(01-12-2020, 12:37 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm discussing a draft prospect you brought up 2018 I explained the difference between 2018 LSU and 2019 LSU. This has nothing to do with Zac Taylor and the Bengals offense.

What about Burrows play on the field has you concerned about the pick? 

Everything, he has 1 year of great tape and one year of being mediocre and having every single guy who gets paid lots of money to evaluate these kids call a 4th round prospect.

If he was a 2nd or early 3rd rounder and shot up a little that would be less of a concern. But he is a 23 year old one year wonder and that is a huge gamble for a team that sucks in FA and has shot themselves in the foot so many times with the gamble on the trendy pick or picking for need. (See Ross and Ced and etc)

I get it, he looks great this year, but the huge jump in numbers just worries me a ton. Look at him in 2018, his mechanics everything (I understand if was a different offense) but he was not good in 2018, certainly not #1 pick worthy.

They change the offense, and he goes off, and yes his numbers this year are worthy of #1 but it is a 50/50 shot at what he looks like in the NFL.

50% he comes in, the team says this is the offense we have, run it. And he looks like 2018 and we pick #1 again.

50% he comes in, the team makes the correct adjustments to the offense to suit his skill set and he balls out.

Do you really want to go 50/50 on the #1 pick with these coaches, and this scouting department and this front office? 

Burrow may be great but Burrow plus this franchise in it's current state is just a disaster waiting to happen.

(01-12-2020, 12:54 AM)jason Wrote: I can't speak for him... My only concern is the small sample size of dominance. He's impressive as hell this year, but that's all there is. I know we're gonna pick him, and I want him to succeed, but missing on a QB can set a franchise back for years, and we're already pretty damn set back. Personally I like Lawrence better, but I do realize we can't just be like "We'll suck for another year, and get the first pick again.". I also realize that Lawrence has a 50/50 chance of being a bum at the next level... Just like Burrow.

This is exactly where I am at.

Everyone is just in love with this guy and he wasn't even in consideration to start the college season.

Sure, sometimes guys develop late, sometimes the scouts miss something like with Brady, but sometimes, a guy has flaws and a great coach can come in and mask those flaws with an offensive design. 

I don't see the coaches on this team who can create an offensive design to fit the player, they need a player that fits their design. 

People make way too much out of the “one year wonder” thing, imo. Maybe if Burrow wasn’t shredding some of the best defenses in college all year that would carry more weight, but the kid has proven he can beat the best of the best. Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, etc.

He’s the best QB prospect coming out this year and we need a QB. I really don’t understand why this is such a debate.

(01-12-2020, 02:30 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: This is exactly where I am at.

Everyone is just in love with this guy and he wasn't even in consideration to start the college season.

Sure, sometimes guys develop late, sometimes the scouts miss something like with Brady, but sometimes, a guy has flaws and a great coach can come in and mask those flaws with an offensive design. 

I don't see the coaches on this team who can create an offensive design to fit the player, they need a player that fits their design. 

What are his flaws in your opinion?

(01-12-2020, 02:33 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: What are his flaws in your opinion?

This season, he looks great, I will openly admit that. But once again that is my entire concern. 

One year (2018) he had accuracy issues, and mechanical issues. Also had a much lower yards per attempt in 2018 which showed less consistency on deep throws. 

As I said there is a 50% chance we get the 2019 version of Burrow and that is worth #1...

 but there is the flip side to that coin.

We get the 2018 version that struggles with accuracy and has his completion rate drop and starts to lose confidence and then we have another terrible season and another top pick after essentially wasting the previous year's pick.

This isn't a I hate Burrow, this is literally a I don't trust the one year of tape to be enough to wash away the fears of Akili Smith, especially when you are mixing a one year college QB with a very very unproven coaching staff. It's a bad combo.

It's why I'd like to trade back, beef up the lines and get a veteran guy in here to run the offense for a season, hell look what Tannehill is doing for Tennessee and he isn't even throwing for over 100 yards in either playoff game. 

(01-11-2020, 11:26 PM)jason Wrote: I'm not a Joe Burrow fanatic, but maybe this is why Nebraska has been irrelevant for 25 years or so... The guy transfers out of a top 3 recruiting class, and Nebraska doesn't want him?

I wish I could tell you, but I can't.

But it wasn't just Nebraska, most schools didn't highly recruit him. According, to Burrow he had one single offer after his Junior season.

I'll be honest I saw him play against Florida this year, and from that moment I said to myself this kid is going to be our QB if we continue to lose.

So, I've been on the Joe Burrow train since then.

Like coming out of high school most places had him as a 3 to 4 star recruit, so I decided to look at some of his high school tape.

I was blown away. So I looked up his stats, they blew me away. You realize that from the moment that he was first moved to QB that this man has two seasons under 70 percent completion as a starter?

His sophomore year in high school and his junior year at LSU. Going all the way to grade school this man was completing 70 percent of his passes.

Here are his numbers:

Sophomore: 202 of 325 for 3239 yards, 62.2 completion percentage, 10 yards an attempt, 47 TD's and 8 interceptions.

Junior: 218 of 306 for 3732 yards, 71.2 completion percentage, 12.2 yards per attempt, 47 TD's and 7 interceptions.

Senior: 250 of 346 for 4445 yards, 72.3 completion percentage, 12.8 yards per attempt, 63 TD's and 2 interceptions.

These aren’t just good numbers. These are normally elite, your automatically a 5 star recruit, numbers.

History indicates two things: First, is that most high level offenses, at any level, almost always have QBs with high (> 63%) completion percentages in today's game. 

Second, high school completion percentages of most QBs are within 2-3 percentage points of their completion percentage in college.

While Burrow didn't start any games at Ohio State, he did throw 39 passes in mop-up duty, I know you have to take that for what it is, at Ohio State and he completed 74.4 percent of those passes with a QB rating of 153.1.

So statically speaking that is what history says his completion percentage should of been in.

So at that point I'm stumped, so I started looking at his athleticism. Maybe they thought he was slow and weak.

Well, he ran fairly good in high school, as he ran for 642, 589 and 836 yards respectively. It is reported he can ran in the 4.7's. Which puts him in the same category, 40 yard dash wise, as Aaron Rodgers.

His numbers weren't just a product of a bunch of dump-offs, as he averaged nearly 13 yards per attempt his senior year. This is someone who is throwing the ball down the field and throwing it down the field a lot.

So, again I was stumped.

Why was Tua Tagovailoa one of the 5 highest graded QBS coming out of high school in the last decade and not Burrow? I couldn't tell you.

He was 187 of 298 for 2932 yards, 62.8 completion percentage, 24 TD's and 7 interceptions his last year according to MaxPreps. It was harder for me to find his high school stats and multiple reports listed slightly altered stats.

He had 481 yards rushing, ran a confirmed 4.9 out of high school. Has since improved it to 4.76 and 4.81 at Alabama, pre injury.

Truth be told, I can't tell you why people didn't believe in Joe Burrow being elite.

But I can almost guarantee you, that if you go to ESPN, FOX Sports, ect your going to see people say that Burrow isn't good enough or was just some one year product of elite out of nowhere coaching.

Or you can go to YouTube and listen to people say only the Bengals are capable of ruining Joe Burrow.

People that ignore the fact that Burrow only had 2 weeks to work with LSU's offense before the start of his JR season and that his wr's were one of the worst ranked units in all of college his JR year for dropped passes.

Or people that don't like him because he can't throw 85 yards off his knees like Jamarcus Russell.

I tell can you this, it wasn't just Nebraska that said very bluntly to Joe Burrow that he simply "wasn't good enough to be a quarterback."

(01-11-2020, 02:42 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If they contact Burrow, they better contact Brady from LSU as well. If you are dead set on drafting him better bring the guy that made him a 1st rounder from a 4th round prospect.

YUP!!!!!! 100% AGREE!!! Tua is the better QB imo

(01-12-2020, 02:32 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: People make way too much out of the “one year wonder” thing, imo. Maybe if Burrow wasn’t shredding some of the best defenses in college all year that would carry more weight, but the kid has proven he can beat the best of the best. Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, etc.

He’s the best QB prospect coming out this year and we need a QB. I really don’t understand why this is such a debate.

I'm with you Nicomo, it's really not that difficult.  It's time for us to pick our next franchise QB.  We have the #1 pick so are afforded the luxury of taking the best QB prospect available. That happens to be Joe Burrow this year. 

If Tua did not have injury history the debate makes sense.  He does so it's a no-brainer.  

Maybe Tua has a relatively injury free career and becomes a great NFL QB.  If if's and buts were......you know the saying.  I'm not taking that chance if I own the NFL team making the pick.

Whoever it was who said "If the Bengals dont draft Joe Burrow they should be forced into the XFL". I pretty much agree with that.

(01-11-2020, 11:26 PM)jason Wrote: I'm not a Joe Burrow fanatic, but maybe this is why Nebraska has been irrelevant for 25 years or so... The guy transfers out of a top 3 recruiting class, and Nebraska doesn't want him?

I haven't followed his career, but I believe I read that he just wasn't that good, which is why he didn't start at OSU. He has steadily worked with throwing coaches and improved himself over the years to make himself into what he is now. I actually like the fact that he wasn't always great, and worked with throwing coaches to make himself better. That means he probably has not hit his ceiling yet and will continue to improve.

(01-12-2020, 11:36 AM)Nati#1 Wrote: YUP!!!!!! 100% AGREE!!! Tua is the better QB imo

Yeah to bad he’s injured all the time. Having NFL caliber players at every single position helps as well. LSU is quite there yet.

Tua is probably never going to be a mobile as he was. I foresee his career being more in a backup role for someone than a star starter.

(01-12-2020, 01:20 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I haven't followed his career, but I believe I read that he just wasn't that good, which is why he didn't start at OSU. He has steadily worked with throwing coaches and improved himself over the years to make himself into what he is now. I actually like the fact that he wasn't always great, and worked with throwing coaches to make himself better. That means he probably has not hit his ceiling yet and will continue to improve.

I definitely remember Urban Meyer saying he threw like a girl.

(01-12-2020, 02:22 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Everything, he has 1 year of great tape and one year of being mediocre and having every single guy who gets paid lots of money to evaluate these kids call a 4th round prospect.

If he was a 2nd or early 3rd rounder and shot up a little that would be less of a concern. But he is a 23 year old one year wonder and that is a huge gamble for a team that sucks in FA and has shot themselves in the foot so many times with the gamble on the trendy pick or picking for need. (See Ross and Ced and etc)

I get it, he looks great this year, but the huge jump in numbers just worries me a ton. Look at him in 2018, his mechanics everything (I understand if was a different offense) but he was not good in 2018, certainly not #1 pick worthy.

They change the offense, and he goes off, and yes his numbers this year are worthy of #1 but it is a 50/50 shot at what he looks like in the NFL.

50% he comes in, the team says this is the offense we have, run it. And he looks like 2018 and we pick #1 again.

50% he comes in, the team makes the correct adjustments to the offense to suit his skill set and he balls out.

Do you really want to go 50/50 on the #1 pick with these coaches, and this scouting department and this front office? 

Burrow may be great but Burrow plus this franchise in it's current state is just a disaster waiting to happen.

50/50 is the best you’re going to get with a first round pick.

(01-12-2020, 01:35 PM)jason Wrote: I definitely remember Urban Meyer saying he threw like a girl.

I like Urban Meyer (except for the lying) and I’m an Ohio State fan, but I’m not a fan of his system QBs that have shown little success in the NFL. He’s not a great judge of QBs in my opinion.

(01-12-2020, 02:42 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: This isn't a I hate Burrow, this is literally a I don't trust the one year of tape to be enough to wash away the fears of Akili Smith, especially when you are mixing a one year college QB with a very very unproven coaching staff. It's a bad combo.

It's why I'd like to trade back, beef up the lines and get a veteran guy in here to run the offense for a season, hell look what Tannehill is doing for Tennessee and he isn't even throwing for over 100 yards in either playoff game. 

Gotta agree with Lance on this. There's no real comparison between the two, at least IMO.

College career
Akili: Pac-10/Oregon
571 attempts, 56%, 45 TD, 15 INT

Burrow: Big10/SEC
896 attempts, 69%, 73 TD, 11 INT

Can't we stop with this comparison? Please. #Bengals

— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) January 12, 2020

 

Do posters know that after the UCF game Burrow went to work on his arm talent? Like ge knew his arm was raw and needed work but if you pay attention to the tape he was making completions in tight windows? He was also making the right reads on a lot of his passes, he just lacked the accuracy to put some of his balls in the right spot.

Well, he's definitely not lacking confidence.

Joe Burrow makes Jimmy Garoppolo look like he's shy in front of the cameras pic.twitter.com/qGdIe4Mnkw

— Matthew McGovern (@MatthewMcGovern) January 11, 2020

(01-12-2020, 02:43 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: 50/50 is the best you’re going to get with a first round pick.

Most #1 overalls are supposed to be better than 50/50. 

1st rounder sure, but the #1 guy is supposed to be a lock with better odds.

(01-12-2020, 03:34 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Gotta agree with Lance on this. There's no real comparison between the two, at least IMO.

College career
Akili: Pac-10/Oregon
571 attempts, 56%, 45 TD, 15 INT

Burrow: Big10/SEC
896 attempts, 69%, 73 TD, 11 INT

Can't we stop with this comparison? Please. #Bengals

— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) January 12, 2020

 

They also played in different eras of the game so of course the numbers are going to be different. 

It isn't a numbers thing that makes the comparison it is one year of college production translating to a 1st round pick by a franchise that can NOT afford to miss again.