I think if we look at playoff teams from the last 5 to 7 years,
we can look under a microscope.
A microscope that will show certain individual stats at very key positions.
I dont have every team listed thats made the playoffs over that time period.
but I think have a pretty good memory.

lets start with Dalton.
I think Andy will have to throw between
3,600 to 4,000 yds.
25 TDs and up. no more than 17 INTs

running back wise
Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yds and up
TDs 10 and up.
a combination of another 1,000 between Gio and the younger horses.and 6 to 8 TDs

receiving wise
Im thinking 2-1,000 yd WRs or 1,000 yds combined from WRs #2 and #3. TDs 16 to 20
TEs production between Eifert Uzomah and Sample 600 to 800 yds.TDs could vary between 8 to 12 and up.

oline has to give up less than 25 sacks.

On defense in the 4-3 alignment.
I think its imperative 2 players get 10 plus sacks
in the takeaway department
16 to 20 INTs.
10 and up on the fumble recoveries.

In the kick return game. a combination of 2 to 4 TD
on returns.

Nice thread!

I think the one that stands out is the 16-20 int's. Our Top 3 CB's don't have 16 int's COMBINED in their careers. So we'd need LB's and Safeties to chip in.

I think Mixon could have 1300-1400 yards rushing. Receiving yards for backs is a big stat too. I doubt that Gio and the other backs have 1000 yards combined unless you could receiving too. Gio's numbers have declined over the past 3 years.

Receiving...yeah we should have 1 1000+ yard receivers. I think the question mark there is the #3 receiver.

TE is dependent on Eifert's health.

OLine giving up 25 or less sacks. I don't see that.

2-4 return TD's...I don't see that.

(05-19-2019, 10:08 PM)impactplaya Wrote: I think if we look at playoff teams from the last 5 to 7 years,
we can look under a microscope.
A microscope that will show certain individual stats at very key positions.
I dont have every team listed thats made the playoffs over that time period.
but I think have a pretty good memory.

running back wise
Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yds and up
TDs 10 and up.
a combination of another 1,000 between Gio and the younger horses.and 6 to  8 TDs

This is just flat-out not true.
The Patriots have made the playoffs multiple years without having one RB with 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs.
The Patriots have actually made the postseason multiple years recently without even hitting 1500 rushing yards combined.

A better determination of offense is 6000+ yards and 45+ TDs combined on the air and ground.

(05-20-2019, 11:13 AM)ochocincos Wrote: This is just flat-out not true.
The Patriots have made the playoffs multiple years without having one RB with 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs.
The Patriots have actually made the postseason multiple years recently without even hitting 1500 rushing yards combined.

A better determination of offense is 6000+ yards and 45+ TDs combined on the air and ground.

With Mixon, I think health is the only question mark. IF he's healthy for 16 games, he should eclipse 1400+ yards even with a mediocre line.

(05-20-2019, 11:17 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: With Mixon, I think health is the only question mark. IF he's healthy for 16 games, he should eclipse 1400+ yards even with a mediocre line.

And that's fine, but it's not a requirement. It's more about overall team production in rushing and passing.

(05-20-2019, 11:58 AM)ochocincos Wrote: And that's fine, but it's not a requirement. It's more about overall team production in rushing and passing.

I dont think we can conpare the Bengals to the Pats for obvious reasons.

I think some stats are being looked at under too much of a microscope here. I think a case and point is # of INTS by the defense. Does it have to be an INT or can it just be a turnover? Does it have to be an INT or can it be the defense holding the opposing offense to a 3 and out? The end means is the same it is just a different avenue of getting there.

(05-20-2019, 12:32 PM)impactplaya Wrote: I dont think we can conpare the Bengals to the Pats for obvious reasons.

In this instance, you can. Find the commonality in your statement of "Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yards and up. 10 TDs and up," and what I stated that the Patriots do. It's about total team production.

Look at the total rushing and total offense for playoff teams:
BAL - 2441 ruYd, 5999 total yards
NE - 2037 ruYd, 6295 total yards
IND - 1718 ruYd, 6179 total yards
HOU - 2021 ruYd, 5802 total yards
KC - 1855 ruYd, 6810 total yards
LAC - 1873 ruYd, 5962 total yards

DAL - 1963 ruYd, 5501 total yards
PHI - 1570 ruYd, 5845 total yards
LAR - 2231 ruYd, 6738 total yards
SEA - 2560 ruYd, 5653 total yards
CHI - 1938 ruYd, 5502 total yards
NO - 2025 ruYd, 6067 total yards

All playoff teams had 1500+ rushing yards and 5500+ total yards.
So actually my prediction of 6000+ yards was actually too high overall, but probably necessary if you still want to make the playoffs with a bad defense.

The TEAM production is a far better indicator than individual because some teams are structured differently. However, all the playoff teams had certain team production metrics that they hit.

I think with Mixon being the focal point of the offense he should exceed last years numbers easily

(05-20-2019, 12:51 PM)ochocincos Wrote: In this instance, you can. Find the commonality in your statement of "Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yards and up. 10 TDs and up," and what I stated that the Patriots do. It's about total team production.

Look at the total rushing and total offense for playoff teams:
BAL - 2441 ruYd, 5999 total yards
NE - 2037 ruYd, 6295 total yards
IND - 1718 ruYd, 6179 total yards
HOU - 2021 ruYd, 5802 total yards
KC - 1855 ruYd, 6810 total yards
LAC - 1873 ruYd, 5962 total yards

DAL - 1963 ruYd, 5501 total yards
PHI - 1570 ruYd, 5845 total yards
LAR - 2231 ruYd, 6738 total yards
SEA - 2560 ruYd, 5653 total yards
CHI - 1938 ruYd, 5502 total yards
NO - 2025 ruYd, 6067 total yards

All playoff teams had 1500+ rushing yards and 5500+ total yards.
So actually my prediction of 6000+ yards was actually too high overall, but probably necessary if you still want to make the playoffs with a bad defense.

The TEAM production is a far better indicator than individual because some teams are structured differently. However, all the playoff teams had certain team production metrics that they hit.

True, but then you have to assign who you think will get you to those marks. Where are you assigning those production benchmark numbers? I'm not sure I'm counting on AD getting over 4k yards (done it twice in his career), but I probably could count on him making the mark for TDs and turnovers. So you probably do need a Mixon running for 1,200+ yards for us to get closer to the 6k yard mark. 

(05-19-2019, 10:08 PM)impactplaya Wrote: I think if we look at playoff teams from the last 5 to 7 years,
we can look under a microscope.
A microscope that will show certain individual stats at very key positions.
I dont have every team listed thats made the playoffs over that time period.
but I think have a pretty good memory.

lets start with Dalton.
I think Andy will have to throw between
3,600 to 4,000 yds.
25 TDs and up. no more than 17 INTs

running back wise
Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yds and up
TDs 10 and up.
a combination of another 1,000 between Gio and the younger horses.and 6 to 8 TDs

receiving wise
Im thinking 2-1,000 yd WRs or 1,000 yds combined from WRs #2 and #3. TDs 16 to 20
TEs production between Eifert Uzomah and Sample 600 to 800 yds.TDs could vary between 8 to 12 and up.

oline has to give up less than 25 sacks.

On defense in the 4-3 alignment.
I think its imperative 2 players get 10 plus sacks
in the takeaway department
16 to 20 INTs.
10 and up on the fumble recoveries.

In the kick return game. a combination of 2 to 4 TD
on returns.

I think all of this is possible too, but the Defense definately needs to hold onto those interceptions, that is for sure. I think the turnover ratio is the one stat that is up in the air and we will see if this changes for us this year. Dropped way too many interceptions last year and didn't get enough fumbles recovered.

(05-20-2019, 12:34 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I think some stats are being looked at under too much of a microscope here. I think a case and point is # of INTS by the defense. Does it have to be an INT or can it just be a turnover? Does it have to be an INT or can it be the defense holding the opposing offense to a 3 and out? The end means is the same it is just a different avenue of getting there.

Yeah, have to be like ten times better stopping Offenses on 3rd downs this season...

Maybe with new coaches these number will all change.. Hopefully for the better, but that's yet to be determined..

(05-20-2019, 01:14 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: True, but then you have to assign who you think will get you to those marks. Where are you assigning those production benchmark numbers? I'm not sure I'm counting on AD getting over 4k yards (done it twice in his career), but I probably could count on him making the mark for TDs and turnovers. So you probably do need a Mixon running for 1,200+ yards for us to get closer to the 6k yard mark. 

Mixon only has to get 1200+ yards if it's a workhorse approach. We don't know for sure that it will be. It could be a blend of 2-3 RBs.

(05-20-2019, 01:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Mixon only has to get 1200+ yards if it's a workhorse approach. We don't know for sure that it will be. It could be a blend of 2-3 RBs.

I would rather it be a rotation, i don't want us to wear Mixon out like the Rams did Gurley...

Think Zac would feel the same.

(05-20-2019, 01:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Mixon only has to get 1200+ yards if it's a workhorse approach. We don't know for sure that it will be. It could be a blend of 2-3 RBs.

Very true. He'd need to get around 18-22 carries average per game (16.9 last year), which is what Gurley had (18.3), and both had 4.9 YPC so I think it's doable with a marginal increase in carries and improved line/scheme

I would much prefer Mixon not having a 1300-1400 yard season. He’s obviously talented enough to do so but running back is a strength on offense. Run it as a committee, get Gio and Williams/Anderson involved.

(05-20-2019, 02:19 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I would much prefer Mixon not having a 1300-1400 yard season. He’s obviously talented enough to do so but running back is a strength on offense. Run it as a committee, get Gio and Williams/Anderson involved.

Really excited to see these new backs, especially Traveon. Special talent that can take it the distance on any play.

(05-20-2019, 12:51 PM)ochocincos Wrote: In this instance, you can. Find the commonality in your statement of "Mixon will have to achieve 1200 yards and up. 10 TDs and up," and what I stated that the Patriots do. It's about total team production.

Look at the total rushing and total offense for playoff teams:
BAL - 2441 ruYd, 5999 total yards
NE - 2037 ruYd, 6295 total yards
IND - 1718 ruYd, 6179 total yards
HOU - 2021 ruYd, 5802 total yards
KC - 1855 ruYd, 6810 total yards
LAC - 1873 ruYd, 5962 total yards

DAL - 1963 ruYd, 5501 total yards
PHI - 1570 ruYd, 5845 total yards
LAR - 2231 ruYd, 6738 total yards
SEA - 2560 ruYd, 5653 total yards
CHI - 1938 ruYd, 5502 total yards
NO - 2025 ruYd, 6067 total yards

All playoff teams had 1500+ rushing yards and 5500+ total yards.
So actually my prediction of 6000+ yards was actually too high overall, but probably necessary if you still want to make the playoffs with a bad defense.

The TEAM production is a far better indicator than individual because some teams are structured differently. However, all the playoff teams had certain team production metrics that they hit.

I think this is the biggest indicator. 

Last season we totaled 4972 yards. If you look at the top 10 offenses last season... those team's averaged 370 yards per game (Bengals 310). Looking at these teams again we see that the pass-yards to run-yards was 2.44. That was 2.44 yards passed for every 1 rush yard (Bengals 1.96).  What I am getting from this is our passing was sub par. And I think we all agree that we had some OL issues which gave AD very little time in the pocket over all.

When we look at AJ and Boyd, they pulled down 1722 yards total.  AJ was injured at the end and so was AD. However I don't think both recievers getting 1,000 yards is beyond reasonable. I know AJ is getting older and he doesn't always fight for yards anymore. But he is still a solid #1. The bigger issue is who is the #3? Eifert > Ross?  We have big issues after the AJ/ Boyd combo.  Having a #3 would make this analysis a lot easier.  I really want to see a big season from Ross, Eifert, and Sample. Maybe Tate if he can make the field.

As for our rushing game... Mixon. I really like Gio. But it seems that our play callers have never put Gio forward. I usually see him on 3rd and long on a predictable screen. No feces, we all see it coming. Or you see Gio get a run up the middle or pass block. I think we need to see Gio be used more offensively/ aggressively. Play more to his strengths rather than use him as simply a #2 back.

As for Red Zone %... TEs. Eifert kills in the endzone. Let's all hope Sample can too.

And if defense wins championships we need more turnovers. The top 10 teams averaged 28.5 (Bengals 18). The lowest +/- was +7 (Bengals +1). The biggest area you notice is our fumble recoveries where the top end of the NFL gets double digits while we ranked 25th with 6.


Now we got some new linebackers, kept our starting CBs and added Webb... and our DL is healthy again. Let's all hope with more pressure, a more present LB corps... we can force more 3rd downs or force some bad plays. Our secondary didn't seem to be an issue last season.

(05-20-2019, 02:58 PM)PAjwPhilly Wrote: I think this is the biggest indicator. 

Last season we totaled 4972 yards. If you look at the top 10 offenses last season... those team's averaged 370 yards per game (Bengals 310). Looking at these teams again we see that the pass-yards to run-yards was 2.44. That was 2.44 yards passed for every 1 rush yard (Bengals 1.96).  What I am getting from this is our passing was sub par. And I think we all agree that we had some OL issues which gave AD very little time in the pocket over all.

When we look at AJ and Boyd, they pulled down 1722 yards total.  AJ was injured at the end and so was AD. However I don't think both recievers getting 1,000 yards is beyond reasonable. I know AJ is getting older and he doesn't always fight for yards anymore. But he is still a solid #1. The bigger issue is who is the #3? Eifert > Ross?  We have big issues after the AJ/ Boyd combo.  Having a #3 would make this analysis a lot easier.  I really want to see a big season from Ross, Eifert, and Sample. Maybe Tate if he can make the field.

As for our rushing game... Mixon. I really like Gio. But it seems that our play callers have never put Gio forward. I usually see him on 3rd and long on a predictable screen. No feces, we all see it coming. Or you see Gio get a run up the middle or pass block. I think we need to see Gio be used more offensively/ aggressively. Play more to his strengths rather than use him as simply a #2 back.

As for Red Zone %... TEs. Eifert kills in the endzone. Let's all hope Sample can too.

And if defense wins championships we need more turnovers. The top 10 teams averaged 28.5 (Bengals 18). The lowest +/- was +7 (Bengals +1). The biggest area you notice is our fumble recoveries where the top end of the NFL gets double digits while we ranked 25th with 6.


Now we got some new linebackers, kept our starting CBs and added Webb... and our DL is healthy again. Let's all hope with more pressure, a more present LB corps... we can force more 3rd downs or force some bad plays. Our secondary didn't seem to be an issue last season.

Great post man, you did some work on this one, reps.