To all of those talking trade down, build the team, take this guy, do this and that, instead of taking Joe Burrow.

Here's a list of Super Bowl winning Qb's since 1994. Only reason I stopped there was the point has been made over and over !

1994 Steve Young
1995 Troy Aikman
1996 Brett Favre
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
1999 Kurt Warner
2000 Trent Dilfer*
2001 Tom Brady
2002 Brad Johnson*
2003 Tom Brady
2004 Tom Brady
2005 Ben Rothlisberger
2006 Peyton Manning
2007 Eli Manning
2008 Ben Rothlisberger
2009 Drew Brees
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2011 Eli Manning
2012 Joe Flacco*
2013 Russell Wilson
2014 Tom Brady
2015 Peyton Manning
2016 Tom Brady
2017 Nick Foles*
2018 Tom Brady
2019 Patrick Mahomes

Of the last 26 Super Bowls 22 of them have been won by elite and/or very top tier QB's for the time. Sure there's the occasional outliers (Dilfer, Johnson, Foles, Flacco) and others going back further, I'm sure. You can argue Eli isn't this, that team had a great defense (2013 Seahawks) and other points.

But the fact remains it's very much a QB driven league as far as who the SB winners are and even who's really in the hunt. The same names show up time and again late in the playoffs, Brady, Manning's, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rothlisberger, lately Mahomes.

You simply can't pass on this opportunity to have one who may well be the next to enter this class !

QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too? Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

(02-12-2020, 04:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too?  Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

Oh there's little doubt most if not all of the winners have been ran better than our's. But like you say Burrow is just a no brainer. Who can guess when an opportunity like this comes along again ?

You just can't bank on "building the team" and hoping a great QB falls in our lap in round 4 two or three years from now.

(02-12-2020, 04:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Oh there's little doubt most if not all of the winners have been ran better than our's. But like you say Burrow is just a no brainer. Who can guess when an opportunity like this comes along again ?

You just can't bank on "building the team" and hoping a great QB falls in our lap in round 4 two or three years from now.

I wouldn't trust MB to build this team with any sort of haul.  

(02-12-2020, 04:37 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: You just can't bank on "building the team" and hoping a great QB falls in our lap in round 4 two or three years from now.

Why do you think the only options for drafting a QB are the #1 pick or a 4th round pick?  It is possible to trade down and still take a QB in the first round.

Over the last 20 years there have been 16 QBs taken with the #1 pick.  Not a single one of those 16 not named "Manning" won a Super Bowl.  Only 2 others have even made it to a Super Bowl (Newton, Goff).

In fact of the 41 QBs taken in the first 10 picks of the draft over the last 20 years only 3 have won a Super Bowl. (Mannings plus Mahomes).

No one is denying that the NFL is a QB driven league.  Some people just realize that not every QB rated high in the draft is really that great.  And if Burrow really was the most talented QB prospect in a decade he would have looked a lot better in 2018.  The best QB prospects draw attention with their skills even when they don't have the best talent around them.  Palmer played for a 6-6 USC team in 2001 but was still considered the best QB prospect in the nation entering his senior season.  Mahomes was drafted #10 despite playing for a 5-7 Texas Tech team his senior season.

**EDIT**  I still think we take Burrow #1 and I am fine with that.  Just explaining that it is not as cut and dried as some people seem to think.  Burrow only had one great season and it was in his 5th year of college following a very underwhelming 4th year.

QB is the most important position in all of sports.

Well done BF74, great job looking up all the Superbowl winning QB's, quite the list.

Sure there is a Trent Dilfer in there but like you said, he had a great Defense which made it possible.

You don't pass up a player like Burrow right when you have the first overall pick and need a new QB.

Dalton has proven what he can do which is decent but he doesn't play well in big games.

Burrow just proven last year that he can play great against great competition. This is what we need.

Tua is hurt and is the only QB that is even comparable in this Draft and Tua doesn't have a strong arm either.

Burrow has a stronger arm than Tua as well from what I have seen and that has been the only knock on Burrow.

I'm all-in on Burrow, but I can defend the media narrative that we are going to "ruin" him because I look at this list and see a bunch of elite QBs but I also see the following:

QBs taken first off the board who won the SB for the team that drafted them
1995 Troy Aikman
2006 Peyton Manning

So, maybe I'm making up too many categories, but there have been 2 QBs on that list who were the first QBs taken and that won with the team that took them.  Burrow will fall into this category.


QBs who won with the team that drafted them, but were not the first QB off the board
2005 Ben Rothlisberger
2008 Ben Rothlisberger
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2012 Joe Flacco
2013 Russell Wilson
2019 Patrick Mahomes

This is just a simple case of QBs taken first tend to go to teams that can't get their crap together.  Ben was taken 3rd behind Rivers and Eli who were both worthy picks, Rodgers was taken 23 slots below Alex Smith and 1 slot above Jason Campbell, Flacco was taken behind Matt Ryan but people seem to consider Flacco winning the SB as more of an outlier, Wilson was taken in the 3rd round behind 5 QBs who all had underwhelming and/or injury-shortened careers, and Mahommes has to be glad he landed in KC instead of going in the top #2 to Chicago.

QBs who won with teams that didn't draft them
1994 Steve Young
1996 Brett Favre
2009 Drew Brees
2015 Peyton Manning

Young and Favre were traded to better organizations after the ones that took them deemed them to be busts and Manning and Brees were both considered to be possibly too injured to build around.  Well, 2015 Peyton Manning stunk, but he had some really good years in Denver where he didn't win the SB so I guess the universe balances out.


QBs who won SBs after refusing to play for the team that drafted them
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
2007 Eli Manning
2011 Eli Manning

These guys pulled the ultimate d-bag move and were apparently right to do it.  Ouch.  At least the Chargers got Rivers instead of getting an ultra-bust in Art Schlicter like the Colts did.


Wacky outliers
1999 Kurt Warner
2000 Trent Dilfer
2001 Tom Brady
2002 Brad Johnson
2003 Tom Brady
2004 Tom Brady
2014 Tom Brady
2016 Tom Brady
2017 Nick Foles
2018 Tom Brady

Well, no one saw this stuff coming.



So again, I hope we take Burrow, but a guy being taken first off the board doesn't exactly have a great track record for winning a SB for the team that takes him.  That is why I can see the media taking jabs at the Bengals and Mike Brown and postulating that Burrow might have a rough time here.  The past 25 or so years have shown that he'd have a better chance winning it all if he didn't go 1st overall to us.  

(02-12-2020, 05:41 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm all-in on Burrow, but I can defend the media narrative that we are going to "ruin" him because I look at this list and see a bunch of elite QBs but I also see the following:

QBs taken first off the board who won the SB for the team that drafted them
1995 Troy Aikman
2006 Peyton Manning

So, maybe I'm making up too many categories, but there have been 2 QBs on that list who were the first QBs taken and that won with the team that took them.  Burrow will fall into this category.


QBs who won with the team that drafted them, but were not the first QB off the board
2005 Ben Rothlisberger
2008 Ben Rothlisberger
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2012 Joe Flacco
2013 Russell Wilson
2019 Patrick Mahomes

This is just a simple case of QBs taken first tend to go to teams that can't get their crap together.  Ben was taken 3rd behind Rivers and Eli who were both worthy picks, Rodgers was taken 23 slots below Alex Smith and 1 slot above Jason Campbell, Flacco was taken behind Matt Ryan but people seem to consider Flacco winning the SB as more of an outlier, Wilson was taken in the 3rd round behind 5 QBs who all had underwhelming and/or injury-shortened careers, and Mahommes has to be glad he landed in KC instead of going in the top #2 to Chicago.

QBs who won with teams that didn't draft them
1994 Steve Young
1996 Brett Favre
2009 Drew Brees
2015 Peyton Manning

Young and Favre were traded to better organizations after the ones that took them deemed them to be busts and Manning and Brees were both considered to be possibly too injured to build around.  Well, 2015 Peyton Manning stunk, but he had some really good years in Denver where he didn't win the SB so I guess the universe balances out.


QBs who won SBs after refusing to play for the team that drafted them
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
2007 Eli Manning
2011 Eli Manning

These guys pulled the ultimate d-bag move and were apparently right to do it.  Ouch.  At least the Chargers got Rivers instead of getting an ultra-bust in Art Schlicter like the Colts did.


Wacky outliers
1999 Kurt Warner
2000 Trent Dilfer
2001 Tom Brady
2002 Brad Johnson
2003 Tom Brady
2004 Tom Brady
2014 Tom Brady
2016 Tom Brady
2017 Nick Foles
2018 Tom Brady

Well, no one saw this stuff coming.



So again, I hope we take Burrow, but a guy being taken first off the board doesn't exactly have a great track record for winning a SB for the team that takes him.  That is why I can see the media taking jabs at the Bengals and Mike Brown and postulating that Burrow might have a rough time here.  The past 25 or so years have shown that he'd have a better chance winning it all if he didn't go 1st overall to us.  

You missed a big one here....Steve Young was going to be drafted by the Bengals and went to the Express of the USFL.....He would fit in 2 categories for you and has the BUNGLE connection.

(02-12-2020, 07:20 PM)spazz70 Wrote: You missed a big one here....Steve Young was going to be drafted by the Bengals and went to the Express of the USFL.....He would fit in 2 categories for you and has the BUNGLE connection.

I did not know that...guess we did OK with Anderson and Esiason at least.  The Colts going from being snubbed by Elway to drafting Art Schlicter has got to be the biggest kick in the arse of all, though.

(02-12-2020, 03:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: You simply can't pass on this opportunity to have one who may well be the next to enter this class !

With many of those you listed not being the first QB taken in the draft, one could question themselves about the pick. But, I guess the real question is this: Is there anyone close enough to Burrow to consider trading down and getting that franchise QB? Knowing our luck, we would get a QB that would get beat in the playoffs by Burrow. 

Ben, Eli, Aikmen, are only considered elite because they were on the teams that won the Superbowl. There are good QBs but none of them were ever the reason why their respective teams won the Superbowl.
Peyton in 2015 was a shell of himself and Elway was a supporting actor towards Terrell Davis leading man in the late 90s.
During the first Patriot dynasty Brady wasn't the key to their Championships and like wise with Russell Wilson in Seattle.

(02-12-2020, 07:59 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: With many of those you listed not being the first QB taken in the draft, one could question themselves about the pick. But, I guess the real question is this: Is there anyone close enough to Burrow to consider trading down and getting that franchise QB? Knowing our luck, we would get a QB that would get beat in the playoffs by Burrow. 

That would be so....bad if we took Herbert or whoever and we won some 1pm games on Sunday and choked in the playoffs while Burrow went on to several deep playoff runs, 3 Super Bowls, several MVP's etc.

(02-12-2020, 08:23 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: That would be so....bad if we took Herbert or whoever and we won some 1pm games on Sunday and choked in the playoffs while Burrow went on to several deep playoff runs, 3 Super Bowls, several MVP's etc.

That is exactly what I see happening if we traded back and took Herbert, just like Dalton.

We all have seen Quarterbacks taken as #1 overall picks,or first round picks which didn’t pan out.Keep in mind that burrow had extreme talent all around him.He’s also a one year wonder.It’s really hard to hit the jackpot on a quarterback,regardless of how well he played at the college level.It’s very high risk.Maybe even has to be a little luck involved.But,,,,sometimes you just have to pull the trigger and hope for the best.

(02-12-2020, 04:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too?  Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

Yeah, that was my take from it.

Then there are those can't miss QBs being taken high who never sniffed a SB.

Organization leadership trumps everything else. Sadly, this team has to overcome that organizational cement shoe to succeed. So far only Marvin Lewis was able to even come respectably close since Mike Brown gained control of the team. All other coaching staffs have failed miserably.

 

(02-12-2020, 08:45 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: We all have seen Quarterbacks taken as #1 overall picks,or first round picks which didn’t pan out.Keep in mind that burrow had extreme talent all around him.He’s also a one year wonder.It’s really hard to hit the jackpot on a quarterback,regardless of how well he played at the college level.It’s very high risk.Maybe even has to be a little luck involved.But,,,,sometimes you just have to pull the trigger and hope for the best.

Tua had more extreme talent around him, performed worse last year, is injured and has a weaker arm.

Go with Burrow, he is just coming into his own. He is 23, so he has experience, he watches film like crazy, is extremely smart,
great accuracy, knows how to throw Receivers open, has great pocket awareness, had a worse O-line than Tua, is not hurt and
we won't get the chance to take the best QB in the Draft again for a long time considering history.

Least risky pick in the first round we have had since we took AJ Green IMHO.

Some of you are really overthinking this. Who cares if most of the QB’s were taken 1st, 3rd, or whenever? You don’t pass on a guy like Burrow because not many #1’s have won SB’s. Just because teams stupidly passed on all of those HoF/Elite guys doesn’t mean we should make the same mistake.

(02-12-2020, 10:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Some of you are really overthinking this. Who cares if most of the QB’s were taken 1st, 3rd, or whenever? You don’t don’t pass on a guy like Burrow because not many #1’s have won SB’s. Just because teams stupidly passed on all of those HoF/Elite guy doesn’t mean we should make the same mistake.

Yep

I've never understood the whole argument about #1's. I have no desire to research this but how many QB's have been taken at #1 all time ? #2. #27, 2nd round #38 and so on ?

If someone did and the most SB wins were QB's after say 2nd round pick #35 how many teams are gonna start waiting until then to take a QB ?

(02-12-2020, 08:23 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: That would be so....bad if we took Herbert or whoever and we won some 1pm games on Sunday and choked in the playoffs while Burrow went on to several deep playoff runs, 3 Super Bowls, several MVP's etc.

If Burrow goes to a franchise that has its act together I'm almost certain he'd make us look like even bigger morons than we already do.  Doesn't mean he'd drag MB to the SB, but you know what I mean.

(02-12-2020, 10:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

I've never understood the whole argument about #1's. I have no desire to research this but how many QB's have been taken at #1 all time ? #2. #27, 2nd round #38 and so on ?

If someone did and the most SB wins were QB's after say 2nd round pick #35 how many teams are gonna start waiting until then to take a QB ?

Well, when I look at this list (and in all fairness, Aikman won 3 SBs and 2 were before this supplied list started) I see that getting the 1st QB off the board matters less than the competency of the organization as a whole.  Basically, a good NFL franchise is more likely to win the SB with the 2nd or later QB in a given draft class than a lousy organization is to win with the cream of the crop.

Only twice in the past 25 years has a team won a SB by drafting the first QB taken off the board.  This should, one would think, send a message to Mike Brown that his third time getting the top QB in the draft to build around should be handled in a different way, but alas I doubt he will get the message or even care if he does.  

So there you have it.  Hey Mike Brown, you have the chance to get the best QB in a long time and history has shown that you're much more likely to win if you run the franchise in the right way so why not hedge your bets and combine Burrow with a winning organizational approach?  Why not, indeed.

I just don't want to see Burrow lumped in with all the other 1st QBs taken who apparently didn't know how to win once they were magically taken by the lousy teams drafting 1st overall.  Funny how the 2nd and later QBs off the board don't become losers once they get drafted, you think someone would look for the real underlying issue here, eh?

So how many of those SB-winning QBs were Heisman Trophy winners?