https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/2/17188798/andy-dalton-is-a-better-deep-ball-passer-than-you-realize

"Again, this post isn’t to paint Dalton as the best deep passer in the NFL, but it does show the criticism he receives is unfair and unwarranted."

(04-03-2018, 09:08 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/2/17188798/andy-dalton-is-a-better-deep-ball-passer-than-you-realize

"Again, this post isn’t to paint Dalton as the best deep passer in the NFL, but it does show the criticism he receives is unfair and unwarranted."

Good post. But most of us that don't hate Dalton already knew this, though, I admit I didn't realize he didn't have as bad a year throwing deep as I thought.

Deep ball has never been an issue for Andy; it's those out routes that get him. Of course I could be wrong, but I'd like to see where he ranks there.

(04-03-2018, 04:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Deep ball has never been an issue for Andy; it's those out routes that get him. Of course I could be wrong, but I'd like to see where he ranks there.

Agree mostly, but he has received and continues to get a ton of criticism about his deep throws. And it's been proven a few times now that it's just totally untrue.

Never has been as bad as some like to claim.

Plus last few years he just has not had any time for much to develop or go through reads.

Hopefully that changes this year.

(04-03-2018, 04:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Deep ball has never been an issue for Andy; it's those out routes that get him. Of course I could be wrong, but I'd like to see where he ranks there.

I didnt read the posted link in the OP. However, I will give you this. When Andy first came here and in year one launched a couple a deep balls, I was estatic because we were so weighed down by the Bratkowski offense. However, Andy had a better deep ball then. Now, he under throws or over throws and is rarely on target. I would like to see him fine tune that for sure.

Andy is a more than serviceable deep.ball.thrower
here's what I would like to know though
how many of his deep.throws have led to eventual Game winning drives or
given the Bengals the lead ??

He's trash on deep throws.... https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

Some notes about the link above: Select the Desktop site option if you're viewing on a mobile device. Also, open the glossary so you can understand the litany of stats, how and why they are important. TT = Time to Throw, for example. The line WAS bad last year as AD had the 3rd lowest time to throw. He was still bad at deep passes in 2016 (stats are there in the drop down)) whe line was fine and still had Whit and Zeitler. He's not good on throws over 30 yards, which is what most people today would consider a deep passes.

Also, "deep ball" in that article is anything 20+ yards. Dalton's fine at 20 yard, sure, but most people would consider that intermediate range. Not "deep ball"... Over 30? Typically Hot hot garbage.

Here's a profootball focus article breaking down deep passes by yardage and completion %. This is from the 2014 season's stats. Andy hasn't gotten appreciably better since then. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2

Notice the stink flowing off of his %? 2015 is an anomaly for Andy. 1 great season when he's surrounded by incredible talent doesn't overlower 6 ok seasons and crappy deep ball throws. Anyone who watches the games sees the way off misses, out of bounds throws, and underthrows.

If youre going to respond that I've interpreted this data wrong, please read the data first and look up the glossary to understand it so we can discuss. I'm open to being wrong or interpreting some of this poorly, but I've provided more in depth details and links beyond what Cincy Jungle has, and I've read through them quite a bit. Basically, I put some work in. Just show or explain to me with at least some detail/effort where these stats (and, of course what I've watched on the field) are wrong. But don't just come at me with nonsense and conjecture about feelings based on anything but facts, plays you've seen AD make and links so I can research.

Gotta have that OL for them deep balls to work well.

(04-04-2018, 09:54 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: Gotta have that OL for them deep balls to work well.

True! But, what's the excuse for the other 5 seasons he's stunk at it? It makes zero sense to usethe O Line excuse when discussing Andy's skill set as a passer over his career. He's not a rookie so there are plenty of other seasons to look at in totality.

He had a crap O-Line 1 time out of 7 seasons. He has been bad at deep balls 6 out of 7 seasons - I will look for similar stats for 2015 so I will give him the benefit of the doubt on that one until I find stats and can compare. Feel free to explain the other 5 seasons where he was avg to below avg to awful. Like, say, 2014 when his completion % on passes over 31 yards ranked LAST in the NFL (see link in my previous post) even though he had a top 3 or 4 WR as a deep threat in AJ Green. The O Line was fine in 2014.

Blame 2017's offensive line for, say 2016 or 2014's dirty laundry on the deep ball doesn't work. It's illogical.

(04-04-2018, 11:05 AM)PDub80 Wrote: True! But, what's the excuse for the other 5 seasons he's stunk at it? It makes zero sense to usethe O Line excuse when discussing Andy's skill set as a passer over his career. He's not a rookie so there are plenty of other seasons to look at in totality.

He had a crap O-Line 1 time out of 7 seasons. He has been bad at deep balls 6 out of 7 seasons - I will look for similar stats for 2015 so I will give him the benefit of the doubt on that one until I find stats and can compare. Feel free to explain the other 5 seasons where he was avg to below avg to awful. Like, say, 2014 when his completion % on passes over 31 yards ranked LAST in the NFL (see link in my previous post) even though he had a top 3 or 4 WR as a deep threat in AJ Green. The O Line was fine in 2014.

Blame 2017's offensive line for, say 2016 or 2014's dirty laundry on the deep ball doesn't work. It's illogical.

According to espn stats dalton completed 7 of 42 passes over 20 yards, which isn't that good. He barely threw the ball down the field, and when he did he missed most of the time.  I know one of those throws was a 15 yard throw to green against the titans, he made a nice move, and took it all the way for a 70 yard td.  

For comparison, according to espn stats, tyrod taylor completed 14 of 49 throws over 20 yards, which is almost twice the completion percentage of dalton last season. Now taylor is considered captain check down, yet daltons numbers are substantially worse. Also keep in mind that taylor didn't have a play maker like green to bail him out on some bad deep throws.

PFF has lost a lot of credibility the last few years and this confirms that, their ranking system is not very accurate at all. 

(04-04-2018, 09:39 AM)PDub80 Wrote: He's trash on deep throws.... https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

Some notes about the link above: Select the Desktop site option if you're viewing on a mobile device. Also, open the glossary so you can understand the litany of stats, how and why they are important. TT = Time to Throw, for example. The line WAS bad last year as AD had the 3rd lowest time to throw. He was still bad at deep passes in 2016 (stats are there in the drop down)) whe  line was fine and still had Whit and Zeitler. He's not good on throws over 30 yards, which is what most people today would consider a deep passes.

So which one of those stats shows how well Andt is throwing a deep pass?

(04-04-2018, 11:05 AM)PDub80 Wrote: He had a crap O-Line 1 time out of 7 seasons. He has been bad at deep balls 6 out of 7 seasons 

where are his stats for all 7 seasons?  How do you account for this?


"Dalton's career past deep passer rating was a 95.3, which should be shocking for fans who badmouthed him that whole time. Only nine quarterbacks had a better deep passer rating over that same span ('06-'17)" 


The numbers you posted from '14 show that he was the 4th highest rated on passes over 40 yards.

Maybe I am just missing some links you posted.  because I don't see anything you posted showing that Dalton has been bad at the deep ball for 6 of 7 seasons.

(04-04-2018, 04:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: where are his stats for all 7 seasons?  How do you account for this?


"Dalton's career past deep passer rating was a 95.3, which should be shocking for fans who badmouthed him that whole time. Only nine quarterbacks had a better deep passer rating over that same span ('06-'17)" 


The numbers you posted from '14 show that he was the 4th highest rated on passes over 40 yards.

Maybe I am just missing some links you posted.  because I don't see anything you posted showing that Dalton has been bad at the deep ball for 6 of 7 seasons.

You do realize you're talking to someone who thinks our OL was okay in 2016, right?

(04-03-2018, 04:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Deep ball has never been an issue for Andy; it's those out routes that get him. Of course I could be wrong, but I'd like to see where he ranks there.

Agreed.  What I find odd, it seemed Palmer also had that same issue, and he had a cannon.

(04-04-2018, 05:33 PM)PhilHos Wrote: You do realize you're talking to someone who thinks our OL was okay in 2016, right?

Also.....AJ Green missed substantial time in 2014....the year he specifically mentioned.  Marvin Jones was out too.  Mo Sanu was our #1 WR for several games, IIRC.

Compare Dalton's deep ball numbers to the best in the division (Ben) and the best in the NFL (Brady) since 2011.

These are their numbers on passes that traveled 21+ yards through the air (no YAC):

Dalton

113 of 361 (31.3% completion rate)
89.4 passer rating
4349 yards (38.5 yards per completion)
37 TDs
20 INTs
Frequency of deep passes (10.15% of all attempts)
10.25% TD rate
5.54% INT rate

Ben

148 of 460 (32.2% completion rate)
86.4 passer rating
5453 yards (36.8 yards per completion)
50 TDs
31 INTs
Frequency of deep passes (12.46% of all attempts)
10.87% TD rate
6.74% INT rate

Brady

128 of 402 (31.8% completion rate)
88.8 passer rating
4586 yards (35.8 yards per completion)
34 TDs
15 INTs
Frequency of deep passes (9.82% of all attempts)
8.46% TD rate
3.73% INT rate
___________________________________

Looking over these stats, there's not much that separates them. Brady and Dalton's stats are eerily similar. All of the completion rates are within 1% of each other, which is a negligible difference. Dalton has the best passer rating by a bit. His completions went for more yards. He's thrown deep slightly less often than Ben, but more than Brady. His TD and INT rates are both better than one and worse than the other. 

Therefore, if you think Dalton has sucked on deep throws, you have to objectively think Ben and Brady have also been bad. 

I used ESPN for reference. Here's the link to each page. You can pick each year at the top of their menu:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2330/year/2011
http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/5536/year/2011
http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14012/year/2011

(04-05-2018, 12:37 PM)Wyche Wrote: Also.....AJ Green missed substantial time in 2014....the year he specifically mentioned.  Marvin Jones was out too.  Mo Sanu was our #1 WR for several games, IIRC.

...and Dalton wasn't even all that bad on deep throws in 2014. His INT rate was the highest in his career (on throws of 21+), but he was still making plays.

Overall, he went 14 of 43 (32.6%) for 583 yards, 6 TDs and 4 INTs on throws of 21+ that year. Brady, Ben and Dalton all had several worse years when I ran the numbers over.

The fact is Dalton has taken a ton of crap for being inaccurate with deep throws, weak armed, throwing out of bounds, and on and on. But when you look at the numbers compared to his peers, he's right in the hunt.

I'm sure some will argue otherwise but the fact is he has a pretty good deep ball !

Dalton's long ball stats, being decent for his career, are more a function of AJ bailing him out, than Dalton being a good deep thrower. Nobody in the NFL gets more separation on deep balls than AJ Green. Numerous times during a season, AJ will have 10 yards of separation, and Dalton will overthrow AJ forcing him to have to stretch out for the catch, or he'll under throw him, and hell have to come back and win a jump ball against 3 defensive backs.

To compare Dalton to Brady is clownish and a huge stretch. Look at what Brady did the year he had a talent in his prime comparable to a prime Green, Moss in 07, Brady absolutely dominated that season and tore it up. I could imagine Brady with AJ as a wide out. AJ would have 2000 yards and 20 td's . Brady would have a similar year that he had in 07.