As we are looking at Vegas odds on receptions, yards and TDs - I would be interested in your thoughts on the cause and steps to correct the following:

In 2017 Bengals were the worst Team in the league (32nd) in number of offensive plays, per game.
In 2017 Bengals were the worst Team (32nd) in the number of opponent offensive plays against them, per game. 
In 2018 Bengals were third worst Team (30th) in number of offensive plays, per game.
In 2018 Bengals were third worst Team (30th) in the number of opponent offensive plays against them, per game.

On the other hand, Teams like NE, Rams, Steelers and Ravens were in top-5 in terms of offensive plays per game.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game

So your thoughts on why and how to correct this (scheme both offensively and defensively, as well as specific player/play utilization)?

 

 

We need to execute better on 3rd down. This seems obvious, but it truly is the key to increasing the # of offensive plays. Secondarily, we need to win the turnover battle. This also increases offensive plays. I think Zac really wants to improve our running game. I think that helps in this area. A good running game will open up the play action. A poor running game and the defense will stop you more often on 3rd down as you will be (as Lap often says) 'off schedule'.

All we need to do on offense is improve our passing game and run the ball better.

On defense we just need to stop the run more consistently and play better pass defense.

Here are our rankings for '17 and '18 combined.

Passing offense...27th yards...20th efficiency rating
Rush offense.......29th yards...24th yards per carry
Total offense........31st yards...28th yards per play

Pass defense.......23rd yards...19th efficiency rating
Rush defense......32nd yards...24th yards per carry
Total defense......30th yards...18th in yards per play

Oh, and there is also this

Bengals 3rd down conversion percentage.......26th
Opponents 3rd down conversion percentage...32nd

(06-23-2019, 08:06 PM)EatonFan Wrote: We need to execute better on 3rd down. This seems obvious, but it truly is the key to increasing the # of offensive plays. Secondarily, we need to win the turnover battle. This also increases offensive plays. I think Zac really wants to improve our running game. I think that helps in this area. A good running game will open up the play action. A poor running game and the defense will stop you more often on 3rd down as you will be (as Lap often says) 'off schedule'.

Good points.

(06-23-2019, 08:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All we need to do on offense is improve our passing game and run the ball better.

On defense we just need to stop the run more consistently and play better pass defense.

Fred, you are the stats guy on this board. How do we compare to Rams in terms of turnovers?

The ran about 130 more plays than us.

The interesting Team is KC. They were near the bottom in terms of number of plays against them.

(06-23-2019, 08:26 PM)XsandOs Wrote: Fred, you are the stats guy on this board. How do we compare to Rams in terms of turnovers?

The ran about 130 more plays than us.

The interesting Team is KC. They were near the bottom in terms of number of plays against them.

The ONLY good thing our offense did was hold onto the ball.  We only had 17 turnovers last year.  Only 4 teams had fewer.  Rams had 19 (tied for 11th fewest)

However the Rams forced 30 turnovers (3rd) while we only got 18 (21st).

We had a positive 1 turnover margin, so that was not the reason we ran so few plays and our opponents ran so many.  We just stunk at getting first downs or stopping other teams. 

On offense over the last 3 seasons we've ran (overall) a pretty vanilla offense. Teams, even ones outside our division knew way to much about our tendencies, what we were going to do and when we were going to do it. What formations we ran what out of and so on. Add in a mostly bad at run blocking O line and teams disregarded our running game. It's like a MLB pitcher that only has one pitch, he's gonna get drilled !

We have to get more versatile, more unpredictable, and run the ball better. Being able to convert on 3rd and four on the ground opens up the play action and so much else. We have to get better at using our weapons, letting them do what they do well.

Over the last couple seasons on defense we've been one of the worst teams in the NFL getting off the field on 3rd down. The first half of last season we gave up a ton of 3rd and 7 plus it was just nuts, we gave up several 3rd and super long - 10+ One of the bigger reasons we've been the NFL 3rd down door mats has been our LBer play, inability to cover anybody ! Other teams have known it and exploited it. Overall we've played very soft on D. You can't have your defense put on a tutu for the entire game ! Very little stunting, very little blitzing, again very vanilla. A defense has to mix it up as well and take some chances.

(06-23-2019, 08:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The ONLY good thing our offense did was hold onto the ball.  We only had 17 turnovers last year.  Only 4 teams had fewer.  Rams had 19 (tied for 11th fewest)

However the Rams forced 30 turnovers (3rd) while we only got 18 (21st).

We had a positive 1 turnover margin, so that was not the reason we ran so few plays and our opponents ran so many.  We just stunk at getting first downs or stopping other teams. 

Thanks Fred.

I agree that defense plays a big part in it. Rams, Ravens and NE being in the top 5 of plays run....

(06-23-2019, 09:06 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: On offense over the last 3 seasons we've ran (overall) a pretty vanilla offense. Teams, even ones outside our division knew way to much about our tendencies, what we were going to do and when we were going to do it. What formations we ran what out of and so on. Add in a mostly bad at run blocking O line and teams disregarded our running game. It's like a MLB pitcher that only has one pitch, he's gonna get drilled !

We have to get more versatile, more unpredictable, and run the ball better. Being able to convert on 3rd and four on the ground opens up the play action and so much else. We have to get better at using our weapons, letting them do what they do well.

Over the last couple seasons on defense we've been one of the worst teams in the NFL getting off the field on 3rd down. The first half of last season we gave up a ton of 3rd and 7 plus it was just nuts, we gave up several 3rd and super long - 10+ One of the bigger reasons we've been the NFL 3rd down door mats has been our LBer play, inability to cover anybody ! Other teams have known it and exploited it. Overall we've played very soft on D. You can't have your defense put on a tutu for the entire game ! Very little stunting, very little blitzing, again very vanilla. A defense has to mix it up as well and take some chances.

Makes sense.

I would like to see a power run, clock controlling offense.

First things first, thanks Fred for pointing me to Pro Football Reference; it let me do a lot of detailed breakdowns of last year. Here are some to chew on...

On third down we AVERAGED 7.87 yards to go - 24% of the time it was 11+ yards to go.

On second down we AVERAGED 8 yards to go - and only 35% of the time we were in 2nd and 6 or fewer yards to go.

This indicates that the offense was not winning first or second down so third down was starting out in low probability territory.

As far as run/pass balance, we were a pretty balanced 52.8% pass on first down. Second down it zoomed to 62.5% pass and on third down it was 80% pass (which makes sense when the AVERAGE is 3rd and 8).

And some more interesting things to look at, namely what were our tendencies in those rare times we had third and manageable (4 yards or less):

3rd and 1: 73.7% rush. Okay that seems reasonable.

3rd and 2: 29.4% rush....interesting

3rd and 3: 25% rush....see a pattern?

3rd and 4: 20% rush...this actually sort of makes sense as 4+ is typically where most offenses start saying "passing down".

If anyone still wonders why ZT and Callahan have focused on blocking in the offseason this is why. It tells a story of an offensive line that did not win at the line of scrimmage and that the prior coaches seemed not to trust to be able to consistently do so.

(06-23-2019, 11:36 PM)Joelist Wrote: First things first, thanks Fred for pointing me to Pro Football Reference; it let me do a lot of detailed breakdowns of last year. Here are some to chew on...

On third down we AVERAGED 7.87 yards to go - 24% of the time it was 11+ yards to go.

On second down we AVERAGED 8 yards to go - and only 35% of the time we were in 2nd and 6 or fewer yards to go.

This indicates that the offense was not winning first or second down so third down was starting out in low probability territory.

As far as run/pass balance, we were a pretty balanced 52.8% pass on first down. Second down it zoomed to 62.5% pass and on third down it was 80% pass (which makes sense when the AVERAGE is 3rd and 8).

And some more interesting things to look at, namely what were our tendencies in those rare times we had third and manageable (4 yards or less):

3rd and 1: 73.7% rush. Okay that seems reasonable.

3rd and 2: 29.4% rush....interesting

3rd and 3: 25% rush....see a pattern?

3rd and 4: 20% rush...this actually sort of makes sense as 4+ is typically where most offenses start saying "passing down".

If anyone still wonders why ZT and Callahan have focused on blocking in the offseason this is why. It tells a story of an offensive line that did not win at the line of scrimmage and that the prior coaches seemed not to trust to be able to consistently do so.

Good post. Thank you.

If your offensive line isn't three yards in beyond the line of scrimmage after the snap on a run play, you have problems that no scheme can fix.

I started this thread because I was reading the Vegas betting lines and just wanted us to start thinking about the simple, but important stat that speak to the prevalent problem.

It's no surprise that the SB contenders in 2018 had great OL play.

KC is that outlier. Fools gold that skews stats. But even they have been a historically OL driven Team.

Great thread with great responses. The stats on 3rd & 2 and 3rd and 3 are ridiculous. Our execution on 3rd down on both sides of the ball were horrible as well.

I want to see this offense keep defenses off balance.
make the LBers overthink everything.
its funny how our LBers got exposed last year
underneath.
biting on play fakes misdirections etc
yet Lazor and Lewis were too dumb to apply the same
mindset to teams were playing.
I want to see Ross used as a weapon instead of a decoy
I want to see this offense dictate the tempo of a game.
which was a rarity last year.
this offense last year was designed in 2018 not to lose instead
of trying to win.
I think ZT and his progressive thinking will be the X factor
in the offense this year

(06-24-2019, 07:26 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Great thread with great responses. The stats on 3rd & 2 and 3rd and 3 are ridiculous. Our execution on 3rd down on both sides of the ball were horrible as well.

Agreed Harley.

And it's no surprise that we were next to last (31st) in time of possession last year.

(06-24-2019, 10:19 AM)impactplaya Wrote: I want to see this offense keep defenses off balance.
make the LBers overthink everything.
its funny how our LBers got exposed last year
underneath.
biting on play fakes misdirections etc
yet Lazor and Lewis were too dumb to apply the same
mindset to teams were playing.
I want to see Ross used as a weapon instead of a decoy
I want to see this offense dictate the tempo of a game.
which was a rarity last year.
this offense last year was designed in 2018 not to lose instead
of trying to win.
I think ZT and his progressive thinking will be the X factor
in the offense this year

Thank you.

I hope our OL plays well enough to allow Taylor to unleash a game changer.

The last Bengal coach who did that was Wyche with no huddle.

it would also help the offense if the defense and special teams could create more short fields.
more explosive returns from Erickson or whoever would be welcome.

(06-24-2019, 07:26 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Great thread with great responses. The stats on 3rd & 2 and 3rd and 3 are ridiculous. Our execution on 3rd down on both sides of the ball were horrible as well.

What most of us seem to forget is that the game of football is, from a broad perspective, quite simple.

On offense ... you need to convert 3rd downs so that the other team doesn't get the ball back. That means that your offense needs to stay "on schedule" (as Lap puts it) or "ahead of the chains" as most game analysts put it. 1st and 10 ... get at least 4-5 yards; 2nd and 4-to-5 ... get at least 3 yards. Convert the 3rd-and-short. Lather, rinse, repeat. If the offense is consistantly in 3rd and 7+, they won't easily convert that 3rd down.

On defense ... you need to keep the other offense from converting 3rd downs. But most importantly, you need to stop them from converting 3rd-and-long. How many times over the past 3 years have we seen the opposing offense in 3rd-and-long and they convert? I have often commented to the wife that putting the Bengals defense in 3rd-and-long is the the same as putting the Bengals defense in 3rd-and-short.

How an offense obtains the 1st down or how the defense stops a 3rd down is of less importance that actually doing so.

i know this was foriegn to Lazor Zamp and Lewis
but a high % pass on 1st and completed opens up the whole playbook.
a slant...rub route..swing to the RB......pivot route to the TE.

(06-23-2019, 10:36 PM)XsandOs Wrote: Makes sense.

I would like to see a power run, clock controlling offense.

Without our offensive line playing lights out,we are going to suck again.And with Johan Williams possibly out for the season,who knows,we are going to struggle.Glenn cannot handle super fast d-ends and he is going to get andy killed.I see us winning maybe 8 games,as good teams will figure you out by 3 games in unless ZT really keeps it real and outcoaches coaches.I am not convinced we are a playoff team.I hope players still say positive about this staff,we shall see.I am one to say SHOW ME,DON'T TELL ME.I want wins not lip service.Injuries always play a big part and for whatever season this franchise is always HURT. :paul:

(06-24-2019, 12:12 PM)fortyyearfan Wrote: Without our offensive line playing lights out,we are going to suck again.And with Johan Williams possibly out for the season,who knows,we are going to struggle.Glenn cannot handle super fast d-ends and he is going to get andy killed.I see us winning maybe 8 games,as good teams will figure you out by 3 games in unless ZT really keeps it real and outcoaches coaches.I am not convinced we are a playoff team.I hope players still say positive about this staff,we shall see.I am one to say SHOW ME,DON'T TELL ME.I want wins not lip service.Injuries always play a big part and for whatever season this franchise is always HURT. :paul:

Let's hope for the best.