I preface this by saying I hope we do trade him and I would love to be proved wrong.

So what do you guys think we will end up getting in 2021 as a comp pick after we neglect trading him this season and then AJ totally signs somewhere else in free agency?

My guess would be a 4th.

If I'm not mistaken, the rules say it will be a 5th. Due to him being a veteran and how long he's played I think it's capped at a 5th.

EDIT: I'm wrong on that. That's for vets who have played 10 seasons.

(10-29-2019, 09:56 AM)muskiesfan Wrote: If I'm not mistaken, the rules say it will be a 5th. Due to him being a veteran and how long he's played I think it's capped at a 5th.

EDIT: I'm wrong on that. That's for vets who have played 10 seasons.

I always thought it had something to do on where we drafted him, and the deal he gets with another team. Basically if we drafted him in the 1st and he signs a substantial deal somewhere else that would result in us getting a higher comp pick.

I get the sense that despite all the evidence to say otherwise, this franchise believes it can be a true contender over the next 2-3 years.
Therefore, I think they believe it makes sense to keep all their top contributors like Green, Atkins, and Dunlap while building through the draft and bringing in a few B-to-C-tier FAs like they always have.

(10-29-2019, 10:04 AM)yellowxdiscipline Wrote: I always thought it had something to do on where we drafted him, and the deal he gets with another team. Basically if we drafted him in the 1st and he signs a substantial deal somewhere else that would result in us getting a higher comp pick.

There is an entire formula to it. https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Once players hit 10 seasons, none of that really matters. The highest comp pick you can get for a 10 year vet is a 5th.

They'll franchise tag him.

(10-29-2019, 10:07 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I get the sense that despite all the evidence to say otherwise, this franchise believes it can be a true contender over the next 2-3 years.
Therefore, I think they believe it makes sense to keep all their top contributors like Green, Atkins, and Dunlap while building through the draft and bringing in a few B-to-C-tier FAs like they always have.

They are truly delusional if that's really the case. The only way to achieve this is to stock pile draft picks by trading guys away who are at the end of their current deals (i.e. AJ Green which they aren't doing) and being aggressive in free agency (which they never do). There is no conceivable way this team is a contender in the next three years unless they do a complete 180 on how they operate this team.

At this point, I'm fairly certain the Bengals will franchise tag AJ.

I think it's a waste of money because you're paying top 5 money for a WR who, while worth the money, is playing on a team that will almost assuredly be terrible next year.

But maybe we're wrong and the coaches have a grand plan to jump from 0-8 (possibly as bad as 0-16) directly to playoff contention with just 1 draft and maybe a few tier 4 (out of 5 tiers) free agent signings. We do have an offensive genius as a head coach after all.

...lol.

(10-29-2019, 10:36 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: At this point, I'm fairly certain the Bengals will franchise tag AJ.

I think it's a waste of money because you're paying top 5 money for a WR who, while worth the money, is playing on a team that will almost assuredly be terrible next year.

But maybe we're wrong and the coaches have a grand plan to jump from 0-8 (possibly as bad as 0-16) directly to playoff contention with just 1 draft and maybe a few tier 4 (out of 5 tiers) free agent signings. We do have an offensive genius as a head coach after all.

...lol.

Its doable, but its going to take a concerted effort by the Front Office which will involve saying goodbye to a few fan favs on bad deals, hitting a home run on a draft that will take at least 9-10 picks, and being uncharacteristically aggressive in free agency. With the boobs i see running this team i dont see that happening.

Didn't he come out and say he wants to play in Cincy? Why would he lie about that? I don't understand it but why would he lie? He could easily go wherever he wanted as I am sure the Bengals would ask him where he would like to go from the available offers.

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I thought I read something that stated we might not be able to franchise tag him. I forget the rationale.

But if we can, I agree. We will.

(10-29-2019, 11:56 AM)ah5 Wrote: Didn't he come out and say he wants to play in Cincy?  Why would he lie about that? I don't understand it but why would he lie?  He could easily go wherever he wanted as I am sure the Bengals would ask him where he would like to go from the available offers.

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He could easily change his mind as soon as the season is over and take his talents elsewhere.

The only rationale I have heard for not being able to franchise him is that it will be too expensive and the Bengals won’t want to pay what it will cost.

Honestly, reading the articles and listening to all the people talking about this, I really hope we keep him and resign him as soon as possible. Proving all the media guys saying he won’t resign here wrong feels like the only win we might get this season. I’ve been a fan long enough to know the Bengals are a frustrating franchise, but these guys are starting to make it sound like we are a movie villain. By keeping A.J. Green all we are doing is keeping him from joining a winning team and letting the rest of the NFL enjoy his immense talent. What a bunch as a**holes we are for that.

(10-29-2019, 10:36 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: At this point, I'm fairly certain the Bengals will franchise tag AJ.

I think it's a waste of money because you're paying top 5 money for a WR who, while worth the money, is playing on a team that will almost assuredly be terrible next year.

But maybe we're wrong and the coaches have a grand plan to jump from 0-8 (possibly as bad as 0-16) directly to playoff contention with just 1 draft and maybe a few tier 4 (out of 5 tiers) free agent signings. We do have an offensive genius as a head coach after all.

...lol.

They need to actually have a great draft...

EVERY TEAM drafts and has free agency...and their fanbases think they will be good at both. The reality is...we haven't been.

(10-29-2019, 09:29 AM)yellowxdiscipline Wrote: I preface this by saying I hope we do trade him and I would love to be proved wrong.

So what do you guys think we will end up getting in 2021 as a comp pick after we neglect trading him this season and then AJ totally signs somewhere else in free agency?

My guess would be a 4th.

A 4th or 5th rounder, depending on how the contract is structured if he misses any games next season due to injury. Remember we only got a 5th rounder for Whit.

 

(10-29-2019, 10:36 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: At this point, I'm fairly certain the Bengals will franchise tag AJ.

I think it's a waste of money because you're paying top 5 money for a WR who, while worth the money, is playing on a team that will almost assuredly be terrible next year.

But maybe we're wrong and the coaches have a grand plan to jump from 0-8 (possibly as bad as 0-16) directly to playoff contention with just 1 draft and maybe a few tier 4 (out of 5 tiers) free agent signings. We do have an offensive genius as a head coach after all.

...lol.

Cant see it happening seeing how this team is apprehensive to use the tag anyway.

IF the NFL truly wants to help the Bengals and force Mike to do things differently, one of the things they could do is take away the idea of comp picks.

(10-29-2019, 11:56 AM)ah5 Wrote: Didn't he come out and say he wants to play in Cincy?  Why would he lie about that? I don't understand it but why would he lie?  He could easily go wherever he wanted as I am sure the Bengals would ask him where he would like to go from the available offers.

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People tend to put their emotions onto players instead of listening to what the players themselves actually want. AJ will resign here, he said his agent and the FO will work it out, he's not worried about it. He's not even worried about the money, he wants the records. He will resign here, bank on it.

We will 100% get a 3rd round comp pick for AJ if he leaves in FA. Not a 4th or 5th. That’s why people (other teams fans/etc) saying they should be able to get him for a 3rd is laughable. There is little to no incentive to trade him for a 3rd as we could just get a 3rd the following year. Only difference is this year from trade or next from comp pick.

But the original question has a very easy answer. AJ on the free agent market will undoubtedly bring a 3rd rounder unless the bengals sign a big time FA class to cancel his loss out (lol)

(10-29-2019, 02:41 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: We will 100% get a 3rd round comp pick for AJ if he leaves in FA. Not a 4th or 5th. That’s why people (other teams fans/etc) saying they should be able to get him for a 3rd is laughable. There is little to no incentive to trade him for a 3rd as we could just get a 3rd the following year. Only difference is this year from trade or next from comp pick.

But the original question has a very easy answer. AJ on the free agent market will undoubtedly bring a 3rd rounder unless the bengals sign a big time FA class to cancel his loss out (lol)

A 3rd rounder this year is more valuable than a 3rd round compensatory next year both as it'll be maybe a dozen picks higher and also a pick this year is more valuable than a deferred pick, but surely the Bengals would use a franchise tag for a player who has consistently stated he wants to stay in Cincinnati than let him walk for a third.