So I was thinking AJ Green would be a lock for the HOF...then recently I just happened to look at his numbers and I'm not so sure:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeA.00.htm

Mine would likely revolve around his number of Pro Bowl selections and having 1000+ yards receiving in 6 of 7 years.

What is your case for him making the HOF?

I would say he needs 3 or four more high 1000 10 TD seasons in his career to make it. My argument for him now though would be when he plays a 16 game schedule he gives you a 1000 yard and 10 TD performance. Also his best year was cut by injury 2016.

(03-26-2019, 01:23 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: So I was thinking AJ Green would be a lock for the HOF...then recently I just happened to look at his numbers and I'm not so sure:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeA.00.htm

Mine would likely revolve around his number of Pro Bowl selections and having 1000+ yards receiving in 6 of 7 years.

What is your case for him making the HOF?

It's just so hard to tell with the NFL HOF.  Guys not in with better numbers than guys who are.  Lynn Swann in and Isaac Curtis, with better stats all the way across the board, not even a sniff.  Kurt Warner in, Kenny Anderson not.  Is it strictly SB wins?  Is it statistical? Is it public acclaim?  

So, what exactly are the parameters?

(03-26-2019, 01:23 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: So I was thinking AJ Green would be a lock for the HOF...then recently I just happened to look at his numbers and I'm not so sure:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeA.00.htm

Mine would likely revolve around his number of Pro Bowl selections and having 1000+ yards receiving in 6 of 7 years.

What is your case for him making the HOF?

Can we also make case for him not making the HOF or is this an AJ love fest thread?

If so, I would say 1000 yard receiving yards in a 16 game passing league era is a low bar.

I think his injuries have placed him a position where he needs to produce more his last 4 to 6 years and is not close to a lock. Simply, he needs to stay healthy because in my opinion if he does, his numbers will soar.

(03-26-2019, 01:23 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: So I was thinking AJ Green would be a lock for the HOF...then recently I just happened to look at his numbers and I'm not so sure:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeA.00.htm

Mine would likely revolve around his number of Pro Bowl selections and having 1000+ yards receiving in 6 of 7 years.

What is your case for him making the HOF?

In seasons when he's healthy he's never had less than 1,000 yards. He averages about 8 TDs a year. He gets doubled often and still comes down with the ball. He never takes a play off. When healthy he's dominant, CBs rarely get the better of him.  He can blow the top off a defense. He has 33 games with at least 100 yards, he's scored at least 1 TD in 55 games. He's played in 111 games according to pro football reference. So that's a 100 yard game about 30% of the time he plays a game and a TD about 50% of the time he plays a game.

At times he made Andy Dalton look like an above average QB....

I rest my case.

He needs at least 14,000 receiving yards. That's the threshold for modern Wide Receivers. Tbh, there are guys with 15,000 yards (and rings) that are still waiting around. He's over 5,000 yards away at 31 years old. You guys do the math. I know some people like to think he'll be the same guy til he's 35, but that's pretty rare.

Also keep in mind that he's missed significant time in 3 of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he has almost the same exact yardage that Chad did after 8 years. Chad had 8,905 yards and AJ has 8,907 yards. This despite Chad barely playing as a rookie. The difference is that Chad didn't miss games and actually produced better yardage despite the era.

Missing games has really hurt his odds. He's missed a full season's worth of games in the last 5 years. Basically, in order to get 14,000 yards, you have to be posting some huge (1600 yards) type of seasons, have good health, consistency and or longevity.

In short, there is no real HOF case for Green.

(03-26-2019, 01:40 PM)McC Wrote: It's just so hard to tell with the NFL HOF.  Guys not in with better numbers than guys who are.  Lynn Swann in and Isaac Curtis, with better stats all the way across the board, not even a sniff.  Kurt Warner in, Kenny Anderson not.  Is it strictly SB wins?  Is it statistical? Is it public acclaim?  

So, what exactly are the parameters?

I think the game is a lot more friendly to passers and receivers now too.

Look at a guy like Troy Aikman's stats. His numbers would be poor compared to guys today. Troy Aikman only threw over 19 TD's in a season ONCE. 23 is his career high.

(03-26-2019, 01:42 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Can we also make case for him not making the HOF or is this an AJ love fest thread?

If so, I would say 1000 yard receiving yards in a 16 game passing league era is a low bar.

I think his injuries have placed him a position where he needs to produce more his last 4 to 6 years and is not close to a lock. Simply, he needs to stay healthy because in my opinion if he does, his numbers will soar.

Yes. Make either case.

I look at a guy like DeAndre Hopkins who has 2 1500+ yards seasons in 6 years.

1000 yards is kind of a low bar.

(03-26-2019, 01:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: He needs at least 14,000 receiving yards. That's the threshold for modern Wide Receivers. Tbh, there are guys with 15,000 yards (and rings) that are still waiting around. He's over 5,000 yards away at 31 years old. You guys do the math. I know some people like to think he'll be the same guy til he's 35, but that's pretty rare.

Also keep in mind that he's missed significant time in 3 of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he has almost the same exact yardage that Chad did after 8 years. Chad had 8,905 yards and AJ has 8,907 yards. This despite Chad barely playing as a rookie. The difference is that Chad didn't miss games and actually produced better yardage despite the era.

Missing games has really hurt his odds. He's missed a full season's worth of games in the last 5 years. Basically, in order to get 14,000 yards, you have to be posting some huge (1600 yards) type of seasons, have good health, consistency and or longevity.

In short, there is no real HOF case for Green.

He likely won't do that at this stage of his career.

AJ Green will need at least 4000 more yards to even be considered for HOF. Right now, he's 67th all-time receiving yards, 8907 yards. And FWIW, most HOF-worthy WRs played around 13-15 years. Green is at 8. Most HOF-worthy WRs also played a role in their team's playoff victories. Green has not won a single playoff game, which will force him to have to have even better stats.

(03-26-2019, 02:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: AJ Green will need at least 4000 more yards to even be considered for HOF. Right now, he's 67th all-time receiving yards, 8907 yards. And FWIW, most HOF-worthy WRs played around 13-15 years. Green is at 8. Most HOF-worthy WRs also played a role in their team's playoff victories. Green has not won a single playoff game, which will force him to have to have even better stats.

This is more important than any stat.  Being apart of a very successful team and making an impact in NFL history is how you get into the Hall of Fame.

Andy Dalton will likely finish his career with "Hall of Fame numbers" Just like Bruce Arians said about Carson Palmer. But neither has made post season impact. 

Now look at Julian Edelman he doesnt have great regular season numbers but he has a better arguement for Canton than AJ Green being second all time in post season receiving stats behind only Jerry Rice with multiple Super Bowl wins and now a Super Bowl MVP.

While Dalton's numbers may be HOF worth compared to the lesser number of past eras, what hurts him is he was never a Top 5-7 QB in any season except maybe 2015.

As the HOF does require a vote, a guy like Edelman probably makes it easily. The Pats are popular.

The Bengals are basically the Siberia of the NFL when it comes to popularity among the media.

(03-26-2019, 02:44 PM)Synric Wrote: This is more important than any stat.  Being apart of a very successful team and making an impact in NFL history is how you get into the Hall of Fame.

Andy Dalton will likely finish his career with "Hall of Fame numbers" Just like Bruce Arians said about Carson Palmer. But neither has made post season impact. 

Now look at Julian Edelman he doesnt have great regular season numbers but he has a better arguement for Canton than AJ Green being second all time in post season receiving stats behind only Jerry Rice with multiple Super Bowl wins and now a Super Bowl MVP.

That's what I was about to say and I think it only needs to be one or two postseason wins with decent stats and his name will stick in the public's and the HOF voters' minds.

Hopefully, he can get a few seasons with one or more postseason wins and just cement his spot but I think coming up big in a few big games is huge.

The "impact" comment is over played. Barry Sanders had one playoff win, OJ Simpson had no playoff wins. While those are running backs and not WR's the point everyone likes to make about playoff success isn't really true outside of QB's. What will work against him is the era he is playing in with a lot of really good WR's.

It is a tough one to make. He is certainly no lock, the HOF is really, really tough to get into. He needs longevity or a furious, explosive last few years. I’d lean towards the latter. A couple of first team AP selections would be huge. Otherwise, if he can play until he is 38-39 and keep racking up around 1000 yards a season, he’ll have a stronger case but still nothing surefire.

(03-26-2019, 01:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote:  He's over 5,000 yards away at 31 years old. You guys do the math. I know some people like to think he'll be the same guy til he's 35, but that's pretty rare. 

In short, there is no real HOF case for Green.

It is not as rare as you think.  There have been 15 WRs who had over 7000 receiving yards after the age of 30.

And right now Green is 6th all time in NFL history in receiving yards per game.  So if he stays healthy he has a shot.

But WR numbers have been inflated over the last few years, and he has had no postseason success.  So I think it will be a long shot for him to make it.

I think AJ will need 4 or 5 more highly productive years. If he could break 13000 yards maybe 100 tds thatd give him a good shot id think. Comparatively Julio is ahead on yards but behind on tds on what's been a more offensively focused team. Are his chances better than AJs?

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Pro:
By a majority of opinions (Dalton Line) had a average to below average QB throwing to him his entire career, still puts up excellent numbers.

Against:
He's a Bengal
Pass happy era
Often disappears in big games like the rest of the team.

More worthy at this point:
Anderson
Rattler

On the cusp with Green:
Dillon
Johnson

(03-26-2019, 04:53 PM)Atomic Orange Wrote: Pro:
By a majority of opinions (Dalton Line) had a average to below average QB throwing to him his entire career, still puts up excellent numbers.

Against:
He's a Bengal
Pass happy era
Often disappears in big games like the rest of the team.

More worthy at this point:
Anderson
Rattler

On the cusp with Green:
Dillon
Johnson

No Geno Atkins on you list? He'd be the most likely Bengal currently on the roster to make the HoF imo as his numbers compare favorably to his peers during his time.

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