If the Bengals elect to go LB DE or OT in the 1st RD....any chances they try to move up in the 2nd RD in the 30s to get their QB?
Every year 1st RD talent gets pushed down in the 2nd RD.
Tobin has said they wont basically move in the 1st RD..but he never mentioned 2nd RD.
this is a young roster.
I just dont see 3 6th RD picks moving 3 players off this roster.
Just ask John Dorsey what moving up in the 2nd RD can land you.

(04-09-2019, 10:40 AM)impactplaya Wrote: If the Bengals elect to go LB DE or OT in the 1st RD....any chances they try to move up in the 2nd RD in the 30s to get their QB?
Every year 1st RD talent gets pushed down in the 2nd RD.
Tobin has said they wont basically move in the 1st RD..but he never mentioned 2nd RD.
this is a young roster.
I just dont see 3 6th RD picks moving 3 players off this roster.
Just ask John Dorsey what moving up in the 2nd RD can land you.

6th rounders aren't going to net you much movement in the 2nd.  They could possibly use them to move up in the 4th-5th, though.  

They could hang on to them and bring in some competition.  Driskel could use a push.  Fat Randy could use some competition.  Our #4-6 WR's have been complete garbage.  We need a RB with Walton gone.  Nickerson isn't even PS material at LB.  You could draft a developmental C and possibly trade Hopkins to a team that loses their starter if they show promise.

Move up for which QB?

There's a good chance that Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Jones are all gone by the end of the first round.

According to the NFL trade chart, I took our best two 6th round picks in an attempt to move up.

Round 1...we cant even move up one spot
Round 2..we could move from 42 to 39
Round 3..we could move from 72 to 66
Round 4..we could move from 110 to 99
Round 5..we could move from 149 to 116

I guess if you are targeting a player, then you use those to move up. Or if you fear that some other team is going to trade up before us.

I was thinking Daniel Jones would drop.
myself I like Tyree Jackson from Buffalo in RD 3.

Stidham is best QB outside the top 2-3. He will be there in round 3 I would imagine. Jones could go to the Patriots. One never knows because Brady may be playing until he is 48.

The thing about moving up to the top of the second round is that it seems like that's when *everybody* wants to move up to grab whoever it is that slipped out of the first. Not sure the Bengals have it in them to be that aggressive and get it done.

Think of the 6th round picks as lottery tickets. You don't buy more lottery tickets to try and win more than once. Instead you buy more to increase your chances of winning once.

(04-09-2019, 08:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Think of the 6th round picks as lottery tickets.  You don't buy more lottery tickets to try and win more than once.  Instead you buy more to increase your chances of winning once.

That is the exact opposite of the way you should view draft picks. You are drafting a person with a millions of variables. Lottery tickets are more like a 25c toy machine drop in a coin and hope for the best.

(04-09-2019, 08:21 PM)Synric Wrote: That is the exact opposite of the way you should view draft picks. You are drafting a person with a millions of variables. Lottery tickets are more like a 25c toy machine drop in a coin and hope for the best.

Yup! If we don't use some of the extra picks we have to maneuver around in this draft I will be convinced this franchise just dosent give a damn.

Damn NE can enter the draft with 2 picks and come out with 5 starters.

(04-09-2019, 08:21 PM)Synric Wrote: That is the exact opposite of the way you should view draft picks. You are drafting a person with a millions of variables. Lottery tickets are more like a 25c toy machine drop in a coin and hope for the best.

Wrong.  You have to be honest and admit the draft is nothing but a crap shoot in the later rounds.  The numbers prove it.  That is why you will see a team that needs a WR take two or three in the late rounds.  They know they won't all make the roster.  Instead they are just increasing their chances of finding one good one.

(04-09-2019, 08:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Wrong.  You have to be honest and admit the draft is nothing but a crap shoot in the later rounds.  The numbers prove it.  That is why you will see a team that needs a WR take two or three in the late rounds.  They know they won't all make the roster.  Instead they are just increasing their chances of finding one good one.

I think it depends on where you are looking. If they were to use one of those 6th round picks on, say, a kicker (which I think is a possibility), they'd have a pretty decent shot at sticking. I'd try to find specialists in those later rounds - guys who don't have a complete game, but who do one thing very well. Maybe a pure punt returner a guy who can't run routes or outfight coverage but who can just catch a kick and hit the jets.

(04-09-2019, 08:37 PM)TKUHL Wrote: Damn NE can enter the draft with 2 picks and come out with 5 starters.

NE likes to stockpile picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.  Over the last ten years they have had ten extra picks in those rounds (2nd-16 picks, 3rd-14 picks)

This year they have 2 second round picks and 3 thirds.

(04-09-2019, 08:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: NE likes to stockpile picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.  Over the last ten years they have had ten extra picks in those rounds (2nd-16 picks, 3rd-14 picks)

This year they have 2 second round picks and 3 thirds.

Sounds like they will find 5 starters again then.

Is the draft a crap shoot, sure it is. That's why teams pay guys millions of dollars to scout these guys to the best of their abilities. Sure it's still a gamble but to have draft picks to maneuver around in the draft and still watch other teams pick up the players you highly covet most is frustrating. I get both sides, more picks equals more chances of finding a diamond in the rough. Or use some picks to move around and get the guys you are convinced will be starters.

(04-09-2019, 08:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Wrong.  You have to be honest and admit the draft is nothing but a crap shoot in the later rounds.  The numbers prove it.  That is why you will see a team that needs a WR take two or three in the late rounds.  They know they won't all make the roster.  Instead they are just increasing their chances of finding one good one.

The draft is not like a lottery ticket. A lottery ticket is completely random there are no variables.

The draft  is more like betting on the outcome of a sporting event.

You make informed decisions using variables. Height/Weight, Stats, Tape, Level of competition, progress, program/scheme, athletic testing...and none of these includes the human element how hard do they work, how quickly do they learn, are they likeable, are they a leader etc and so forth...

No the draft is nothing like a lottery ticket.

(04-09-2019, 09:37 PM)Synric Wrote: The draft is not like a lottery ticket. A lottery ticket is completely random there are no variables.

The draft  is more like betting on the outcome of a sporting event.

You make informed decisions using variables. Height/Weight, Stats, Tape, Level of competition, progress, program/scheme, athletic testing...and none of these includes the human element how hard do they work, how quickly do they learn, are they likeable, are they a leader etc and so forth...

No the draft is nothing like a lottery ticket.

Damn! Couldn't have said it better. Someone just got served...

I mean I think I get what both of you guys are saying. Synric is completely correct in that obviously teams are doing a lot of research to try to put themselves in the best chance to succeed with those late round picks, and the best teams at drafting are the ones who are best able to analyze those variables to make good decisions. What I think Fred means is that even with that in mind, most of these guys taken in the 6th and 7th round don't pan out anyways, so your odds of hitting on a guy are pretty slim and teams should keep that in mind.

Look at Tom Brady. I always laugh when people in the media talk about the Patriots like they skillfully picked him late and knew what they were getting... nobody is ever going to convince me that was any more than them getting really, really lucky.

(04-10-2019, 01:33 AM)NKURyan Wrote: I mean I think I get what both of you guys are saying. Synric is completely correct in that obviously teams are doing a lot of research to try to put themselves in the best chance to succeed with those late round picks, and the best teams at drafting are the ones who are best able to analyze those variables to make good decisions. What I think Fred means is that even with that in mind, most of these guys taken in the 6th and 7th round don't pan out anyways, so your odds of hitting on a guy are pretty slim and teams should keep that in mind.

Look at Tom Brady. I always laugh when people in the media talk about the Patriots like they skillfully picked him late and knew what they were getting... nobody is ever going to convince me that was any more than them getting really, really lucky.

If they had known what they were getting, there is no way in hell they would have passed on him six times.  He wasn't even their first pick in the 6th.