(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

(10-21-2020, 01:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Most of Joes stats look pretty pedestrian, but there are plenty of "excuses" for them.

However the one stat that really impresses me is his interception percentage.  Rookie QBs throw more interceptions.  Quarterbacks on losing teams that are behind and have to take more chances and force throws to make plays throw more interceptions.  But Burrow's interception percentage of 1.63 is ninth best in the league.

Joe still has a lot to improve on.  Not all of his problems are based on the players and coaches around him.  But interceptions are game changing plays and considering he is a rookie on a one-win team his interception percentage is very impressive.

(10-21-2020, 01:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Most of Joes stats look pretty pedestrian, but there are plenty of "excuses" for them.

However the one stat that really impresses me is his interception percentage.  Rookie QBs throw more interceptions.  Quarterbacks on losing teams that are behind and have to take more chances and force throws to make plays throw more interceptions.  But Burrow's interception percentage of 1.63 is ninth best in the league.

Joe still has a lot to improve on.  Not all of his problems are based on the players and coaches around him.  But interceptions are game changing plays and considering he is a rookie on a one-win team his interception percentage is very impressive.

(10-21-2020, 02:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Honestly the crazy thing is how bloated QB numbers have gotten the last 3 years. The average QB in the 2020 NFL is currently on pace for a season that looks like this...

370/465 completions/attempts (65.5% completion)
3,904 yards (7.3 YPA)
27 TDs/13 INTs
94.1 QB Rating

That's an AVERAGE QB in 2020. Yet those numbers in any year prior to 2018 is probably a Pro Bowl QB. You'd have looked at that and said "we have a franchise QB!"

(10-21-2020, 03:01 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: that'll probably change as the whether gets worse and Defenses get more acclimated. I think defenses had the biggest disadvantage with the lack of offseason and preseason due to the lack of physicality they can have in practices now. 

(10-21-2020, 11:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: This thread is not created to support or not support the #1 pick being on Joe Burrow. It is the facts after his first 6 games from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc

Keep in mind Burrow has played all 6 weeks while other starting QB's have had a bye which could effect rankings now, but eventually will work itself out.

Yards - 1617 (8th)
YPG - 269.5 (13th)
Completion % - 65% (23rd)
TD's - 6 (Tied for 25th with 5 others)
Interceptions - 4 (Tied 22nd with 10 others)
interception percentage - 1.63 is 9 (Ty Fred)
QBR - 85.0 (25th)

(10-21-2020, 03:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It honestly probably won't. It's pretty on pace with the sharp rises lately.

In 2019 the average completion rate was 63.5%, in 2018 it was 64.9%. 
In 2019 the average TD/INT was 26/13, and in 2018 it was 27/13.

The last 3 years have been absurd QB numbers. It's what happens when you keep changing the rules to not allow defenders to play defense.

Siri, show me a tight-window throw pic.twitter.com/B4kXuXWajs

— Matt Minich (@CoachMinich) October 20, 2020

(10-21-2020, 04:29 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Am I missing something? Isn't that a down trend from 2018 to 2019?

While I agree changing the rules like that has been bogus I think the lack of Preseason definitely put the D's at disadvantages
this year and the QB numbers should level out more as the weather changes like it normally does as Rubekahn said.

(10-21-2020, 11:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: This thread is not created to support or not support the #1 pick being on Joe Burrow. It is the facts after his first 6 games from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc

Keep in mind Burrow has played all 6 weeks while other starting QB's have had a bye which could effect rankings now, but eventually will work itself out.

Yards - 1617 (8th)
YPG - 269.5 (13th)
Completion % - 65% (23rd)
TD's - 6 (Tied for 25th with 5 others)
Interceptions - 4 (Tied 22nd with 10 others)
interception percentage - 1.63 is 9 (Ty Fred)
QBR - 85.0 (25th)

I will update weekly. To me, it is not so much where he is today, it is how he progresses. I put more emphasis on progression because he is a rookie, if he were a vet their progression may have already been baked in due to experience.

I am banking on him getting better as time goes on and have been impressed with his leadership and toughness. Looking at just stats, it appears he needs to get better inside the redzone, he has a lot of yards, but not converting them to TD's.

I used these stats, if you think others should be added, let me know.

(10-21-2020, 05:52 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: But even that small down from 2018-2019 is still way up from the past.

If you ignore 2018, 2019 had the highest average Completion % in NFL history, tied for the highest TDs per game in NFL history, tied for the lowest INTs per game in NFL history, and the highest QB Rating in history.

2014 was the first time the average Completion % had EVER gone above 61.2%.... and now we've been at 64.9% (2nd highest ever), 63.5% (3rd highest ever), and 65.5% (highest ever) over the last 3 years.

2012 was the first time the average INTs were below 1 per game.

2013 was the first time the average TDs were above 1.5 per game.

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - -
An average QB when Joe Burrow was drafted (2020, +9 years), over 16 games*... completed 65.5% of their passes, threw for 3,904 yards (7.3 YPA), 27 TDs/13 INTs, 94.1 QB Rating.
(*pace)

An average QB when Andy Dalton was drafted (2011, +8 years), over 16 games... completed 60.1 % of their passes, threw for 3,675 yards (7.2 YPA), 24 TDs/16 INTs, 84.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Carson Palmer was drafted (2003, +19 years), over 16 games... completed 58.8% of their passes, threw for 3,206 yards (6.6 YPA), 21 TDs/18 INTs, 78.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Boomer Esiason was drafted (1984, +13 years), over 16 games... completed 56.4% of their passes, threw for 3,294 yards (7.1 YPA), 22 TDs/21 INTs, 76.1 QB Rating.

An average QB when Ken Anderson was drafted (1971), over 16 games (adj 14 to 16)... completed 50.9% of their passes, threw for 2,491 yards (6.7 YPA), 18 TDs/24 INTs, 62.2 QB Rating.

- - - - -
The big 2011 rule changes made giant changes that favored QBs and more recently the stricter protections for QBs and harsher punishments for defenders has made it so much worse.