So yeah, I dunno if you're like me or anything but it's pretty exciting that football is back and that the Bengals kickoff on Sunday. And I just had this crazy thought that maybe people would want to talk about the game? I mean maybe I'm wrong and you're more interested in yet another thread about who's calling the shots in the front office, or an in depth discussion on how Josh Malone totally should still be on the roster, or some more analysis of Mike Brown as an owner ("hey guys did you know he might not be very good?")... but I'm thinking somebody might want to , you know, talk some football?

So Bengals vs Seahawks, this Sunday at 4pm. The baby Bengals are lead by their new young coaching staff into one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL to square off against a playoff team from a year ago. What matchups do you look at as favoring the good guys? What matchups do you think will cause us fits? Is there anything in particular you think is the key to the game, and why is that? What are you looking for on offense, and what approach do you think we might see from the defense? Are there any players in particular you look to be an X factor? If you've got thoughts on any of these, I'd love to hear and discuss them!

Note that this is NOT a predictions thread (that's elsewhere), but feel free to throw yours out there in your discussion if you want.

My biggest concern is fairly obvious, and that's Russell Wilson... I feel he's the prototypical quarterback at things that have typically given us trouble. I worry that his feet may end up being the difference in the game and fear that he will most likely take advantages of our linebackers throughout the game. I think the Bengals will go heavy on the defensive line at times and will bring some decent pressure, but I can see him escaping that pressure at times for big gains.

More thoughts to come later!

Keys to the game:

Our running game needs to step up. A good game by Mixon is almost a must. It will take the crowd out of it. Plus take Clowney away except in obvious passing situations.

Keeping Seattle one dimensional by stacking the box and keeping Russell off balance. Seattle's WR are unproven and we should match up well. I'd shade to Lockett's side as a safety.

Clowney has to be blocked. Sample should be in to chip and even double team often.

Have to stop the run. Seattle will likely try to pound it down our throats. If we can shut down their run game I like our chances.

Conversely, our offensive line has to step up. If we get pounded up front it's gunna be a long day.

yey...the Reds are gonna lose again..  Oh...you mean football? Oh yeah...that.. 

I suspect our offense will be mostly check downs and short stuff with the occasional shot down field. I don't see a lot of mid-level pass attempts. I think Eifert is the guy to throw to mid range if they're going to do it.

(09-03-2019, 11:40 PM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: Have to stop the run. Seattle will likely try to pound it down our throats. If we can shut down their run game I like our chances.

Conversely, our offensive line has to step up. If we get pounded up front it's gunna be a long day.

They're the most run heavy team in the league... Wilson doesn't run as much as he once did. He may scramble to extend plays, but that's about it. He had games last year with 10 and 12 completions. I expect Chris Carson to run right at us to see if we can stop it.

The key is too keep Seattle in 3rd and long situations
Rush 4 drop 7 in coverage
Don't let Wilson get too comfortable
Or rush 5 drop 6.
Keep.him guessing

When the Bengals have the ball.
Keep on attacking the secondary. Put pressure
On the CB's.
Mix up.your formations
Dont let the Hawks read everything before the snap

(09-03-2019, 11:35 PM)EatonFan Wrote: Keys to the game:

Our running game needs to step up.  A good game by Mixon is almost a must.  It will take the crowd out of it.  Plus take Clowney away except in obvious passing situations.

Keeping Seattle one dimensional by stacking the box and keeping Russell off balance.  Seattle's WR are unproven and we should match up well.  I'd shade to Lockett's side as a safety.

Yeah, I'd say not letting Lockett make big plays is crucial.

Seattle's D is suspect. They're missing Reed, a key Dlineman. They got run on throughout the preseason. Their secondary is pretty average, but I still wish we had AJ out there. The question for us, is our Oline. If they can just be ok, I think we can put up points. Plus, don't forget, ZT has faced Seattle twice a year the past couple of seasons. He ought to know how to attack them. With the exception of a game in 2017, the Rams put up more than 30 on them every time. Rams won 3 out of 4 from 2017-2018.

Tyler Lockett is a beast. Otherwise, their WRs are as questionable as their secondary, but Seattle runs the ball ALOT. Billings, Tupou, and Glasgow should see alot of time on the field, and Brown and Vigil have to have good games. If we stop the run, I think we win the game. As always, however, we have to worry about TEs killing us, and the Hawks have a pretty good one. All that said, Russell Wilson is a great QB. I've been a fan since his days at NCState. I don't think this is a guaranteed loss for us, but we're going to have to play extremely well to have a chance.

When Bengals have ball
1.) Pass on first downs
2.) Attack the seams with Eifert and Ross
3.) Get an early comfortable lead to force Sea Hawks to be a one dimension passing game

When Seahawks have ball
1.) Being discipline to the play-action fake
2.) Stay in the rush lanes
3.) Double Lockett force other Wrs to beat you.

(09-03-2019, 11:52 PM)jason Wrote: They're the most run heavy team in the league... Wilson doesn't run as much as he once did. He may scramble to extend plays, but that's about it. He had games last year with 10 and 12 completions. I expect Chris Carson to run right at us to see if we can stop it.

I think they know this and will attack Early. They have only one threat at WR in Lockett if they are in consistent 3rd & longs their screwed.

(09-03-2019, 11:28 PM)NKURyan Wrote: So yeah, I dunno if you're like me or anything but it's pretty exciting that football is back and that the Bengals kickoff on Sunday. And I just had this crazy thought that maybe people would want to talk about the game? I mean maybe I'm wrong and you're more interested in yet another thread about who's calling the shots in the front office, or an in depth discussion on how Josh Malone totally should still be on the roster, or some more analysis of Mike Brown as an owner ("hey guys did you know he might not be very good?")... but I'm thinking somebody might want to , you know, talk some football?

So Bengals vs Seahawks, this Sunday at 4pm. The baby Bengals are lead by their new young coaching staff into one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL to square off against a playoff team from a year ago. What matchups do you look at as favoring the good guys? What matchups do you think will cause us fits? Is there anything in particular you think is the key to the game, and why is that? What are you looking for on offense, and what approach do you think we might see from the defense? Are there any players in particular you look to be an X factor? If you've got thoughts on any of these, I'd love to hear and discuss them!

Note that this is NOT a predictions thread (that's elsewhere), but feel free to throw yours out there in your discussion if you want.

Bengals are 11-9 all time vs the Seahawks (including 1 playoff game)
Bengals are 2-0 vs the Seahawks in the Dalton/Green era.
Bengals are 4-4 vs the Seahawks in Seattle

Seattle is a 9.5 pt favorite (biggest favorite of the week)
Predicted score is 28-9
Over/Under is 44. Vegas is picking the Under.

Trends:
Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 opening month games, but...
they're 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.
Seattle is 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS in it's last 14 September home games. 
Seattle is 18-3 SU in their last 21 when hosting an East Coast team.

Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games (lol Driskel), but...
they're 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on the West Coast and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games (Dalton).
Bengals are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an NFC West team.

The total has gone Over in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games against the Bengals and in 8 of Seattle's last 9 games overall. 
The Over has also hit in 7 of the Bengals last 9 week 1 games and in each of their last 5 September matchups.

By score alone, Seattle is 4-0 in their last 4 September home games and the Bengals are 3-3 in their last 6 September road games, since 2016.

Bengals vs NFC West all time (regular season) 28-28.

I don't know what the heck to do with all those numbers because my head is spinning now but somehow, Vegas has the Seahawks winning big despite them being slow starters and the Bengals being fast starters and playing well on the West Coast. 

They make note of the Bengals bad defense last year (a couple times), uncertain offensive line and AJ being out. 

Joe Mixon on the road.

2017 - per game, averaged 15 carries for 50 yards 3.3 ypc and had a total of 2 TDs. 
2018 - per game, averaged 16 carries for 74 yards 4.6 ypc and had a total of 3 TDs. 

He will need more carries and a lot more yards this week. Something like 22 carries for 105 yards and a TD or two. 

Andy Dalton will need to be more like '15-'17 on the road where he went 39/10 TD to INT, than he was in '18 when he was 10/7. 

Hidden yards, as Lap likes to call them--punt and kick returns--will need to be big for the Bengals to offset the defense and give the Bengals a shorter field. 

And last but not least, turnovers will need to be in the Bengals favor. Since '15 the Bengals are;
19-7 when they win the turnover battle
5-17-1 when they lose the turnover battle, and
6-9 when they tie the turnover battle.

So, 25-16 when they win or tie, 
and 5-17-1 when they lose. 
Turnovers, more than anything, are a pretty good predictor of the outcome.

I just have a complete lack of enthusiasm this year. Partially the letdown of last year, partially the Reds.

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The offense needs to attack the edges, something we did very little of during the preseason. Bobby Wagner has great range but if we can get Mixon and our receivers on jet sweeps to the edge we can limit his impact. I'd expect to see more of the outside zone running we had been expecting coming in to the season this week. Because the Seahawks run almost exclusively cover 3 look for a lot of seam routes out of the slot and TE position, Curl/Flat combo's on the outside, and trips formations with flood concepts. Clowney is overrated as a pass rusher but with reed out we can slide to his side if we want. I'm not too worried about the pass rush though as I believe the ball will get out quick as it has all pre season.

Defensively, we are going to have to stop the run. I'd consider running a cover 4 which would get your safeties more involved in the run defense. On passing downs look for Lawson to rush from everywhere including from a standing LB position inside. I believe Jackson could mirror Lockett all game which should still give us the flexibility to spy Wilson if we need to at certain times.

(09-04-2019, 02:55 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Bengals are 11-9 all time vs the Seahawks (including 1 playoff game)
Bengals are 2-0 vs the Seahawks in the Dalton/Green era.
Bengals are 4-4 vs the Seahawks in Seattle

Seattle is a 9.5 pt favorite (biggest favorite of the week)
Predicted score is 28-9
Over/Under is 44. Vegas is picking the Under.

Trends:
Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 opening month games, but...
they're 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.
Seattle is 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS in it's last 14 September home games. 
Seattle is 18-3 SU in their last 21 when hosting an East Coast team.

Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games (lol Driskel), but...
they're 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on the West Coast and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games (Dalton).
Bengals are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an NFC West team.

The total has gone Over in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games against the Bengals and in 8 of Seattle's last 9 games overall. 
The Over has also hit in 7 of the Bengals last 9 week 1 games and in each of their last 5 September matchups.

By score alone, Seattle is 4-0 in their last 4 September home games and the Bengals are 3-3 in their last 6 September road games, since 2016.

Bengals vs NFC West all time (regular season) 28-28.

I don't know what the heck to do with all those numbers because my head is spinning now but somehow, Vegas has the Seahawks winning big despite them being slow starters and the Bengals being fast starters and playing well on the West Coast. 

They make note of the Bengals bad defense last year (a couple times), uncertain offensive line and AJ being out. 

Last I heard, Seattle was favored by 5... It's all the way up to 9.5?

(09-04-2019, 02:28 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: When Bengals have ball
1.) Pass on first downs
2.) Attack the seams with Eifert and Ross
3.) Get an early comfortable lead to force Sea Hawks to be a one dimension passing game

When Seahawks have ball
1.) Being discipline to the play-action fake
2.) Stay in the rush lanes
3.) Double Lockett force other Wrs to beat you.

Pretty much summed up my thoughts.  The "get an early lead" is easier said than done, I know, but I think the Bengals need to take a shot early to try and catch Seattle overpursuing and hit them with a big play to help take the crowd out of it.  I hope ZT has something up his sleeve and has the guts to give it a shot. 

When the Hawks have the ball, the Bengals will likely be in base...which is a bit of a concern.  Adding a LB to our alignment with our LB corps doesn't make us a better defense.  And it likely keeps Lawson off the field.  Hope they can make the changes necessary to have the rotation and still play some nickel.  Early success in the run defense is key.  The defensive line will need to be stout against the run and, hopefully, get some hits on Wilson (which I know is a real challenge).

Here is to being aggressive and seeing our team come out breathing fire.  

(09-04-2019, 04:05 AM)Storer50 Wrote: I just have a complete lack of enthusiasm this year. Partially the letdown of last year, partially the Reds.

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Wow...not me.  In the past, I could convince myself that they were going to be a playoff team and they had the talent, blah, blah, blah....but in the back of my mind was Mediocre Marv....who would always have horrible clock management, a conservative game plan, and no energy.  At the very least, I am interested to see how this new coaching staff attacks.