(01-09-2021, 02:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I can't see the Bengals keeping Uzomah at his salary while also paying for Ertz. More than likely, Uzomah would have to be cut so that the extra cap space can help cover the cost of Ertz. My only nervousness for bringing in Ertz is that he's already 30 years old and this team probably isn't a contender next year. I think the Bengals are probably at least a year or two from contending at the earliest.

With all due respect, if Bengals used this analogy every player 30 and over should traded/cut n the off season. I am not against it, but Geno and others are on wrong side of 30. I would rather have Ertz than Geno in 2021. I think he would be a better player and contribute more and based on 2020 would be a lot cheaper than Geno.

(01-09-2021, 02:06 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I do not agree Parsons should be considered at 5.
An off-ball LB does not have the same value as an elite TE in today's NFL.
Out of the top 10 LBs in the NFL in 2020, none of them were 1st round picks. All were picked between Rds 2-4.

As for TEs being in top 5, you clearly didn't even bother doing research.
TJ Hockenson had the third-most receiving yards amongst TEs, and he was picked 8th overall in 2019.
Noah Fant, another 1st rounder in 2019, was 6th most.
Evan Engram (1st round 2017) was 8th most.

Kelce should have been drafted higher, but he went to UC, which was not a Power 5 school. Had he went to a Power 5 school and put up his senior year stats, he likely would have been a 2nd or even 1st round pick.

As for 40 time for Pitts, how do you know it's 4.7? He hasn't ran the 40 yet at the Combine or Pro Day. 
I believe you are reading a report that he ran 4.70 IN HIGH SCHOOL (https://www.profootballnetwork.com/three-headed-monster-2021-tight-end-group/). 
He looks faster than 4.70 in the games I've watched this year. We'll see come Combine time.

I am not saying teams just look at 40 times but fans tend to get fixed on it with media help.  Teams doing their own workouts with players and some other features of the Combine have better ways to judge speed.    i wonder if teams put them in game day equipment and time them..that would be interesting times to compare.

(01-09-2021, 02:11 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Because professional sports are leagues of talent. The most talented players give you the best results, regardless of position, which lessens the burden on other positions around them. If you have an average player at a position, the players around them at times have to help because of their shortcomings. Of course there's no guarantee how a player will perform. That's why you look at the history of players at certain positions and use that in your evaluation of consideration.

Picking for need, specifically in the first, drastically lessens your chance of getting a top notch player because in any given year, that position group is not going to be as talented as players at the top of other groups. So you're taking a player of lesser talent, in a position you're weak, in a spot that's usually reserved for guys that are at the top of their position group. NFL teams want the most talented players that they can get, regardless of position. That's why you take the most talented players at the top of the draft and take players in a position of need later in the draft, because later rounds are filled with guys of more equal talent.

So you are saying that moving a few spots 5 to 8 in then NFL is a mass difference of talent? in majority of cases that would not be right since as you move up the ladder of sports, the talent differences gets much smaller. 

Every year teams pick position over best player available..and they are successful, others pick the opposite and they are successful also.  In this situation we are not talking about moving out of rounds, we are talking spots.

I'd be most happy with Sewell at 5, especially if they half-ass free agency on the o-line.

After him, I want Chase or Parsons. I do have a little more reservation about Parsons after reading about his alleged lack of maturity.

Those are the 3 that are acceptable.

3 more that wouldn't necessarily piss me off are Surtain, Slater, and maybe Smith. I'm iffy with Smith due to his slight build. He looks like a guy that will be hurt a lot in the NFL. Surtain is said to be one of the football-smart DBs to come out in a long time, which I like. I like the idea of a secondary with Waynes/Bates/Bell/Surtain.

Pitts would probably be okay for me, but like others, I'm not sure how he'd work out in ZT's system. I think Burrow would use him just fine ay the end of the day, but I'd rather have Chase if you're looking for a weapon.

(01-10-2021, 01:57 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So you are saying that moving a few spots 5 to 8 in then NFL is a mass difference of talent? in majority of cases that would not be right since as you move up the ladder of sports, the talent differences gets much smaller. 

Every year teams pick position over best player available..and they are successful, others pick the opposite and they are successful also.  In this situation we are not talking about moving out of rounds, we are talking spots.

More like 5 to 10ish (for where he should be picked) but it doesn't make a "mass difference". That's a strawman--you said it, not me. The higher the pick, the more talented the player. Taking Parsons at 5 (because of need), when very talented players at positions of higher value are there is dumb. Picking Parsons around 10+ is more in line simply because of position value and the more talented skill players are gone by then. 

It has nothing to do with his talent vs someone else's talent.

It's already been pointed out that even the best ILBs don't make an immediate impact. Do you think the Bengals need players that are going to take 2-4 years to develop into solid, if not great players? No. They need someone at the top of the draft that's going to make an immediate impact on the team; skill position, protect the QB or get after a QB. 

That's just the NFL way. They value positions more or less important for a reason. "Every year teams pick position over best player available...and are successful"--in later rounds mostly, unless they're a perennial winner that doesn't have a great need for more overall talent and they can afford to take a player based on their need. The Bengals don't have a roster full of talent that would allow them to draft a stack linebacker, because they're short there.

Never did give my list.

1. Sewell
2. Chase
3. Pitts
4. Surtain

5. Slater/Darrisaw

That 5th spot is tough for me right now. Who would people prefer out of those two if we’re dead set on a OT and Sewell is gone?

(01-10-2021, 02:48 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Never did give my list.

1. Sewell
2. Chase
3. Pitts
4. Surtain

5. Slater/Darrisaw

That 5th spot is tough for me right now. Who would people prefer out of those two if we’re dead set on a OT and Sewell is gone?

Of course I'm going to give the nod to the guy who played this year and did so extremely well. 

My top 5:

Sewell
Smith
Pitts
Darrasaw
Paye

(01-09-2021, 08:37 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: With all due respect, if Bengals used this analogy every player 30 and over should traded/cut n the off season. I am not against it, but Geno and others are on wrong side of 30. I would rather have Ertz than Geno in 2021. I think he would be a better player and contribute more and based on 2020 would be a lot cheaper than Geno.

I want Geno cut too.

If the Bengals address the line in FA I would trade down as many times as we could to get a late round 1st round Tackle selection and gather extra 2nd and 3rd runs picks. We have many holes to fill and I think this is a deep draft at many positions.

(01-10-2021, 01:57 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So you are saying that moving a few spots 5 to 8 in then NFL is a mass difference of talent? in majority of cases that would not be right since as you move up the ladder of sports, the talent differences gets much smaller. 

Every year teams pick position over best player available..and they are successful, others pick the opposite and they are successful also.  In this situation we are not talking about moving out of rounds, we are talking spots.

It can make a huge difference or very little depending on the draft class and how the picks fall.  If there are 5 elite prospects in the draft class and you move from 5 to 8, you will probably get a significantly worse player.  If the top 8 are graded closely, then you won't.  You compound this effect when you're drafting based on need and not using bpa.  These weren't in the top 10, but examples involving the Bengals including missing out on Ragnow and winding up with Price, missing DeCastro and getting Zeitler, and missing on Stephen Jackson for Chris Perry.

(01-10-2021, 05:16 PM)Whatever Wrote: It can make a huge difference or very little depending on the draft class and how the picks fall.  If there are 5 elite prospects in the draft class and you move from 5 to 8, you will probably get a significantly worse player.  If the top 8 are graded closely, then you won't.  You compound this effect when you're drafting based on need and not using bpa.  These weren't in the top 10, but examples involving the Bengals including missing out on Ragnow and winding up with Price, missing DeCastro and getting Zeitler, and missing on Stephen Jackson for Chris Perry.

...and not trading down got us Akili Smith..

(01-10-2021, 05:43 PM)bfine32 Wrote: ...and not trading down got us Akili Smith..

Well, Akili was the 3rd QB off the board in that draft.  The Bengals missed out on the 1st player at those positions off the board because of those trades.  Besides which, if the Bengals had taken Champ Bailey that year instead of Akili, I doubt people would complain.  That's more a cautionary tale about drafting need over bpa than passing on trade downs.  

(01-10-2021, 05:16 PM)Whatever Wrote: It can make a huge difference or very little depending on the draft class and how the picks fall.  If there are 5 elite prospects in the draft class and you move from 5 to 8, you will probably get a significantly worse player.  If the top 8 are graded closely, then you won't.  You compound this effect when you're drafting based on need and not using bpa.  These weren't in the top 10, but examples involving the Bengals including missing out on Ragnow and winding up with Price, missing DeCastro and getting Zeitler, and missing on Stephen Jackson for Chris Perry.

Again hard to support moving 3 spots in 1st round especially in top 10, you end up with a major drop in class in the NFL draft..pretty much opinion  based.  Sure you have isolated in your thread but vs thousands of drafts picks through the years.    I just don;t buy your analysis of limited elite prospects in the NFL draft...  it is hard to again quantify "elite" in College transferring over to the NFL and if you look at most drafts there area multiple positions players that are graded at the high level plus NFL draft history is littered with elite busts too. These are the discussions that happen in the War Rooms,  Need vs. BPA.. risk vs. reward..etc//not all work out either way.  I would say more teams end up trading up for Need and more teams tend to trade back for BPA but again opinion based 
  

If we don't end up with Chase or Sewell, trade back. Anything else and I would be dissapointed. We need 3 QB's to go early really bad imho. I don't see anyone else worth #5 pick.

(01-11-2021, 10:28 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Again hard to support moving 3 spots in 1st round especially in top 10, you end up with a major drop in class in the NFL draft..pretty much opinion  based.  Sure you have isolated in your thread but vs thousands of drafts picks through the years.    I just don;t buy your analysis of limited elite prospects in the NFL draft...  it is hard to again quantify "elite" in College transferring over to the NFL and if you look at most drafts there area multiple positions players that are graded at the high level plus NFL draft history is littered with elite busts too. These are the discussions that happen in the War Rooms,  Need vs. BPA.. risk vs. reward..etc//not all work out either way.  I would say more teams end up trading up for Need and more teams tend to trade back for BPA but again opinion based 
  

You're typing a lot of words but not saying much. It's not opinion based. 

Go look at All Pros and Pro Bowlers. Where do the vast majority of Pro Bowlers come from? Yep, the top/middle of the first round.

Go look at where 60% of All Pros were drafted at. Yep, 1st round. 
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/2/21/18233383/first-rounders-dominate-the-ranks-of-nfl-all-pro-selections

First rounders are 5x more likely to make All Pro. 

In any given draft, after the first 10 picks are made, the talent level starts to drop increasingly precipitously. 

There are certainly exceptions but they're called exceptions for a reason. 

(01-11-2021, 04:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: You're typing a lot of words but not saying much. It's not opinion based. 

Go look at All Pros and Pro Bowlers. Where do the vast majority of Pro Bowlers come from? Yep, the top/middle of the first round.

Go look at where 60% of All Pros were drafted at. Yep, 1st round. 
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/2/21/18233383/first-rounders-dominate-the-ranks-of-nfl-all-pro-selections

First rounders are 5x more likely to make All Pro. 

In any given draft, after the first 10 picks are made, the talent level starts to drop increasingly precipitously. 

There are certainly exceptions but they're called exceptions for a reason. 

And u go so off topic it is hard to respond, we started talking 5 to 8 move , need vs bpa move,you venture into 1st round all pros etc.. your logic is all over the place, might as well move on from those discussion

(01-11-2021, 05:04 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: And u go so off topic it is hard to respond,  we started talking 5 to 8 move  , need vs bpa move,you venture into 1st round all pros etc.. your logic is all over the place, might as well move on from those discussion

Not off topic at all. I already touched on the '5 to 8' in another post. No use repeating myself. 

You said this,   I just don;t buy your analysis of limited elite prospects in the NFL draft...  it is hard to again quantify "elite" in College transferring over to the NFL and if you look at most drafts there area multiple positions players that are graded at the high level plus NFL draft history is littered with elite busts too.

That's what my previous post is touching on.

(01-11-2021, 04:03 PM)yang Wrote: If we don't end up with Chase or Sewell, trade back. Anything else and I would be dissapointed. We need 3 QB's to go early really bad imho. I don't see anyone else worth #5 pick.

I’d prefer we go offense in the 1st, but I think Patrick Surtain is worth a top 5 pick.

(01-10-2021, 05:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Between Slater and Darrisaw? I’ll take Eichenberg

I agree. I would not want him at 5 I think we can trade way down and sign him.

(01-10-2021, 05:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Between Slater and Darrisaw? I’ll take Eichenberg

Hey we're talking about 1st Round prospects here.