(11-21-2018, 07:43 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well, the first problem is that you just made up the numbers.

And the second problem is with the logic you used.  If I am not mistaken, based on your parameters Marvin has a 40% chance of winning the next playoff game he coaches, correct?

What numbers would you like me to use? What percentage chance would you give for them winning each of those games?

And there’s no lack of logic. It’s just basic statistics/probability in saying that it’s extremely unlikely for Marvin to lose every game....and it’s prob not all just bad luck

(11-21-2018, 03:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have and I doesn't make any difference. When I point out that other teams were favored you claim that doesn't mean anything.

When I point out that the '09 team was garbage after Henry got injured and the '14 team started Rex Burkhead at WR you claim it doesn't mean any thing.

The entire Bengals team could die in a plane crash and you would claim it doesn't matter because "good coaches can win with dead players".

There is no excuse for the loss to the Chargers, and we should have won in '15 also, but just because we lost a couple of playoff games does not mean it is now impossible for use to win one.  Ken Anderson had zero playoff wins in the first ten years of his career.  If you had been a fan back then you would have ran him out of town with a pitchfork because it was IMPOSSIBLE for him to ever win a playoff game.

It's not one excuse or another that I take issue with. It's that you can't reasonably say that 7 teams were good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win a single game. 7 sets of excuses doesn't fly. Especially when the games weren't even close. 

You expect me to believe Chris Henry was the difference between a win and a loss in the Jets game? Chris Henry wasn't even any good in 2009. 12 catches for 236 yards and 2 TD's in 8 games. As for starting Burkhead at receiver, we were also starting Sanu...and the Colts were starting a practice squad RB in Boom Herron. Somehow the Colts were able to get much more out of their 4th string RB (141 yards rushing/receiving + a TD) than we were able to get from anyone...including Jeremy Hill, who had rushed for 1100 yards that year. 

Overall point being that a few injuries didn't break the Colts, so why do we expect a few injuries to break the Bengals?

As to Kenny, he only went 0-2 in the playoffs, not 0-7...and one of those games was a very close 28-31 loss to a Raiders team that won the SB the following year. And when did I ever say it was impossible for Marv to win a playoff game? I would only say it's highly unlikely based on history. Sure, we weren't favored in most of them. The Giants also weren't favored in any of their 4 playoff games on their way to the 2007 championship.

(11-21-2018, 07:48 PM)N_B Wrote: What numbers would you like me to use?  What percentage chance would you give for them winning each of those games?

Use you own numbers.  40% chance of Marvin winning his next playoff game, correct?

(11-21-2018, 07:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It's not one excuse or another that I take issue with. It's that you can't reasonably say that 7 teams were good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win a single game. 7 sets of excuses doesn't fly. Especially when the games weren't even close. 

You expect me to believe Chris Henry was the difference between a win and a loss in the Jets game? Chris Henry wasn't even any good in 2009. 12 catches for 236 yards and 2 TD's in 8 games. As for starting Burkhead at receiver, we were also starting Sanu...and the Colts were starting a practice squad RB in Boom Herron. Somehow the Colts were able to get much more out of their 4th string RB (141 yards rushing/receiving + a TD) than we were able to get from anyone...including Jeremy Hill, who had rushed for 1100 yards that year. 

Overall point being that a few injuries didn't break the Colts, so why do we expect a few injuries to break the Bengals?

As to Kenny, he only went 0-2 in the playoffs, not 0-7...and one of those games was a very close 28-31 loss to a Raiders team that won the SB the following year. And when did I ever say it was impossible for Marv to win a playoff game? I would only say it's highly unlikely based on history. Sure, we weren't favored in most of them. The Giants also weren't favored in any of their 4 playoff games on their way to the 2007 championship.

It all comes back to Marvin's limitations. 

(11-21-2018, 08:06 PM)McC Wrote: It all comes back to Marvin's limitations. 

One of the best 1 PM regular season coaches ever. 

(11-21-2018, 08:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Use you own numbers.  40% chance of Marvin winning his next playoff game, correct?

My point is flying over your head

(11-21-2018, 07:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You expect me to believe Chris Henry was the difference between a win and a loss in the Jets game? Chris Henry wasn't even any good in 2009. 12 catches for 236 yards and 2 TD's in 8 games.

Chris Henry's presence was the key to our passing game.  Without him in the lineup teams rolled double coverage to Chad and shut us down.

Henry was injured in the 8th game of the season. Look at the difference in production.

First 8 games 4 of our opponents were top ten in pass defense and 6 were in top half of the league.  Avg rank was 13
Final 8 games only 1 opponent was top ten in pass defense and only 2 in top half of league.  Avg rank 20

First 8 games we averaged 229 yds passing with 14 tds and a rating of 83.5
Final 8 games we averaged 143 yds passing with 7 tds and a rating of 74.7

Overall our total offense went from #12 over the first 8 games to dead last (#32) over the last 8 games.

So, yes, The difference between the #12 offense to the #32 offense (against weaker defenses) was most likely the difference between a win and a loss in that playoff game.  We ran the Ball very Well with Benson, but our passing attack was non-existent.(18-36, 146 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 58.3 rating)

(11-21-2018, 08:15 PM)N_B Wrote: My point is flying over your head

No it isn't.  You are trying to tell me that we had a 97% chance of winning our last playoff game even though we were a 3 point underdog with our #2 QB starting just because we had lost the previous 6.

And I am pointing out how stupid that argument is.

(11-21-2018, 08:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it isn't.  You are trying to tell me that we had a 97% chance of winning our last playoff game even though we were a 3 point underdog with our #2 QB starting just because we had lost the previous 6.

And I am pointing out how stupid that argument is.

No I’m not! How on earth did you get that from my comment? All I’m saying is that there’s a less than 3% chance of Marvin’s playoff performance actually playing out in real life. Draw from that what you will

Frankly, you’re way too arrogant given your lack of understanding of a pretty basic stats argument

(11-21-2018, 08:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it isn't.  You are trying to tell me that we had a 97% chance of winning our last playoff game even though we were a 3 point underdog with our #2 QB starting just because we had lost the previous 6.

And I am pointing out how stupid that argument is.

Vegas betting odds Fred is a very weak argument. If the Bengals or for that matter any team lost all of the games they were an underdog in you'd be taking a lot of W's off their record.

(11-21-2018, 07:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: .and the Colts were starting a practice squad RB in Boom Herron. Somehow the Colts were able to get much more out of their 4th string RB (141 yards rushing/receiving + a TD) than we were able to get from anyone...including Jeremy Hill, who had rushed for 1100 yards that year. 

Overall point being that a few injuries didn't break the Colts, so why do we expect a few injuries to break the Bengals?

The Colts were the #1 passing offense in the league.  Their running game only ranked 22nd.  Them missing their top RBs was nothing compared to us missing Gresham and Green who accounted for 40% of our receptions and over half of our passing tds.  Plus we were also missing our starting RT (Smith)

(11-21-2018, 08:44 PM)N_B Wrote: No I’m not! How on earth did you get that from my comment?  All I’m saying is that there’s a less than 3% chance of Marvin’s playoff performance actually playing out in real life.  Draw from that what you will

Frankly, you’re way too arrogant given your lack of understanding of a pretty basic stats argument

The probability is 2.8% but it is based on BS logic.

Based on your assumptions Marvin has a 40% chance of winning his next playoff game, correct?

On the radio today, Gary Kubiak is looking to get back into a HC position, he is exactly the kind of guy Mikey would hire.

Mike Norvell from Memphis University is an interesting name. He's still somewhat of an unproven coach (has only been a head coach for 3 years) but he has a 26-12 record and Memphis always has one of the most electrifying offenses in the country. Great recruiter too considering the location. He's very young (37) and shouldn't break Mikey's pockets too much cause he's not Harbaugh or Urban. He will be an up-and-coming coach in the future.

Unfortunately, the Bengals won't think outside of the box and will most likely hire Hue if Marvin steps down.

(11-21-2018, 07:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It's not one excuse or another that I take issue with. It's that you can't reasonably say that 7 teams were good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win a single game. 7 sets of excuses doesn't fly. Especially when the games weren't even close. 

You expect me to believe Chris Henry was the difference between a win and a loss in the Jets game? Chris Henry wasn't even any good in 2009. 12 catches for 236 yards and 2 TD's in 8 games. As for starting Burkhead at receiver, we were also starting Sanu...and the Colts were starting a practice squad RB in Boom Herron. Somehow the Colts were able to get much more out of their 4th string RB (141 yards rushing/receiving + a TD) than we were able to get from anyone...including Jeremy Hill, who had rushed for 1100 yards that year. 

Overall point being that a few injuries didn't break the Colts, so why do we expect a few injuries to break the Bengals?

As to Kenny, he only went 0-2 in the playoffs, not 0-7...and one of those games was a very close 28-31 loss to a Raiders team that won the SB the following year. And when did I ever say it was impossible for Marv to win a playoff game? I would only say it's highly unlikely based on history. Sure, we weren't favored in most of them. The Giants also weren't favored in any of their 4 playoff games on their way to the 2007 championship.

Bingo!

Marv led Bengals teams have consistently been unprepared for what they faced in each of the playoff games. Even against the Steelers, with the game in hand, the team melted down (fumble, followed by two personal fouls) to hand the game over to the Steelers.

There are 7 beautiful examples of them being unprepared for the playoff game. There are 0 examples of a Marv led Bengals playoff game that was well planned and executed.

The pieces you have going into a playoff game are the pieces you have and you game plan accordingly. That's the job of the coaches. Other teams do it.

(11-19-2018, 06:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Marvin has had success despite being handicapped by one of the worst owners in professional sports.  His record is far from great, but it is pretty good considering what he was given to work with.

No argument there but why is it that he can beat good teams, at home and on the road, on Sunday afternoon but fails so miserably on Sunday and Monday night and especially in the playoffs?

How about tommy tuckerville i think his name was, he was the exciting name in cincy a few years ago lol

(11-21-2018, 08:32 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Chris Henry's presence was the key to our passing game.  Without him in the lineup teams rolled double coverage to Chad and shut us down.

Henry was injured in the 8th game of the season. Look at the difference in production.

First 8 games 4 of our opponents were top ten in pass defense and 6 were in top half of the league.  Avg rank was 13
Final 8 games only 1 opponent was top ten in pass defense and only 2 in top half of league.  Avg rank 20

First 8 games we averaged 229 yds passing with 14 tds and a rating of 83.5
Final 8 games we averaged 143 yds passing with 7 tds and a rating of 74.7

Overall our total offense went from #12 over the first 8 games to dead last (#32) over the last 8 games.

So, yes, The difference between the #12 offense to the #32 offense (against weaker defenses) was most likely the difference between a win and a loss in that playoff game.  We ran the Ball very Well with Benson, but our passing attack was non-existent.(18-36, 146 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 58.3 rating)

You should know better than to attempt this stuff with me. 

The first 8 games included that Bears blowout where Palmer threw 5 TD's
The last 8 games included that Jets game where we didn't even try to beat the Jets, and Palmer went 0 for 11

Kinda skews those numbers quite a bit. Chris wasn't a big difference maker in '09. Sorry. When you remove these 2 games from the equation:

First 8 (sans Bears blowout) - 216.7 pass yards - 1.29 pass TD's - 33.7 pass attempts - 117.9 rush yards
Last 8 (sans concession to Jets) - 162.9 pass yards - 1.00 pass TD's - 27.9 pass attempts - 134.9 rush yards

We leaned more on the run over the last 8 games and passed significantly less. Whether or not this was due to Chris Henry is up for debate, but I'd say we passed less as the season progressed due to the failure of Coles and the emergence of Benson. Not because of Chris Henry. It's obvious that the run game was working that year. The pass game wasn't good at any point. 

(11-21-2018, 08:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The Colts were the #1 passing offense in the league.  Their running game only ranked 22nd.  Them missing their top RBs was nothing compared to us missing Gresham and Green who accounted for 40% of our receptions and over half of our passing tds.  Plus we were also missing our starting RT (Smith)

This doesn't explain why a practice squad RB was able to drop 141 yards on us, which is more than any Bengals player in any Marvin playoff game, outside of 2009 Ced Benson. Jeremy Hill had a year (2014) that Boom Herron can only dream of.

Sports Illustrated's list

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/21/nfl-head-coaching-candidates-2019-openings-defelippo-mcdaniels-riley-saban-condoleezza-rice

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/25/hue-jackson-bengals-browns-head-coach-marvin-lewis-afc-north