in that scenario would be division record, and Baltimore would be 4-1-1 while the best the Bengals can finish is 4-2.

As far as the wildcard goes, the odds are longer.

The Bengals would need:

Denver to go 0-4 in its final four games (at Tennessee, vs. New England, at Kansas City, vs. Oakland).

Miami to go 1-3 or worse (vs. Arizona, at New York Jets, at Buffalo, vs. New England).

Buffalo to go 2-2 or worse (vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Cleveland, vs. Miami, at New York Jets)

San Diego to go 3-1 or worse (at Carolina, vs. Oakland, vs. Cleveland, vs. Kansas City)

And then whichever teams don’t win the AFC South – Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee are all 6-6 – to go 2-2 or worse.

Indianapolis: vs. Houston, at Minnesota, at Oakland, vs. Jacksonville

Houston: at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Cincinnati, at Tennessee

Tennessee: vs. Denver, at Kansas City, at Jacksonville, vs. Houston

Bengals do not deserve to be in playoffs.

Steelers are not going to lose three of last four games.

No way will we be the last wild card.

If by some fluke we made playoffs, we will go out again in first round. Neither of our lines is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage against another playoff team.

Finishing 8-7-1 will only drop our draft pick down making it unlikely that we can draft an impact player.

I cannot help but root for the Bengals every week but honestly it would be best if we lost out and got a top five pick.

(12-07-2016, 01:29 PM)Marlon23 Wrote: Breaking down an unlikely Bengals path to the playoffs

Jay Morrison  Staff Writer
9:27 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2016  Sports
Facebook Twitter   Share 0
SPORTS

CINCINNATI, OH - JANUARY 09: Cincinnati Bengals fans hold a sign during the AFC Wild Card Playoff game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium on January 9, 2016 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

CINCINNATI
The Cincinnati Bengals head into the final quarter of the season trailing the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5 games with four to go, which means their run of five consecutive playoff appearances is likely to end.

But the Bengals aren’t mathematically eliminated yet.

It will take a heavy dose of optimism and suspension of reality to think they can forge the path, but here it is:

The first thing the Bengals have to do is win out, as even one loss will eliminate any chance of making the postseason.

The other thing that has to happen is both the Ravens and Steelers have to go 1-3 in in their final four games, which is tricky because they play each other in Week 16.

RELATED: Ranking the 7 biggest upsets in Battle of Ohio history

At first glance it doesn’t appear too far-fetched that Baltimore could go 1-3. The Ravens final four are at New England, vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh and at Cincinnati.

But the best bet for Bengals fans is to hope for a Ravens loss at home to the Eagles and then a win at Pittsburgh.

That’s because the remaining schedule for the Steelers includes a home game against Cleveland in Week 17. That has to be chalked up as the one allowable win to keep the Bengals alive.

Pittsburgh is at Buffalo on Sunday, then at Cincinnati and home against Baltimore before that season finale against a Browns team that could be fighting to avoid a 0-16 season.

RELATED: Bengals Andy Dalton nominated for NFL Man of the Year

At a quick glance it may appear as if the Bengals could lose one more game because if the Ravens and Steelers tie in Week 16 and go 0-3 in their other games, all three teams would be 7-8-1.

But the first tiebreaker in that scenario would be division record, and Baltimore would be 4-1-1 while the best the Bengals can finish is 4-2.

As far as the wildcard goes, the odds are longer.

The Bengals would need:

Denver to go 0-4 in its final four games (at Tennessee, vs. New England, at Kansas City, vs. Oakland).

Miami to go 1-3 or worse (vs. Arizona, at New York Jets, at Buffalo, vs. New England).

Buffalo to go 2-2 or worse (vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Cleveland, vs. Miami, at New York Jets)

San Diego to go 3-1 or worse (at Carolina, vs. Oakland, vs. Cleveland, vs. Kansas City)

And then whichever teams don’t win the AFC South – Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee are all 6-6 – to go 2-2 or worse.

Indianapolis: vs. Houston, at Minnesota, at Oakland, vs. Jacksonville

Houston: at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Cincinnati, at Tennessee

Tennessee: vs. Denver, at Kansas City, at Jacksonville, vs. Houston

Let me ask you a question.  You said you don't believe they can win a SB with Dalton, is that correct?

Then what difference will it make if they make the playoffs and how many playoff games they win??

In your mind, they can't win the last playoff game with him at QB.  Until that changes, in your mind, they have no shot???

As far as reporting me, trust me, getting banned from a cotton pickin' football forum, doesn't even register on the richter scale of disappointments in my life!! 

(12-07-2016, 02:22 PM)bengals67 Wrote: Bengals do not deserve to be in playoffs.

Steelers are not going to lose three of last four games.

No way will we be the last wild card.

If by some fluke we made playoffs, we will go out again in first round. Neither of our lines is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage against another playoff team.

Finishing 8-7-1 will only drop our draft pick down making it unlikely that we can draft an impact player.

I cannot help but root for the Bengals every week but honestly it would be best if we lost out and got a top five pick.

Absolutely correct on all points. A+

(12-07-2016, 02:27 PM)bengalguy71 Wrote: Let me ask you a question.  You said you don't believe they can win a SB with Dalton, is that correct?

Then what difference will it make if they make the playoffs and how many playoff games they win??

In your mind, they can't win the last playoff game with him at QB.  Until that changes, in your mind, they have no shot???

As far as reporting me, trust me, getting banned from a cotton pickin' football forum, doesn't even register on the richter scale of disappointments in my life!! 

(12-07-2016, 02:22 PM)bengals67 Wrote: Bengals do not deserve to be in playoffs.

Steelers are not going to lose three of last four games.

No way will we be the last wild card.

If by some fluke we made playoffs, we will go out again in first round. Neither of our lines is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage against another playoff team.

Finishing 8-7-1 will only drop our draft pick down making it unlikely that we can draft an impact player.

I cannot help but root for the Bengals every week but honestly it would be best if we lost out and got a top five pick.

Neither did the 2007 9-7 New York Giants, but look at what happened to them.  Got hot and very, very lucky!!

There were 8 teams that were better during the season.

(12-07-2016, 02:37 PM)Marlon23 Wrote:

That's what I figured.

Please keep your Dalton posts in the Mega thread.  We're all kind of fatigued by them.

(12-07-2016, 02:39 PM)bengalguy71 Wrote: That's what I figured.

Please keep your Dalton posts in the Mega thread.  We're all kind of fatigued by them.