If you guys would be willing, I had a mock draft (in the appropriate forum) where I actually didn't select Burrow. Let me explain: It was on the first-pick website and I received an offer from Jacksonville that I am thinking would be too hard to pass up. If you would go over to the NFL draft board, under Mock Drafts: SHracerX Bully no Burrow draft.

I would love to get an idea what the board would do in such a situation.

Thanks in advance.

I'd still pass. Miami giving us three 1sts and next years first I'd still pass

I think Miami is the only team that has the type of draft capital that it'd take for me. I'd probably do it for their first 5 picks in the draft this year. So...

1st

for

5th
18th
26th
39th
56th

- - - - - - - - -

Between the cap space for FA and then having 6 picks in the Top 56 you could, in one offseason, build a team that is a SB contender for at least the next 4-5 years.

It probably would have taken a bit less from the Dolphins if they had managed to get the 2nd overall pick instead of the 5th. I feel like if you're not going to get Burrow OR Young, then you need a big haul.


*Refuses to go to the Mock area.*

(03-07-2020, 07:58 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think Miami is the only team that has the type of draft capital that it'd take for me. I'd probably do it for their first 5 picks in the draft this year. So...

1st

for

5th
18th
26th
39th
56th

- - - - - - - - -

Between the cap space for FA and then having 6 picks in the Top 56 you could, in one offseason, build a team that is a SB contender for at least the next 4-5 years.

It probably would have taken a bit less from the Dolphins if they had managed to get the 2nd overall pick instead of the 5th. I feel like if you're not going to get Burrow OR Young, then you need a big haul.

That’s if you hit on most of them, which is very unlikely.

(03-07-2020, 08:01 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s if you hit on most of them, which is very unlikely.

More likely than Joe Burrow becoming an all time great franchise QB.

Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Brafford
Matthew Stafford
JaMarcus Russell
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick

Those are all the 1st overall pick QBs since 2000. Knowing what you know now about all of them, is there any you wouldn't trade for picks 5, 18, 26, 39, and 56 in this draft?

I think Burrow will do fine, but odds stacked heavily against him that he won't do better than the 5 dolphins picks combined.

(03-07-2020, 08:05 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: More likely than Joe Burrow becoming an all time great franchise QB.

Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Brafford
Matthew Stafford
JaMarcus Russell
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick

Those are all the 1st overall pick QBs since 2000. Knowing what you know now about all of them, is there any you wouldn't trade for picks 5, 18, 26, 39, and 56 in this draft?

I think Burrow will do fine, but odds stacked heavily against him that he won't do better than the 5 dolphins picks combined.

I’d trade all the picks in the world to have a QB accomplish what Eli did.

(03-07-2020, 08:55 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’d trade all the picks in the world to have a QB accomplish what Eli did.

What "Eli did" was what the entire team did, from FO, to coaches, to 53 players. 

Unless you somehow truly believe that if you put rookie Eli Manning on this team he would win two SBs.

I mean, hell... in 2007 they had the 4th ranked rush offense, 7th ranked defense, and the 21st ranked passing offense. Eli Manning's defining pass from that season? Lobbing up a jump ball into triple coverage that his WR just wanted more.

(03-07-2020, 08:05 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: More likely than Joe Burrow becoming an all time great franchise QB.

Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Brafford
Matthew Stafford
JaMarcus Russell
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick

Those are all the 1st overall pick QBs since 2000. Knowing what you know now about all of them, is there any you wouldn't trade for picks 5, 18, 26, 39, and 56 in this draft?

I think Burrow will do fine, but odds stacked heavily against him that he won't do better than the 5 dolphins picks combined.

Funny isn't it? 

Even though the "odds" of hitting at QB at #1OA is poor... in 20 years of #1OA picks 14 of them were QBs and in all of draft history only around 10 times has the #1OA pick been traded for more picks.


Edit: Come to think of it...without even doing research I'd bet the most successful team in 20 years the Patriots is likely in the bottom 5 of teams with the amount of top 50 picks.

Call me crazy but it would take a draft cancellation to keep me from drafting Burrow.

(03-07-2020, 09:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What "Eli did" was what the entire team did, from FO, to coaches, to 53 players. 

Unless you somehow truly believe that if you put rookie Eli Manning on this team he would win two SBs.

I mean, hell... in 2007 they had the 4th ranked rush offense, 7th ranked defense, and the 21st ranked passing offense. Eli Manning's defining pass from that season? Lobbing up a jump ball into triple coverage that his WR just wanted more.

Ofc I don’t think rookie Eli would win a Super Bowl here. Or anywhere. You don’t draft a QB for only 4-5 years though. You draft him hoping he’s your guy for the next decade +.

And to say all he did was just throw up a jump ball is selling him short. The Giants DL was nasty both times, but Eli was also clutch. Hence 2 Super Bowl MVP’s. The second SB against NE he completed 75% of his passes, and had a 103.7 rating even though he was sacked 3 times.

(03-08-2020, 01:21 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Ofc I don’t think rookie Eli would win a Super Bowl here. Or anywhere. You don’t draft a QB for only 4-5 years though. You draft him hoping he’s your guy for the next decade +.

And to say all he did was just throw up a jump ball is selling him short. The Giants DL was nasty both times, but Eli was also clutch. Hence 2 Super Bowl MVP’s. The second SB against NE he completed 75% of his passes, and had a 103.7 rating even though he was sacked 3 times.

But Eli overall had a very pedestrian career.

60.3% Completion
7.0 YPA
1.5 TD/1 INT Ratio
84.1 QB Rating

If you had to stat out what the bare statistical necessities are for you to be content (but not happy) with your QB, that would be Eli Manning's career.

He just got lucky where he ended up, because as we saw... Rivers went to where Manning was supposed to go, was a better quarterback, and didn't win any SB. He goes somewhere else and he's a worse Andy Dalton.

Think about this just for a second now. If a team is willing to trade their 3 first round picks, don’t you think it would be that a wise choice to take that pick which others are coveting? It just speaks to the value people are placing on him and anyone would be a fool to pass on him.

(03-08-2020, 02:08 AM)thompson19osu Wrote: Think about this just for a second now. If a team is willing to trade their 3 first round picks, don’t you think it would be that a wise choice to take that pick which others are coveting? It just speaks to the value people are placing on him and anyone would be a fool to pass on him.

This was a fun exercise!

I took an updated 2 round draft off of NFL.Com and just took the players available at those slots.

#5-Becton-LT
#18-Kinlaw-DT
#26-Yetur Matos-DE
#33-Denzel Mims-WR
#39-Grant Delpit-S
#56-Malik Harrison-LB (Adam Trautman was there too for TE, but we need LBs more)Lol

So, the Defense gets the huge infusion it needs with also suring up the OL and another WR. (Btw, Justin Jefferson was also available at #33 but I took Mims, the player he had us taking. Personally, I'd take Jefferson and Delpit back to back off that LSU squad).

But, guess what? Who's our QB? I guess we keep Dalton for another Year.

Who would be happy with this group of players over Burrow and 2 others from our 2nd and 3rd round? (I hope we trade down in Rd 2 though for another pick/s).  

(03-07-2020, 07:58 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think Miami is the only team that has the type of draft capital that it'd take for me. I'd probably do it for their first 5 picks in the draft this year.  So...

1st

for

5th
18th
26th
39th
56th

- - - - - - - - -

Between the cap space for FA and then having 6 picks in the Top 56 you could, in one offseason, build a team that is a SB contender for at least the next 4-5 years.

It probably would have taken a bit less from the Dolphins if they had managed to get the 2nd overall pick instead of the 5th. I feel like if you're not going to get Burrow OR Young, then you need a big haul.


*Refuses to go to the Mock area.*

(03-07-2020, 08:01 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s if you hit on most of them, which is very unlikely.

Yeah, I mean, statistically, you'd get a couple starters out of that, and probably one solid player who stays injured.

I get that there's no guarantee on Burrow any more than anyone else, but at the end of the day if he's what he appears to be he's: a QB with a good arm, decent leadership skills, a desire to win, no real injury history, and makes good reads. 

Something to keep in mind; if we get something like 5 first round picks, that also means we have 5 first round contracts to pay and also 5 roster sports invested. Obviously that's 5 holes filled but you gotta weigh out what you are actually doing. And even if they all pan out, that's 5 huge free agents that we won't be able to afford in 5 years. Joe Burrow is 1 franchise QB on 1 contract taking up 1 roster spot.

(03-08-2020, 02:42 AM)Benton Wrote: Yeah, I mean, statistically, you'd get a couple starters out of that, and probably one solid player who stays injured.

I get that there's no guarantee on Burrow any more than anyone else, but at the end of the day if he's what he appears to be he's: a QB with a good arm, decent leadership skills, a desire to win, no real injury history, and makes good reads. 

Obviously it would depend on scouting and need, but for example, the 5th, 18th, 26th, 39th, and 56th picks would get you  (* = Pro Bowler)...

2010: Eric Berry*, Maurkice Pouncey*, Dan Williams, Arrelious Benn, Mike Neal
2011: Patrick Peterson*, Corey Liguet, Jonathan Baldwin, Akeem Ayers, Shane Vereen
2012: Justin Blackmon, Melvin Ingram*, Whitney Mercilus, Janoris Jenkins*, Mike Adams
2013: Ezekiel Ansah*, Eric Reid*, Datone Jones, Geno Smith, Arthur Brown
2014: Khalil Mack*, Calvin Pryor, Marcuss Smith, Marqise Lee, Cody Latimer
2015: Brandon Scherff*, Marcus Peters*, Breshad Perriman, Eddie Goldman, Senquez Golson
2016: Jalen Ramsey*, Ryan Kelly*, Paxton Lynch, Noah Spence, Cody Whitehair*


Those are the players drafted in those specific picks last decade. I stopped at 2016, because that would mean they all have at least 4 years of NFL experience, which is the base rookie contract length.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
So statistically, you'd ACTUALLY get 2 Pro Bowlers (1 of which is likely an All-Pro), 1 or 2 players who are okay, and 1 or 2 busts (based on if there's 1 or 2 okay players).

(03-07-2020, 07:58 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think Miami is the only team that has the type of draft capital that it'd take for me. I'd probably do it for their first 5 picks in the draft this year.  So...

1st

for

5th
18th
26th
39th
56th

- - - - - - - - -

Between the cap space for FA and then having 6 picks in the Top 56 you could, in one offseason, build a team that is a SB contender for at least the next 4-5 years.

It probably would have taken a bit less from the Dolphins if they had managed to get the 2nd overall pick instead of the 5th. I feel like if you're not going to get Burrow OR Young, then you need a big haul.


*Refuses to go to the Mock area.*

The New Dey Bengals drafted a blocking TE in the 2nd round last year...I don't trust them to use that many draft picks wisely.

(03-08-2020, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The New Dey Bengals drafted a blocking TE in the 2nd round last year...I don't trust them to use that many draft picks wisely.

Need to start looking for Clark Harris's replacement in the 2nd round this year...

(03-08-2020, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The New Dey Bengals drafted a blocking TE in the 2nd round last year...I don't trust them to use that many draft picks wisely.

/thread

(03-08-2020, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The New Dey Bengals drafted a blocking TE in the 2nd round last year...I don't trust them to use that many draft picks wisely.

They also drafted Boyd, Mixon, and Bates three years in a row in the 2nd RD.