Home run numbers are not just up. They are WAY up. The league is on pace for over 6,660 home runs. That will break the single season record by over 560 home runs.

Lots of people are claiming it is just a batting technique of hitting up on the ball to increase the launch angle, but guys have been trying to hit more home runs forever. I don't believe everyone just figured it out at one time. I do understand that there has been a change in batting style because you can also see a huge increase in strikeouts, but I don't think it accounts for all the home runs.

22 players are on pace to hit at least 40 HR this year. Approximately 60 players are on pace to hit 30 homers. That is just crazy.

The ball must be either harder or have less friction. I guess the question is "Does it need to be fixed?" Do fans actually like this many more home runs?

(07-15-2019, 03:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Home run numbers are not just up.  They are WAY up.  The league is on pace for over 6,660 home runs.  That will break the single season record by over 560 home runs.

Lots of people are claiming it is just a batting technique of hitting up on the ball to increase the launch angle, but guys have been trying to hit more home runs forever.  I don't believe everyone just figured it out at one time.  I do understand that there has been a change in batting style because you can also see a huge increase in strikeouts, but I don't think it accounts for all the home runs.

22 players are on pace to hit at least 40 HR this year.  Approximately 60 players are on pace to hit 30 homers.  That is just crazy.

The ball must be either harder or have less friction.  I guess the question is "Does it need to be fixed?"  Do fans actually like this many more home runs?

I thought this issue was brought up before during the alleged steroid era.  I do not know what to think of this.  

Athletes are stronger and hitting mechanics are now a refine science with video review, they teach athletes to "launch" swing.  Hell, Voto has a pre-batting mechanic i think that helps him launch the ball.  

Also, historically speaking, baseball fields are somewhat hitter friendly in some parks.  GABP is an example, which taking into account the Red's Top 4 ERA is quite amazing.  

I have not ruled out the use of Growth Hormone in some athletes.  There are no tests that can adequately identify if an athlete is on GH because the half-life is so short.  

It could be changes in the ball.  I just do not know.  I think it is more exciting for some fans to see hits than a low scoring game.  But I do not buy into the conspiracy quite yet about the ball changes.  I will say that baseballs are handmade and there might be some variations but I just cannot accept there is a conspiracy to make the balls "juiced" to gather interest in the game.  

It is odd, nevertheless, that the balls travel farther  with greater velocity.  

I see that I left out the most interesting stat.  MLB is on pace to hit over ONE THOUSAND more home runs this year (6663) than last year (5585).  That is almost a 20% increase in just one year.  There is no way in hell hitters got that much better in just one season.

As a fan I like home runs.  If nothing else had changed then all the home runs would not be that bad.  But we have so many more walks and strikeouts and lower batting averages that there are way fewer balls hit "in play".  And when they do get on base they never try to steal.  Games have turned into Home Run Derby contests with no defense or bas running.  Just a batter and a pitcher with everyone else standing around watching.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hihr6.shtml

Looking over the data base since 1901, home runs have increased steadily.  Take into account in 1961 MLB went from 154 games to 162.  The stats are amazing really.

From 1987 to 1988 home runs dropped by 1300.  I would think the steroid era began in 1993 but could have occurred much earlier by some in mid 1980s.  I know this to be a fact when Barry Bonds questioned me while I lived near Temecula California and he would fly in to visit family.  I was actually somewhat famous in the area because I won a Major Bodybuilding Championship in 1987.  Bonds asked me several questions about growth hormone and steroids.  

But lets take 1993 as the start of MLB steroid era  home runs jumped by 1000 to a total of 4030.  But in 2017 Home runs jumped to 6,105.  In 2014 the total was close to 4k home runs.  

I think when one looks from 1961 to pre steroid era 1992, the average is close to 2800-3000.  So I think performance enhancement drugs are involved still to this day.  Also, digital technology era including computers, stats, science of baseball as aided by computer simulations was in late 1990s early 2000 which also helped with home run output and swing mechanics.  

I think next year will see a regression toward the means in terms of home fun average which seems to hover between 4500-5000 in the modern era.  

Look it up if you don't believe me . . . I was listening to a radio show a few months ago and one of the announcers said that some lady did a comparison of the baseballs in the current crazy "live ball era" vs baseballs from about five years ago.

The baseball from a few years ago had nine more stitches than the current incarnation. This gives less drag to the current ball and lets it carry further. That's why you see so many opposite field home runs.

Again . . . I have no info other than hearing some guy say some lady did some tests. If you want to prove me wrong, I'll accept it but that made far more sense to me than believing that the idiots today are better hitters than yesteryear.

Pete claimed that it was last year and he said that mlb would deny it and they did. He said that he saw a foul ball hit behind the dugout that it bounced clear up into the second deck and that there was no way that the old balls could do that that. I believe him too! Baseball knew all about the steroids/homeruns and looked the other way. They wanted the homeruns without the steroids to they probably juiced the balls. Baseball records were sacred back in the day, more so than any other sport. It was one of the romantic parts about baseball but that was sold off for greed. There’s no way to compare players from different eras anymore. It was tricky before but baseball has fixed it so current scrubs hit more homeruns than great players with average power from the past... Joe Morgan comes to mind. Another thing, if there’s no small ball anymore then why not go to the DH in both leagues? I never hear about other sports changing rules that have been around since forever just to get the games over faster. I just don’t think that decisions are being made for the best interest of the game for the long haul.

I heard it mentioned somewhere that launch angle is becoming more and more emphasized, and that's been a big contributor.
I honestly just think this is funny because it seems like MLB is turning into recreational softball. No one wants to get base hits anymore, it's all about hitting it to the fence!

(07-15-2019, 06:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Ax a fan I like home runs.  If nothing else had changed then all the home runs would not be that bad.  But we have so many more walks and strikeouts and lower batting averages that there are way fewer balls hit "in play".  And when they do get on base they never try to steal.  Games have turned into Home Run Derby contests with no defense or bas running.  Just a batter and a pitcher with everyone else standing around watching.

Agree,

I don't like where the game is going.....at all ! They say they want to speed the game up but about all they've done is make the game more boring. You rarely see hit and run, base stealing is few and far between, squeeze plays and so on. 

The game, to me anyways, gets a little more boring every year. Like you say I don't want to watch home run derbys ! Four hits by team A and three solo home runs, three hits by team B and two solo home runs. Final score 3-2 with 25 combined K's 10 walks, batting average for the game of .125 Doing that fast doesn't make it fun to watch.

(07-16-2019, 10:30 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I heard it mentioned somewhere that launch angle is becoming more and more emphasized, and that's been a big contributor.
I honestly just think this is funny because it seems like MLB is turning into recreational softball. No one wants to get base hits anymore, it's all about hitting it to the fence!

Yup,

I don't know if they've intentionally "juiced" the baseball for more HR's but It's pretty certain the ball has changed over the years. Wound tighter, wrapped tighter, different materials, less stitching, and so on. Just like golf balls of today fly better than those of 30 years ago.

But I think the HR totals of today are the result of many things and it's not just totally the ball being "juiced". Look at NFL linemen of 1975 or whatever, what was the average weight ? 265 ? Smoking cigarettes right before the game. Look at all the fat guys playing baseball in yesteryear. They're in much better shape overall today.

The average speed of fastballs from pitchers has increased, or in other words the pitcher is providing the velocity. As you say they study film and increase the launch angle.

And probably the biggest thing ! Everybody is swinging out of their shoes at the plate, it's all about the HR. The shift is a direct result of guys trying to kill the ball at the plate. Small ball dies a little more every season. Punch and Judy is gone, hit and runs are few are far between, and just on and on.

A large part of the decrease in batting average is because of this. It is becoming softball.