(05-22-2020, 05:40 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Of the previous 31 teams that went 2-14, only 7 of them managed to win at least 7 games the next year. However, with the additions in free agency and the drafting of Burrow, I think I agree though, 7 wins seems pretty reasonable.

Uh... Hell yes 7 wins seems pretty reasonable. The NFL is geared towards teams finishing 8-8. I don't like that a lot of us keep the training wheels on for Zac Taylor. Is he HC material or not? "He didn't have time to hire a staff.". "He didn't have time to scout players.". "A lot of our losses were by X amount of points or less.".

If he didn't "have time" to hire a staff, he certainly did this year. The same bozos are still here. Certainly he had time to scout college players this year, and I like our draft on paper... Time will tell. The thing about the close losses is the most laughable though. Which team in NFL history had 14 blowout losses? Again; it's an 8-8 league where games are decided by inches.

Then we come to the injuries. The Steelers were decimated by injuries on offense last year, and they were competitive. Every team suffers injuries. How many guys were on IR for the Packers when they won the super bowl with Aaron Rogers? I think it was close to 15.

So yes... This team should be at least around .500 this season, or Zac needs to go. 5 wins? Get the **** outta here.

(05-22-2020, 12:04 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: You aren't trying to win if you're replacing your well established vet with a rookie 4th round pick.

Tell the to Dak Prescott... but i agree he put in Finley to tank but i have zero belief Finley will ever have success in the NFL. He was a rookie last year sure but his aim isn’t good enough for the league and it showed

(05-23-2020, 05:01 AM)TSwigZ Wrote: Tell the to Dak Prescott... but i agree he put in Finley to tank but i have zero belief Finley will ever have success in the NFL. He was a rookie last year sure but his aim isn’t good enough for the league and it showed

Ya, Finley didn’t look like a starter in this league, however, he still potentially holds some value IMO.

Since we keep bringing up Dak, look at his O coordinator, Kellen Moore, for inspiration. Kellen Moore didn’t have the tools to be an NFL QB, but was one of the greatest collegiate QBs of all time, a good backup in Dallas, and now in his first year as OC in Dallas formulated debateably the top passing attack in the league.

My hope is Finley can fit this type of role for us, a backup QB with an extremely sharp mind that can help Burrow prep for gameday. Finley may not have success as a starter, but he can certainly have success as a backup.

(05-22-2020, 11:29 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: In 2002 the team was coming off this stretch of 4 years prior: 3-13, 4-12, 4-12, 6-10. Gus Ferotte was actually brought in to start that season, with Kitna brought in as well as competition.  Heading into the season no one knew Chad would one day be a star, and no one knew who TJ Houshmandzadeh was.  The star power on that team was basically Corey Dillon of offense, and Takeo Spikes on defense. You had Justin Smith, but he was somewhat a disappointment and far from being a great player.

Quick question about Justin Smith. Would you ever consider him a great player or not great during his time in Cincy?

(05-22-2020, 11:54 PM)jason Wrote: Uh... Hell yes 7 wins seems pretty reasonable. The NFL is geared towards teams finishing 8-8. I don't like that a lot of us keep the training wheels on for Zac Taylor. Is he HC material or not? "He didn't have time to hire a staff.". "He didn't have time to scout players.". "A lot of our losses were by X amount of points or less.".

If he didn't "have time" to hire a staff, he certainly did this year. The same bozos are still here. Certainly he had time to scout college players this year, and I like our draft on paper... Time will tell. The thing about the close losses is the most laughable though. Which team in NFL history had 14 blowout losses? Again; it's an 8-8 league where games are decided by inches.

Then we come to the injuries. The Steelers were decimated by injuries on offense last year, and they were competitive. Every team suffers injuries. How many guys were on IR for the Packers when they won the super bowl with Aaron Rogers? I think it was close to 15.

So yes... This team should be at least around .500 this season, or Zac needs to go. 5 wins? Get the **** outta here.

In the book.

(05-22-2020, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Taylor does not get any credit for loosening the purse strings.  But I think the fact that they did puts even more pressure on him.

The Bengals defense over the last two seasons has been worse than any two game stretch in team history.  It obviously needed a lot more than just "tweeking".  After all the money spent on Bell, Reader, Waynes, and McKenzie if they don't show HUGE improvement in 2020 Taylor will be in big trouble.  He can't blame a rookie QB for a bad defense.

If our defense is still trash, Lou's head will roll before Zac's does.

(05-23-2020, 08:32 AM)Dean_Gilberry95 Wrote: Quick question about Justin Smith.  Would you ever consider him a great player or not great during his time in Cincy?

Definitely not great.  Im lazy to look it up, but I think his peak year here resulted in like 7 sacks.

He was definitely solid though. But I remember quite a few people wanting to label him a bust or disappointment back then. I guess as #4 overall pick people expected a lot more.

What we soon found out though was he was a pretty great player. But that he just didnt really fit our system. Once he got to San Fran and was used more to his strengths he flourished.

I do not think there is a specific number of wins needed, we just need to show improvement.

Taylor and his staff made some good decisions, some bad ones, and had some things out of their control.

I. Beyond his Control

1. Injuries. Not just AJ and Jonah. But Cordy Glenn as well. Ross and Phillips also got injured after good starts.
2. Retirements. Boling + Jonah & Glenn's injuries wreaked havoc on the O-line.
3. Marvin's roster. Had a lot of holes. Particularly LB. 4-3 system guys when he wants to play more 3-4.
4. Late hire. Did not have a lot of time to prepare for draft, or go after FAs. And it showed.

II. Poor Decisions/Bad signs.

1. Reaching for Sample in R2.
2. Too few OTs on roster forced a career G to LT (Jerry). Bad roster construction.
3. Some curious play calling, especially in the Red Zone.
4. Terrible defensive execution. Worst run defense. Terrible on 3rd down. Bad LBs. Regression from secondary starters. Compare 2018 v 2019 PFF grades: Bates (79.9 to 59.7), WJ3 (73.4 v 53.6), S. Williams (71.6 to 54.4). Dre was consistent at a lower level (60.0 to 61.7), but he and Dennard, who was our best secondary performer (68.6 to 72.2) are both gone. Lou has to show he can do a better job with the DBs. I know you want to run a different system and were stuck with Marvin's guys, but you have to coach the guys you have.


A. Good Decisions/Signs

1. The Finley tank job. Netted us Burrow.
2. Recognition of need for change and the Courage to do it. Changing the blocking scheme on the O-line late led to be inprovements (as did Glenn getting healthy). Moreover, he changed from the system he initially wanted to run to one that better fit his personnel. That is a good sign. Good coaches cannot be too inflexible/in love with their preferred systems. Coach, don't wage some ideological football crusade.
3. Recognition/Courage: Part 2: Personnel changes. Not afraid to not only replace a high priced starter who just got paid with a rookie (Preston Brown for Pratt), but cutting that vet altogether. Lets the players know no one is safe and the FO is behind the coach. Also, did not waste much time letting Jerry, Miller, and Glenn go after the season, despite decent play (especially Glenn).
4. Recognition/Courage: Part 3: Culture. All his major defensive FAs came from PO teams (Reader, Bynes, Waynes, Bell, Alexander, and Sims). 6 of the 7 draft picks (and several of the UDFAs) were team captains. Several were coaches sons. All were productive. Versatile. Smart guys. Winners. Captains. High football IQ. He has a vision for the team and the culture, but did not reach for try hard guys who cannot play to get there.
5. Learned from mistakes. No Sample redux this year.
6. Planning with Adaptability. Knew Burrow was the pick in R1, so went heavy on D in FA. Wanted to improve the run D, got Reader & upgraded secondary tackling with Bell, Alexander & Waynes. Realized LB was a disaster but refrained from overpaying a FA LB $10 mil because the liked the LB depth in the draft. But that did not stop him from signing a vet MIKE for cheap in FA (Bynes), nor from taking Higgins in R2 instead of reaching for a LB after Brooks, Queen, & Murray were gone.

---------------

Look, I have no idea if Taylor will be a good coach or not. But I think there are some good signs. I still have worries. I still think we are too thin at OT. I worry that our secondary will struggle on 3rd down again. Not a fan of Turner. O-line is shaky and inexperienced. Taylor's play calling needs to improve. But there are solid building blocks in place. He has learned from mistakes (Sample), adapted, made tough decisions and cut ties quickly when needed (Brown), but also shown some grace (Dre, Andy). He showed he has a vision but it also willing to adapt it when necessary.

Our division is tough. Anything above 6 wins is fantastic. Below 5 is worrisome. 2 or 3 = DANGER, WILL ROBINSON.

(05-23-2020, 01:28 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I do not think there is a specific number of wins needed, we just need to show improvement.

Taylor and his staff made some good decisions, some bad ones, and had some things out of their control.

I think this is an excellent break down. I clipped the quote just because it's very long. 

I will only nitpick a couple of really small things. When Glenn went back in he did not play good football, or for that matter even very much football before he was replaced by Fred Johnson. At least I based this on a film review by Matt Minnich that I posted in another thread on here somewhere. Glenn really looked like he didn't give a crap. 

Also, I wouldn't put the "Ryan Finley tank job" in the positive column. One can debate the meaning of "tank," as has been done elsewhere on this board, but to call it a positive decision because it netted us Burrow is to say he did it specifically to lose games to get Burrow. Which is both absurd and, given that his job is to win games, would be poor coaching. 

Everything else is spot on. On a separate note, I had a dream last night that we were 3/4 of the way through the season and still hadn't won a game, and ZT was fired. Or should I say a nightmare. 

True, tons of pressure on Taylor, similar to Wyche back in 88' hope Taylor does the same improvement if not better.

Wyche had the much better O-line though, so maybe this is a little unfair. Just saying Wyche was on the hot seat the year
before and responded in a great way with playcalling and overall aggressive scheme. With Burrow coming in, the OL getting
much better maybe Taylor does something similar at least this is what I am hoping for.

We have a lot of weapons if they stay healthy for Taylor and Burrow to implement a very tough Offense for D's to stop.

(05-23-2020, 12:35 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Definitely not great.  Im lazy to look it up, but I think his peak year here resulted in like 7 sacks.

He was definitely solid though. But I remember quite a few people wanting to label him a bust or disappointment back then. I guess as #4 overall pick people expected a lot more.

What we soon found out though was he was a pretty great player. But that he just didnt really fit our system. Once he got to San Fran and was used more to his strengths he flourished.

He played the same number of years on both teams his stats are almost identical in each 7 year span. What made him a great player there and not here? He never had more than 8.5 sacks with either team. I’ll never understand why they thought he was so great in San Fran when his numbers were the same in Cincy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitJu20.htm

Same reason whitworth was all pro with the Rams and not here. It’s because they played for the Bungles. Nobody cares, except us. I still say if Whitworth was on any other team Joe Thomas gets less love over the years. It is what it is.

(05-22-2020, 12:34 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Not really, as it was a win-win situation:

- if Finley balls out, you have your QB of the future.
- If Finley plays like crap (which he did), hello 1st round pick.

It was a smart decision, no matter how you slice it, but to call it an out-and-out tank job...

I agree. Putting Finley in was a smart decision. TBH, many if not most on here were calling for a QB change because Dalton wasnt getting it done. Have to try and see what you got on the bench when the season was getting away from you. I would highly criticize ZT if he didnt make that move. I would have loved to see Dolegala at least play a game or two to see what he had in the tank, but that didn't happen which sucks. I don't think ZT tanked the season at all. He was trying to win every game. Was going to enter a Marvin comment here in this paragraph, but didn't want Fred falling to pieces. 

They can fire Zac if he doesn't make the playoffs. That's how I want it done. Thanks.

(05-23-2020, 01:58 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: I think this is an excellent break down. I clipped the quote just because it's very long. 

I will only nitpick a couple of really small things. When Glenn went back in he did not play good football, or for that matter even very much football before he was replaced by Fred Johnson. At least I based this on a film review by Matt Minnich that I posted in another thread on here somewhere. Glenn really looked like he didn't give a crap. 

Also, I wouldn't put the "Ryan Finley tank job" in the positive column. One can debate the meaning of "tank," as has been done elsewhere on this board, but to call it a positive decision because it netted us Burrow is to say he did it specifically to lose games to get Burrow. Which is both absurd and, given that his job is to win games, would be poor coaching. 

Everything else is spot on. On a separate note, I had a dream last night that we were 3/4 of the way through the season and still hadn't won a game, and ZT was fired. Or should I say a nightmare. 

Thanks for the props.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Finley and Glenn.

On Cordy, he graded out as our best lineman last year (PFF grade of 68.4). He started 5 of the last 6 games, starting with Game 11, so I do not know what you are talking about there (Pitt, NYJ, Cle, NE, Miami). Johnson started once. Yeah, there were some issues on his return. Rust. And likely some anger about how his injury was handled. But he played pretty well. I trust PFF grading every play a hellava lot more than Minnich, who has an agenda.

 We won the Jets game, nearly the Fins game, and were quite comprtitive in the first Cle game and v Pitt. We likely win the Pitt game if Dalton is at QB. Which brings me to Finley.

Taylor's job is to make us better. Not win meaningless games after an 0-8 start. There were 2 very winnable games in the 3 Finley started (Raiders, Steelers). I think we lost 17-10, 16-10? A little better offense and we are 4-12. 

Once the season is bust, I have no problem with a coach evaluating the depth on the roster. Especially a first year coach who had a short pre-season. Pratt for Brown. Finley for Dalton. Johnson for Glenn last game. 

At 0-8 we were going nowhere. Dalton was gone anyway. A QB was a likely choice for the pick. So he knew Finley likely won't play much this year. It was a chance to look at him. In the unlikely event he tears it up, then you have your QB. If not, you have lost 2 winnable games and improved our draft position. 

So yes, I fully believe Taylor knew we had a better chance to win with Dalton, but started Finley anyway. Call it what you want. I call it a smart move that made our team better.

(05-23-2020, 04:32 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I agree. Putting Finley in was a smart decision. TBH, many if not most on here were calling for a QB change because Dalton wasnt getting it done. Have to try and see what you got on the bench when the season was getting away from you. I would highly criticize ZT if he didnt make that move. I would have loved to see Dolegala at least play a game or two to see what he had in the tank, but that didn't happen which sucks. I don't think ZT tanked the season at all. He was trying to win every game. Was going to enter a Marvin comment here in this paragraph, but didn't want Fred falling to pieces. 

Yeah, I was calling for Finley myself to see what he had and after was hoping to see Dolegala.

Have to see what you got if you already know what you got in Dalton period. We were already locked up for the first overall 
pick anyways pretty much. What was nice was seeing the improvement in the team as a whole and them still playing hard for
Taylor even if we had the first overall pick locked up. This and of course Joe Burrow having the season he had.

Fell the right way and then we did what we did in FA and then had that Draft after Burrow?

Taylor has all the pressure now cause he has HIS pieces. Now we can judge him fairly in his coaching ability.

(05-23-2020, 05:12 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Thanks for the props.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Finley and Glenn.

On Cordy, he graded out as our best lineman last year (PFF grade of 68.4). He started 5 of the last 6 games, starting with Game 11, so I do not know what you are talking about there (Pitt, NYJ, Cle, NE, Miami). Johnson started once. Yeah, there were some issues on his return. Rust. And likely some anger about how his injury was handled. But he played pretty well. I trust PFF grading every play a hellava lot more than Minnich, who has an agenda.

 We won the Jets game, nearly the Fins game, and were quite comprtitive in the first Cle game and v Pitt. We likely win the Pitt game if Dalton is at QB. Which brings me to Finley.

Taylor's job is to make us better. Not win meaningless games after an 0-8 start. There were 2 very winnable games in the 3 Finley started (Raiders, Steelers). I think we lost 17-10, 16-10? A little better offense and we are 4-12. 

Once the season is bust, I have no problem with a coach evaluating the depth on the roster. Especially a first year coach who had a short pre-season. Pratt for Brown. Finley for Dalton. Johnson for Glenn last game. 

At 0-8 we were going nowhere. Dalton was gone anyway. A QB was a likely choice for the pick. So he knew Finley likely won't play much this year. It was a chance to look at him. In the unlikely event he tears it up, then you have your QB. If not, you have lost 2 winnable games and improved our draft position. 

So yes, I fully believe Taylor knew we had a better chance to win with Dalton, but started Finley anyway. Call it what you want. I call it a smart move that made our team better.

Setting most of that aside, I just want to be clear about the Finley part. I too think it was a good decision, just not because it was a tank job to net a higher pick. It was smart to evaluate Finley, and I supported it. The term 'tank job' seems to imply a deliberate strategy to lose games, which would not be good, ever. That is not a "winning culture," and NFL coaches whose careers depend on wins don't do it. But if by tank job you mean acknowledging the season was lost and gathering info for the future - absolutely. 

(05-23-2020, 03:45 PM)Dean_Gilberry95 Wrote: He played the same number of years on both teams his stats are almost identical in each 7 year span.  What made him a great player there and not here?  He never had more than 8.5 sacks with either team.  I’ll never understand why they thought he was so great in San Fran when his numbers were the same in Cincy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitJu20.htm

Same reason whitworth was all pro with the Rams and not here.  It’s because they played for the Bungles.   Nobody cares, except us.  I still say if Whitworth was on any other team Joe Thomas gets less love over the years.  It is what it is.

For Justin Smith, it's because he became a 3-4 DE rather than a 4-3 DE. The matchups and expectations are different. That's why there are regularly multiple 4-3 DEs who get double digit sacks and as for 3-4 DEs there's only the freakish JJ Watt.


As for Whitworth, you're simply wrong there. Whit was All-Pro for the Bengals in 2015 (and 2nd team All-Pro in 2014). Also Joe Thomas is a first ballot HoFer who didn't miss a single SNAP on offense until his final year, so you're double wrong on this Whitworth part.

(05-23-2020, 10:09 AM)McC Wrote: In the book.

I want the book Tobe written. I'm ready for some fun and exciting seasons again.

(05-23-2020, 06:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: For Justin Smith, it's because he became a 3-4 DE rather than a 4-3 DE. The matchups and expectations are different. That's why there are regularly multiple 4-3 DEs who get double digit sacks and as for 3-4 DEs there's only the freakish JJ Watt.


As for Whitworth, you're simply wrong there. Whit was All-Pro for the Bengals in 2015 (and 2nd team All-Pro in 2014). Also Joe Thomas is a first ballot HoFer who didn't miss a single SNAP on offense until his final year, so you're double wrong on this Whitworth part.

Fair enough didn’t know he was ever All Pro here. That being said, so it took 10 seasons for Whitworth to start playing at a All Pro level? Hell No. Just like Big Willie, no love until late in their careers. The sports writers, networks, fans, etc get on their knees for certain players over others. Just like one guy saying the chargers powder blue is so awesome, then they all jump on board saying “best uniform in football.” Gag.

They all pile on the Joe Thomas bandwagon “future HOF” like you said, just the same. While Whitworth, (just as good) gets nothing for 10 years. I’m not saying Joe Thomas is no hall of gamer or not good. Just if Whitworth was on one of the chosen franchises maybe Joe Thomas isn’t “the man” all those years.

Anyway, Justin Smith and Whitworth were awesome Bengals! WhoDey

(05-23-2020, 03:45 PM)Dean_Gilberry95 Wrote: He played the same number of years on both teams his stats are almost identical in each 7 year span.  What made him a great player there and not here?  He never had more than 8.5 sacks with either team.  I’ll never understand why they thought he was so great in San Fran when his numbers were the same in Cincy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitJu20.htm

Same reason whitworth was all pro with the Rams and not here.  It’s because they played for the Bungles.   Nobody cares, except us.  I still say if Whitworth was on any other team Joe Thomas gets less love over the years.  It is what it is.

While I do believe Justin Smith was somewhat undervalued here, and that he better than most people thought, there's no denying he fit much better in a 3-4.

Stats aren't the end all be all.  For research, Football Reference assigns an "Approximate Value" to each individual season for every player.  In Smith's case you'll see his number hover around the same here (b/t 6-8) and then skyrocket in San Fran (b/t 13-18).  It's pretty similar to PFF, but I don't have an account to provide those numbers.

In a 3-4 he's not asked to get down in a stance and rush the edge as much. He's out in space a lot more, which causes sack totals to drop.

And what's really scary is that he got to San Fran at age 29.  He ranked #17 in the NFL Top 100 at age 32.  Mutiple Pro Bowls.  Imagine what those numbers would look like from the ages of 22-29 in a 3-4 vs. 29-36.  I think it's safe to say it was a much better scheme for him.  He matched or exceed pretty much every career record there (Sacks, Fumbles, Tackles for Loss, QB Hits).  To do this in a at an older age, and playing in a 3-4 is pretty incredible.

To each their own, but I don't think there was a bias there. He just played a lot better in that system, even if the numbers don't always show it.  He was a monster later in his career. And he pretty decent here too, just not the best fit.