Wow - We have the highest amount of homegrown players...and yet we've been terrible! Atleast we're not the Giants I guess!

Per request here is the average amount of homegrown players per team from 2017 to 2019 plotted against their record over that span pic.twitter.com/DEy5Dkh87A

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) December 12, 2019

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There is no problem with building through the draft but it can't be the only way to build the team. 2009- 2013 we saw plenty of impact players through free agency or trade. Then all of a sudden it stopped. They need a more open mind when it comes to player development.

I've done threads that show that teams like the Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots have 2 to 3 times the player personnel department as us. It seems that investing more resources would help.

Basically most other teams are structured one way...and they all atleast occasionally win playoff games. The Bengals are structured totally different and never win playoff games.

Hmmm...

Decades ago teams could be built solely through the draft -- but not now. In the modern NFL one must draft well, be active in free agency, and make judicious trades to be competitive.

(12-12-2019, 04:10 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I've done threads that show that teams like the Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots have 2 to 3 times the player personnel department as us. It seems that investing more resources would help.

Don't the Lions, Browns, Jags, Bucs, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets, also have 2 to 3 times the player personnel department as us?

(12-12-2019, 06:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Don't the Lions, Browns, Jags, Bucs, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets, also have 2 to 3 times the player personnel department as us?

Yep Quantity isn't always Quality.

Pretty Sure they all have that Magical GM too.

(12-12-2019, 06:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Don't the Lions, Browns, Jags, Bucs, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets, also have 2 to 3 times the player personnel department as us?

All have Playoff wins more recently than the Bengals too, including Super Bowl appearances and wins. Keep rationalizing mediocrity Fred...

If that graph shows anything, it's that there's no "right way" or "wrong way" to go about building a team, aside from maybe having better quality talent evaluators and smarter deal makers in place.

(12-12-2019, 03:54 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Wow - We have the highest amount of homegrown players...and yet we've been terrible! Atleast we're not the Giants I guess!

Per request here is the average amount of homegrown players per team from 2017 to 2019 plotted against their record over that span pic.twitter.com/DEy5Dkh87A

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) December 12, 2019

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This graph shows a direct correlation between home grown talent and winning.

Of the 17 teams above average in wins 10 of them are above average in home grown talent.

Of the 14 teams above average in home grown talent 10 of them are above average in wins.

Draft picks are so much cheaper than free agents that you pretty much have to draft well to win consistently

Sometimes "homegrown" can be the absolute best.

Like if you live in Humboldt County.

(12-12-2019, 07:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This graph shows a direct correlation between home grown talent and winning.

Of the 17 teams above average in wins 10 of them are above average in home grown talent.

Of the 14 teams above average in home grown talent 10 of them are above average in wins.

Draft picks are so much cheaper than free agents that you pretty much have to draft well to win consistently

Yep... The reason the Jets had $100 million in cap space last off-season is they literally had no one to re-sign. They have busted horribly since 2012. They only have 2 or 3 of their first rounders still on the team, and they are the most recent picks.

(12-12-2019, 06:56 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote: All have Playoff wins more recently than the Bengals too, including Super Bowl appearances and wins. Keep rationalizing mediocrity Fred...

The Bengals have been significantly better than all of those teams for 15 years.

And all of those teams have GMs.

Facts.

What a dumb stat, who the cares?

(12-12-2019, 04:06 PM)J24 Wrote: There is no problem with building through the draft but it can't be the only way to build the team.  2009- 2013 we saw plenty of impact players through free agency or trade. Then all of a sudden it stopped. They need a more open mind when it comes to player development.

Honestly...EVERY TEAM wants to build through the draft and nail their draft picks.

No team is like, we want to draft bad and exclusively use free agency.

(12-12-2019, 06:11 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Decades ago teams could be built solely through the draft -- but not now.  In the modern NFL one must draft well, be active in free agency, and make judicious trades to be competitive.

Modern free agency began around 1991. The time the Bengals stopped winning playoff games.

Years ago...players didn't change teams as much as they do today. The Bengals still operate under that model.

(12-12-2019, 09:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The Bengals have been significantly better than all of those teams for 15 years.

And all of those teams have GMs.

Facts.

Maybe some team will offer us a draft pick package so that Mike Brown can be their GM.

(12-12-2019, 10:38 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: We're 26th or 30 teams in wins since 1995 so some of those teams have been better than us.

Also, they've ALL won playoff games since we last have.

We have been significantly better than all those teams for a decade and a half.

(12-12-2019, 10:34 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Honestly...EVERY TEAM wants to build through the draft and nail their draft picks.

No team is like, we want to draft bad and exclusively use free agency.

It depends what sport but in the NFL  yeah most teams build through the draft. Still the Bengals need to do a better job of signing free agents.

(12-12-2019, 07:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If that graph shows anything, it's that there's no "right way" or "wrong way" to go about building a team, aside from maybe having better quality talent evaluators and smarter deal makers in place.

Ehh, I don't know the statistical significance and t-test and all that stuff, but it looks like there is a noticeable positive correlation between the percentage of homegrown players and overall wins, to me.  We are a ridiculous outlier in the sense that we have the most homegrown players and we are very low on the win percentage scale.

That sums it up, really...we are an outlier and we and the massive amount of white space between us and the next closest team plotted on that grid is pretty significant.  We are off on our own doing our own thing and it isn't leading to wins...go figure.

(12-12-2019, 09:50 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: What a dumb stat, who the cares?

There is a positive correlation between wins and homegrown players, except for us where we have the most homegrown players and we are in the bottom tier of wins...that's interesting, if nothing else.  Basically, when other teams draft and retain players they win more and when we do it we win not so much.  Theoretically, we are doing something right but it isn't leading to wins like it does with other franchises which means we are doing something very wrong.

(12-13-2019, 01:54 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Ehh, I don't know the statistical significance and t-test and all that stuff, but it looks like there is a noticeable positive correlation between the percentage of homegrown players and overall wins, to me.  We are a ridiculous outlier in the sense that we have the most homegrown players and we are very low on the win percentage scale.

That sums it up, really...we are an outlier and we and the massive amount of white space between us and the next closest team plotted on that grid is pretty significant.  We are off on our own doing our own thing and it isn't leading to wins...go figure.

Are you reading that chart correctly?  It really looks like Baltimore and Green Bay are really close, in percentage of "homegrown" players on their teams.