There's been a lot of discussion on Duke Tobin and the recent draft picks lately and the opinions about who, how, why are sorta all over the place. How good or bad they are and who picked them ?

I'm not getting into who picked them here just my thoughts on the picks as players.

I set up a 5 star system:

5 stars being an excellent player - every game starter who is an impact level player
4 stars being a very good player - above average NFL starter, sees regular playing time and makes plays
3 stars being a solid contributor
2 stars being a role player - very average
1 star being a dud
0 stars being a wasted pick

I focused on the top 3 rounds because for a team that relies nearly solely on the draft you have to hit hoe runs here.

2013: four picks in the top three rounds

1-21 Tyler Eifert - 5 stars - Yes he's been injured/not available for half of his career or better, but I can't blame the Bengals for the pick. He's a game changer if he could stay on the field. In the big picture we've gotten little from him so there's an *

2-5 Gio Bernard - 3 stars - I'm on the fence between 3 and 4 stars here but trying to be totally unbiased I went 3.

2-21 Margus Hunt - 0 stars - wasted pick, BTW he still only has 4 sacks this season.

3-22 Shawn Williams - 3 stars - he's a solid contributor but I don't think he's anything above average

2014: three picks in the top three rounds

1-24 Darqueze Dennard - 3 stars, been injured but can't really say he's above average when on field.

2-23 Jeramy Hill - 1 star - No longer with team had a 8 game run and that's about it.

3-24 Will Clarke - 0 stars - wasted pick.

2015: four picks in the top three rounds

1-21 Cedric Ogbuehi - 0 stars wasted pick, the Jamarcus Russel/Ryan Leaf of 1st round LT's

2-21 Jake Fisher - 1 star - He's thus far been a dud, feel for the guy with heart issues, perhaps a miracle will happen ?

3-21 Tyler Kroft - 2 stars - He flashed last year but thus far overall he's been a role player

3-35 Paul Dawson - 0 stars - wasted pick

2016: three picks in the top three rounds

1-24 William Jackson III - 4 stars - He flashed last season and has contributed some this season. Being a bit generous here hoping he's just in a sophomore slump and suffering from awful coaching.

2-24 Tyler Boyd - 5 stars - a true gem !

3-24 Nick Vigil - 2 stars - He's struggled with some injuries and again bad coaching but I can't really list him higher, yet.

2017: three picks in the top three rounds

1-9 John Ross - 2 stars - Oh boy, can of worms here. Long story short thus far he's not contributed a lot for his draft position. Bad coaching/use is a factor in my mind. He needs to be a hit for sure.

2-16 Joe Mixon - 4 stars - very good player who with a better Oline and coaching could be even higher.

3-9 Jordan Willis - 2 stars - thus far he's been a disappointment overall.

2018: four picks in the top four rounds

It's really hard and a bit unfair to rate these guys already. You can even say that about 2017 picks. So just some thoughts

1-21 Billy Price - Been up and down, mostly down lately. Like Ross we really need him to develop and shine quickly

2-22 Jesse Bates - So far so good, seems like a solid pick

3-13 Sam Hubbard - He's been around the ball a lot and made some plays. I wonder if he would be better already with more playing time ? MJ is still on the field  - A LOT

3-14 Malik Jefferson - Hard to say ? Seems like a bad pick in the making but again - coaching ?

So out of 17 picks in the top three rounds since 2013 (excluding 2018 picks) we have IMHO:

One 5 star pick Tyler Boyd and Another 5 Star pick Tyler Eifert with an asterisk

Two 4 star picks William Jackson and Joe Mixon

Three 3 star picks in Shawn Williams, Darqueze Dennard, and Gio Bernard

So that's 7 quality picks and that's including one who can't stay on the field (Eifert) and it's debatable how deserving Dennard is being listed this high given his draft status ?

On the other end of the spectrum we have some major strikeouts !

Four 0 stars - including Margus Hunt, Will Clarke, Cedric Ogbuehi, and Paul Dawson
Two 1 stars - Jeremy Hill and Jake Fisher
Four 2 stars - Tyler Kroft, John Ross, Jordan Willis, and Nick Vigil

Conclusion: For a team that relies so heavily on the draft our results are poor. We took a giant leap to take Margus Hunt in the 2nd round. We failed miserably with Will Clarke, Cedric Ogbuehi in the first was a colossal mistake, Paul Dawson was a waste. We've drafted exactly one Olineman in the top 3 rounds since the giant FUBAR in 2015.

This is why we are where we are

What say you ?

it all adds up to a franchise that quietly
being passed up the Browns.
if your roster is built on finding elite talent in the draft and using free agency to build depth
then its a big failure.and you have look at who they passed on.

From my general point of view, the 2014 and 2015 drafts are a big part of the reason why this team is floundering right now. I know the ole saying that the draft is a crapshoot, but those two drafts were dreadful. Uzomah and Kroft are the only ones worth their draft status while also on the team from those drafts (both 2015). Then the future offensive tackles from the 2015 draft are both busts, yeah, I would say those are the worst two consecutive drafts in perhaps modern Bengal history.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cin/draft.htm

The question always becomes are players inherently good or are they good because of the scheme/coaching. People do this all the time with Brady, is Brady that good or did the coach/ scheme make him that good. It's easy to say some players didn't pan out but the question is could they have somewhere else. Even if they left here and went somewhere else and didn't work out you still will never know if they could have had there first taste of the NFL been in a different place.

Most guys who get drafted would have been drafted by another teams had we not taken them. The reality is when guys get drafted most teams believe they can have success at some level in the NFL, but it's a matter of fit and other factors. I think what a good GM does is find players and then find a coach that can build a scheme around those players. I think what happens here is we have a coach who is firmly entrenched and so we are stuck finding guys to fit when we could easily have gotten better players and adapted. The old height requirements we had internally for example on DE's is what got us Hunt and Will Clarke, when we deviated off that we end up with Carl Lawson.

I don't put a ton of blame on Tobin because I believe we try so hardly to shoe horn early round picks to fit scheme it has caused us to bust a lot lately. In most places he would have been able to hire the coach he wanted to fit the players he was bringing in rather than having to work the other way. I would point out later round flyers we have done pretty well all things considered, which would align with taking more "non scheme" chances occurs.

(12-06-2018, 02:58 PM)impactplaya Wrote: it all adds up to a franchise that quietly
being passed up the Browns.
if your roster is built on finding elite talent in the draft and using free agency to build depth
then its a big failure.and you have look at who they passed on.

What I want to know is how exactly does a franchise say their team building strategy is through the draft yet employs the smallest scouting department in the league?

Very nice assessment. The only thing I would change is Jeremy Hill from a 1 to a 2 star, although he did have the fumble late in the Pittsburgh playoff game so???

(12-06-2018, 03:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What I want to know is how exactly does a franchise say their team building strategy is through the draft yet employs the smallest scouting department in the league?

Only in Bengal world ! It's like relying on hunting for sustenance and using a straw and spit wads for your weapon.

(12-06-2018, 03:24 PM)Au165 Wrote: The question always becomes are players inherently good or are they good because of the scheme/coaching. People do this all the time with Brady, is Brady that good or did the coach/ scheme make him that good. It's easy to say some players didn't pan out but the question is could they have somewhere else. Even if they left here and went somewhere else and didn't work out you still will never know if they could have had there first taste of the NFL been in a different place.

Most guys who get drafted would have been drafted by another teams had we not taken them. The reality is when guys get drafted most teams believe they can have success at some level in the NFL, but it's a matter of fit and other factors. I think what a good GM does is find players and then find a coach that can build a scheme around those players. I think what happens here is we have a coach who is firmly entrenched and so we are stuck finding guys to fit when we could easily have gotten better players and adapted. The old height requirements we had internally for example on DE's is what got us Hunt and Will Clarke, when we deviated off that we end up with Carl Lawson.

I don't put a ton of blame on Tobin because I believe we try so hardly to shoe horn early round picks to fit scheme it has caused us to bust a lot lately. In most places he would have been able to hire the coach he wanted to fit the players he was bringing in rather than having to work the other way. I would point out later round flyers we have done pretty well all things considered, which would align with taking more "non scheme" chances occurs.

Or could they have at least done better here with better coaching/schemes ? Case in point - John Ross

(12-06-2018, 02:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: There's been a lot of discussion on Duke Tobin and the recent draft picks lately and the opinions about who, how, why are sorta all over the place. How good or bad they are and who picked them ?

I'm not getting into who picked them here just my thoughts on the picks as players.

I set up a 5 star system:

5 stars being an excellent player - every game starter who is an impact level player
4 stars being a very good player - above average NFL starter, sees regular playing time and makes plays
3 stars being a solid contributor
2 stars being a role player - very average
1 star being a dud
0 stars being a wasted pick

I focused on the top 3 rounds because for a team that relies nearly solely on the draft you have to hit hoe runs here.

2013: four picks in the top three rounds

1-21 Tyler Eifert - 5 stars - Yes he's been injured/not available for half of his career or better, but I can't blame the Bengals for the pick. He's a game changer if he could stay on the field. In the big picture we've gotten little from him so there's an *

2-5 Gio Bernard - 4 stars - I'm on the fence between 3 and 4 stars here but trying to be totally unbiased I went 3.

2-21 Margus Hunt - 0 stars - wasted pick, BTW he still only has 4 sacks this season.

3-22 Shawn Williams - 3 stars - he's a solid contributor but I don't think he's anything above average

2014: three picks in the top three rounds

1-24 Darqueze Dennard - 3 stars, been injured but can't really say he's above average when on field.

2-23 Jeramy Hill - 2 star - No longer with team had a 8 game run and that's about it.

3-24 Will Clarke - 0 stars - wasted pick.

2015: four picks in the top three rounds

1-21 Cedric Ogbuehi - 0 stars wasted pick, the Jamarcus Russel/Ryan Leaf of 1st round LT's

2-21 Jake Fisher - 1 star - He's thus far been a dud, feel for the guy with heart issues, perhaps a miracle will happen ?

3-21 Tyler Kroft - 3 stars - He flashed last year but thus far overall he's been a role player

3-35 Paul Dawson - 0 stars - wasted pick

2016: three picks in the top three rounds

1-24 William Jackson III - 4 stars - He flashed last season and has contributed some this season. Being a bit generous here hoping he's just in a sophomore slump and suffering from awful coaching.

2-24 Tyler Boyd - 5 stars - a true gem !

3-24 Nick Vigil - 3 stars - He's struggled with some injuries and again bad coaching but I can't really list him higher, yet.

2017: three picks in the top three rounds

1-9 John Ross - 2 stars - Oh boy, can of worms here. Long story short thus far he's not contributed a lot for his draft position. Bad coaching/use is a factor in my mind. He needs to be a hit for sure.

2-16 Joe Mixon - 5 stars - very good player who with a better Oline and coaching could be even higher.

3-9 Jordan Willis - 2 stars - thus far he's been a disappointment overall.

2018: four picks in the top four rounds

It's really hard and a bit unfair to rate these guys already. You can even say that about 2017 picks. So just some thoughts

1-21 Billy Price - Been up and down, mostly down lately. Like Ross we really need him to develop and shine quickly

2-22 Jesse Bates - So far so good, seems like a solid pick

3-13 Sam Hubbard - He's been around the ball a lot and made some plays. I wonder if he would be better already with more playing time ? MJ is still on the field  - A LOT

3-14 Malik Jefferson - Hard to say ? Seems like a bad pick in the making but again - coaching ?

So out of 17 picks in the top three rounds since 2013 (excluding 2018 picks) we have IMHO:

One 5 star pick Tyler Boyd and Another 5 Star pick Tyler Eifert with an asterisk

Two 4 star picks William Jackson and Joe Mixon

Three 3 star picks in Shawn Williams, Darqueze Dennard, and Gio Bernard

So that's 7 quality picks and that's including one who can't stay on the field (Eifert) and it's debatable how deserving Dennard is being listed this high given his draft status ?

On the other end of the spectrum we have some major strikeouts !

Four 0 stars - including Margus Hunt, Will Clarke, Cedric Ogbuehi, and Paul Dawson
Two 1 stars - Jeremy Hill and Jake Fisher
Four 2 stars - Tyler Kroft, John Ross, Jordan Willis, and Nick Vigil

Conclusion: For a team that relies so heavily on the draft our results are poor. We took a giant leap to take Margus Hunt in the 2nd round. We failed miserably with Will Clarke, Cedric Ogbuehi in the first was a colossal mistake, Paul Dawson was a waste. We've drafted exactly one Olineman in the top 3 rounds since the giant FUBAR in 2015.

This is why we are where we are

What say you ?

The Bold above are the changes I would make.  

(12-06-2018, 03:59 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Or could they have at least done better here with better coaching/schemes ? Case in point - John Ross

What really gets me is it seems the Bengals focus so much on that 4.22 speed and think, "Oh, he'll just burn by everyone on a go route! Do that!"
That doesn't really always work because 1) he can get knocked off or delayed on his route from contact from DBs and/or 2) Dalton isn't the best at hitting a WR in stride on a go route down the sideline. It's a recipe for failure.

Ross is more than just a straight line speed guy. He's very shifty. He needs the ball on short and intermediate routes using the whole field.

(12-06-2018, 05:07 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What really gets me is it seems the Bengals focus so much on that 4.22 speed and think, "Oh, he'll just burn by everyone on a go route! Do that!"
That doesn't really always work because 1) he can get knocked off or delayed on his route from contact from DBs and/or 2) Dalton isn't the best at hitting a WR in stride on a go route down the sideline. It's a recipe for failure.

Ross is more than just a straight line speed guy. He's very shifty. He needs the ball on short and intermediate routes using the whole field.

Exactly Ocho !

They act like if he's not running a go route down the sideline he has to sit the bench. I just about guarantee the Rams, Chiefs, whoever wouldn't use him on just go routes.

(12-06-2018, 04:47 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: The Bold above are the changes I would make.  

I came very close to giving Mixon a 5. Under better coaching with a better line I'm pretty sure he'd be a star !

Dennard should be a 4 star player he is one of th best Nickle Backs in the NFL, Gio is a 4 star borderline 5 when used right, and Iwould also put Williams at a 4 star as well. Jackson and Mixon are 5 stars players as well. Would have Vigil as a 3 Star.

As for the thread I agree drafting has not been where it is needed but the loses in FA particulary Z and Whit hurt this team just as much. Also losing Eifert to injury the last three years has been a killer.

I don't think we can rank Eifert 5 stars. He's had over 445 yards receiving EXACTLY ONCE in his career. That's 3 star production.

Yeah...I'm sure it's largely injuries, but those are that factors in. You could say that Ki-Jana Carter is a HOF RB if injuries don't factor in.

I'd probably list Dennard as 2 stars. He's no a quality starter.

(12-06-2018, 10:57 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Dennard should be a 4 star player he is one of th best Nickle Backs in the NFL, Gio is a 4 star borderline 5  when used right, and Iwould also put Williams at a 4 star as well. Jackson and Mixon are 5 stars players as well. Would have Vigil as a 3  Star.

As for the thread I agree drafting has not been where it is needed but the loses in FA particulary Z and Whit hurt this team just as much. Also losing Eifert to injury the last three years has been a killer.

I guess we're just a team filled with stars. 

BTW...Your 4 star guy Dennard has 75 guys rated higher than him by PFF. I guess they're all 5 star guys! 

And Williams has 66 guys ranked ahead of him!

(12-06-2018, 10:57 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Dennard should be a 4 star player he is one of th best Nickle Backs in the NFL, Gio is a 4 star borderline 5  when used right, and Iwould also put Williams at a 4 star as well. Jackson and Mixon are 5 stars players as well. Would have Vigil as a 3  Star.

As for the thread I agree drafting has not been where it is needed but the loses in FA particulary Z and Whit hurt this team just as much. Also losing Eifert to injury the last three years has been a killer.

Dennard is one you can make a case for just about anywhere.

(12-06-2018, 11:22 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Dennard is one you can make a case for just about anywhere.

Dennard is the greatest 76th ranked CB in the history of the NFL. A truly budding star.

Dare I say, he's on the verge of taking the 75th ranked CB's ranking.

(12-06-2018, 11:07 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I don't think we can rank Eifert 5 stars. He's had over 445 yards receiving EXACTLY ONCE in his career. That's 3 star production.

Yeah...I'm sure it's largely injuries, but those are that factors in. You could say that Ki-Jana Carter is a HOF RB if injuries don't factor in.

I'd probably list Dennard as 2 stars. He's no a quality starter.

Eifert ranked 5 is very generous on actual production for sure. Probably should have ranked him lower.

But suffice is to say we haven't drafted that well. And for a team that sinks or swims totally from it we've had way to many top of the draft misses.

Dennard has managed a lofty 3 career interceptions in 5 years.

This year he has 0 interceptions and has managed a robust 2 passes defensed.

Pro Bowl nod? I think so!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DennDa00.htm

(12-06-2018, 11:26 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Eifert ranked 5 is very generous on actual production for sure. Probably should have ranked him lower.

But suffice is to say we haven't drafted that well. And for a team that sinks or swims totally from it we've had way to any top of the draft misses.

We're living off of the Dalton/Green/Boling draft and the Atkins/Dunlap draft. Other than that, we're mediocre.

And our drafting might not be such a huge thing if we didn't let so many quality free agents leave and fail to replace them with like quality guys.