(08-20-2015, 11:12 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You need to do some research. I looked up a few well respected franchises 1st round picks from 2001 to 2012 (too early to judge after 2012) and we are discussing 2012.

Seattle - had 13 picks and missed on 8 so hit only 38.5% of 1st rounders. A. Curry, L Jackson, Spenser, Tubbs, J. Stevens, K Robinson, J. Carpenter, K. Jennings.

Colts - Missed on 5 of 11

I think if you look, you will see there are more 1st round misses than you thought by a lot of teams and not just teams bad at drafting like Cleveland

I'm trusting your research on this, but I'd like to clarify what's considered a "miss" here?  Does that mean not a starter?  No longer on the roster?  Not a contributor at all?

I just want to clarify because expectations increase or decrease based on where they're drafted.  Nobody expects a 6th round draft pick to be an opening day starter in year one.  

(08-20-2015, 10:22 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Okay, well there are some good points on both sides here, but let's not let Pong's insanity ruin my side of the debate here. Disregard his trolling for a minute and let me make a few points to the "not a great draft" side.

1. Name 5 RGs better than Zeitler for those that say he isn't top 5.

2. Name 10 SS better than Iloka for those that are unsure he's top 10.

3. I don't care if Marvin Jones had 700 yards and 10 TDs in one single game, he still did it in 2013 and we aren't putting up qualifiers for his peers, so can we leave it at the fact that he had a GREAT 2013 for a #2 WR on a team that was playing musical receivers half the season?? To pretend that he didn't look good outside of his big game is crazy, he consistently did exactly what Sanu struggled with which was getting separation on the outside. Andy targeted A.J. like 500 times that year, MLJ's statline would have been even more impressive had Andy/Gruden stopped locking in on A.J. as if he was the only guy that existed at times. MLJ got plenty of separation to get the targets, so it's not like Andy ignored him for the same reason as he didn't look Sanu's way when he was the #2.

4. I don't think we can call Thompson a terrible pick, but he wasn't a great one either. He still was able to come in and fill in for Geno just fine in 2013, though he wasn't going beast mode or anything.

5. I agree with Shake about not getting great value out of Dre Kirk. The best value is when you have guys tearing it up on their rookie contract, I completely agree with that. As it was said in that post, we're probably only getting 1 year out of his rookie deal where he's actually a big contributor, which sucks in a way. BUT, if he turns into a legit #1/2 CB, that's going to be considered a huge draft hit whether we got the most value out of his rookie deal or not. With the amount of busts in each draft, turning into a starting quality CB even after 3 years is still very, very good. Also, Shake (or maybe someone else) made a comment about Dre being the 4th/Dime CB, but when he was showing the flashes that our fanbase is now excited about, he was starting on the outside as a #1/2 CB. Let's not pretend he was covering scrubs every time he saw the field.

6. I also want to point out another thing Shake said that rubbed me the wrong way was mentioning that either MLJ or Sanu probably won't be on the team after next year, as if that would somehow make the 2012 draft worse? If that's not what you were implying, then my bad, but I don't think it should count against the team's drafting ability if one of the guys is likely going to be getting a contract from a different team because we can't afford to keep them all. If anything, IMO, that would make the draft seem even better in a way, because it's saying one of the players is good enough to get offered a bigger deal from a random team than we'd be willing to pay.

7. If you guys think it wasn't so impressive, show me some typical drafts that are considered just "okay" that are comparable to ours in 2012. Show me some drafts in recent years where a team got a couple top 10 guys at their positions along with 3+ other contributors as well. It doesn't happen as often as a lot of you want to believe. Right now, at this very time, no, this isn't the greatest draft of all time or anything, but it's certainly better than a lot of you will give it credit for.

1. Brandon Brooks, Zack Martin, Kyle Long, TJ Lang, Marshal Yanda. I do see him as a top 10 RG though.

2. B/R rated Iloka the 25th best safety. Whether or not he's a top 10 SS is still highly debatable at this point. He's very promising and has a bright future though.

3. If we were talking about a specific peer of MLJ's that had a huge game that bloated their stats, I'd point it out. Did MLJ have a "great" year in 2013? I wouldn't go that far. He was really inconsistent. He had 5 games with 12 yards or less. I'd say he was good that year, but I can't attach the "great" label to someone who completely disappeared that often. 

I do agree that MLJ gets separation that Sanu doesn't. AJ did have a career high 178 targets that year, plus we had the 2 TE thing going with Gresh and Eifert. That said, Dalton also had a career high in attempts. Lot of what-if's here. All I know is that MLJ wasn't consistently targeted. The reasons are debatable.

4. Anytime you spend a 3rd rounder and get the type of production we have from Thompson, it wasn't a good pick.

5. I agree. That said, it's still "what if" with DreKirk. We don't know if he'll be a stud starting CB. He could get exposed for all we know. He did get a few of his picks covering scrubs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember him taking Newman or Pac's place very often. Especially in 2013.

6. If we lose MLJ after this season and only got a couple seasons worth of production from him, it does make the 2012 draft worse, IMO. I don't judge drafts on what players do once they leave. I judge them on what the players did for the Bengals. 

7. I never said the 2012 draft was just "okay". I've said it was good through this entire thread. I just think it was "standard good", not a "masterclass" or a franchise altering draft that will go down in Bengals history. Heck, I think we've had multiple drafts that were better over the last 10 years. Were each one of these a "masterclass"? If so, this team should be steamrolling their way to multiple Super Bowls. I don't care who the HC and QB are.

(08-20-2015, 02:36 PM)jakefromstatefarm Wrote: I'm trusting your research on this, but I'd like to clarify what's considered a "miss" here?  Does that mean not a starter?  No longer on the roster?  Not a contributor at all?

I just want to clarify because expectations increase or decrease based on where they're drafted.  Nobody expects a 6th round draft pick to be an opening day starter in year one.  

I only looked at 1st round draft picks.

I looked to see how long their career was and their contribution. If they did not start over 50% over their career, I considered them not a great pick. I simply answered another post of someone stating they expected 1st round picks to be good.

There were many examples of bust 1st round picks on the teams I listed, never started consistently or never played more than 4 or 5 years in the NFL or never received a second contract from their current team.

But, don;t believe me, go do your own research and prove me wrong.

(08-20-2015, 03:25 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 3. If we were talking about a specific peer of MLJ's that had a huge game that bloated their stats, I'd point it out. Did MLJ have a "great" year in 2013? I wouldn't go that far. He was really inconsistent. He had 5 games with 12 yards or less. I'd say he was good that year, but I can't attach the "great" label to someone who completely disappeared that often. 


5. I agree. That said, it's still "what if" with DreKirk. We don't know if he'll be a stud starting CB. He could get exposed for all we know. He did get a few of his picks covering scrubs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember him taking Newman or Pac's place very often. Especially in 2013.

6. If we lose MLJ after this season and only got a couple seasons worth of production from him, it does make the 2012 draft worse, IMO. I don't judge drafts on what players do once they leave. I judge them on what the players did for the Bengals. 

7. I never said the 2012 draft was just "okay". I've said it was good through this entire thread. I just think it was "standard good", not a "masterclass" or a franchise altering draft that will go down in Bengals history. Heck, I think we've had multiple drafts that were better over the last 10 years. Were each one of these a "masterclass"? If so, this team should be steamrolling their way to multiple Super Bowls. I don't care who the HC and QB are.

3. Probably my biggest issue of your post is this. The coaching staff was playing musical receivers, so Jones wasn't "disappearing". There were games that the coaching staff was trying to force Sanu in where he didn't belong. Sanu is a good slot WR, but he's not the guy I want to see starting on the outside. MLJ constantly got separation and made catches when he was actually in the game and Andy looked his way. Also, 10 TDs is amazing, not many receivers in the entire league put up double digit TDs that year. I don't care if all 10 came in one game, that's still better than your average #2.

5. He was playing in the starting CB role on the outside sometimes last year. Those were the games that really got the DreKirk hype up, not his mediocre Dime performances from 2013.

6. What if MLJ has a great year in 2015 but then ends up somewhere else? I can completely understand the draft looking worse if he flakes out and gets injured again, doesn't play in 2015, then leaves, sure I'll agree with you then. If he has a solid year then leaves, it's still better value than most people have gotten out of their average mid-late round picks.

7. I was going back and forth on some of your points and some of others, so that's where the "just okay" thing came from. I know you've been saying it's good, though I do believe you're slightly underselling it, but others are much more guilty of that saying that it wasn't anything special at all. Which other drafts did we have over the last 10 years better than 2012?

(08-20-2015, 03:34 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I only looked at 1st round draft picks.

I looked to see how long their career was and their contribution. If they did not start over 50% over their career, I considered them not a great pick. I simply answered another post of someone stating they expected 1st round picks to be good.

There were many examples of bust 1st round picks on the teams I listed, never started consistently or never played more than 4 or 5 years in the NFL or never received a second contract from their current team.

But, don;t believe me, go do your own research and prove me wrong.

No, I'll take your word for it.  You're a solid poster and I don't see any reason to believe you'd make any of this up.

Thanks for answering.  I'm honestly shocked that the numbers are that low for that recent of a draft for those teams you listed.

Interesting indeed.  Good post.  

(08-20-2015, 03:39 PM)jakefromstatefarm Wrote: No, I'll take your word for it.  You're a solid poster and I don't see any reason to believe you'd make any of this up.

Thanks for answering.  I'm honestly shocked that the numbers are that low for that recent of a draft for those teams you listed.

Interesting indeed.  Good post.  

TY

My point simply was we all want/expect a 1st round pick to be a solid NFL starter for 10 years, but the reality is around the NFL a lot more misses than some of us ever thought.

I was trying to be fair by not listing the Browns or teams who lack success the last decade.