I see this as a principal argument for why Tua is a better prospect than Burrow.

"Tua has been elite for 2 years and a national championship in his freshman year. Burrow was only elite for 1 year."

Here's the thing...

In that "1 year," Burrow played 15 games and had 527 attempts.

In Tua's 2 years + National Championship, he played 24.5 games and had 631 attempts.

So...are we talking about 104 attempts? That's what we're calling "experience" with Tua?

And that completely ignores Burrow's last 4 games in 2018, where he had a combined line of:
81 of 121 for 1166 yards (67% completion percentage, 292 yards per game), 10 TD and 1 INT, an NCAA QBR of 173.5 (and an NFL QBR of 122.1) with 49 rushes for 156 yards and 3 TD.

So let's call it 648 attempts over 19 games for Burrow playing at a consistent, consecutive, elite level.

Makes Tua's 24.5 games and 631 attempts seem much less impressive or sustained compared to Burrow when you actually think for a few minutes.

I don't have anything insightful to add, but hell yes to the OP. Love it, great post!

(04-21-2020, 04:08 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: What a lot of the QB's you listed have in common is poor decision making.  Ryan Leaf had the arm.  So did Akili Smith.  The intangibles were missing IMO.  

I think it's a combination of things.  Leaf had poor decision making (both on and off the field).  Akili simply wasn't that smart and couldn't read an NFL defense.  Jones had the physique, but not the requisite skill.  Russell had off-the-field issues.  Weinke plateaued in college.  Carr was hit too much.  Shuler and Ware were system guys.  Of the non-QBs, Emtman was injured, and Salaam was a headcase. 

In college, you can surround a guy with talent or tailor a system to his strengths and he can be successful for a season.  It's harder to follow that up because you have to deal with the pressure of expectations, DC's game-planning for you, off-season film study, etc.  NFL has much more parity and week-to-week prep, plus you play two teams twice every season so they can focus on your weaknesses.  A lot of things have to happen in order to achieve success in the NFL, which is why the draft is such a crap shoot.  Teams need luck and skill.    

(04-21-2020, 05:40 PM)shanebo Wrote: I think it's a combination of things.  Leaf had poor decision making (both on and off the field).  Akili simply wasn't that smart and couldn't read an NFL defense.  Jones had the physique, but not the requisite skill.  Russell had off-the-field issues.  Weinke plateaued in college.  Carr was hit too much.  Shuler and Ware were system guys.  Of the non-QBs, Emtman was injured, and Salaam was a headcase. 

In college, you can surround a guy with talent or tailor a system to his strengths and he can be successful for a season.  It's harder to follow that up because you have to deal with the pressure of expectations, DC's game-planning for you, off-season film study, etc.  NFL has much more parity and week-to-week prep, plus you play two teams twice every season so they can focus on your weaknesses.  A lot of things have to happen in order to achieve success in the NFL, which is why the draft is such a crap shoot.  Teams need luck and skill.    

This is my major concern with Joe Burrow

(04-21-2020, 05:52 PM)spazz70 Wrote: This is my major concern with Joe Burrow

Based on what?

This is just so crazy to me. Burrow is and should be the pick. I'm happy with that and ready for it to happen. I haven't posted much because if you don't slobber all over Joe, you're a hater and a troll. I'm neither. Just cautiously optimistic. I want Burrow to be the greatest QB that's ever walked the planet, but I temper my hopes and expectations. It's nothing personal against him. I just don't want to set myself up to be disappointed.

I'm definitely excited for the new Tiger King to come into town and I hope he leads us to the promised land. However, being a lifelong Bengals fan makes me nervous. It's perfectly okay for those who feel this is going to turn the franchise around, but it's also okay for those of us who aren't quite ready to go balls out yet as well. We're all fans of the same team and want our team to be successful, but because someone doesn't compare Burrow to Manning, Brady, Marino, Favre, Montana, etc, etc doesn't mean we're hating on him or throwing shade.

I hope Jeaux Exotic is everything he looks like he could be. I can't tell you how much I'd love to see this team hoist the Lombardi. I believe he could be the guy to get us there, just not ready to proclaim it as a foregone conclusion just yet.

(04-21-2020, 01:56 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: The whole argument of "he only did it for one year" criticism of Burrow is not logical. If someone demonstrates an ability, then the potential is there. Burrow's accuracy and decision making incrementally improved each game of each season. It is what one would expect in terms of excellent performance and peaking.

Behavior that occurs for 6-12 months is considered ingrained pattern. Not a fluke. It could be argued "he only did it for one game" would be reasonable fluke. When a QB breaks historic records over an entire season, including the CFP and National championship, it is a behavior pattern of excellence. Burrow performed excellence under the most intense pressured filled moments against some of the college's best football athletes.

How many plays occurred in this "one year?" How many decisions? How many inspirational moments? Remember, over the course of playing against the best competition in college football, Burrow made hundreds if not thousands of correct decisions under duress. This illustrates the Burrow has innate ability or "traits" which are ingrained; part of his DNA.

Every athlete drafted this year is a risk. Every single one.

If a football player has "it factor" and demonstrates it consistently over several games, then the "elite" floor is there. If a football player has "it factor" potential but hasn't demonstrated it consistently i.e; Patrick Queen, then the "elite" ceiling has been established but is more of a risk to actualize the potential.

Burrow has elite floor that is not magically going to disappear. My only concern is his health and he takes too many hits. Health is the great equalizing in sports.

Realistically who does what Burrow did in the SEC for 3 or 4 games? He did it every game(mostly) and always performed when the lights were brightest. He is Joe “Willy” Burrow, someone ought to get Joe Namaths opinion on JB.
So yes he earned his position in the draft, now the Bengals need to focus on protecting Burrow’s health with a fine offensive line and one with depth. Starting with this draft.

(04-21-2020, 06:04 PM)bengals1969 Wrote: Realistically who does what Burrow did in the SEC for 3 or 4 games? He did it every game(mostly) and always performed when the lights were brightest. He is Joe “Willy” Burrow, someone ought to get Joe Namaths opinion on JB.
So yes he earned his position in the draft, now the Bengals need to focus on protecting Burrow’s health with a fine offensive line and one with depth. Starting with this draft.

No, they really shouldn't.

Namath is one of the worst QBs to ever suit up.

(04-21-2020, 06:15 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: No, they really shouldn't.

Namath is one of the worst QBs to ever suit up.

Did he mean to say Joe Montana? Or Joe Montainya perhaps?

The fact remains that Burrow is a one year wonder.That much we do know.But wow,what a wonder that was.Best year of any Quarterback in college history.Then of course you could make the argument that he had an all-star cast around him.That is also fact.Hey,quarterback selection is very risky,we all know that.Transitioning from college toNFL is a big jump and some just don’t make it.But with all that said,come draft day,I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on this guy as my #1 overall pick.

(04-21-2020, 05:55 PM)McC Wrote: Based on what?

Are we gonna do this again?  

(04-21-2020, 06:41 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Are we gonna do this again?  

Answer the question.

(04-21-2020, 03:16 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Maybe not this year.  Elite QB like Manning struggled first year.  

I don't recall Montana being considered elite coming out of college.  The interesting attribute about Montana is how calm he was during games.  Like eerily calm.   He calmed down his entire team on the field.  I think Burrow will not only improve everyone around him with his moxy but he will have a confidence effect on his teammates during times of pressure.  The intangibles that Burrow brings was not a one year product.  It goes all the way to high school.  It is in his DNA.  

My point all players are evaluation and those are 2 points of concern.. and they are fair points..

(04-21-2020, 07:02 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: My point all players are evaluation and those are 2 points of concern.. and they are fair points..

At least he doesn't seem to have off the field issues. He's cocky, but I think a lot of really good sports players have been cocky.

(04-21-2020, 02:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The funny thing is how some of the same people who claim we should ignore Dalton's one great year love Burrow based on just one great year. 

Burrow wouldn't be the number one pick if Dalton had just once had carried us in a playoff game or had given us a good indication he could win the big games.  He just crumbled way too many times when the big lights were on him.  Statistically, Dalton was a decent quarterback and performed well for us for the most part.

I think this team is just so desperate for a winner that it's worth taking the chance this year when we do have so many holes to fill.  I hope it pays off, because if it doesn't, we will always think of what could of been if we had traded that pick and fixed all the major holes in this team.

(04-21-2020, 06:43 PM)McC Wrote: Answer the question.

I did in another thread two weeks ago with you...  Go look it up.  Remember when you got all high and mighty because you graduated from UC a
loathe OSU.  I said everything I needed to in that thread...Peace

(04-21-2020, 08:02 PM)spazz70 Wrote: I did in another thread two weeks ago with you...  Go look it up.  Remember when you got all high and mighty because you graduated from UC a
loathe OSU.  I said everything I needed to in that thread...Peace

Except for when you brought it up again in this thread.

Listen you lose the fans if you don't pick Joe Burrow. If Burrow doesn't pan out there will only be a few fans who said I told you so.

95% of the media is for Burrow being the #1 pick. You literally cannot lose in this situation.

Only way you lose if you pick Chase Young or take the Dolphins offer and Burrow goes onto be a top 5 QB

Not every player comes in with a Grade A+ resume but when someone comes in with the greatest season in college history. You take the damn dude

When it comes to the NFL Draft there are simply no guarantees.

You do your homework, you watch film, you do your due diligence — and the draft is still a crapshoot. Logic and statistics dictate Joe Burrow should go #1OA to the Bengals and I’m 90% sure that’s the way things will shake out.

This probably will work but it might not. I’m prepared to be anywhere from ecstatic to disappointed.

(04-21-2020, 03:57 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: If I recall correctly and more to this point Holic, I did not know Burrow's High School football team was historically bad.  Burrow elevated his teammates and they won state.  

Actually, they lost the state championship. Here’s some highlights though from his senior year for anyone interested.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/1520086/5721c38c041ddc1b00593cd7

(04-21-2020, 05:56 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: This is just so crazy to me. Burrow is and should be the pick. I'm happy with that and ready for it to happen. I haven't posted much because if you don't slobber all over Joe, you're a hater and a troll. I'm neither. Just cautiously optimistic. I want Burrow to be the greatest QB that's ever walked the planet, but I temper my hopes and expectations. It's nothing personal against him. I just don't want to set myself up to be disappointed.

I'm definitely excited for the new Tiger King to come into town and I hope he leads us to the promised land. However, being a lifelong Bengals fan makes me nervous. It's perfectly okay for those who feel this is going to turn the franchise around, but it's also okay for those of us who aren't quite ready to go balls out yet as well. We're all fans of the same team and want our team to be successful, but because someone doesn't compare Burrow to Manning, Brady, Marino, Favre, Montana, etc, etc doesn't mean we're hating on him or throwing shade.

I hope Jeaux Exotic is everything he looks like he could be. I can't tell you how much I'd love to see this team hoist the Lombardi. I believe he could be the guy to get us there, just not ready to proclaim it as a foregone conclusion just yet.

Please don’t associate Joe Burrow with that scumbag.