Get the extension done... http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001093608/article/mixon-on-possible-deal-i-want-to-be-a-bengal-for-life

People aren't going to like this but paying HB's has not worked out well for teams the last couple years. It a position that just has too short of a life span to trust paying big money. If he'd take a short deal, let's say 3 years 42 Million with 35 of it over the first two years I'd consider it.

(12-31-2019, 03:39 PM)Au165 Wrote: People aren't going to like this but paying HB's has not worked out well for teams the last couple years. It a position that just has too short of a life span to trust paying big money. If he'd take a short deal, let's say 3 years 42 Million with 35 of it over the first two years I'd consider it.

Not everyone is Peterson or Gore, but what if Mixon IS like them?

We'd have a 1,000 yard rusher at 4.0+ YPC for 7 more years.

He's super durable and doesn't have fumbling issues (the one on Sunday was the first in 2 years and he has 4 in 3), not to mention he's great at catching ball out of the backfield too.

I'd do a 5 year contract, though I'm not good with money, so not sure of amount.

No thanks.

OL + OC > RB

I fully subscribe to the "If they're not Barry Sanders-ish, they are interchangeable" RB theory. The OL and OC are much more important factors to RB success than RB talent. I didn't like the Gio contract either. Allocating large amounts of money to the RB position is just stripping money that could be spent on more important positions... unless you have Barry Sanders level of game changer.

Top 2 Rushers

2019
Derrick Henry
Nick Chubb

2018
Ezekiel Elliott
Sqquon Barkley

2017
Kareem Hunt
Todd Gurley

2016
Ezekiel Elliott
Jordan Howard

2015
Adrian Peterson
Doug Martin

2014
DeMarco Murray
Le'Veon Bell

2013
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte

2012
Adrian Peterson
Alfred Morris

2011
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ray Rice

2010
Arian Foster
Jamaal Charles

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

This decade, there have only been 2 RBs who have been on that list twice.
Adrian Peterson, who is going to be 1st ballot HoF
Ezekiel Elliott,, who is good, but got to play behind an OL with 3 All-Pros in it.

If Mixon had a Peterson start to his career, then fine, get that extension done... but he hasn't. He's not a HoFer, so I don't think they should give him a new contract. Paying RBs short of that always seems to be a mistake. Use that money on an OL instead.

Mixon is good but he is not going to get paid like Bell, Zeke, or Gurley.

The 5th highest paid RB in the league last year (based on average yearly salary) made a little over $8 million.

I wouldn't mind them locking him into an extension now while he's still on his rookie contract and maybe get a discount. 5 years maybe 10mil a year could be a steal for us in the long run while offering him security. Keep in mind that on a rookie scale you can have Joe Burrow and Mixon on contract cheaper than you had Andy Dalton so this is a great time to front-load some contracts.

(12-31-2019, 04:04 PM)Okeana Wrote: I wouldn't mind them locking him into an extension now while he's still on his rookie contract and maybe get a discount. 5 years maybe 10mil a year could be a steal for us in the long run while offering him security. Keep in mind that on a rookie scale you can have Joe Burrow and Mixon on contract cheaper than you had Andy Dalton so this is a great time to front-load some contracts.

This is what I'm talking about.

(12-31-2019, 03:43 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Not everyone is Peterson or Gore, but what if Mixon IS like them?

We'd have a 1,000 yard rusher at 4.0+ YPC for 7 more years.

He's super durable and doesn't have fumbling issues (the one on Sunday was the first in 2 years and he has 4 in 3), not to mention he's great at catching ball out of the backfield too.

I'd do a 5 year contract, though I'm not good with money, so not sure of amount.

We'd already know if he is by now. Through 3 years...

Adrian Peterson:  915 carries/4,484 yards (4.9 YPC)/40 TD  ... 3x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 2x 1st Team All-Pro
Frank Gore: 699 carries/3,405 yards (4.9 YPC)/16 TD  ... 1x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro
Joe Mixon: 693 carries/2,931 yards (4.2 YPC)/17 TD  ... Nothing

Frank Gore will end up in the HoF most likely, but he isn't the same category as Adrian Peterson. Gore is merely a guy who is good for a long time, but not a guy who is great. He is a compiler HoFer.

Also a concerning/weird stat about Mixon: He has 0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in his career. He just simply doesn't have the ability to finish a run for a TD. I don't know if it's a vision thing, or if he doesn't have that final gear, or what. 

- - - - - - -

He's played 16 games in 1 out of 3 seasons and had 0 seasons of 300+ carries, or even 280+ carries. I don't know if I would categorize that as "super durable". He's not fragile, but not super durable.

also keep in mind if we extend AJ green it will have to be for less than his current contract. His current market value is at around 10 mil according to sport trac so if we can lock him up for 2 years that still gives us 5 mil in cap a year we didn't have

(12-31-2019, 04:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: We'd already know if he is by now. Through 3 years...

Adrian Peterson:  915 carries/4,484 yards (4.9 YPC)/40 TD  ... 3x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 2x 1st Team All-Pro
Frank Gore: 699 carries/3,405 yards (4.9 YPC)/16 TD  ... 1x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro
Joe Mixon: 693 carries/2,931 yards (4.2 YPC)/17 TD  ... Nothing

Frank Gore will end up in the HoF most likely, but he isn't the same category as Adrian Peterson. Gore is merely a guy who is good for a long time, but not a guy who is great. He is a compiler HoFer.

Also a concerning/weird stat about Mixon: He has 0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in his career. He just simply doesn't have the ability to finish a run for a TD. I don't know if it's a vision thing, or if he doesn't have that final gear, or what. 

- - - - - - -

He's played 16 games in 1 out of 3 seasons and had 0 seasons of 300+ carries, or even 280+ carries. I don't know if I would categorize that as "super durable". He's not fragile, but not super durable.

These stats mean absolutely nothing because he's been behind the worst offensive line in the NFL for 2 years straight.  If you want to do some legwork got back and look at offensive line grade of Peterson and gore's teams during those 4 years you're basing it off of.  

We better draft some decent HBs if we aren't going to lock him up. After Mixon our RB room is trash.

That 2017 Draft was stacked at RB. Folks would be hard pressed to find a better one. I wanted Christian McCaffery but he went one pick before our pick. Just look at the names:

Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffery
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Alvin Kamara
Kareem Hunt
Aaron Jones
Marlon Mack

(12-31-2019, 04:10 PM)Okeana Wrote: These stats mean absolutely nothing because he's been behind the worst offensive line in the NFL for 2 years straight.  If you want to do some legwork got back and look at offensive line grade of Peterson and gore's teams during those 4 years you're basing it off of.  

I don't need to do the legwork, because that is my exact point. If you have to excuse a RB's performance because their OL wasn't good, then they're not a RB worth paying. The only RBs worth paying are ones that can transcend the lack of talent around them. Mixon is not one of those players.

There's no OL that has ever been graded enough to "allow" a RB to go for over 2,000 yards at 6.0 YPC... but Adrian Peterson did it anyway, with CHRISTIAN PONDER as his QB, coming off an ACL and MLC tear in Week 16 the season before.

They're not the same caliber of player. Don't pay sub-prime RBs.

- - - - - - - -

Plus it doesn't matter who your OL is. If you have 693 carries and 0 of them are 20+ yard TDs, that is telling something about the RB, not the blockers. You just don't have the vision or top end speed to break it.

I would be happy to pay Mixon according to how he has produced over his back-to-back 1000 yd seasons. Over the last two years he ranks

9th in rush yds/game
18th in rush tds
17th in avg. yds/car (among 32 RBs with 250 carries)

receiving ranking (among RB)
20th in receptions
22nd in yards
17th in tds
25th in avg yds/rec (among 39 RBs with at least 50 receptions)

I think he is a very good back that we could get a bargain price. His production has been stunted by our poor o-line.

(12-31-2019, 04:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't need to do the legwork, because that is my exact point. If you have to excuse a RB's performance because their OL wasn't good, then they're not a RB worth paying. The only RBs worth paying are ones that can transcend the lack of talent around them. Mixon is not one of those players.

It is ridiculous to judge RB talent without looking at the O-line.  Just compare the value of Marshawn Lynch with the Seahawks and the Bills.

How much would you pay Mixon if you were an NFL GM?

(12-31-2019, 03:43 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Not everyone is Peterson or Gore, but what if Mixon IS like them?

We'd have a 1,000 yard rusher at 4.0+ YPC for 7 more years.

He's super durable and doesn't have fumbling issues (the one on Sunday was the first in 2 years and he has 4 in 3), not to mention he's great at catching ball out of the backfield too.

I'd do a 5 year contract, though I'm not good with money, so not sure of amount.

That just isn't realistic to expect. With how easy it is to find a serviceable back spending 15 million a year, which is the new top tier pay scale, would be insane. 

(12-31-2019, 04:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: We'd already know if he is by now. Through 3 years...

Adrian Peterson:  915 carries/4,484 yards (4.9 YPC)/40 TD  ... 3x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 2x 1st Team All-Pro
Frank Gore: 699 carries/3,405 yards (4.9 YPC)/16 TD  ... 1x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro
Joe Mixon: 693 carries/2,931 yards (4.2 YPC)/17 TD  ... Nothing

Frank Gore will end up in the HoF most likely, but he isn't the same category as Adrian Peterson. Gore is merely a guy who is good for a long time, but not a guy who is great. He is a compiler HoFer.

Also a concerning/weird stat about Mixon: He has 0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in his career. He just simply doesn't have the ability to finish a run for a TD. I don't know if it's a vision thing, or if he doesn't have that final gear, or what. 

- - - - - - -

He's played 16 games in 1 out of 3 seasons and had 0 seasons of 300+ carries, or even 280+ carries. I don't know if I would categorize that as "super durable". He's not fragile, but not super durable.

Doesn't the 300 plus carry thing start to take a toll on the player rather quickly?

Running Backs to me are like closers in baseball. You should pay them if you're close as an organization to winning a championship. They're probably the most replaceable position on the field unless you have a once in a generation talent. With most running backs, by the time it's pay day, the tread is already falling off the tires. I'd rather be out one year too early than one year too late.

(12-31-2019, 03:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon is good but he is not going to get paid like Bell, Zeke, or Gurley.

The 5th highest paid RB in the league last year (based on average yearly salary) made a little over $8 million.

Paying top dollar for RBs only handcuffs the teams ability to resign players that are rarer talents than RBs are. RB is a plug and play position. There were ten RBs with more yds/ game and yds/rush in 2019.

(12-31-2019, 04:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't need to do the legwork, because that is my exact point. If you have to excuse a RB's performance because their OL wasn't good, then they're not a RB worth paying. The only RBs worth paying are ones that can transcend the lack of talent around them. Mixon is not one of those players.

There's no OL that has ever been graded enough to "allow" a RB to go for over 2,000 yards at 6.0 YPC... but Adrian Peterson did it anyway, with CHRISTIAN PONDER as his QB, coming off an ACL and MLC tear in Week 16 the season before.

They're not the same caliber of player. Don't pay sub-prime RBs.

- - - - - - - -

Plus it doesn't matter who your OL is. If you have 693 carries and 0 of them are 20+ yard TDs, that is telling something about the RB, not the blockers. You just don't have the vision or top end speed to break it.

This is not a personal attack on you, but it's pretty obvious that you need to rethink your position.