(08-04-2019, 04:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Tom Brady's worst quarter is the 4th. For his career, his 4th quarter passer rating is a full 2 points lower than any other quarter.

His rating drops 5.4 more points when trailing with less than 4 minutes to go.

So I'd gather that the 4th quarter being the worst quarter is a common tale with QB's.

The world has gone crazy.

(08-04-2019, 05:11 PM)Socal Bengals fan Wrote: The world has gone crazy.

?

(08-04-2019, 04:16 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I know what you were saying brother. My response was that those 1-2 missed throws were one of Dalton's few opportunities to prove his "clutch" ability. I'm saying if he weren't playing for the choking-est coach ever, he (and others) would've had far more "clutch" opportunities. Because lets be honest, most of our playoff games weren't even close. Marv's offenses always stunk in the playoffs, and the defense probably wasn't any better.

Just because he missed those 1-2 throws doesn't = he'd miss most clutch throws.

He missed the throw to AJ in the end zone in the 2nd Houston playoff game that would have put the Bengals in the lead.

(08-04-2019, 04:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Tom Brady's worst quarter is the 4th. For his career, his 4th quarter passer rating is a full 2 points lower than any other quarter.

His rating drops 5.4 more points when trailing with less than 4 minutes to go.

So I'd gather that the 4th quarter being the worst quarter is a common tale with QB's.

May be, but Brady has many skins on the wall with his 4th qtr comebacks in the playoffs and SBs. There is zero question of his clutchness. 

(08-04-2019, 04:51 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: This is like saying "among the best QB's, Dalton is below average". 

You are eliminating a LOT of QB's who come and go, and considering only the QB's who have stuck around for the long haul. 

It's similar to saying "Joe is a below average employee" by not considering all the guys who get hired and fired within a year.

Not really. That's why i provided the 5,000 yard stat. It includes a lot of guys, from a year or two to 8+.

All the rest (specifically) the 20,000 yards guys, are his peers. 

Wilson, Ryan, Cousins, Smith and Stafford are guys ahead of him. Cousins, Smith and Stafford are guys that are usually grouped with him. 

(08-04-2019, 07:38 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: He missed the throw to AJ in the end zone in the 2nd Houston playoff game that would have put the Bengals in the lead.

We're still talking about a tiny sample size of throws. He hasn't had many opportunities to be clutch in PT or particularly the playoffs.

(08-04-2019, 07:40 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: May be, but Brady has many skins on the wall with his 4th qtr comebacks in the playoffs and SBs. There is zero question of his clutchness. 

I wasn't questioning Brady's clutchness. I was saying that a lower 4th quarter rating can't be used as evidence that Dalton is a choker.

(08-04-2019, 04:16 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Just because he missed those 1-2 throws doesn't = he'd miss most clutch throws.

2012 vs Steelers in prime time, missed 4 straight 2nd (just one) or 3rd (three) down throws on the last 3 drives of the game.

2012 vs Texans in the playoffs, missed a throw to an open AJ in the end zone on 3rd down that would have given the Bengals the lead. 

2013 vs Miami in prime time, missed a 3rd down pass from the Dolphins 36 on the last drive of regulation.
**** missed a 2nd and 3rd down pass from the Dolphins 39 in overtime. (2nd down was a dropped pass)
**** took a sack in overtime to end the game.
2013 vs Steelers in prime time (flexed game late in the year), missed 4 straight passes (1,2,3,4th down) on the last drive (game wasn't lost on this--they were down 10).

2015 vs Cardinals in prime time, missed 2 throws on the final drive (kicked FG to tie game)

2016 vs Giants in prime time, stood like a statue and got sacked on 2nd and 3rd down on the last drive of the game.

2017 vs Texans in prime time, missed 3rd and 4th down on last drive of game (3rd down throwaway after rollout. 4th down a mile over erickson's head).


That's a lot of misses on critical downs in "bigger" games. 

14 actual misses, not counting sacks on critical passing downs on 19 drop backs (opportunities).

(08-04-2019, 07:46 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Not really. That's why i provided the 5,000 yard stat. It includes a lot of guys, from a year or two to 8+.

All the rest (specifically) the 20,000 yards guys, are his peers. 

Wilson, Ryan, Cousins, Smith and Stafford are guys ahead of him. Cousins, Smith and Stafford are guys that are usually grouped with him. 

Yes really. Anytime you set a bar like "5000 yards" you're going to cut out a lot of guys who qualified 1 year but didn't reach 5000 yards during that span. Such as:

Matt Moore (2011)
Kevin Kolb (2011)
Tarvaris Jackson (2011)
Colt McCoy (2011)
Tim Tebow (2011)
John Skelton (2011)
Curtis Painter (2011)
Jake Locker (2012)
Kellen Clemens (2013)
EJ Manuel (2013)
Jason Campbell (2013)
Terrelle Pryor (2013)
Austin Davis (2014)
Shaun Hill (2014)
Drew Stanton (2014)
Jacoby Brissett (2017)
Brett Hundley (2017)
CJ Beathard (2017)
Deshone Kizer (2017)
Baker Mayfield (2018)
Nick Mullens (2018)
Sam Darnold (2018)
Josh Allen (2018)
Josh Rosen (2018)

That right there is 24 QB's you're cutting out, almost all of which would be behind Dalton in passer rating.

(08-04-2019, 08:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yes really. Anytime you set a bar like "5000 yards" you're going to cut out a lot of guys who qualified 1 year but didn't reach 5000 yards during that span. Such as:

Matt Moore (2011)
Kevin Kolb (2011)
Tarvaris Jackson (2011)
Colt McCoy (2011)
Tim Tebow (2011)
John Skelton (2011)
Curtis Painter (2011)
Jake Locker (2012)
Kellen Clemens (2013)
EJ Manuel (2013)
Jason Campbell (2013)
Terrelle Pryor (2013)
Austin Davis (2014)
Shaun Hill (2014)
Drew Stanton (2014)
Jacoby Brissett (2017)
Brett Hundley (2017)
CJ Beathard (2017)
Deshone Kizer (2017)
Baker Mayfield (2018)
Nick Mullens (2018)
Sam Darnold (2018)
Josh Allen (2018)
Josh Rosen (2018)

That right there is 24 QB's you're cutting out, almost all of which would be behind Dalton in passer rating.

Setting the bar at 2,500 yards (a minimum amount for a QB in any season where they are the #1 starter), 72 QBs qualify. 

Dalton is 25th out of 75. 

Garopollo and Mayfield jumped on the list ahead of him. 



Maybe i'm misreading it...but i'm kind of confused why you need to have guys that started one year--or couldn't manage even 5,000 passing yards in their career--ranked with Dalton who has played 8 and has almost 30,000 passing yards. 

(08-04-2019, 08:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 2012 vs Steelers in prime time, missed 4 straight 2nd (just one) or 3rd (three) down throws on the last 3 drives of the game.

2012 vs Texans in the playoffs, missed a throw to an open AJ in the end zone on 3rd down that would have given the Bengals the lead. 

2013 vs Miami in prime time, missed a 3rd down pass from the Dolphins 36 on the last drive of regulation.
**** missed a 2nd and 3rd down pass from the Dolphins 39 in overtime. (2nd down was a dropped pass)
**** took a sack in overtime to end the game.
2013 vs Steelers in prime time (flexed game late in the year), missed 4 straight passes (1,2,3,4th down) on the last drive (game wasn't lost on this--they were down 10).

2015 vs Cardinals in prime time, missed 2 throws on the final drive (kicked FG to tie game)

2016 vs Giants in prime time, stood like a statue and got sacked on 2nd and 3rd down on the last drive of the game.

2017 vs Texans in prime time, missed 3rd and 4th down on last drive of game (3rd down throwaway after rollout. 4th down a mile over erickson's head).


That's a lot of misses on critical downs in "bigger" games. 

14 actual misses, not counting sacks on critical passing downs on 19 drop backs (opportunities).

So what you're saying is that Dalton has only had 7 opportunities to prove whether or not he's clutch in big games. In 8 years. 

...and it's highly debatable whether or not some of these were truly clutch situations. Down 10 on the last drive? That Giants game where Dalton was getting pummeled? You say he stood there like a statue, but where was he supposed to go? Ogbuehi got manhandled by JPP and there was nothing even resembling a pocket because the whole line was folding back like a cheap lawn chair. The only place for someone of Dalton's athleticism to run was backwards. Can't throw it out when you're in the hash marks. Besides a hyper athletic QB, I'm not sure who makes a play there. 


In the Cards game, Dalton led us back to tie the game after trailing 14 heading into the 4th. Even on the drive you claim he came up short, he went 3/6 for 48 yards with a 6 yard run to even get us in position to tie the game with a FG. If anything, Dalton was clutch as heck in this game.

So again it goes back to: how many clutch scenarios in PT/playoffs has he really had? 

(08-04-2019, 09:30 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Setting the bar at 2,500 yards (a minimum amount for a QB in any season where they are the #1 starter), 72 QBs qualify. 

Dalton is 25th out of 75. 

Garopollo and Mayfield jumped on the list ahead of him. 



Maybe i'm misreading it...but i'm kind of confused why you need to have guys that started one year--or couldn't manage even 5,000 passing yards in their career--ranked with Dalton who has played 8 and has almost 30,000 passing yards. 

Because QB's like that start in the NFL literally every year. If you're trying to figure out where Dalton fits in, you have to consider the bad QB's in the NFL just as you consider the best QB's. 

(08-04-2019, 11:03 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: So what you're saying is that Dalton has only had 7 opportunities to prove whether or not he's clutch in big games. In 8 years. 7 opportunities but 14 throws on 19 drop backs. Sorry, you can't minimize it by just counting the number of games. It's the opportunities he's had. 

...and it's highly debatable whether or not some of these were truly clutch situations. Down 10 on the last drive? (He can still make a throw to score and put pressure on the other team) That Giants game where Dalton was getting pummeled? You say he stood there like a statue, but where was he supposed to go? Ogbuehi got manhandled by JPP and there was nothing even resembling a pocket because the whole line was folding back like a cheap lawn chair. The only place for someone of Dalton's athleticism to run was backwards. Can't throw it out when you're in the hash marks. Besides a hyper athletic QB, I'm not sure who makes a play there. It doesn't just take a hyper athletic QB. Some QBs use their brain to make a quicker decision, some simply manipulate the pocket...hell, if your line is sucking that bad, take it on yourself to roll one way or the other and don't stand there like a sitting duck. 


In the Cards game, Dalton led us back to tie the game after trailing 14 heading into the 4th. Even on the drive you claim he came up short, he went 3/6 for 48 yards with a 6 yard run to even get us in position to tie the game with a FG. If anything, Dalton was clutch as heck in this game. Except that he had the opportunity to put the team ahead and he couldn't make the thow at the end. (He's good enough to get close, but can't get over the top)

So again it goes back to: how many clutch scenarios in PT/playoffs has he really had? As many as i showed. And that doesn't even mention all the games he's had to look really good in losses. He doesn't even have a single game where he matches the opposing QB in a loss, like Cousins V Goff last year. People love to compare Dalton to Cousins.

I just showed you all the opportunities he's had at the end those games and he's not produced a win in any of them. It's not that he's missed a bunch and got it done a few/couple times, he's failed every time. There were a couple times in that group of games he only needed to make 1 throw and the narrative is completely different. How many examples do people need before they finally come to the conclusion that he's just a good QB that hasn't made a throw at the end of any of those games to pull it out? It's not a bash, it's just the reality. His only claim to fame is starting hot and hanging on for the win. 

I mean, come on. He can't even make 1 throw to make a difference in a W and an L...in 8 years?

(08-04-2019, 11:06 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Because QB's like that start in the NFL literally every year. If you're trying to figure out where Dalton fits in, you have to consider the bad QB's in the NFL just as you consider the best QB's. 

Not necessarily. I prefer to see where he stands against other QBs with similar amounts of time and opportunity, to truly guage where he stands among them. 

He wasn't just being compared to the best. He was being compared to everyone that had 5,000, 10,000, 15,000 and 20,000 yards. 

(08-04-2019, 11:06 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Because QB's like that start in the NFL literally every year. If you're trying to figure out where Dalton fits in, you have to consider the bad QB's in the NFL just as you consider the best QB's. 

And just as a side not (that's at the crux of what i was saying), i wasn't comparing him to everyone that's had X# of starts. I was comparing him to everyone that had a specific number of yards at different intervals. 

If we set the bar at 2,500 yards, there are 7 QBs who have a better passer rating than Dalton that have only been in the league no longer than 2016. 

SEVEN


Mahommes, Watson, Prescott, Goff, Mayfield, Wentz and Mariotta. 

That doesn't include Garopollo, who only has 10 starts (but a better rating). 

That's a lot of damn QBs that have a better rating but have only been in the league 3 years or less. 

(08-05-2019, 01:51 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: That's a lot of damn QBs that have a better rating but have only been in the league 3 years or less. 

That is because they have played under QB friendlier rules.

Dalton's rookie season ('11) Roethlisbereger finished in the top 10 with a passer rating of 90.1.  In 2018 a 90.1 passer rating would be ranked 25th.

(08-05-2019, 08:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That is because they have played under QB friendlier rules.

Dalton's rookie season ('11) Roethlisbereger finished in the top 10 with a passer rating of 90.1.  In 2018 a 90.1 passer rating would be ranked 25th.

That's true, but in the last 3 years Dalton's rating has been 91.8, 86.6 and 89.6 under those same rules.

(08-05-2019, 12:19 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: That's true, but in the last 3 years Dalton's rating has been 91.8, 86.6 and 89.6 under those same rules.

Yes, and his passer rating over those three years is higher (89.4) than Mariota's (88.7) who you are trying to rank ahead of him.

(08-05-2019, 12:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, and his passer rating over those three years is higher (89.4) than Mariota's (88.7) who you are trying to rank ahead of him.

Yes it is. 

(08-04-2019, 04:51 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: This is like saying "among the best QB's, Dalton is below average". 

You are eliminating a LOT of QB's who come and go, and considering only the QB's who have stuck around for the long haul. 

It's similar to saying "Joe is a below average employee" by not considering all the guys who get hired and fired within a year.

Yep. Plus, it also seems that rfaulk is saying there's a single QB that is average and everyone else is above or below average.