(04-08-2018, 03:26 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. This is an subjective statement that is impossible to prove either way. I will say that if you think other QB's aren't getting "bailed out" on deep throws, you must not watch other teams very closely.

2. Dalton has thrown 31+ yards on 4.28% of all attempts. Ben on 5.77% of all attempts. Brady on 3.47%. These differences are negligible though. Over the course of 500 attempts, this would equate to a grand total of 7 more deep throws by Ben. This is not a big enough discrepancy to indicate anything, and saying that it indicates that Dalton "only throws when someone is wide open" is kinda wild and baseless.

I could easily respond by saying that maybe Dalton is a bit more selective on his deep throws, and that would explain why Dalton has more success on slightly fewer attempts. I won't say that though, because there's not enough evidence to make a claim either way.

3. I see some circus catches. I see times where Dalton throws an absolute dime. I see times where Dalton made a good choice and it was a little behind or ahead and still caught. I see times (especially last year) where Dalton threw it too far out of bounds. I see the exact same things when I watch other QB's throw deep. These things aren't exclusive to Dalton. 

The numbers show Dalton is more successful more often than most. And again, the year that AJ Green missed essentially half the season, Dalton did just fine on deep throws.

4. I'm not surprised you would pick the stats that support your take. I don't know what Pdub's links really show, though.

5. What stats did I manipulate? 

I never said other QB's aren't getting bailed out, I said not as often as Dalton. AJ is the best wide receiver at adjusting to badly thrown balls. If you don't believe that then you aren't watching the game closely. Provide a stat showing who is the best at adjusting to badly thrown deep balls.  I would bet anything that AJ is the best in the nfl at adjusting to bad balls. 

I have also asserted that AJ gets the most separation on deep balls,  and the more separation means an easier ball to complete.   Do you have a stat to show which receivers get the most separation on deep balls? Of course you don't, so without those details your numbers are not showing enough to prove that your stats are valid. 

That is what is meant by manipulating numbers, without those details the numbers mean very little. 

Pdub provided detailed stats from a site, that analysed very carefully the many factors that I have described. They showed Dalton to be a C level QB on deep balls for his whole career.  Now, if I choose a stats over another one, I will obviously choose one that is more detailed, than a stat which doesn't have much detail like the ones you provided. That isn't biased, it is sound logic. 

Big Ben throws 37% more deep balls than Dalton, which is quite significant and would indicate a QB who throws into much  tighter windows than Dalton, which would diminish his deep throw stats. As far as Brady is concerned , the only fair stat to show would be when he had a receiver comparable to Green in Moss, and that year he put up much better deep ball numbers than Dalton ever has. 

I pulled up his stats on espn and did the calculations.

I did this by adding up his throws over 40 yards and divided by the total years. I did the same for 31 - 40 yards. I also know that Dalton throw approximately three times as many throws between 31 - 40 yards, than over 40 yards.

This gave a QB rating of 90 on throws over 30 yards.Now this isn't far off his career QB rating of 88. So even on using these stats , which are not very detailed, it shows an average deep ball throwing QB.

(04-08-2018, 03:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: 1. I never said other QB's aren't getting bailed out, I said not as often as Dalton.  2. AJ is the best wide receiver at adjusting to badly thrown balls. If you don't believe that then you aren't watching the game closely. Provide a stat showing who is the best at adjusting to badly thrown deep balls.  I would bet anything that AJ is the best in the nfl at adjusting to bad balls. 

3. I have also asserted that AJ gets the most separation on deep balls,  and the more separation means an easier ball to complete.   Do you have a stat to show which receivers get the most separation on deep balls? Of course you don't, so without those details your numbers are not showing enough to prove that your stats are valid. 

4.  That is what is meant by manipulating numbers, without those details the numbers mean very little. 

5.  Pdub provided detailed stats from a site, that analysed very carefully the many factors that I have described. They showed Dalton to be a C level QB on deep balls for his whole career.  Now, if I choose a stats over another one, I will obviously choose one that is more detailed, than a stat which doesn't have much detail like the ones you provided. That isn't biased, it is sound logic. 

6. Big Ben throws 37% more deep balls than Dalton, which is quite significant and would indicate a QB who throws into much  tighter windows than Dalton, which would diminish his deep throw stats. As far as Brady is concerned , the only fair stat to show would be when he had a receiver comparable to Green in Moss, and that year he put up much better deep ball numbers than Dalton ever has. 

1. Again, that's your subjective opinion.

2. See #1. I wish they kept track of deep passes that AJ Green had to make an acrobatic catch that no one else could make. I'd imagine it'd be much less than you think. 

3. of course there's no stat for that. It's a subjective opinion. They don't make stats for opinions.


4. Lol come on man. That's not manipulating anything. The numbers are the numbers. You ask for splits that don't exist and then claim without them, the numbers are "manipulative"? This is silly.

5. Pdub's links showed no such thing. The one link that provided grades based on everything was only for one season, not his entire career. It also did not grade Dalton poorly. It graded him as the 16th ranked QB in the 31-40 range and the 5th ranked QB on 40+ yard throws. It graded him terribly on the 21-30 yard throws. 

This all just verifies the base stats that I listed, which show him to be poor on 21-30 yard throws and good on the really deep stuff. Pdub's other link shows nothing. Feel free to tell me exactly what it shows if you feel I'm incorrect.

6. Where are you getting that Ben has thrown 37% more deep throws? 

(04-08-2018, 04:20 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I pulled up his stats on espn and did the calculations.

I did this by adding up his throws over 40 yards and divided by the total years. I did the same for 31 - 40 yards. I also know that Dalton throw approximately three times as many throws between 31 - 40 yards, than over 40 yards.

This gave a QB rating of 90 on throws over 30 yards.Now this isn't far off his career QB rating of 88.  So even on using these stats , which are not very detailed, it shows an average deep ball throwing QB.

1. Of course Dalton throws more 21-30 yarders than 31+. That would go for any QB.

2. Dalton has a 101.7 rating on throws of 31+ yards since he came into the league. This includes 31-40 yard throws AND 41+ yard throws. You are off somewhere in your calculations. 

Anyone who wants to check can see for themselves: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14012/andy-dalton

By year:

2017: 4-22-201-2-0
2016: 10-21-471-3-0
2015: 7-23-326-2-3
2014: 8-19-413-3-1
2013: 10-27-472-5-1
2012: 5-22-243-2-1
2011: 11-24-473-3-2

Totals: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7 rating)

Now where are you pulling this 90 rating from? 

(04-08-2018, 05:11 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Again, that's your subjective opinion.

2. See #1. I wish they kept track of deep passes that AJ Green had to make an acrobatic catch that no one else could make. I'd imagine it'd be much less than you think. 

3. of course there's no stat for that. It's a subjective opinion. They don't make stats for opinions.


4. Lol come on man. That's not manipulating anything. The numbers are the numbers. You ask for splits that don't exist and then claim without them, the numbers are "manipulative"? This is silly.

5. Pdub's links showed no such thing. The one link that provided grades based on everything was only for one season, not his entire career. It also did not grade Dalton poorly. It graded him as the 16th ranked QB in the 31-40 range and the 5th ranked QB on 40+ yard throws. It graded him terribly on the 21-30 yard throws. 

This all just verifies the base stats that I listed, which show him to be poor on 21-30 yard throws and good on the really deep stuff. Pdub's other link shows nothing. Feel free to tell me exactly what it shows if you feel I'm incorrect.

6. Where are you getting that Ben has thrown 37% more deep throws? 



1. Of course Dalton throws more 21-30 yarders than 31+. That would go for any QB.

2. Dalton has a 101.7 rating on throws of 31+ yards since he came into the league. This includes 31-40 yard throws AND 41+ yard throws. You are off somewhere in your calculations. 

Anyone who wants to check can see for themselves: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14012/andy-dalton

By year:

2017: 4-22-201-2-0
2016: 10-21-471-3-0
2015: 7-23-326-2-3
2014: 8-19-413-3-1
2013: 10-27-472-5-1
2012: 5-22-243-2-1
2011: 11-24-473-3-2

Totals: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7 rating)

Now where are you pulling this 90 rating from? 

(04-08-2018, 05:11 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Again, that's your subjective opinion.

2. See #1. I wish they kept track of deep passes that AJ Green had to make an acrobatic catch that no one else could make. I'd imagine it'd be much less than you think. 

3. of course there's no stat for that. It's a subjective opinion. They don't make stats for opinions.


4. Lol come on man. That's not manipulating anything. The numbers are the numbers. You ask for splits that don't exist and then claim without them, the numbers are "manipulative"? This is silly.

5. Pdub's links showed no such thing. The one link that provided grades based on everything was only for one season, not his entire career. It also did not grade Dalton poorly. It graded him as the 16th ranked QB in the 31-40 range and the 5th ranked QB on 40+ yard throws. It graded him terribly on the 21-30 yard throws. 

This all just verifies the base stats that I listed, which show him to be poor on 21-30 yard throws and good on the really deep stuff. Pdub's other link shows nothing. Feel free to tell me exactly what it shows if you feel I'm incorrect.

6. Where are you getting that Ben has thrown 37% more deep throws? 



1. Of course Dalton throws more 21-30 yarders than 31+. That would go for any QB.

2. Dalton has a 101.7 rating on throws of 31+ yards since he came into the league. This includes 31-40 yard throws AND 41+ yard throws. You are off somewhere in your calculations. 

Anyone who wants to check can see for themselves: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14012/andy-dalton

By year:

2017: 4-22-201-2-0
2016: 10-21-471-3-0
2015: 7-23-326-2-3
2014: 8-19-413-3-1
2013: 10-27-472-5-1
2012: 5-22-243-2-1
2011: 11-24-473-3-2

Totals: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7 rating)

Now where are you pulling this 90 rating from? 

As far as subjectivity, you can argue that all day long if you think green isn't a great deep threat, if not the absolute best deep threat  in the league. I, like most people believe, think green is the best deep threat, and best at making adjustment on deep throws as any wide receiver in the league. I like about 95% of the  league coaches fans and media would say that's a true statement.

How is getting the most separation subjective. You watch every game and watch how much separation is between him and the defensive back whose covering  him. Do it for every deep throw and calculate it. There is nothing subjective about it.

Like I have stated, and continue to state,  comparing Brady without such a deep threat on the team is not a fair comparison. 

I have stated that a fair comparison would be when he had Moss as a deep threat and in that year he rated 92 between 31 - 40 yards and 128 on throws over 40 yards.   He threw 8 TDs and 2 Ints. 

He threw 13 passes between 31 - 40 and 17 passes over 40. This would make his average rating on throws over 30 yards. 13/30 x 92 + 17 /30 X 128 / 2 . This gives him an average rating on throws over 30 yards at 112 .

When I say manipulate the data, it means you do not and still haven provided the details I asked for. You also made a comparison between Dalton and Brady, when Brady didn't have a serious deep threat like Green . This is why I used his deep ball numbers during the year he had Moss as a wide receiver. This  also isn't completely fair, considering Moss was 30 and past his prime, and Green has been in his 20's for the first 7 years of Dalton's career.It's  close enough that a fair evaluation can be made.  

Pdubs link shows a B rating once and C ratings multiple times. That means hes averaged around a C . C + C + C + C + B  which is slightly higher than a C.  The guy doing the analysis makes the statement, that of all the years hes rated Dalton, he only gave him a B once, and every other time he gave him a C

As far as Big Ben throwing 37% more deep throws. Its simple calculations. I took the numbers you gave me. 5.8/4.2 which is 1.37. That means 37% more deep throws. 

The numbers I got are straight from espn.  I corrected some of the calculations because I did them fast. His average for throws 31 - 40 is 94 . His average for throws over 40 is 100. Now he made many more throws between 31 - 40 than over 40.  So his average would be closer to 94 than 100. 

2017


Pass Thrown 31-40 yds    106.0 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 61.8

2016

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 115.3 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     135.4

2015

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  54.7 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     81.9

2014

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 111.9 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     95.8

2013

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  91.5 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     153.3

2012

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 92.0 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     79.2


2011

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  86.6 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     95.8

Another thing to keep in mind, is how accurately the qb rating system ranks a qb on deep throws. I could argue it isn't that accurate at all.

For example, a qb throws a deep ball at his 50 yard line for a TD.

Another throws it at his 40 yard, and the ball is spotted at 10 yard line. A couple plays later that team scores a TD

The first qb gets a much higher rating, even though they both completed a 50 yard throw, simply because his scored a TD and the other QB's throw didn't score a TD.

So the rating system on deep throws is highly dependent not only on accuracy, but where the ball was thrown. A QB shouldn't be penalized because he throws the ball further away from the end zone. That is a bias built into the QB ratings calculation

For example, in 2017 Dalton completed 3 of 16 throws between 31- 40 yards with 2 TD's. He had a QB rating of 106. Now that seems artificially inflated because two throws were within 40 yards of the end zone which scored a TD.

(04-08-2018, 07:44 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Another thing to keep in mind, is how accurately the qb rating system ranks a qb on deep throws. I could argue it isn't that accurate at all.

For example, a qb throws a deep ball at his 50 yard line for a TD.

Another throws it at his 40 yard, and the ball is spotted at 10 yard line. A couple plays later that team scores a TD

The first qb gets a much higher rating, even though they both completed a 50 yard throw, simply because his scored a TD and the other QB's throw didn't score a TD.

So the rating system on deep throws is highly dependent not only on accuracy, but where the ball was thrown. A QB shouldn't be penalized because he throws the ball further away from the end zone. That is a bias built into the QB ratings calculation

For example, in 2017 Dalton completed 3 of 16 throws between 31- 40 yards with 2 TD's. He had a QB rating of 106. Now that seems artificially inflated because two throws were within 40 yards of the end zone which scored a TD.

The guy who completed the long pass for a score deserves the extra ratings points.

Why is this?  Because the guy in your analogy that completed a 50 yd bomb to the 10 yd line, his score isn't guaranteed.  He still has to do more work, in order to achieve the goal.  Plus, that goal isn't guaranteed.  How many times have folks seen a big play that lands in the Red Zone, only to see the drive result in a FG attempt?

Seems pretty simple to me, the long play for TD is obviously worth much more than the long throw that only gets them close.

Wolverine: I enjoyed the little back and forth, but I'm going to bow out of this and give others a chance to speak. I'll just say this: How you arrived at some of your numbers and percentages is all wrong. For example, you don't divide one percentage into another percentage to figure out a percentage.

Ben threw deep on 5.77% of all his attempts. Dalton threw deep on 4.28%. This means Ben threw deep 1.49% more often. Not 37%.

(04-08-2018, 08:41 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Wolverine: I enjoyed the little back and forth, but I'm going to bow out of this and give others a chance to speak. I'll just say this: How you arrived at some of your numbers and percentages is all wrong. For example, you don't divide one percentage into another percentage to figure out a percentage.

Ben threw deep on 5.77% of all his attempts. Dalton threw deep on 4.28%. This means Ben threw deep 1.49% more often. Not 37%.

That is absolutely wrong.  If you throw 5.77 throws per 100 . The other player throws 4.28 out of 100. 5.77/4.28 is 1.348. That means Ben threw 34.8% more deep throws than Dalton

You are simply calculating the difference in percentages.  That is not how much more in percentage Ben threw compared to Dalton. You are 100% wrong. 

(04-08-2018, 08:10 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The guy who completed the long pass for a score deserves the extra ratings points.

Why is this?  Because the guy in your analogy that completed a 50 yd bomb to the 10 yd line, his score isn't guaranteed.  He still has to do more work, in order to achieve the goal.  Plus, that goal isn't guaranteed.  How many times have folks seen a big play that lands in the Red Zone, only to see the drive result in a FG attempt?

Seems pretty simple to me, the long play for TD is obviously worth much more than the long throw that only gets them close.

You're missing the point. The guy who threw from closer to end zone got a huge rating increase compared to the guy who completed the exact same pass,yet didn't score a TD. Whether the other TD scores is probably irrelevant. It's the fact that one throw gets a huge rating boost because it  was thrown from a distance closer to the end zone compared to the other, when both throws were identical. 

In baseball they don't tie batting average and runs batted in into the same stat. That would create a bias towards batters batting 4th in the lineup compared to batters batting 1st , because the clean up hitter would have more opportunity to drive in a run. That is exactly what the nfl qb rating does. It puts a  huge emphasis on where the deep ball was thrown rather just purely the throw itself. 

(04-08-2018, 07:44 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Another thing to keep in mind, is how accurately the qb rating system ranks a qb on deep throws. I could argue it isn't that accurate at all.

For example, a qb throws a deep ball at his 50 yard line for a TD.

Another throws it at his 40 yard, and the ball is spotted at 10 yard line. A couple plays later that team scores a TD

The first qb gets a much higher rating, even though they both completed a 50 yard throw, simply because his scored a TD and the other QB's throw didn't score a TD.

So the rating system on deep throws is highly dependent not only on accuracy, but where the ball was thrown. A QB shouldn't be penalized because he throws the ball further away from the end zone. That is a bias built into the QB ratings calculation

For example, in 2017 Dalton completed 3 of 16 throws between 31- 40 yards with 2 TD's. He had a QB rating of 106. Now that seems artificially inflated because two throws were within 40 yards of the end zone which scored a TD.

It can work the other way also.  A guy can complete a pass that goes for a 40 yard td that would have actually gone for 90 yards if the end zone had not cut it short.  Another guy throws a 40 yards td that would not have gone for more than forty yards because the receiver had to dive for it.  First guy throws a better pass but they get the exact same credit.

Also there are situations where the defense will allow a deep completion as long as it is not a td.  In those cases a QB should get a lot more credit for throwing a td than a pass stopped at the 5 yard line.

(04-09-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You're missing the point. The guy who threw from closer to end zone got a huge rating increase compared to the guy who completed the exact same pass,yet didn't score a TD. Whether the other TD scores is probably irrelevant. It's the fact that one throw gets a huge rating boost because it  was thrown from a distance closer to the end zone compared to the other, when both throws were identical. 

Defenses change when they get close to the goal line.  A defender at the goal loine can camp on a spot because he only has 10 yards behind him while a defender at the twenty has to worry about being able to turn and cover 30 yards behind him.

The closer to the end zone the more compressed the defense gets and the harder it is to complete a pass.

(04-08-2018, 07:44 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: For example, in 2017 Dalton completed 3 of 16 throws between 31- 40 yards with 2 TD's. He had a QB rating of 106. Now that seems artificially inflated because two throws were within 40 yards of the end zone which scored a TD.

But if the end zone had not cut off the yardage the pass plays may have been much longer.  So actually Dalton may have gotten robbed of some yards on the td passes.

(04-08-2018, 03:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Now, if I choose a stats over another one, I will obviously choose one that is more detailed, than a stat which doesn't have much detail like the ones you provided. That isn't biased, it is sound logic. 

It is not sound logic when the stats are subjective and can easily be skewed by personal preference.

That is what leads to people claiming that a CB who played 97% of the snaps for the #5 pass defense and finished in the top 30 in every objective statistical metric (yards per target, completion percentage allowed, success rate, etc) should be ranked 112th behind a bunch of scrubs who barely played.

I like to see as many different stats as possiible, but when they become "subjective" they lose a lot of credibility.

If someone like Pdub was doiung the analysis for these subjective rankings Dalton would be dead last in the leagu instead of middle of the pack.

(04-08-2018, 11:55 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: That is absolutely wrong.  If you throw 5.77 throws per 100 . The other player throws 4.28 out of 100. 5.77/4.28 is 1.348. That means Ben threw 34.8% more deep throws than Dalton

You are simply calculating the difference in percentages.  That is not how much more in percentage Ben threw compared to Dalton. You are 100% wrong. 

However you want to slice that percentage up - it equates to only 7 more deep balls per 500 overall attempts. 7 more deep shots per season, at a less successful rate. Is this supposed to mean Ben is better somehow?

Your logic of "Ben is taking more gambles and Dalton only throws when they're wide open" is ridiculous, frankly. And what does this say of Tom Brady? You conveniently want to leave him out. Andy throws deep more than him, and is much more successful then either him or Ben. You're doing an awful lot of mental gymnastics to explain away the facts.  

So we're basically to believe that Dalton posts better numbers because he's worse, because he's more timid? Or are you saying he's been good 100% due to AJ Green? 

(04-08-2018, 06:36 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: As far as subjectivity, you can argue that all day long if you think green isn't a great deep threat, if not the absolute best deep threat  in the league. I, like most people believe, think green is the best deep threat, and best at making adjustment on deep throws as any wide receiver in the league. I like about 95% of the  league coaches fans and media would say that's a true statement.

How is getting the most separation subjective. You watch every game and watch how much separation is between him and the defensive back whose covering  him. Do it for every deep throw and calculate it. There is nothing subjective about it.

Like I have stated, and continue to state,  comparing Brady without such a deep threat on the team is not a fair comparison. 

I have stated that a fair comparison would be when he had Moss as a deep threat and in that year he rated 92 between 31 - 40 yards and 128 on throws over 40 yards.   He threw 8 TDs and 2 Ints. 

He threw 13 passes between 31 - 40 and 17 passes over 40. This would make his average rating on throws over 30 yards. 13/30 x 92 + 17 /30 X 128 / 2 . This gives him an average rating on throws over 30 yards at 112 .

When I say manipulate the data, it means you do not and still haven provided the details I asked for. You also made a comparison between Dalton and Brady, when Brady didn't have a serious deep threat like Green . This is why I used his deep ball numbers during the year he had Moss as a wide receiver. This  also isn't completely fair, considering Moss was 30 and past his prime, and Green has been in his 20's for the first 7 years of Dalton's career.It's  close enough that a fair evaluation can be made.  

Pdubs link shows a B rating once and C ratings multiple times. That means hes averaged around a C . C + C + C + C + B  which is slightly higher than a C.  The guy doing the analysis makes the statement, that of all the years hes rated Dalton, he only gave him a B once, and every other time he gave him a C

As far as Big Ben throwing 37% more deep throws. Its simple calculations. I took the numbers you gave me. 5.8/4.2 which is 1.37. That means 37% more deep throws. 

The numbers I got are straight from espn.  I corrected some of the calculations because I did them fast. His average for throws 31 - 40 is 94 . His average for throws over 40 is 100. Now he made many more throws between 31 - 40 than over 40.  So his average would be closer to 94 than 100. 

2017


Pass Thrown 31-40 yds    106.0 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 61.8

2016

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 115.3 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     135.4

2015

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  54.7 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     81.9

2014

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 111.9 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     95.8

2013

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  91.5 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     153.3

2012

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 92.0 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     79.2


2011

Pass Thrown 31-40 yds  86.6 
Pass Thrown 41+ yds     95.8

Why would you average those numbers out?

I compiled all the stats and threw them in the QB rating calculator: https://brucey.net/nflab/statistics/qb_rating.html

I think most would say that this is more accurate than averaging his QB ratings. On throws over 31 yards since 2011, Dalton has a 101.7 rating. Not a 94 or 90.

So standing behind the worst Center in football the last four years and the worst overall OL the last two years, with no running game to speak of and receivers who have not been properly coached on breaking back to the pocket when the play breaks down and he is still okay on deep balls? That says good QB!

(04-09-2018, 10:18 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: However you want to slice that percentage up - it equates to only 7 more deep balls per 500 overall attempts. 7 more deep shots per season, at a less successful rate. Is this supposed to mean Ben is better somehow?

Your logic of "Ben is taking more gambles and Dalton only throws when they're wide open" is ridiculous, frankly. And what does this say of Tom Brady? You conveniently want to leave him out. Andy throws deep more than him, and is much more successful then either him or Ben. You're doing an awful lot of mental gymnastics to explain away the facts.  

So we're basically to believe that Dalton posts better numbers because he's worse, because he's more timid? Or are you saying he's been good 100% due to AJ Green? 

I said Dalton picks his spot better and throws less deep balls, not that he only throws when someones wide open. This means he would have a better chance of completing the deep ball ,than someone who throws it deep more often. You thinking Dalton is as good as the elite QB's throwing the deep ball is what's a joke. 

As far as the stats, when their only heaving up such a small number of deep throws, says in the 20 to 30 range, 7 more deep throws is significant.

When it comes to those espn stats, I added up the years and divided them by 7 to get those numbers. That 100 rating looks high simply because, of the 14 ratings used, 7 in the 31- 40 and 7 over 40, only 5 have him higher than 100. Quite frankly, in statistics , you always throw out the high and low in any sample, and average the others. It could be that high of 153 is skewing his ratings. 

When Brady had a similar wide receiver to Dalton in Moss, he put up superior numbers , so he is better at throwing it deep. 

His ratings seem high because 1) Green is a great receiver and one the very best deep threats in the league. He adjusts to a lot of those bad deep throws better than anyone 2) the ratings system is flawed and puts a huge emphasis on where the ball is thrown, that is why he can go 3 for 16 with 2 TD's and they give him a 106 rating. 3) He does pick his spots and throws less deep balls. He throws into larger windows than someone who chucks it downfield a lot more.

(04-09-2018, 09:34 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Defenses change when they get close to the goal line.  A defender at the goal loine can camp on a spot because he only has 10 yards behind him while a defender at the twenty has to worry about being able to turn and cover 30 yards behind him.

The closer to the end zone the more compressed the defense gets and the harder it is to complete a pass.

Not when it's  a deep throw. When they are in the red zone yes, not when its thrown from 40 yards away, the defense isn't going to change at all. 

(04-09-2018, 09:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: But if the end zone had not cut off the yardage the pass plays may have been much longer.  So actually Dalton may have gotten robbed of some yards on the td passes.

If he got robbed of extra it doesn't matter because it only counts over 40, they all count the same as far as the stats are concerned. The extra yards would have minimal impact on the rating, what has a huge impact is the TD .

(04-03-2018, 09:08 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/2/17188798/andy-dalton-is-a-better-deep-ball-passer-than-you-realize

"Again, this post isn’t to paint Dalton as the best deep passer in the NFL, but it does show the criticism he receives is unfair and unwarranted."

He has to be one of the most unfairly treated athletes in this cities history. Guy is better than people think, he has his flaws, but when he has things going right, he can be amongst the best QBs in the league. Granted he is not a guy like Carson Wentz who has the all the attributes (mobility, great arm, etc), but he makes great use of what he has. His biggest area he needs to improve on imo, is not pulling the trigger so quick on giving up on a play and throwing it out of bounds.

That said, Andy Dalton is one of the all time class act athletes this city has ever had. Top notch person. AJ Green and Geno are still my favorite Bengals of my lifetime, and they both have elite skill and are great people on top of it. Even though we haven't had the playoff wins, our roster since 2011 has had some of the most entertaining Bengals I have had the pleasure to watch. Though, I only started watching bengals football around 1990-91ish.