Evan McPhillips just put the worst QBS in 2019 in uncatchable ball rate
Andy was 2ND to dead last with 24% .of all the QBS listed Josh Allen is the only
One starting this year. Very telling stat on how possibly AD was really
Handcuffing the big play chances for the WRS last year

Who is Evan McPhillips and were is the line drawn between a "catchable pass" and an "uncatchable pass".

What is the exact metric and/or measurement he uses to make this determination?

(07-13-2020, 01:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Who is Evan McPhillips and were is the line drawn between a "catchable pass" and an "uncatchable pass".

What is the exact metric and/or measurement he uses to make this determination?

He's with PFF. I think he just posted it today 

(07-13-2020, 01:38 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Evan McPhillips just put the worst QBS in 2019 in uncatchable ball rate
Andy was 2ND to dead last with 24% .of all the QBS listed Josh Allen is the only
One starting this year. Very telling stat on how possibly AD was really
Handcuffing the big play chances for the WRS last year

Yep.

Here's a link that goes a little more in-depth for Dalton's stats - https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/andy-dalton/

Notice the Efficiency section...
True Passer Rating (removes unpressured throwaways and dropped passes) - 69.5 (34th in league)
True Completion Percentage (same things removed as above) - 65.6% (31st in league)
Play-Action Completion Percentage - 60.3% (31st in league)
Red Zone Completion percentage - 51.4% (35th in league)
Deep ball completion percentage - 34.6% (21st in league)
Pressured completion percentage - 26.2% (32nd in league)
Clean pocket completion percentage - 69.5% (29th in league)

It also didn't help that the Bengals' receivers had an average target separation of 1.46 yards beyond the LOS, which was last in the league.

For comparison sake for target separation (distance of separation from nearest defender):
John Ross - 1.77 yards (21st in league among WRs)
Tyler Boyd - 1.33 yards (81st in league among WRs)
Tyler Eifert - 1.37 yards (28th in league among TEs)
Auden Tate - 1.09 yards (102nd in league among WRs)
Alex Erickson - 1.52 yards (48th in league among WRs)

So basically, Dalton wasn't accurate enough getting his receivers the ball but most of the receivers weren't getting much separation to help Dalton out.

(07-13-2020, 01:38 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Evan McPhillips just put the worst QBS in 2019 in uncatchable ball rate
Andy was 2ND to dead last with 24% .of all the QBS listed Josh Allen is the only
One starting this year. Very telling stat on how possibly AD was really
Handcuffing the big play chances for the WRS last year

Pretty wild how Andy went from a fairly accurate passer to completely inaccurate in a couple years.

Cannot help but get excited in now having the 2nd most accurate passer of all time in college now our Bengals QB.

Wish all the best for Andy though, hope he does well in Dallas and takes Dak's spot. Isn't going to happen but still...

(07-13-2020, 01:59 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep.

Here's a link that goes a little more in-depth for Dalton's stats - https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/andy-dalton/

Notice the Efficiency section...
True Passer Rating (removes unpressured throwaways and dropped passes) - 69.5 (34th in league)
True Completion Percentage (same things removed as above) - 65.6% (31st in league)
Play-Action Completion Percentage - 60.3% (31st in league)
Red Zone Completion percentage - 51.4% (35th in league)
Deep ball completion percentage - 34.6% (21st in league)
Pressured completion percentage - 26.2% (32nd in league)
Clean pocket completion percentage - 69.5% (29th in league)

It also didn't help that the Bengals' receivers had an average target separation of 1.46 yards beyond the LOS, which was last in the league.

For comparison sake for target separation (distance of separation from nearest defender):
John Ross - 1.77 yards (21st in league among WRs)
Tyler Boyd - 1.33 yards (81st in league among WRs)
Tyler Eifert - 1.37 yards (28th in league among TEs)
Auden Tate - 1.09 yards (102nd in league among WRs)
Alex Erickson - 1.52 yards (48th in league among WRs)

So basically, Dalton wasn't accurate enough getting his receivers the ball but most of the receivers weren't getting much separation to help Dalton out.

Thanks for this Ocho, tells a lot. Think with a QB that can throw Receivers open this will change.

Hope Ross starts to come around and catch the ball better and run better routes.

What is nice about Boyd is he doesn't need a ton of separation, he still catches the ball and runs great crisp routes.

Tee Higgins I think was a great pick with his great hands and size.

(07-13-2020, 01:59 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Pretty wild how Andy went from a fairly accurate passer to completely inaccurate in a couple years.

I believe the thumb injuries had a huge effect on his accuracy.

(07-13-2020, 01:38 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Evan McPhillips just put the worst QBS in 2019 in uncatchable ball rate
Andy was 2ND to dead last with 24% .of all the QBS listed Josh Allen is the only
One starting this year. Very telling stat on how possibly AD was really
Handcuffing the big play chances for the WRS last year

Yea... I don't put all of that on Dalton's shoulders, it's a team effort. Andy didn't have the greatest of O lines and was without Green the entire season. I mean Ryan Finley got a shot last year and struggled mightily with the same offense, I'm not ready to right off Finley as a decent back up in the league just yet. I have no doubt Dalton's numbers were bad last year, I mean he got benched for a rookie, but if you check his numbers from prior season's, when he had a better team around him, he's a good(not great) NFL QB.

(07-13-2020, 02:07 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I believe the thumb injuries had a huge effect on his accuracy.

That will do it.

(07-13-2020, 01:59 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep.

Here's a link that goes a little more in-depth for Dalton's stats - https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/andy-dalton/

Notice the Efficiency section...
True Passer Rating (removes unpressured throwaways and dropped passes) - 69.5 (34th in league)
True Completion Percentage (same things removed as above) - 65.6% (31st in league)
Play-Action Completion Percentage - 60.3% (31st in league)
Red Zone Completion percentage - 51.4% (35th in league)
Deep ball completion percentage - 34.6% (21st in league)
Pressured completion percentage - 26.2% (32nd in league)
Clean pocket completion percentage - 69.5% (29th in league)

It also didn't help that the Bengals' receivers had an average target separation of 1.46 yards beyond the LOS, which was last in the league.

For comparison sake for target separation (distance of separation from nearest defender):
John Ross - 1.77 yards (21st in league among WRs)
Tyler Boyd - 1.33 yards (81st in league among WRs)
Tyler Eifert - 1.37 yards (28th in league among TEs)
Auden Tate - 1.09 yards (102nd in league among WRs)
Alex Erickson - 1.52 yards (48th in league among WRs)

So basically, Dalton wasn't accurate enough getting his receivers the ball but most of the receivers weren't getting much separation to help Dalton out.

That sounds like to me it comes back to the OC and WR position coach in regards to getting seperation.
If WRs/TEs run the same predcatble routes out of the same formation  and down and distance then DBS
Have a 50/50 % or better reading the route staying on the hip or possibly jumping the route in anticipation 

I noticed last year the targets would run the same 3,4 routes over and over. DBs are smart in this league.
They look at game film and look at tendacies. 
How,many times did Andy get bailed out on the throw with no zip to the outside hash and the DB read the rout
Or Andys eyes and get his hands on it and drop it. ?

BC. BICKNELL AND ZT BETTER DO A BETTER JOB OF SCHEMING UP THE PASSING GAME ON SUNDAY 

They also better work on those jailbreak plays where Burrow will have move out of pocket and
Look for WRs breaking off their route and creating seperation downfield that Big Ben does so well.

(07-13-2020, 02:07 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote: Yea... I don't put all of that on Dalton's shoulders, it's a team effort. Andy didn't have the greatest of O lines and was without Green the entire season. I mean Ryan Finley got a shot last year and struggled mightily with the same offense, I'm not ready to right off Finley as a decent back up in the league just yet. I have no doubt Dalton's numbers were bad last year, I mean he got benched for a rookie, but if you check his numbers from prior season's, when he had a better team around him, he's a good(not great) NFL QB.

Agree on Dalton, disagree on Finley. Finley has a noodle arm, he will need a miracle to get up to par with the NFL.

Terrible pick by Taylor.

(07-13-2020, 02:13 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Agree on Dalton, disagree on Finley. Finley has a noodle arm, he will need a miracle to get up to par with the NFL.

Terrible pick by Taylor.

Finely won't be in the NFL too much longer after this year. Patrick Mahomes sister has a stronger arm then him.
Finely is a backup CFL QB at best 

I know there is a (big) place for metrics in sports today. They can definitely be useful In discussion and debate. But more often than not I judge players the way I always have, with my eyeballs and a little common sense.

Do these numbers take into account any of the following: Pressure, Time to throw, WR seperation, Where target ranks in progression, Base Defense, etc?

These numbers can't exist in a vacuum. There's a lot that goes into them when valuing a QB's actual accuray beyond whether a ball is catchable (subjective). I can almost guarantee that QB's with below average lines throw more "uncatchable" balls than they would if they had better protection.

I'd like to see these numbers for all of Andy's previous seasons. Has he always struggled with this? I doubt it. Did his skills magically fall of the map at age age 31? Again, I doubt it.

So while these numbers help to paint a picture they tell me something I already knew: Andy's play dropped big time due to a lack of talent around him. He had an awful line, below average weapons in the pass game, and he was paired with a run game that was among the league's worst through his first 8 starts.

I know he stunk. The question is why he stunk. These numbers don't help in trying to figure that out.

(07-13-2020, 02:23 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I know there is a (big) place for metrics in sports today.  They can definitely be useful In discussion and debate.  But more often than not I judge players the way I always have, with my eyeballs and a little common sense.

Do these numbers take into account any of the following:  Pressure, Time to throw, WR seperation, Where target ranks in progression, Base Defense, etc?

These numbers can't exist in a vacuum. There's a lot that goes into them when valuing a QB's actual accuray beyond whether a ball is catchable (subjective).  I can almost guarantee that QB's with below average lines throw more "uncatchable" balls than they would if they had better protection.

I'd like to see these numbers for all of Andy's previous seasons.  Has he always struggled with this? I doubt it.  Did his skills magically fall of the map at age age 31? Again, I doubt it.

So while these numbers help to paint a picture they tell me something I already knew: Andy's play dropped big time due to a lack of talent around him. He had an awful line, below average weapons in the pass game, and he was paired with a run game that was among the league's worst through his first 8 starts.

I know he stunk. The question is why he stunk. These numbers don't help in trying to figure that out.

There are definitely a lot of factors going into why Dalton stunk last year. Still he stunk and I have been a Dalton supporter.

Also, if you look at Burrow last season. (I know Fred will attack me for this) Burrow didn't have the best protection and yet he 
still put together the best season of all time by a college QB. Some QB's are special and can make Offensive Lines better than 
they really are. Thank God we got one of those special QB's.

We need our OL to be good in run blocking and okay in pass protection and I think the Offense could be really good with Joe.

We’re still talking about Andy?

Besides the thumb injury, I think Dalton got shell shocked playing behind the worst line in the NFL for three years. Even when there wasn’t pressure, he was flinching and tap dancing.

(07-13-2020, 01:59 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Pretty wild how Andy went from a fairly accurate passer to completely inaccurate in a couple years.

Cannot help but get excited in now having the 2nd most accurate passer of all time in college now our Bengals QB.

Wish all the best for Andy though, hope he does well in Dallas and takes Dak's spot. Isn't going to happen but still...

This year will really be a nice test.. if we don;t improve in accuracy this year.. i think it will be very telling that it was a bit more than the QB or sadly Burrow College performance did not transfer over to NFL in his first year...

(07-13-2020, 01:59 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep.

Here's a link that goes a little more in-depth for Dalton's stats - https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/andy-dalton/

Notice the Efficiency section...
True Passer Rating (removes unpressured throwaways and dropped passes) - 69.5 (34th in league)
True Completion Percentage (same things removed as above) - 65.6% (31st in league)
Play-Action Completion Percentage - 60.3% (31st in league)
Red Zone Completion percentage - 51.4% (35th in league)
Deep ball completion percentage - 34.6% (21st in league)
Pressured completion percentage - 26.2% (32nd in league)
Clean pocket completion percentage - 69.5% (29th in league)

It also didn't help that the Bengals' receivers had an average target separation of 1.46 yards beyond the LOS, which was last in the league.

For comparison sake for target separation (distance of separation from nearest defender):
John Ross - 1.77 yards (21st in league among WRs)
Tyler Boyd - 1.33 yards (81st in league among WRs)
Tyler Eifert - 1.37 yards (28th in league among TEs)
Auden Tate - 1.09 yards (102nd in league among WRs)
Alex Erickson - 1.52 yards (48th in league among WRs)

So basically, Dalton wasn't accurate enough getting his receivers the ball but most of the receivers weren't getting much separation to help Dalton out.

Thanks, Ocho....A few things jumped out at me from the link you shared:  WHile ranked #11 in attempts, Dalton was ranked #23 in deep ball attempts.  His supporting cast efficiency was #32.  His protection rating was #19.  Add all these things up and is screams:  Joe Burrow.  The protection wasn't as bad as it is made out to be.  A mobile QB with better downfield vision and accuracy could make a huge impact.  The supporting cast efficiency could be due to a lack of Green and, often, Ross, and could be improved with both as well as Tee Higgins.  Having more time to GET open and a larger field to force the defense to defend (I realize it is still the same dimensions, but defenders could sit on routes when you rarely attempt to stretch the field, and lack in deep ball accuracy.

I don't put this all on Dalton, as he didn't have the cast, protection, or scheme right until later in the year.  However, it is clear that Burrow's strengths can improve a good number of these measures and hopefully have a significant effect on the scoreboard.  

(07-13-2020, 01:38 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Evan McPhillips just put the worst QBS in 2019 in uncatchable ball rate
Andy was 2ND to dead last with 24% .of all the QBS listed Josh Allen is the only
One starting this year. Very telling stat on how possibly AD was really
Handcuffing the big play chances for the WRS last year

Andy had a bad year last year. By far his worst. The coaching was as bad as we've seen from a Bengal's staff since the days of Dave Shula. In fact, Shula put up a better record with less talent.

 

Andy always needed a perfect storm of talent and game planning Round him to succeed. Good OCs here got the most
Out of him. When he got garbage OCs like Lazor and Zampese Andy didn't have enough to improvise when their
Predictable schemes got exposed