(04-07-2018, 11:28 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The problem is with your logic. Lets assume same amount of deep throws to each.  Also assume that each deep throw scores a TD if hit in stride.  This is purely an example. The numbers being used are for illustration purposes.

Brady hits Moss on 15 of 50 deep throws.  He scores 15 TD's

Dalton hits Green on 5 of 50 deep passes.  Green scores 5 TD's on the deep throws. 

If Dalton hit Green at the same rate as Brady hit Moss, then Green would have had 15 TD's on deep throws instead of 5. That's 10 more and increases his TD percentage from 28% to say 50% of all Dalton throws

But that is not what happened.

Moss got more balls thrown to him because he got open more often.  That is why he had so many more tds.  If Dalton had Moss getting open so many more times than Green then he would have had a lot more tds.



BTW I am not really claiming my argument is correct.  I am just showing that your argument proves nothing.  You are picking a conclusion then making up the facts to fit your conclusion.

(04-07-2018, 11:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I brought it up because it makes Dalton look better.  What is wrong with that?  What is so magical about the year 2014 that makes it the proper cut off to judge Dalton?  Why do the years before that not count?

Of course 2013 makes Andy look better; as it was an outlier. I was simply pointing out that folks like to bring up one year in a 7 year career. It's just I was told by someone that they wouldn't point to it as a trend. Seems I was right gain. 

(04-07-2018, 11:38 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Of course 2013 makes Andy look better; as it was an outlier. I was simply pointing out that folks like to bring up one year in a 7 year career. It's just I was old by someone that they wouldn't point to it as a trend. Seems I was right gain. 

I don't know what this even means.  I was not just looking at one year.  I was just adding more info to the 4 years PDUB had already posted.

I think I have made it very clear that I prefer to look at the entire career to judge a QB, and according to the OP Dalton's career numbers make himtop ten since '06.

(04-07-2018, 11:43 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't know what this even means.  I was not just looking at one year.  I was just adding more info to the 4 years PDUB had already posted.

I think I have made it very clear that I prefer to look at the entire career to judge a QB, and according to the OP Dalton's career numbers make himtop ten since '06.

Yet you brought up one year. Of course you weren't focusing on it, you were just saying,

(04-07-2018, 11:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But that is not what happened.

Moss got more balls thrown to him because he got open more often.  That is why he had so many more tds.  If Dalton had Moss getting open so many more times than Green then he would have had a lot more tds.



BTW I am not really claiming my argument is correct.  I am just showing that your argument proves nothing.  You are picking a conclusion then making up the facts to fit your conclusion.

I'll bet money Green got open on deep routes as often as Moss.  I'll also bet that Brady hit Moss in stride much more often than Dalton hit Green in stride.   

You cannot prove Moss got open more than Green. Where is your proof. 

(04-07-2018, 11:54 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I'll bet money Green got open on deep routes as often as Moss.  I'll also bet that Brady hit Moss in stride much more often as Dalton hit Green in stride.   

You cannot prove Moss got open more than Green. Where is your proof. 

Where's yours?

(04-07-2018, 11:38 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Of course 2013 makes Andy look better; as it was an outlier.

Actually 2013 is not an outlier at all.

Here is daltons passer rating for throws over 30 yards past the line of scrimmage by year

'11.....97.2 (24 attempts)
'12.....84.5 (22)
'13....109.2 (27)
'14....106.9 (14)
'15.... 68.9  (23)
'16....133.4 (21)
'17.... 95.5 (22)
total..100.3 (153)

(04-07-2018, 11:54 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I'll bet money Green got open on deep routes as often as Moss.  I'll also bet that Brady hit Moss in stride much more often than Dalton hit Green in stride.   

You cannot prove Moss got open more than Green. Where is your proof. 

You have no proof either.

That is my point.

(04-07-2018, 02:28 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Who cares if there facts, they are just stats with very little context unless you figure out who each qb had as weapons to throw the ball too. Its not being salty, it's calling out a completely nonsense statement comparing Dalton to Brady which most fans would consider clownish. To even make that comparison is a joke. 

Wer'e talking about DEEP THREATS! Since when is Gronk a deep threat like AJ Green?? Like I stated, the only time Brady had a wide receiver comparable to AJ green was in 07 when he had a prime Randy Moss, and he put up insane numbers that Dalton has never come close to putting up. 50 TD's and 8 INTS. Moss had 23 TD's

If he had his best year when AJ Green missed 7 games, how many of those completion were to AJ Green? Show some details to back up that argument. I'll bet 70% of those completions went to the play maker AJ Green.

The joke is trying to twist it as if I were saying Dalton = Brady as a QB. I know how this works though. If I bring up the best QB's to show that Dalton is hanging with them in the deep ball department, you claim it's ridiculous to compare Dalton to Brady/Ben/Rodgers, etc. But if I bring up some average or trash QB's for comparison, you'd say that Dalton should be better than those guys. Kinda silly, don't ya think? 

Btw, Dalton completed 9 passes exceeding 30+ yards to WR's and TE's not named AJ Green in 2016. This included:

86 yarder to Brandon LaFell
71 yarder to Tyler Eifert
54 yarder to CJ Uzomah
50 yarder to Cody Core
49 yarder to Brandon LaFell
44 yarder to Brandon LaFell
44 yarder to Brandon LaFell
31 yarder to Cody Core
30 yarder to Tyler Boyd

(04-07-2018, 08:36 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Paltering: Using facts to deceive. Just because something is true, doesn't make it accurate.

The stats you put forth are for throws 20+ yards. 20 - 30 yards are considered intermediate/medium throws. I provided a link where Andy was the worst in the NFL at 31+

Funny thing is, I was hesitant to include the 21-30 yard category, because I know after years of doing these little debates that Dalton kinda sucks in that range. He actually shines much brighter from 31+. I was trying to be fair, not deceptive. But I'll go ahead and redo my original post with just the throws of 31+ yards:

Dalton

55 of 158 (34.8%) - See, the percentage actually went UP. 
2599 yards
20 TDs
8 INTs
101.7 rating - Here it went way up. 

Brady

32 of 142 (22.5%) 
1542 yards
9 TDs
9 INTs
67.0 rating 

Yikes. Brady's stats got a whole hell of a lot worse when we switch it up to just 31+ yard throws. His bread and butter was actually deep mid-range (21-30), so removing that helps Dalton and hurts Brady big time.

Ben

58 of 213 (27.2%)
2793 yards
25 TDs
16 INT's (double Andy's INT's)
87.0 rating

Not only has Ben been less successful on 31+ yard throws, he's also been much more prone to throwing picks.

------------------------------------

Sheesh. This kinda backfired on ya, didn't it Pdub? 

I never clicked your link because - to be frank - I've spent way too much time debating this stuff through the years, and I have almost every argument, angle and stat almost memorized. I don't need to click a link. I know Dalton's deep ball stats have actually been on the better end of NFL QB's over the course of his career. 

Now if you want to bash him, you should probably look at the mid-range throws that require Dalton to really sling it in there on a rope. He's struggled a bit at that 21-30 range that you claimed he was better at. He actually has a career 66.0 rating in that range. Yikes.

Again, I use ESPN splits to collect these stats. I can go year by year if anyone wants to see it.

(04-07-2018, 09:17 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Again, for the umpteenth time in this thread, Andy is ok 20-30 yards. 30+ he's trash. Stats prove it.

See above post.

(04-08-2018, 01:16 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The joke is trying to twist it as if I were saying Dalton = Brady as a QB. I know how this works though. If I bring up the best QB's to show that Dalton is hanging with them in the deep ball department, you claim it's ridiculous to compare Dalton to Brady/Ben/Rodgers, etc. But if I bring up some average or trash QB's for comparison, you'd say that Dalton should be better than those guys. Kinda silly, don't ya think? 

Btw, Dalton completed 9 passes exceeding 30+ yards to WR's and TE's not named AJ Green in 2016. This included:

86 yarder to Brandon LaFell
71 yarder to Tyler Eifert
54 yarder to CJ Uzomah
50 yarder to Cody Core
49 yarder to Brandon LaFell
44 yarder to Brandon LaFell
31 yarder to Cody Core
30 yarder to Tyler Boyd

Your showing 8 throws to Bengals players who are not AJ Green, this means he caught 11, which is 58%. Also, for that year, how many TD's were to Green and how many were to the other players? That's a small sample size, and his career stats would be a better measurement.

What would prove how much Green helps Dalton on the deep balls is what Daltons ratings are when he targets AJ Green, and what his ratings are when he targets other Bengals players.

If for example, Dalton has a 120 QB rating on deep throws targeting AJ for his career, then we know AJ has a hugely positive influence on Daltons deep ball ratings. This would indicate that for Bengals players not named AJ Green, his ratings would plummet on deep throws.  

One thing these stats don't show is how many bad balls were caught and how many good balls were dropped. It also doesn't show how many times receivers were open and Dalton decided to check it down to a bengals players instead. If a QB only throws a deep ball under optimum conditions, and takes fewer shots down the field, then his numbers will be higher simply because he picks his spots better than someone who throws the ball down the field a lot.

(04-08-2018, 02:12 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Your showing 8 throws to Bengals players who are not AJ Green, this means he caught 11, which is 58%. Also, for that year, how many TD's were to Green and how many were to the other players? That's a small sample size, and his career stats would be a better measurement.

What would prove how much Green helps Dalton on the deep balls is what Daltons ratings are when he targets AJ Green, and what his ratings are when he targets other Bengals players.

If for example, Dalton has a 120 QB rating on deep throws targeting AJ for his career, then we know AJ has a hugely positive influence on Daltons deep ball ratings. This would indicate that for Bengals players not named AJ Green, his ratings would plummet on deep throws.  

One thing these stats don't show is how many bad balls were caught and how many good balls were dropped. It also doesn't show how many times receivers were open and Dalton decided to check it down to a bengals players instead. If a QB only throws a deep ball under optimum conditions, and takes fewer shots down the field, then his numbers will be higher simply because he picks his spots better than someone who throws the ball down the field a lot.

It was 9 completion of 30+ yards to other receivers. Dalton completed a pair of 44 yarders to LaFell and I mistakenly only listed one.

Some of these stats you ask for have not been recorded by anyone ever. Too specific. But the stats that have been posted should suffice or at least give you a good idea that Dalton does not suck on deep throws. I'm sorry, but if he sucked, he would not produce repetitively. Ben has undeniably had better deep threats and posts objectively worse production.

Crappy players can produce for short stretches, but I'm of the belief that things always even out eventually. Dalton has been at this for 7 years, posting good deep ball stats. Eventually people such as yourself should just look at the production and maybe admit you were wrong.

I won't hold my breath though.

(04-08-2018, 01:16 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The joke is trying to twist it as if I were saying Dalton = Brady as a QB. I know how this works though. If I bring up the best QB's to show that Dalton is hanging with them in the deep ball department, you claim it's ridiculous to compare Dalton to Brady/Ben/Rodgers, etc. But if I bring up some average or trash QB's for comparison, you'd say that Dalton should be better than those guys. Kinda silly, don't ya think? 

Btw, Dalton completed 9 passes exceeding 30+ yards to WR's and TE's not named AJ Green in 2016. This included:

86 yarder to Brandon LaFell
71 yarder to Tyler Eifert
54 yarder to CJ Uzomah
50 yarder to Cody Core
49 yarder to Brandon LaFell
44 yarder to Brandon LaFell
44 yarder to Brandon LaFell
31 yarder to Cody Core
30 yarder to Tyler Boyd


Funny thing is, I was hesitant to include the 21-30 yard category, because I know after years of doing these little debates that Dalton kinda sucks in that range. He actually shines much brighter from 31+. I was trying to be fair, not deceptive. But I'll go ahead and redo my original post with just the throws of 31+ yards:

Dalton

55 of 158 (34.8%) - See, the percentage actually went UP. 
2599 yards
20 TDs
8 INTs
101.7 rating - Here it went way up. 

Brady

32 of 142 (22.5%) 
1542 yards
9 TDs
9 INTs
67.0 rating 

Yikes. Brady's stats got a whole hell of a lot worse when we switch it up to just 31+ yard throws. His bread and butter was actually deep mid-range (21-30), so removing that helps Dalton and hurts Brady big time.

Ben

58 of 213 (27.2%)
2793 yards
25 TDs
16 INT's (double Andy's INT's)
87.0 rating

Not only has Ben been less successful on 31+ yard throws, he's also been much more prone to throwing picks.

------------------------------------

Sheesh. This kinda backfired on ya, didn't it Pdub? 

I never clicked your link because - to be frank - I've spent way too much time debating this stuff through the years, and I have almost every argument, angle and stat almost memorized. I don't need to click a link. I know Dalton's deep ball stats have actually been on the better end of NFL QB's over the course of his career. 

Now if you want to bash him, you should probably look at the mid-range throws that require Dalton to really sling it in there on a rope. He's struggled a bit at that 21-30 range that you claimed he was better at. He actually has a career 66.0 rating in that range. Yikes.

Again, I use ESPN splits to collect these stats. I can go year by year if anyone wants to see it.

Ok, so, to recap...

You didn't click any of my MANY links and read the info supporting my points (SO, ZERO EFFORT TO LEARN OR CONSIDER ANYONE ELSE'S IDEAS).... and then provided absolutely ZERO links supporting yours? I provided multiple sources and different breakdowns with many types of data and you have.... ESPN split stats? There's so much more data than that. If you would have read it you wouldn't have the opinion you do. To simplify the game of professional football into very basic stats is wrong. To simplify one player's multi year career by one stat line or season comparison is wrong. That's Paltering, which is why I linked the definition to it.

I get why fans of a player or team would do it, I really do, but until you're willing to at least listen or give consideration to the people you're engaged in conversation with, I can't respect or take your (IMO, willfully uninformed) opinion with anything other than a "fanboy" grain of salt. I go through a lot of effort to provide links and read through information before posting opinions. For you to respond without even reading them makes it tough to have meaningful back and forth interaction. You're a Bengals fan and I'm interested in your perspective and why you have it, which is why I'm on the forums. With honesty, I read links others provide (when they rarely do) just so I can understand where they're coming from and possibly continue to form my own opinion with a new take.

I get why you wouldn't want to do that same. Defending a player or fan favorite is common in sports - especially if, like Andy, they're an A++ person. But, if you're going to be in a discussion about a specific subject, it would be great if you at least checked out what your fellow fans are basing their opinions on if they provide links, etc.

(04-07-2018, 11:31 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Let's ask a question and see if we can get an honest answer:

Is Andy closer to Tom or id AJ closer to Randy

AJ is way closer to Randy that Dalton is to Brady. I'd have a hard time believing anyone would dispute that.

(04-08-2018, 11:51 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Ok, so, to recap...

You didn't click any of my MANY links and read the info supporting my points (SO, ZERO EFFORT TO LEARN OR CONSIDER ANYONE ELSE'S IDEAS).... and then provided absolutely ZERO links supporting yours? I provided multiple sources and different breakdowns with many types of data and you have.... ESPN split stats? There's so much more data than that. If you would have read it you wouldn't have the opinion you do. To simplify the game of professional football into very basic stats is wrong. To simplify one player's multi year career by one stat line or season comparison is wrong. That's Paltering, which is why I linked the definition to it.

I get why fans of a player or team would do it, I really do, but until you're willing to at least listen or give consideration to the people you're engaged in conversation with, I can't respect or take your (IMO, willfully uninformed) opinion with anything other than a "fanboy" grain of salt. I go through a lot of effort to provide links and read through information before posting opinions. For you to respond without even reading them makes it tough to have meaningful back and forth interaction. You're a Bengals fan and I'm interested in your perspective and why you have it, which is why I'm on the forums. With honesty, I read links others provide (when they rarely do) just so I can understand where they're coming from and possibly continue to form my own opinion with a new take.

I get why you wouldn't want to do that same. Defending a player or fan favorite is common in sports - especially if, like Andy, they're an A++ person. But, if you're going to be in a discussion about a specific subject, it would be great if you at least checked out what your fellow fans are basing their opinions on if they provide links, etc.

Ok, so a recap back atcha.

1. You shrug at the Cincy Jungle article posted by OP (bengalfan74) because it doesn't suit your narrative.

2. You substitute a 3 year old PFO article - and maybe I'm looking at it wrong? - but it looks like Dalton graded 16th on throws of 31-40 yards and 5th on throws of 40+ yards in 2014 (the year referenced). 

3. Your other link provides no category that would be clearly relevant to a discussion about deep passing.

4. You complain about me disrespecting you by not clicking your link, then go on to disrespect me by throwing out the "fanboy" garbage and mocking the stats I present. Mock the base stats all you want, I'll just say this. There's a reason people use them the most. 99 times out of 100, they give you a good idea of what's really going on, on the field. 

If Peyton Manning has 55 TDs and a 115 passer rating, it's a safe bet he looked pretty good on the field as well. If Dalton has a 101.7 rating on deep balls with more than double the TDs of Tom Brady, he's probably doing pretty well there in real life. The funny part is, a second ago you were just fine with the base stats, you just thought I was attempting to deceive by also using the 21-30 yard category. Now that you find out I wasn't, and that Dalton has actually been better from 31+, suddenly base stats are garbage and you're scrambling to shift what you meant when you said I was "paltering". 

(04-08-2018, 03:10 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It was 9 completion of 30+ yards to other receivers. Dalton completed a pair of 44 yarders to LaFell and I mistakenly only listed one.

Some of these stats you ask for have not been recorded by anyone ever. Too specific. But the stats that have been posted should suffice or at least give you a good idea that Dalton does not suck on deep throws. I'm sorry, but if he sucked, he would not produce repetitively. Ben has undeniably had better deep threats and posts objectively worse production.

Crappy players can produce for short stretches, but I'm of the belief that things always even out eventually. Dalton has been at this for 7 years, posting good deep ball stats. Eventually people such as yourself should just look at the production and maybe admit you were wrong.

I won't hold my breath though.

If his numbers are above average it is because of two factors: one AJ green is making acrobatic catches on bad balls that are overthrown or under thrown, and two he is throwing way less deep balls than someone like big ben. This would indicate he only throws a deep ball if someone is wide open and doesn't fit it into a tight window. 

Now I watch the games, and I see AJ making a lot of circus catches on badly thrown deep balls, so I would believe, based on observations, AJ is bailing out Dalton, and that is why his numbers are that high. If Dalton didn't have AJ his deep ball numbers would plummet. 

Now one stat given show good deep ball numbers, and the other one, provided by pdub ,show not good numbers. Which numbers are to believed would be open for debate. I personally would believe the more detailed analysis given by pdub, than the other set of numbers that were shown. 

Now I'm not going to allow you Dalton defenders to manipulate stats and argue that he's good at throwing the deep ball when my observations , and I watch a lot of games, show AJ is the one whose bailing out Dalton, and artificially propping up his numbers on deep balls. I will admit nothing because I 100% believe in my observations and stand by them.

(04-04-2018, 04:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So which one of those stats shows how well Andt is throwing a deep pass?

So Pdub, now that I've clicked your link: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

I have the same question Fred does. Which of these stats shows how well Andy is throwing a deep pass?

(04-08-2018, 02:30 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: 1. If his numbers are above average it is because of two factors: one AJ green is making acrobatic catches on bad balls that are overthrown or under thrown, 2. and two he is throwing way less deep balls than someone like big ben. This would indicate he only throws a deep ball if someone is wide open and doesn't fit it into a tight window. 

3. Now I watch the games, and I see AJ making a lot of circus catches on badly thrown deep balls, so I would believe, based on observations, AJ is bailing out Dalton, and that is why his numbers are that high. If Dalton didn't have AJ his deep ball numbers would plummet. 

4. Now one stat given show good deep ball numbers, and the other one, provided by pdub ,show not good numbers. Which numbers are to believed would be open for debate. I personally would believe the more detailed analysis given by pdub, than the other set of numbers that were shown. 

5. Now I'm not going to allow you Dalton defenders to manipulate stats and argue that he's good at throwing the deep ball when my observations , and I watch a lot of games, show AJ is the one whose bailing out Dalton, and artificially propping up his numbers on deep balls. I will admit nothing because I 100% believe in my observations and stand by them.

1. This is a subjective statement that is impossible to prove either way. I will say that if you think other QB's aren't getting "bailed out" on deep throws, you must not watch other teams very closely.

2. Dalton has thrown 31+ yards on 4.28% of all attempts. Ben on 5.77% of all attempts. Brady on 3.47%. These differences are negligible though. Over the course of 500 attempts, this would equate to a grand total of 7 more deep throws by Ben. This is not a big enough discrepancy to indicate anything, and saying that it indicates that Dalton "only throws when someone is wide open" is kinda wild and baseless.

I could easily respond by saying that maybe Dalton is a bit more selective on his deep throws, and that would explain why Dalton has more success on slightly fewer attempts. I won't say that though, because there's not enough evidence to make a claim either way.

3. I see some circus catches. I see times where Dalton throws an absolute dime. I see times where Dalton made a good choice and it was a little behind or ahead and still caught. I see times (especially last year) where Dalton threw it too far out of bounds. I see the exact same things when I watch other QB's throw deep. These things aren't exclusive to Dalton. 

The numbers show Dalton is more successful more often than most. And again, the year that AJ Green missed essentially half the season, Dalton did just fine on deep throws.

4. I'm not surprised you would pick the stats that support your take. I don't know what Pdub's links really show, though.

5. What stats did I manipulate?  

(04-08-2018, 11:51 AM)PDub80 Wrote: I get why you wouldn't want to do that same. Defending a player or fan favorite is common in sports - especially if, like Andy, they're an A++ person. But, if you're going to be in a discussion about a specific subject, it would be great if you at least checked out what your fellow fans are basing their opinions on if they provide links, etc.

Trolling is also common on team sport message boards.

And that is what leads to comments like these

(04-07-2018, 08:33 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Without AJ Green, Andy Dalton is steaming hot dog crap

Note the excuses people make for 2014 Andy. He looked like a lost little kid at the grocery without his daddy to take lead him around when AJ Green was hurt.

At the same time you ignored the fact that on throws over 30 yards that year Dalton had a 106.9 passer rating.

You claim that he "stinks" at the deep ball yet you never show him getting a grade lower than average "C".

The "Deep Ball Blitz" rankings you posted are subjective opinion stats.  If a guy likes Luck more than Dalton then he will see Dalton's receiver "adjusting" while Luck's is not. And exactly how accurate is accurate?  Zero movement of receivers hands?  Six inches?  A foot?  Only a miniscule percentage of passes hit a receiver directly between the numbers. If the ball is over the receivers shoulder does it have to drop right into his belly?  Or hands out at chest height?  Or hands out at face height?  

It is these type of subjective ratings that resulted in PFF claiming in '15 Dre Kirkpatrick was the 112th ranked CB behind a bunch of scrubs who barely played while he was playing 97% of the snaps on the #5 ranked pass defense and placing in the top 30 in almost every objective coverage stat (yards per target, completion percentage allowed, success rate, etc).

I welcome any stats from any source.  I love that this link you provided had a list of all the QBs to compare.  I have no idea why ESPN keeps track of those stats but won't provide them in a useful format.  The only thing I am wary of is subjective type stats where two players can both do their job but one gets graded much higher than the other.  Just too many ways that can get skewed.

I have not watched every deep ball thrown by every QB in the league, but I have watched all the other QBs throwing deep against the Bengals plus several other random games over the course of a year.  Seems to me Andy hits the deep ball as well as most other QBs.

I think too many people are influenced by only watching highlights where the QB hits the receiver every time.

(04-03-2018, 07:31 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I didnt read the posted link in the OP. However, I will give you this. When Andy first came here and in year one launched a couple a deep balls, I was estatic because we were so weighed down by the Bratkowski offense. However, Andy had a better deep ball then. Now, he under throws or over throws and is rarely on target. I would like to see him fine tune that for sure.

I think what has happened is they try to fine tune those deep balls right on the sideline, where only AJ can catch it.  If there is even the slightest bit of drift, ball goes out of bounds or over receiver's head.  I'm guessing that most of the underthrown balls are by design for the receiver to be able to come back to them.