Joe Burrow weekly Rankings

[Luvnit2]

This thread is not created to support or not support the #1 pick being on Joe Burrow. It is the facts after his first 6 games from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc

Keep in mind Burrow has played all 6 weeks while other starting QB's have had a bye which could effect rankings now, but eventually will work itself out.

Yards - 1617 (8th)
YPG - 269.5 (13th)
Completion % - 65% (23rd)
TD's - 6 (Tied for 25th with 5 others)
Interceptions - 4 (Tied 22nd with 10 others)
interception percentage - 1.63 is 9 (Ty Fred)
QBR - 85.0 (25th)

I will update weekly. To me, it is not so much where he is today, it is how he progresses. I put more emphasis on progression because he is a rookie, if he were a vet their progression may have already been baked in due to experience.

I am banking on him getting better as time goes on and have been impressed with his leadership and toughness. Looking at just stats, it appears he needs to get better inside the redzone, he has a lot of yards, but not converting them to TD's.

I used these stats, if you think others should be added, let me know.

[GreenCornBengal]

The Ravens game and some dropped TDs or penalties on TDs have hurt his numbers a bit. Overall, what I’d expect for a rookie. The good thing is he has kept the INTs down for the most part.

[Wes Mantooth]

I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

[Luvnit2]

(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

I agree 100%, I also think under the circumstances he is off to a good start.

I still think as he gets smarter (checks in and out of plays based on how defense lines up), he will get better results.

As far as previous poster, every QB deals with drops and every QB benefits by great catches too. The Doyle TD grab was off the charts and cost us a win possibly. Players need to make great plays too, but they like the QB who misses throws or throws into coverage making mistakes, they are all human.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

And honestly, that’s probably being generous. I know AJ finally had a good game (6 weeks in), but Fitzgerald just last year had 75 rec 800 yds and 4 TD’s. Is AJ on pace to come anywhere close to that?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-21-2020, 12:14 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really couldn't be more impressed with him.

Consider the following, when looking at his statistics:

-He's a rookie (with no offseason activites, nor a preseason).
-He plays behind one of the worst OL's in the league.
-His running back his averaging 3.6 yards a carry. (2nd to last out of top 50/See previous point about OL)
-We lack a true #1 receiver/downfield threat (AJ = Ancient Larry Fitz at this point in his career)
-He has a bottom of the barrel TE, who we do not use in the offense.
-Zach Taylor is his OC (This offense has no identity, playcalling is all over the place, maybe the worst coach I've ever seen in the Red Zone)

No QB is set up for any real success with this OL and this loser of a head coach/OC.

Same here, all things considered Burrow has been fantastic IMO. Think his ranking will go up significantly after this next Stains game.

[fredtoast]

Most of Joes stats look pretty pedestrian, but there are plenty of "excuses" for them.

However the one stat that really impresses me is his interception percentage.  Rookie QBs throw more interceptions.  Quarterbacks on losing teams that are behind and have to take more chances and force throws to make plays throw more interceptions.  But Burrow's interception percentage of 1.63 is ninth best in the league.

Joe still has a lot to improve on.  Not all of his problems are based on the players and coaches around him.  But interceptions are game changing plays and considering he is a rookie on a one-win team his interception percentage is very impressive.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-21-2020, 01:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Most of Joes stats look pretty pedestrian, but there are plenty of "excuses" for them.

However the one stat that really impresses me is his interception percentage.  Rookie QBs throw more interceptions.  Quarterbacks on losing teams that are behind and have to take more chances and force throws to make plays throw more interceptions.  But Burrow's interception percentage of 1.63 is ninth best in the league.

Joe still has a lot to improve on.  Not all of his problems are based on the players and coaches around him.  But interceptions are game changing plays and considering he is a rookie on a one-win team his interception percentage is very impressive.

Yes, with how many attempts Burrow has had (2nd most ever behind Luck as a rookie) he has been very careful with the ball.

[Luvnit2]

(10-21-2020, 01:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Most of Joes stats look pretty pedestrian, but there are plenty of "excuses" for them.

However the one stat that really impresses me is his interception percentage.  Rookie QBs throw more interceptions.  Quarterbacks on losing teams that are behind and have to take more chances and force throws to make plays throw more interceptions.  But Burrow's interception percentage of 1.63 is ninth best in the league.

Joe still has a lot to improve on.  Not all of his problems are based on the players and coaches around him.  But interceptions are game changing plays and considering he is a rookie on a one-win team his interception percentage is very impressive.

Thanks Fred, I was hoping ESPN had that stat, but was not there. Where do I find it and I will update and add that stat. You are correct, the interception rate tells us as much or more than pure interceptions as some QB's throw a lot more passes.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Honestly the crazy thing is how bloated QB numbers have gotten the last 3 years. The average QB in the 2020 NFL is currently on pace for a season that looks like this...

370/465 completions/attempts (65.5% completion)
3,904 yards (7.3 YPA)
27 TDs/13 INTs
94.1 QB Rating

That's an AVERAGE QB in 2020. Yet those numbers in any year prior to 2018 is almost certainly a Pro Bowl QB. You'd have looked at that and said "we have a franchise QB!"

[Rubekahn29]

(10-21-2020, 02:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Honestly the crazy thing is how bloated QB numbers have gotten the last 3 years. The average QB in the 2020 NFL is currently on pace for a season that looks like this...

370/465 completions/attempts (65.5% completion)
3,904 yards (7.3 YPA)
27 TDs/13 INTs
94.1 QB Rating

That's an AVERAGE QB in 2020. Yet those numbers in any year prior to 2018 is probably a Pro Bowl QB. You'd have looked at that and said "we have a franchise QB!"

that'll probably change as the whether gets worse and Defenses get more acclimated. I think defenses had the biggest disadvantage with the lack of offseason and preseason due to the lack of physicality they can have in practices now. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-21-2020, 03:01 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: that'll probably change as the whether gets worse and Defenses get more acclimated. I think defenses had the biggest disadvantage with the lack of offseason and preseason due to the lack of physicality they can have in practices now. 

It honestly probably won't. It's pretty on pace with the sharp rises lately.

In 2019 the average completion rate was 63.5%, in 2018 it was 64.9%. 
In 2019 the average TD/INT was 26/13, and in 2018 it was 27/13.

The last 3 years have been absurd QB numbers. It's what happens when you keep changing the rules to not allow defenders to play defense.

[Bengalholic]

(10-21-2020, 11:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: This thread is not created to support or not support the #1 pick being on Joe Burrow. It is the facts after his first 6 games from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc

Keep in mind Burrow has played all 6 weeks while other starting QB's have had a bye which could effect rankings now, but eventually will work itself out.

Yards - 1617 (8th)
YPG - 269.5 (13th)
Completion % - 65% (23rd)
TD's - 6 (Tied for 25th with 5 others)
Interceptions - 4 (Tied 22nd with 10 others)
interception percentage - 1.63 is 9 (Ty Fred)
QBR - 85.0 (25th)

Here's a few more:

Completions - 162 (2nd)
Attempts - 246 (1st)
Passing 1st downs - 91 (3rd)
Yards per attempt - 6.6 (25th)
Yards per comp - 10.1 (29th)
Sacked - 24 (2nd)

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-21-2020, 03:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It honestly probably won't. It's pretty on pace with the sharp rises lately.

In 2019 the average completion rate was 63.5%, in 2018 it was 64.9%. 
In 2019 the average TD/INT was 26/13, and in 2018 it was 27/13.

The last 3 years have been absurd QB numbers. It's what happens when you keep changing the rules to not allow defenders to play defense.

Am I missing something? Isn't that a down trend from 2018 to 2019?

While I agree changing the rules like that has been bogus I think the lack of Preseason definitely put the D's at disadvantages
this year and the QB numbers should level out more as the weather changes like it normally does as Rubekahn said.

[*Synric*]

Siri, show me a tight-window throw pic.twitter.com/B4kXuXWajs

— Matt Minich (@CoachMinich) October 20, 2020

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-21-2020, 04:29 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Am I missing something? Isn't that a down trend from 2018 to 2019?

While I agree changing the rules like that has been bogus I think the lack of Preseason definitely put the D's at disadvantages
this year and the QB numbers should level out more as the weather changes like it normally does as Rubekahn said.

But even that small down from 2018-2019 is still way up from the past.

If you ignore 2018, 2019 had the highest average Completion % in NFL history, tied for the highest TDs per game in NFL history, tied for the lowest INTs per game in NFL history, and the highest QB Rating in history.

2014 was the first time the average Completion % had EVER gone above 61.2%.... and now we've been at 64.9% (2nd highest ever), 63.5% (3rd highest ever), and 65.5% (highest ever) over the last 3 years.

2012 was the first time the average INTs were below 1 per game.

2013 was the first time the average TDs were above 1.5 per game.

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - -
An average QB when Joe Burrow was drafted (2020, +9 years), over 16 games*... completed 65.5% of their passes, threw for 3,904 yards (7.3 YPA), 27 TDs/13 INTs, 94.1 QB Rating.
(*pace)

An average QB when Andy Dalton was drafted (2011, +8 years), over 16 games... completed 60.1 % of their passes, threw for 3,675 yards (7.2 YPA), 24 TDs/16 INTs, 84.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Carson Palmer was drafted (2003, +19 years), over 16 games... completed 58.8% of their passes, threw for 3,206 yards (6.6 YPA), 21 TDs/18 INTs, 78.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Boomer Esiason was drafted (1984, +13 years), over 16 games... completed 56.4% of their passes, threw for 3,294 yards (7.1 YPA), 22 TDs/21 INTs, 76.1 QB Rating.

An average QB when Ken Anderson was drafted (1971), over 16 games (adj 14 to 16)... completed 50.9% of their passes, threw for 2,491 yards (6.7 YPA), 18 TDs/24 INTs, 62.2 QB Rating.

- - - - -
The big 2011 rule changes made giant changes that favored QBs and more recently the stricter protections for QBs and harsher punishments for defenders has made it so much worse.

[Tony]

(10-21-2020, 11:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: This thread is not created to support or not support the #1 pick being on Joe Burrow. It is the facts after his first 6 games from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/QBRating/dir/desc

Keep in mind Burrow has played all 6 weeks while other starting QB's have had a bye which could effect rankings now, but eventually will work itself out.

Yards - 1617 (8th)
YPG - 269.5 (13th)
Completion % - 65% (23rd)
TD's - 6 (Tied for 25th with 5 others)
Interceptions - 4 (Tied 22nd with 10 others)
interception percentage - 1.63 is 9 (Ty Fred)
QBR - 85.0 (25th)

I will update weekly. To me, it is not so much where he is today, it is how he progresses. I put more emphasis on progression because he is a rookie, if he were a vet their progression may have already been baked in due to experience.

I am banking on him getting better as time goes on and have been impressed with his leadership and toughness. Looking at just stats, it appears he needs to get better inside the redzone, he has a lot of yards, but not converting them to TD's.

I used these stats, if you think others should be added, let me know.

I'd say it's about what was expected... Maybe even exceeding expectations a little bit... I can't wait to see Tua Vs Burrow this year...

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-21-2020, 05:52 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: But even that small down from 2018-2019 is still way up from the past.

If you ignore 2018, 2019 had the highest average Completion % in NFL history, tied for the highest TDs per game in NFL history, tied for the lowest INTs per game in NFL history, and the highest QB Rating in history.

2014 was the first time the average Completion % had EVER gone above 61.2%.... and now we've been at 64.9% (2nd highest ever), 63.5% (3rd highest ever), and 65.5% (highest ever) over the last 3 years.

2012 was the first time the average INTs were below 1 per game.

2013 was the first time the average TDs were above 1.5 per game.

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - -
An average QB when Joe Burrow was drafted (2020, +9 years), over 16 games*... completed 65.5% of their passes, threw for 3,904 yards (7.3 YPA), 27 TDs/13 INTs, 94.1 QB Rating.
(*pace)

An average QB when Andy Dalton was drafted (2011, +8 years), over 16 games... completed 60.1 % of their passes, threw for 3,675 yards (7.2 YPA), 24 TDs/16 INTs, 84.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Carson Palmer was drafted (2003, +19 years), over 16 games... completed 58.8% of their passes, threw for 3,206 yards (6.6 YPA), 21 TDs/18 INTs, 78.3 QB Rating.

An average QB when Boomer Esiason was drafted (1984, +13 years), over 16 games... completed 56.4% of their passes, threw for 3,294 yards (7.1 YPA), 22 TDs/21 INTs, 76.1 QB Rating.

An average QB when Ken Anderson was drafted (1971), over 16 games (adj 14 to 16)... completed 50.9% of their passes, threw for 2,491 yards (6.7 YPA), 18 TDs/24 INTs, 62.2 QB Rating.

- - - - -
The big 2011 rule changes made giant changes that favored QBs and more recently the stricter protections for QBs and harsher punishments for defenders has made it so much worse.

Thanks for the research TLL, the league sure has went the way of the QB no question.

Miss the days of hard hitting football. One thing about Burrow is he has been hit very hard this season and not many roughing the
passer penalties have went for him. Tough sumbitch.

[jj22]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/week-7-nfl-qb-power-rankings-patrick-mahomes-unseats-russell-wilson-ryan-tannehill-rises-jared-goff-falls/

[*psychdoctor*]

I think Burrow was rated 1st or close to 1st in completes percentage for passes under 19 yards.

Here are some other interesting stats:

Burrow has nearly 72% completion rate when the Bengals are behind by 9-16 points. This completion rates drops to nearly 61% when the team is ahead by 9-16 points.

Burrow has 70% completion rate on attempts between 11-20 with a QBR of nearly 100%. On all other attempts i.e., 21-30, 1-10 etc, his completion rate drops to approximately 63% with QBR of 84% or lower.