(05-08-2017, 09:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Actually, right now every team's odds are 50/50.  You either win the SB, or you don't. 

You said that to piss me off didn't you? You remember my ex playing the lottery thinking it was a 50/50 chance. You either win or you don't!

Lol-stupid *****!

(05-08-2017, 09:33 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: You said that to piss me off didn't you? You remember my ex playing the lottery thinking it was a 50/50 chance. You either win or you don't!

Lol-stupid *****!

Side note, I overheard two of my co-workers who play the lottery on a daily basis both complaining that their dumb-ass millennial kids "just blow their money."

(05-08-2017, 08:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes they are,

What they're basically saying is they know the Bengals are good enough to win some games in the regular season because of playing the Browns/AFCS/NFCN.

But they also know, as we do, that Marvin has zero chances of winning the Super Bowl ! Hell he can't even win a single playoff game.

I believe we have a winner!!!

(05-08-2017, 05:32 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15498624/2017-nfl-over-under-win-totals-cowboys-projected-win-nfc-east-giants-eagles-redskins
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/7/15571864/post-draft-super-bowl-odds-vegas-has-cowboys-with-third-best-odds-patriots-raiders

This is why I am looking for a friend that will be in Vegas soon.  I don't trust the online sites for something like a futures bet.

A great deal of this is history.  Vegas never (at least not that I can remember) takes a 4 win team and makes it an 8 win team.  I am surprised that they even gave 8.5 wins as the over/under.  

The way I would wager is $100 to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl.  So, if you win the division, you already covered all your bets, and you could even "hedge" your bets a little at each game.  By this, I mean if you have 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and you are already up for winning the division, you could wager against yourself in the first playoff game and each subsequent game at the payoffs from your early wagers will be so large.  

Titans at 9.5 wins? Ravens and Panthers at 9? I don't think as highly of these teams as Vegas does.

The good thing about Vegas odds makers is they really can't predict injuries and who will suffer them. It's not unheard of for the top rated team to have several of their top players go down or even just give up and retire from the game. The game is getting increasingly more dangerous every year despite the new rules every year and that's because players seem to get bigger and stronger every year. Then tack on suspensions, arrests and players who like to play with guns and so on.. Heck, for that matter there are more than enough unstable fans increasingly willing to kill players on opposing teams.. Talk about wild cards.. Someday an entire team will get wiped out in a plane crash. That would suck for someone who plops down several thousand bucks on their team winning the super bowl..
Well, that's enough pessimism for one day..
I wonder if the odds makers predicted that the Reds would go from first place to last place and back to first place within a few weeks..

(05-08-2017, 05:47 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: So 21/32 teams are projected to have a .500 or better finish?

Also, add up all the numbers and you get 259.  That number needs to be doubled to account for a winner AND loser or a tie and a tie.  

32 teams by 16 game schedule equals 512.  They have 6 extra wins or 3 extra ties in there.  From
What I can tell.

Maybe it has nothing to do with it and I am looking to far in, but these are good indicators I suppose

This makes sense.  Plus, they have to round up to half a game to eliminate the push, which is why the total is over the games played.

(05-08-2017, 09:42 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Side note, I overheard two of my co-workers who play the lottery on a daily basis both complaining that their dumb-ass millennial kids "just blow their money."

It was a grand ole time working at the gas station when I was in High School

"Mom can I get a candy bar?"

"No! We don't have that kind of money now grab Mom her tall boy while she decides her lottery numbers."

(05-09-2017, 05:57 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Titans at 9.5 wins?  Ravens and Panthers at 9?  I don't think as highly of these teams as Vegas does.

I don't either, and those were the 3 teams that surprised me the most on the list. I could see the Panthers rebounding, but I certainly wouldn't bet money on it.

The Ravens were lucky to win as many games as they did last year. Soft as butter schedule with some flukes mixed in. They have the talent of a 4 win team. Harbaugh is good enough to get them 2-4 extra wins. Anything more is seriously pushing it. The Titans are coming up, but I wouldn't like them at 9.0 wins if I were betting.

(05-09-2017, 05:57 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Titans at 9.5 wins?

Titans are going to be a serious player in the AFC this year.

They have a very good running game (3rd in total yards and 4th in yards per carry) and a very efficient QB (95.6 passer rating, 26 tds, only 9 ints).

They also had a very good run defense (2nd in yards allowed,  5th in tds allowed, 10th in yards per carry).

Their only big weakness was their defensive secondary.  So this off season they added free agent CB Logan Ryan (3 yr $30 mil), free agent Safety John Cyprian (4 yr $25 mil), and used the 18th pick of the first round on CB Adoree Jackson.

They were also pretty thin at WR so the addition of Corey davis with the #5 pick in the draft will help the passing game be even more productive..

Don't sleep on the Titans.  they are going to be tough this year.

(05-08-2017, 05:32 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

Lets face the facts, the only people who truly believe the Bengals will win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and possibly further are Bengal fans. (and thats only a portion of the fans)


After watching the major meltdown against the Steelers a few years ago in the playoffs didn't feel much different than them losing in '05 against the same team. Seems like Lewis hasn't learned much in disciplining and preparing a team and his own coaching staff in the playoffs. 

So does the Vegas odds shock me? No way, Id be shocked if they projected them to go far. Marvin Lewis will never take this team deep, its not in him or it would've happened by now. He's had his chances with multiple reconfigurations of this team from players and coaches and regardless always produce the same outcome.

The better Vegas odds would be when the hell he will finally leave Cincy.

If you bet $100 on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, you will lose $100. This team will be lucky to win 8 games this year. Yet alone, make the playoffs. I'm predicting only 6-10 this year with this oline. Heck, you might be better off betting on Cleveland winning 8 games.

(05-09-2017, 10:29 AM)CageTheBengal Wrote: It was a grand ole time working at the gas station when I was in High School

"Mom can I get a candy bar?"

"No! We don't have that kind of money now grab Mom her tall boy while she decides her lottery numbers."

A buddy of mine worked at SHeetz during college and he told me a kid asked his dad for a small thing of orange juice and the dad said "I'm not made of money!" and then bought a lottery ticket and a pack of Marlboros (because god forbid a man who isn't made of money smoke crap that doesn't have a billion-dollar ad campaign behind it).  It's PA so there was no beer there, but I'm sure he would have gotten some of that if he had the chance.

(05-08-2017, 09:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Man, I really wish I would have put money on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl!
- Said no one, ever

Well I bet someone said this in  Jan, 1989 with about 3 mins left.

(05-09-2017, 11:15 PM)bengalhoel Wrote: Well I bet someone said this in  Jan, 1989 with about 3 mins left.

Good point.  Also...ouch.

(05-09-2017, 12:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Titans are going to be a serious player in the AFC this year.

They have a very good running game (3rd in total yards and 4th in yards per carry) and a very efficient QB (95.6 passer rating, 26 tds, only 9 ints).

They also had a very good run defense (2nd in yards allowed,  5th in tds allowed, 10th in yards per carry).

Their only big weakness was their defensive secondary.  So this off season they added free agent CB Logan Ryan (3 yr $30 mil), free agent Safety John Cyprian (4 yr $25 mil), and used the 18th pick of the first round on CB Adoree Jackson.

They were also pretty thin at WR so the addition of Corey davis with the #5 pick in the draft will help the passing game be even more productive..

Don't sleep on the Titans.  they are going to be tough this year.

Yeah, I have heard all about how now that they have Corey Davis teams won't be able to stack the box to stop their running game.  Interesting, as teams have done that to the Bengals and they have had AJ Green.  Now with Ross opposite AJ, I believe that to be true.  The Titans are asking him to come in and be AJ.  Good luck with that.  

Their rushing attack was largely aided by a rushing QB, which led to him being injured.  It might have helped their stats a bit getting to play the Colts and Jags defenses twice as well.  I think that offense wouldn't get crap against the AFC North.   I don't think anyone will fear the Titans offense in this division.  

Lastly, if Adoree Jackson has to come in and play immediately, he will be torched time and time again.   

F*** Vegas.

The Cincinnati Bengals are going to win 10 or 11 games this year win AFC North and win a playoff game in spite of Marvin Lewis.