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I'm all for trading down at least once. To pick up an extra 3rd or 4th round pick.
Even with the flurry of free agent signings I still can't seem to plug all the holes with 7 picks.
I want to take advantage of this wide receiver class and snag 2. An extra pick would help free up the draft some.
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Statistically, outside of the first, trading down is probably better because more picks increases the chances of getting a quality player
Personally, I think it depends on who is there. Just using this draft as an example, things tend to go in streaks (somebody picked a center in the third and suddenly four guys slated for the fifth rate are off the board). This draft is deep at wr, so we'll probably see two or three chunks where receivers start flying off. If we've identified a guy we like in the second chunk (rounds 2-3 probably), but he's still there when we open the third round... It might be better statistically to drop back and get another pick with the hope the run happens later.
But in the end, it's mostly guesswork. Surefire guys are going to be out of the league in a few years and guys you never heard of are going to blow up in the NFL. Good teams identify guys with good work ethic and skill sets that fit their scheme. That's the best you can hope for.
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The fact that we were so heavily involved in FA also gives us a position of strength to negotiate with a little. We don't Have To rely solely on the draft this year to rebuild the roster. We can adopt a bit of a take it or leave it stance in negotiations.
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I'm firmly locked in they aren't trading the first pick of round two. The first night of the draft is just round one. That means the Bengals will have nearly a day to talk over who they want to take with the first pick of round two; that's a fairly nice advantage (I can't find it, but I know Zac was on the record talking about this being an advantage).
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This year is going to be a lot different from the norm, what with the inability to interview people face-to face. Still, I think the odds of getting the type player you want increases greatly when you pick (for example) 20 spots earlier then you might by trading down. Still, I leave it up to our scouts in making those type decisions, as surely they know more than the vast majority of us.