They use the stat WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the first four years of the players career so that is why they cut off at '16.
The math is way to complicated to go into, but basically they calculated a value for each pick (expected WAR) in the draft and then looked at the "actual WAR" of each specific player selected. I am not that familiar with WAR, but for some reason the WAR for QBs in naturally much higher for good QBs than any other position player. So they excluded QBs. That means we get no credit for drafting Dalton in the second round. Based on this formula the Bengals ranked 9th in the league in "WAR Over Expected".
Once they calculated "WAR Over Expected" they saw that this measurement was influenced too much by one great player found in later rounds. For example the Seahawks were ranked second over that ten year period, but if you remove just one player (5th round pick Richard Sherman) they would be middle of the pack. So they did a second calculation to determine "how often teams managed to find a player who ended up in a given percentile of his distribution of outcomes." I have no idea what that means but they say it would measure consistency and would diminish the impact of any one huge outlier. It also allowed them to include QBs in the formula. Based on this new formula for draft "consistency" the Bengals ranked 7th.
Then they decided that success in the early round was more important than success in later rounds. This makes since because it does not take a lot of production to exceed the projected WAR for a 7th round pick because the bar is set much lower than for 1st round picks. To account for this they did exactly what I would have done and built "a model that regresses the draft success as measured by WAR over expected against the consistent draft success in different rounds, and put the success of each team back into this regression." After this final calculation the Bengals ranked 11th. That makes since when you look at their list of top 5 biggest hits "by percentile" in the AFC North. The Bengals have three of the five with 7th rounder Nedu Ndukwe, and 5th rounders George Iloka and Marvin Jones.
At #11 the Bengals drafted better than any team in the AFC North, and according to their calculations the Steelers drafted very poorly (19th). Browns were dead last in the league because they had more "draft capital" (high picks) than any other team but still did not find much talent.
They also included a few notes about the drafts since 2016. Auden Tate was in the top five biggest hits "by percentile", but in biggest misses in "WAR Over Expected" we had both number 2 (Price) and 3 (Ross). Bengals currently rank 30th in drafting over the last three years. Since the '15 draft was obviously one of the worst in the league that means we have to be near the bottom over the last 5 years despite having a decent draft in '16 (Jackson, Boyd, Vigil, Billings, Fejedelem).
We have to get back to drafting better if we are going to have any extended success.
(03-09-2020, 06:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: They use the stat WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the first four years of the players career so that is why they cut off at '16.
The math is way to complicated to go into, but basically they calculated a value for each pick (expected WAR) in the draft and then looked at the "actual WAR" of each specific player selected. I am not that familiar with WAR, but for some reason the WAR for QBs in naturally much higher for good QBs than any other position player. So they excluded QBs. That means we get no credit for drafting Dalton in the second round. Based on this formula the Bengals ranked 9th in the league in "WAR Over Expected".
Once they calculated "WAR Over Expected" they saw that this measurement was influenced too much by one great player found in later rounds. For example the Seahawks were ranked second over that ten year period, but if you remove just one player (5th round pick Richard Sherman) they would be middle of the pack. So they did a second calculation to determine "how often teams managed to find a player who ended up in a given percentile of his distribution of outcomes." I have no idea what that means but they say it would measure consistency and would diminish the impact of any one huge outlier. It also allowed them to include QBs in the formula. Based on this new formula for draft "consistency" the Bengals ranked 7th.
Then they decided that success in the early round was more important than success in later rounds. This makes since because it does not take a lot of production to exceed the projected WAR for a 7th round pick because the bar is set much lower than for 1st round picks. To account for this they did exactly what I would have done and built "a model that regresses the draft success as measured by WAR over expected against the consistent draft success in different rounds, and put the success of each team back into this regression." :saywhat: After this final calculation the Bengals ranked 11th. That makes since when you look at their list of top 5 biggest hits "by percentile" in the AFC North. The Bengals have three of the five with 7th rounder Nedu Ndukwe, and 5th rounders George Iloka and Marvin Jones.
At #11 the Bengals drafted better than any team in the AFC North, and according to their calculations the Steelers drafted very poorly (19th). Browns were dead last in the league because they had more "draft capital" (high picks) than any other team but still did not find much talent.
They also included a few notes about the drafts since 2016. Auden Tate was in the top five biggest hits "by percentile", but in biggest misses in "WAR Over Expected" we had both number 2 (Price) and 3 (Ross). Bengals currently rank 30th in drafting over the last three years. Since the '15 draft was obviously one of the worst in the league that means we have to be near the bottom over the last 5 years despite having a decent draft in '16 (Jackson, Boyd, Vigil, Billings, Fejedelem).
We have to get back to drafting better if we are going to have any extended success.
It's been a rough few years, but the Bengals have, generally, been very good at drafting. We used to routinely find major contributors in the 4th or later rounds (see: Atkins, Boling, Jones, Iloka, Uzomah, Tate).
I'm looking forward to us rebounding in 2020. We are in prime position to have an absolutely phenomenal draft. This draft is deep as hell and we have first pick of the players that drop out of each round :). Essentially we have 2 first round picks, with #33 often being highly valued because of the break between the first and second round allowing for a lot of thought, evaluation and potential trade decisions.
Just please...No more Drew Sample style picks...We need value at every single slot. Don't reach for need or "pet players." Honestly, I'm not even sure if Sample fits those descriptions, but he was...something. Something that we definitely shouldn't do this year.
(03-09-2020, 06:49 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Do you remember that Lucky Stripe gum? Whatever happened to that stuff?
Beach-Nut still makes the Fruit Stripe gum in five juicy flavors. There used to be a bubble gum called Lucky Spike which looked like a pack of Lucky Strike cigarettes.
(03-09-2020, 07:37 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Just please...No more Drew Sample style picks...We need value at every single slot. Don't reach for need or "pet players." Honestly, I'm not even sure if Sample fits those descriptions, but he was...something. Something that we definitely shouldn't do this year.
Never judge a player based on his rookie season. Way too many examples of really good players who did nothing their first season.
Also interesting to note that many of the fans who complain the loudest about Sample wanted us to use that 2nd round pick on a guy who was not taken until the fifth round (Mack Wilson). They have no idea how real NFL teams rate these players.
(03-09-2020, 07:49 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: IKR. A big pack lasted like 5 or 10 minutes.
Ok, just fill me in here since I'm new to the boards. Is this gum reference towards Fred's evaluations or towards the Bengals once good drafts? Lol
BTW, I did love the taste as soon as it hit my mouth, but it did fade very quickly! Lmao
(03-09-2020, 07:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Never judge a player based on his rookie season. Way too many examples of really good players who did nothing their first season.
Also interesting to note that many of the fans who complain the loudest about Sample wanted us to use that 2nd round pick on a guy who was not taken until the fifth round (Mack Wilson). They have no idea how real NFL teams rate these players.
I'd feel a lot better about an underperformer if they had any outstanding stats, traits or abilities.
For example, despite continuously underperforming, John Ross has remained a "potential" player because he has blinding speed.
Hopefully, Sample shows more value in his 2nd NFL season than he has in his entire collegiate and professional career though.
(03-09-2020, 07:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Never judge a player based on his rookie season. Way too many examples of really good players who did nothing their first season.
Also interesting to note that many of the fans who complain the loudest about Sample wanted us to use that 2nd round pick on a guy who was not taken until the fifth round (Mack Wilson). They have no idea how real NFL teams rate these players.
Guys drop for multiple reasons every year. Doesn’t prove anything. Sample was a reach. No matter how you want to look at it.
(03-09-2020, 07:58 PM)JerseyDD09 Wrote: Ok, just fill me in here since I'm new to the boards. Is this gum reference towards Fred's evaluations or towards the Bengals once good drafts? Lol
This is just what they do when they can't handle the truth I drop on them.
(03-09-2020, 06:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: At #11 the Bengals drafted better than any team in the AFC North, and according to their calculations the Steelers drafted very poorly (19th).
(03-09-2020, 08:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is just what they do when they can't handle the truth I drop on them.
Lol It's fun to watch though. Everyone knows the Bengals have been one of the better drafting teams since '11. But, we all know they need to get drafting better again to get back in the hunt.
They've been incredibly snake bitten with their amount of 1st round injured players starting back with Jackson III and continuing with Ross, Price and Jonah.
I'm scared for Burrow! Lol
After this final calculation the Bengals ranked 11th. That makes since when you look at their list of top 5 biggest hits "by percentile" in the AFC North. The Bengals have three of the five with 7th rounder Nedu Ndukwe, and 5th rounders George Iloka and Marvin Jones.
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