(08-31-2020, 02:50 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not particularly good?  With next to no other weapons around him, and questionable QB play, he put up 1152 yards rushing at a 4.3 YPC clip, AND had 76 receptions for 522 yards.  He was their only offensive weapon, and he still produced like that playing in a division with two playoff defenses.  

You might say he isn't a good person, or teammate, and I have no idea about those things, but I would hardly say he wasn't particularly good.  

(08-31-2020, 02:50 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not particularly good?  With next to no other weapons around him, and questionable QB play, he put up 1152 yards rushing at a 4.3 YPC clip, AND had 76 receptions for 522 yards.  He was their only offensive weapon, and he still produced like that playing in a division with two playoff defenses.  

You might say he isn't a good person, or teammate, and I have no idea about those things, but I would hardly say he wasn't particularly good.  

(08-31-2020, 02:52 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Definitely agree with this, he is a good player for sure.

(08-31-2020, 05:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fournette Career Numbers (After 3 years)
666 rushes, 2,631 yards (4.0 YPC)
134 catches, 1,009 yards (7.3 AVG)

That's from the 5th overall pick. Averaging under 900 rushing yards per year. You brought up his 4.3 YPC last year, but the year before that he had 3.3 YPC and the year before that 3.9 YPC. Also that 4.3 YPC is 2nd the lowest among all 16 1k rushers last year (only beats Joe Mixon).

He's ~7th best RB from his own draft.

I don't see what he brings to the table that journeymen like Carlos Hyde can't, and Hyde is on his 5th team in 4 years.

(08-31-2020, 05:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fournette Career Numbers (After 3 years)
666 rushes, 2,631 yards (4.0 YPC)
134 catches, 1,009 yards (7.3 AVG)

That's from the 5th overall pick. Averaging under 900 rushing yards per year. You brought up his 4.3 YPC last year, but the year before that he had 3.3 YPC and the year before that 3.9 YPC. Also that 4.3 YPC is 2nd the lowest among all 16 1k rushers last year (only beats Joe Mixon).

He's ~7th best RB from his own draft.

I don't see what he brings to the table that journeymen like Carlos Hyde can't, and Hyde is on his 5th team in 4 years.

(08-31-2020, 03:36 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Great point

(08-31-2020, 05:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fournette Career Numbers (After 3 years)
666 rushes, 2,631 yards (4.0 YPC)
134 catches, 1,009 yards (7.3 AVG)

That's from the 5th overall pick. Averaging under 900 rushing yards per year. You brought up his 4.3 YPC last year, but the year before that he had 3.3 YPC and the year before that 3.9 YPC. Also that 4.3 YPC is 2nd the lowest among all 16 1k rushers last year (only beats Joe Mixon).

He's ~7th best RB from his own draft.

I don't see what he brings to the table that journeymen like Carlos Hyde can't, and Hyde is on his 5th team in 4 years.

(08-31-2020, 03:40 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The only way we claim him and pay him 4.6 million is to trade Gio and his salary or cut Gio

A combo of Mixon or Fournette on the goal line would add value, a rested back who is big and strong. But, if he has attitude issues, we should pass

(08-31-2020, 01:41 PM)BengalChris Wrote: He'll land somewhere and be productive, most likely. Bad attitude means it likely won't be with the Bengals though. If the Bengals do claim him, he'd come in knowing he wasn't numero uno.

(08-31-2020, 05:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fournette Career Numbers (After 3 years)
666 rushes, 2,631 yards (4.0 YPC)
134 catches, 1,009 yards (7.3 AVG)

That's from the 5th overall pick. Averaging under 900 rushing yards per year. You brought up his 4.3 YPC last year, but the year before that he had 3.3 YPC and the year before that 3.9 YPC. Also that 4.3 YPC is 2nd the lowest among all 16 1k rushers last year (only beats Joe Mixon).

He's ~7th best RB from his own draft.

I don't see what he brings to the table that journeymen like Carlos Hyde can't, and Hyde is on his 5th team in 4 years.

(08-31-2020, 12:53 PM)Au165 Wrote: To me, a claim would potentially signal some issue with Mixon that may be greater than we know. 

(08-31-2020, 05:26 PM)Whatever Wrote: Fournette averages over 100 yards from scrimmage a game.  The only reason his yards/season is down is because he missed 8 games in '18. Both his rushing yards/game and scrimmage yards/game are actually better than Joe Mixon's and the Jags OL is also pretty crappy. Plus, we're talking about him as a timeshare/fallback option depending on Joe.  I can see the debate over his character and the salary, but he's a feature back, no question. 

(08-31-2020, 05:45 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: This is my point.  Surrounding cast, even Mixon had better.  He had NOTHING around him.  Absolutely nothing.  He had injuries, too.  I wasn't justifying his draft position, I was countering someone that said he wasn't even "particularly good", which is a bunch of crap.  Put that guy on a team like pitt and watch out...which is a large part of why I drew attention to his release.  I don't want him going there.  

(08-31-2020, 06:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: On 22.2 touches per game, which is a pretty healthy amount. Missing games isn't an excuse though, because you're not good if you're not healthy. Even when healthy though, he doesn't do himself a ton of favors...

The guy only had 19 broken tackles in 398 rushes over the last two years... as a 230lb RB. That's 20.9 carries per broken tackle which is pretty pathetic.

For comparison, some other RBs carries per broken tackle over the last two years...
Joe Mixon: 17.2
Derrick Henry: 8.2
Saquon Barkley: 10.4
Nick Chubb: 9.1
Christian McCaffrey: 16.3
Ezekiel Elliott: 14.1
Chris Carson: 10.3
Phillip Lindsay: 10.7

As you can see, 20.9 is a huge number in comparison. 



Maybe. I just see a guy who can't stay healthy, and has only had 1 good year out of 3.

Pittsburgh can't be your example of where he'll thrive because they are allowed to hold all game long. Any RB will do well with an OL that is allowed to hold. They made Bell look like a HoF back and even made Connor a Pro Bowler. Heck, that OL held enough that even the washed up corpse of 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams put together a good season.

If you look at my top reply of my double-reply, you'll see that surrounding talent aside, Fournette hasn't done himself a ton of favors in getting extra yardage. He simply either doesn't run powerful or elusive enough to help himself as good RBs do.

(08-31-2020, 07:13 PM)Whatever Wrote: What are they considering a "broken tackle?"  Last year, Fournette was third in the league per Pro Football Reference in Yards After Contact with 792.  Mixon had 645 by comparison.  Fournette was also tied for 3rd best YAC/Carry at 3.0. Joe had 2.3 by comparison. Plus, he was still tied for 17th in Broken Tackles, so not bad, just not excellent.

I don't think the guy is Christian McCafferty or anything, but he's been a 1000 yard back behind an OL worse than ours 2 out of the last 3 years and he missed half a year.  That's way better than journeymen like Carlos Hyde who has 1 1,000 yard season in 6 years.  He's definitely a cut above the guys who are currently available.

(08-31-2020, 07:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I am just using Pro Football Reference's advanced stats to determine broken tackles. Hence why the numbers are only for the last two years (when they started tracking it).

Counting straight broken tackles and saying he's 17th is pointless. Same reason why straight YAC isn't great either. Getting a ton of opportunities doesn't mean you're doing a good job with those opportunities. It's the same reason why as long as they both have a decent amount of carries, YPC is a far better indicator of quality than total rushing yards.

Jerome Bettis 1999: 299 rushes/1,091 yards (3.6 YPC)
Nick Chubb 2018: 192 rushes/996 yards (5.2 YPC)

The rates almost always give a better picture than the total counting stats (so long as you're keeping to a minimum to filter out the real small sample sizes).

- - - -

The YAC/Carry is a good stat, though. It does means while he doesn't break many tackles, at least he makes it hurt when he does.

I firmly disagree that his OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years. I refuse to believe that anyone's OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years.

If you put any stock in PFF grades, this is from 2019....

Bengals OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
Hopkins (62.4)
Hart (57.6)
Miller (58.6)
Jordan (43.7)
Jerry (55.6)
Price (41.9)

Jaguars OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
J Taylor (63.7)
Norwell (65.5)
Linder (75.3)
Robinson (54.8)
Cann (55.3)
Richardson (43.0)

Neither are particularly good, but the Jags are still much better. At least they had 3 starting quality OL including one good one. The Bengals had 1. The Bengals best OL last year was still worse than three of the Jag's OL. That's pretty bad.

I'm all on board that Fournette didn't have a ton of surrounding talent in the skill department. Never disputed that, but to say he's had a worse OL than the Bengals for the last 3 years is something that simply can't be said.

(08-31-2020, 08:02 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thanks for all the work man, you have been working your ass off getting all this stuff lol

I agree, we have had a worse OL than the Jags the last few years no question. Hope that changes this season.

(08-31-2020, 09:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Getting back in posting shape for the season. I follow the Eddie Lacy offseason workout routine for my offseason posting. So I get real lazy in the "Armon Binns is Calvin Johnson/Margus Hunt did MMA so he's going to get double digit sacks" parts of the year. Lol



Yeah, I don't think they'll be a good unit, but I do hope they'll at least be a mediocre OL. That'd be a nice upgrade and it might give Burrow a chance to survive the season. Can't let Burrow get sacked 48 times like Bengals QBs did last year. Hopefully the offense is built ready for some quick throws if things don't look great. If Burrow survives and his development isn't set back by shellshock or Taylor's bad offense then I will consider it a win.

(08-31-2020, 07:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I am just using Pro Football Reference's advanced stats to determine broken tackles. Hence why the numbers are only for the last two years (when they started tracking it).

Counting straight broken tackles and saying he's 17th is pointless. Same reason why straight YAC isn't great either. Getting a ton of opportunities doesn't mean you're doing a good job with those opportunities. It's the same reason why as long as they both have a decent amount of carries, YPC is a far better indicator of quality than total rushing yards.

Jerome Bettis 1999: 299 rushes/1,091 yards (3.6 YPC)
Nick Chubb 2018: 192 rushes/996 yards (5.2 YPC)

The rates almost always give a better picture than the total counting stats (so long as you're keeping to a minimum to filter out the real small sample sizes).

- - - -

The YAC/Carry is a good stat, though. It does means while he doesn't break many tackles, at least he makes it hurt when he does.

I firmly disagree that his OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years. I refuse to believe that anyone's OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years.

If you put any stock in PFF grades, this is from 2019....

Bengals OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
Hopkins (62.4)
Hart (57.6)
Miller (58.6)
Jordan (43.7)
Jerry (55.6)
Price (41.9)

Jaguars OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
J Taylor (63.7)
Norwell (65.5)
Linder (75.3)
Robinson (54.8)
Cann (55.3)
Richardson (43.0)

Neither are particularly good, but the Jags are still much better. At least they had 3 starting quality OL including one good one. The Bengals had 1. The Bengals best OL last year was still worse than three of the Jag's OL. That's pretty bad.

I'm all on board that Fournette didn't have a ton of surrounding talent in the skill department. Never disputed that, but to say he's had a worse OL than the Bengals for the last 3 years is something that simply can't be said.