(03-09-2021, 06:49 PM)J24 Wrote: So Lawson should get punished for others not doing their job? Wow great argument Einstein!

Who else isn't doing their job if the QB is still able to get the pass off? Just a little quicker, or maybe feeling a tap on the shoulder after the release. Shouldn't the point of the DE be not to let he QB get the pass off? 

Too much credit is being given to DE's who are there a day late and a dollar short, but hurried the QB, forcing them to step up and into the throw for chunk yardage and completions!

Not saying hurries are bad, but they aren't sacks, and only DE's who can't bring down qb's or stop a pass from happening point to them.

____ 2021 pic.twitter.com/2K1QkvPbPw

— carl lawson (@carllawson55) March 9, 2021

 

(03-09-2021, 06:43 PM)jj22 Wrote: I'd say they are smart to let someone else overpay him if it is more than 8-10m a year. 

What do you think he's worth?

His injury history is what scares me.  It goes all the way back to college.

But I still say he gets 10-12 million a year.  And it is my understanding that you don't think we should pay and DE/Edge player more than $8 million.  Is that correct?  

(03-09-2021, 06:54 PM)jj22 Wrote: Too much credit is being given to DE's who are there a day late and a dollar short, but hurried the QB, forcing them to step up and into the throw for chunk yardage and completions!

You are just flat out wrong about this.  There is tons of data that shows pressure, not just sacks< effect the efficiency of a QB.

To me it is silly to judge a player just by one stat when it amounts to less than one play per game.  Not a single player in the league had 16 sacks last year.  It does not make sense to say what a player does on 99% of the plays don't matter.

(03-09-2021, 06:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: His injury history is what scares me.  It goes all the way back to college.

But I still say he gets 10-12 million a year.  And it is my understanding that you don't think we should pay and DE/Edge player more than $8 million.  Is that correct?  

Not one's with 5.5 sacks and never hit double digits. Correct.

Batted balls (Dunlap) I take more into consideration (they at least stop the pass from completion), moreso than "hurries". 

(03-09-2021, 06:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are just flat out wrong about this.  There is tons of data that shows pressure, not just sacks< effect the efficiency of a QB.

To me it is silly to judge a player just by one stat when it amounts to less than one play per game.  Not a single player in the league had 16 sacks last year.  It does not make sense to say what a player does on 99% of the plays don't matter.

There is tons of data showing it is beneficial. Not my argument, but that isn't the case with the Bengals or Lawson. Care to show passers passer ratings the last 3 years? People won't because the hurries for Lawson, did nothing to help the pass defense. So why pay him for them. Just quickened the completion and chunk plays. That's the issue.

If it actually effected the passer then I'd be all for it. I can't remember the Dline stopping many QB's the last 3 years. Not enough to pay 14m for "hurries".

Reminds me of when people say "not everything is a competition". Well it is to winners.

Only those who can't get sacks downplay them.

I'd say tackle for losses is equally equivalent to sacks, and are underappreciated when given the love for sacks. But "hurries" I'd have to see each individual one to see if the pass was completed before placing them on a high pedestal.

If the pass was completed, I'd be hesitant to pay for what just amounts to a quicker beatdown.

(03-09-2021, 07:04 PM)jj22 Wrote: There is tons of data showing it is beneficial. Not my argument, but that isn't the case with the Bengals or Lawson. Care to show passers passer ratings the last 3 years? People won't because the hurries for Lawson, did nothing to help the pass defense. So why pay him for them.  Just quickened the completion and chunk plays. That's the issue.

Again you are using team stats top evaluate a player.  It is like saying a LT is bad because the rest of the O-line keeps the QB from putting up good numbers, or that relief pitchers are ineffective because the starters lose all the games.

And BTW I just showed that the Bengals pass efficiency defense with Lawson ranked higher than the offense's pass efficiency ranking with Burrow.

Funny how the same people screaming that Burrow needs better protection from pressure also claim that pressure does not effect other QBs in the league.

(03-09-2021, 07:10 PM)jj22 Wrote: Only those who can't get sacks downplay them.

This is 100% BS.  As I have said before there are multiple sources that compare QB production "under pressure" compared to from a "clean pocket".


You really have to be completely clueless about football to not know this.

Pressure and hurries stopped Burrow from completing passes, if they hadn't and didn't get him killed, then it wouldn't be so pressing. We saw that with our own eyes.

Again. That wasn't the case with Lawson as QB's still dominated our D. We saw this with our own eyes.

When a QB has to step up and/or slides to the right/left to complete the pass, that is considered a "hurry" but is that enough to hang your hat on?

I think hurries have to be viewed individually to really determine if they were worthy of 14m. Which I won't do because we've witnessed passers eat up the D. But maybe the Bengals FO has.

I’m not really going to lose any sleep over the fact both Lawson and Jackson may be gone. The defense has been bad with them. I wish they’d show sour Lou the door while they are at it.

Let’s see what the bengals do in free agency first. Sign Darryl Williams and joe thuney, boom ol fixed.

Draft the impact skill player they seem to be coveting with their first pick, hope a good de falls to them in 2 and get a cb in 3.

I have not looked at the numbers to see if it’s feasible but would love to see the above moves and drop geno and sign Trey Hendrickson.

Even if they didn’t sign Williams they could go ol in 2 if they sign a de in free agency. Lots of options for them if choose to take advantage


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(03-09-2021, 06:48 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Not a chance.  There's no way Carl Lawson is worth anywhere near the franchise tag, much less "easily worth" that amount.

You don't franchise guys that had 1 good but not great year, with 14 career starts, and who missed 13 of the 32 games the two years prior.  Not especially when they're coming off 5.5 sacks.

You can mock the sacks total all you like, but that's what drives the market more than anything else for edge rushers.  No one is saying pressures and QB hits are meaningless, but you won't find too many DE's with sub 10 sacks inking 17 million dollar deals the following seasons.

Fwiw, spotrac has Lawson's market value at 8.8 mil per, projected out at a 3 year 30.3 million dollar deal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/carl-lawson-21858/market-value/

I wouldn't pretend this site is dead accurate, because no one can set the values other than the teams spending the money.  But they're usually in the right ballpark when it comes to these.  They may be a little low on this one, because his price will go up in weaker FA class for his position.   But it won't go up all that much.

I'll personally be really surprised if Lawson sees north of 12 mil per. (I think that number lies in 8-12 range)  And I'll eat my hat, take a video of me doing it and post it on here, if he see 16+ mil.

1.) He has had three good seasons while he has been here. Were not dealing with some one hit wonder like you claim. The only knock on him is wether or not he can stay healthy.
When he has played he has been our best pass rusher.

2.) Michael Johnson literally got paid in 2014 for a similar season to what Carl Lawson did this last season. 

Lawson is going to get payed in free agency. if not he will go to contender light it up and get paid next season. He is an elite player that we will miss him next season and beyond.

Anyway you look at it the Bengals now have zero pass rushers which is the second most important part of building a team... In an average defensive line market and below average defensive line draft class.

They are also down two starting corners though the FA Market and Draft classes for Corner is higher quality.

(03-09-2021, 07:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is 100% BS.  As I have said before there are multiple sources that compare QB production "under pressure" compared to from a "clean pocket".


You really have to be completely clueless about football to not know this.

Why aren't you talking about Lawson and his contributions to the D we see every Sunday? I can't speak on other teams or QB production under pressure vs. Clean pockets. 

I can speak on what I've seen QB's do to our D the last 3/4 years. And "hurries" I guess got them a 125 passer rating and 300+ yards instead of a 140 and 500+ yards. So that's good I guess. Is that your argument? Because the D hasn't stopped anyone (except Big Ben) in recent memory. So these "hurries". Well, I won't break the bank for them.

Maybe on other Defenses where they actually helped or effected the passer.

(03-09-2021, 06:54 PM)Bengalholic Wrote:

____ 2021 pic.twitter.com/2K1QkvPbPw

— carl lawson (@carllawson55) March 9, 2021

 

Wow, that will definitely sting, if it turns into reality.

Meanwhile, most of the petty fans on here have chosen to ignore that post, so that they can continue their petty arguments and attempt to "be right"..  

(03-09-2021, 06:54 PM)jj22 Wrote: Who else isn't doing their job if the QB is still able to get the pass off? Just a little quicker, or maybe feeling a tap on the shoulder after the release. Shouldn't the point of the DE be not to let he QB get the pass off? 

Too much credit is being given to DE's who are there a day late and a dollar short, but hurried the QB, forcing them to step up and into the throw for chunk yardage and completions!

Not saying hurries are bad, but they aren't sacks, and only DE's who can't bring down qb's or stop a pass from happening point to them.

Well for starters we can look at the back seven for not being able to cover the Wrs, TEs, and RBs long enough to get the sack. Secondly the other Defensive Lineman for not doing there job. 
I certainly wouldn't blame the one guy that's doing all the work.

Category                   Romeo Okwara         Vs.          Carl Lawson

Age                             25                                                  25
Height                         6'4                                                 6'2
Career Starts                28                                                  14
Career Sacks                20                                                  20
2020 Sacks                  10                                                 5.5
QB Hits                        18                                                  32
2020 Tackles                44                                                  36
2020 Forced Frumbles    3                                                    2
2020 Pass Deflect          1                                                    0

Okwara currently has a market value of 10.1 mil per according to spotrac:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/romeo-okwara-19531/market-value/

If we can come to a reasonable agreement with Lawson then great.  If not, they are other options available in free agency.

Here's some other examples with market values set by spotrac:

Trey Hendrickson - 10.3 mil https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/trey-hendrickson-21845/market-value/

Justin Houston - 11.5 mil https://overthecap.com/player/justin-houston/517/

Jadeveon Clowney - 6.5 mil https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/jadeveon-clowney-14410/market-value/

Oliver Vernon is another name, which I can't find a valuation on.  But he's an above average defensive end, who will be coming on a discount because of an achilies injury (same injury as Uzomah)

Fwiw, there's load more guys, and this is before any cuts.  Who knows what the market will look like next week.

PS Okwara, Hendrickson, Houston and Veronon all come from base 4-3 systems, with Clowney being the exception (He's just a physical freak that you could take a chance on to fit here)

(03-09-2021, 07:23 PM)jj22 Wrote: Why aren't you talking about Lawson and his contributions to the D we see every Sunday? I can't speak on other teams or QB production under pressure vs. Clean pockets. 

I can speak on what I've seen QB's do to our D the last 3/4 years. And "hurries" I guess got them a 125 passer rating and 300+ yards instead of a 140 and 500+ yards. So that's good I guess. Is that your argument? Because the D hasn't stopped anyone (except Big Ben) in recent memory. So these "hurries". Well, I won't break the bank for them.

Maybe on other Defenses where they actually helped or effected the passer.

Our pass efficiency defense with Lawson ranked higher (22nd) than our pass efficiency offense with Burrow (25th).

So why does your logic only apply to one side of the argument?  Why is Lawson judged only on team stats while Burrow is not?  Why does pressure matter when talking about our QB but not opposing QBs?

(03-09-2021, 07:40 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Fwiw, I just don't read into ir that much.

He's now officially due to hit free agency.  That doesn't mean we can't come to an agreement with him.  And it makes perfect sense he's putting it out there that's he's looking for a deal (the best deal he can get).

Maybe I'm just getting too old, but I have trouble trying to read into social media posts.  I've been mistaken too many times trying to read between the lines for the post to be completely meaningless or harmless.  Who knows exactly what he is trying to say here?

I would interpret that social media post to mean that talks with the Bengals are still "far apart", and his agent has assured him that the price he's asking will most definitely be paid by some team.

(03-09-2021, 07:22 PM)J24 Wrote: 1.) He has had three good seasons while he has been here. Were not dealing with some one hit wonder like you claim. The only knock on him is wether or not he can stay healthy.
When he has played he has been our best pass rusher.

2.) Michael Johnson literally got paid in 2014 for a similar season to what Carl Lawson did this last season. 

Lawson is going to get payed in free agency. if not he will go to contender light it up and get paid next season. He is an elite player that we will miss him next season and beyond.

11.5 Sacks in 2012