Report: Burrow pushing for Bengals to draft Chase

[Shake n Blake]

(04-10-2021, 03:35 PM)Whatever Wrote: But will we have enough cap space to sign Sewell according to Hobson?

It's funny, if you watch the video, Ace calls him out a bit on the perception that he's a company shill.

He squirmed trying to explain himself for 2 minutes straight. He knows what he is.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-10-2021, 04:19 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But if Mora said he’d take Chase (for the Bengals) even after singing Sewell’s praises that much what does that tell you?

That his opinion is all over the place, and that he can't be trusted.

[Murdock2420]

(04-10-2021, 04:19 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Literally nobody is questioning how good Sewell is. But if Mora said he’d take Chase (for the Bengals) even after singing Sewell’s praises that much what does that tell you?

That he assumed Sewell is gone at 2 to the Jets?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-10-2021, 04:27 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: That he assumed Sewell is gone at 2 to the Jets?

Watch the video.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-10-2021, 04:25 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: That his opinion is all over the place, and that he can't be trusted.

All over the place I understand. I’ve had each one of Sewell, Pitts, and Chase as my #1 preference at one point or another. Lol

[*bfine32*]

(04-10-2021, 04:19 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Literally nobody is questioning how good Sewell is. But if Mora said he’d take Chase (for the Bengals) even after singing Sewell’s praises that much what does that tell you?

That he doesn't know the Bengals and is drafting for a need that is not there. He said we currently have no outside threat at WR. 

[coachmcneil71]

(04-10-2021, 05:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: That he doesn't know the Bengals and is drafting for a need that is not there. He said we currently have no outside threat at WR. 

Good luck trying to educate the thick head masses. Does JB throw the deep ball well? Answer is, no! Does JB have time to survey the field and attempt a deep throw? Answer is , no to barely.

Ts, we could have Randy Moss in his prime running the 9 and it wouldn't help the offense. The CB across from the "field stretcher" for Cincy already knows he's in for an easy day. He may see 2-3 passes thrown in his direction all day. One of which is more than likely going to be an easy int.

Now, JB can probably throw a better deep ball, but he needs a little time to see the field. Ts, convincing the " if we don't draft Chase the world is over crowd", is a damn near impossible goal here.

[PDub80]

(04-10-2021, 05:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: That he doesn't know the Bengals and is drafting for a need that is not there. He said we currently have no outside threat at WR. 

The Bengals have literally no one to take the top off of a defense and haven't fir years. I see WR as a huge need for the Bengals. Right now, the roster sits at: Higgins, Boyd, Tate, Thomas, Morgan

That is NOT good. Who do you have as the Bengals outside WR threat? Higgins got 2.5 yards separation per catch last year and doesn't have the extra gear to run away from guys. Who is the downfield threat for the Bengals?

[PDub80]

(04-10-2021, 06:02 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Good luck trying to educate the thick head masses. Does JB throw the deep ball well? Answer is, no! Does JB have time to survey the field and attempt a deep throw? Answer is , no to barely.

Ts, we could have Randy Moss in his prime running the 9 and it wouldn't help the offense. The CB across from the "field stretcher" for Cincy already knows he's in for an easy day. He may see 2-3 passes thrown in his direction all day. One of which is more than likely going to be an easy int.

Now, JB can probably throw a better deep ball, but he needs a little time to see the field. Ts, convincing the " if we don't draft Chase the world is over crowd", is a damn near impossible goal here.

It's a 3 headed problem that the Bengals cannot solve with 1 draft pick. Teams were cheating up so close to the line it compacts the field and congests everything the Bengals are trying to do. Not having a guy who's a threat to make youbpay deel kf you're bringing safeties up literally effects EVERYTHING the Bengals are trying to do on offense.

If they had signed Golliday then, sure, O line at 5 is easy.
If they had signed Zeitler AND Reiff then, sure, WR at 5 is easy.

^ They need... NEED another starting O linemen or 2. They NEED a big play, take the top off WR... or 2.

And Joe Burrow NEEDS to get better with the deep ball.

It will be interesting to see how the Bengals solve the problem. They cannot solve it in 1 round of the draft. I will be thrilled as long as they get an ELITE guy. That is all I want and then they can go from there.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-10-2021, 06:19 PM)PDub80 Wrote: The Bengals have literally no one to take the top off of a defense and haven't fir years. I see WR as a huge need for the Bengals. Right now, the roster sits at: Higgins, Boyd, Tate, Thomas, Morgan

That is NOT good. Who do you have as the Bengals outside WR threat? Higgins got 2.5 yards separation per catch last year and doesn't have the extra gear to run away from guys. Who is the downfield threat for the Bengals?

It was 2.6 yards of separation, which was 0.1 more than Justin Jefferson. Do you think Jefferson is a possession receiver?

Btw, this guy should be available in round 2, runs a 4.38 and is 2" taller than Chase:

[Whatever]

(04-10-2021, 03:30 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't see how that changes anything. In fact it makes it worse, as these types of impactful snaps (negative and positive) pile up over the course of hundreds of snaps.

To the rest, the time to throw is really what you want to focus on, because the other two stats can be majorly influenced by the offense making short throws to offset pressure. Which is something that will ALSO have a major impact on how much separation our receivers get on average.

26th in time to throw sounds about right. Our line was awful. "It wasn't the worst" isn't what you really want to hang your hat on, is it? Throw Sewell at RT, bump Reiff inside, draft a speed guy in round 2 or 3, and we should see MAJOR improvement.

You are right that time to throw doesn't necessarily = separation, but you want to know what it does mean? Burrow having more time to scan his receivers to see who got the most separation. If he's having to target the first guy he sees because he has no time, that guy is more likely to be covered...which will drag down that separation stat. If he can scan his targets more often, the stat improves. Simple.

With a larger sample size, the variations don't have to be as extreme as the small sample size you used to arrive at the same average.  Your percentages of negative plays are also off in your example.  Burrow was only pressured on 24.1% of his dropbacks and sacked on 7.3%.

No, time to throw isn't what you want to talk about.  Tom Brady was 3rd in the league in Intended Air Yards, but tied for the 9th lowest Time to Throw.  Why?  Because he gets the ball out quick and he has the speed and talent at WR to get downfield quickly so they can throw it quickly and still push the ball down the field.  TB had 4 WR's that generated more separation than any Bengals WR despite having less time on average to work their routes.  Roethlisberger had the lowest Time to Throw in the league last year, but Dionte Johnson and JuJu still generated more separation than both Boyd and Higgins.   

Can Sewell play RT?  Can Reiff move inside without dropping off?  We've had multiple quotes from former NFL OL talking about how it isn't so simple to just have guys change sides and positions.  I don't know how anyone can project a massive improvement when we're literally setting ourselves up for diminishing returns with this plan.  We could very well be better off as a unit by leaving Reiff at RT and drafting a G in 2 than drafting Sewell and forcing 2 guys to move.  

Hypothetically, this could be correct IF our WR's had the speed and burst to maintain separation after they create it.  Say, you have 2 guys running speed outs on opposite sides of the field.  Burrow's primary read is covered, so he goes to his second read on the other hash who is already out of his break and the CB is already starting to close the window.  With WR's that lack burst and speed, there is a much bigger honus on the QB to get the ball out quickly when the receiver gets that initial separation before the window slams shut.  

[Whatever]

(04-10-2021, 06:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It was 2.6 yards of separation, which was 0.1 more than Justin Jefferson. Do you think Jefferson is a possession receiver?

Btw, this guy should be available in round 2, runs a 4.38 and is 2" taller than Chase:

Marshall will likely go in the 1st with that Pro Day performance.

Currently, there are 13 OL in the Top 50 of the Consensus Big Board(created through averaging numerous big boards) vs 8 WR's.  There are 20 OL in the Top 100 vs 14 WR's.  You have a much better chance of getting 2 immediate starters going WR in 1, OL in 2 vs OL in 1, WR in 2.  The OL class is so stacked that most of the guys available in the 2nd would be 1st rounders in a normal class, similar to last year's WR class.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-10-2021, 06:47 PM)Whatever Wrote:
1. With a larger sample size, the variations don't have to be as extreme as the small sample size you used to arrive at the same average.  Your percentages of negative plays are also off in your example.  Burrow was only pressured on 24.1% of his dropbacks and sacked on 7.3%.

2. No, time to throw isn't what you want to talk about.  Tom Brady was 3rd in the league in Intended Air Yards, but tied for the 9th lowest Time to Throw.  Why?  Because he gets the ball out quick and he has the speed and talent at WR to get downfield quickly so they can throw it quickly and still push the ball down the field.  TB had 4 WR's that generated more separation than any Bengals WR despite having less time on average to work their routes.  Roethlisberger had the lowest Time to Throw in the league last year, but Dionte Johnson and JuJu still generated more separation than both Boyd and Higgins.   

3. Can Sewell play RT?  Can Reiff move inside without dropping off?  We've had multiple quotes from former NFL OL talking about how it isn't so simple to just have guys change sides and positions.  I don't know how anyone can project a massive improvement when we're literally setting ourselves up for diminishing returns with this plan.  We could very well be better off as a unit by leaving Reiff at RT and drafting a G in 2 than drafting Sewell and forcing 2 guys to move.  

4. Hypothetically, this could be correct IF our WR's had the speed and burst to maintain separation after they create it.  Say, you have 2 guys running speed outs on opposite sides of the field.  Burrow's primary read is covered, so he goes to his second read on the other hash who is already out of his break and the CB is already starting to close the window.  With WR's that lack burst and speed, there is a much bigger honus on the QB to get the ball out quickly when the receiver gets that initial separation before the window slams shut.  

1. What I said holds true. I guarantee that if you looked at each individual snap, it isn't going to be super consistent. There's going to be plenty of deviations. Plenty more blown up plays with the bad o-lines. Plenty more big plays for the team with good blocking. Are you really going to argue against this? It's common sense, brother.

2. Tom Brady is an exception, as he has always run a timing based offense predicated on short throws. He doesn't represent the average NFL offense. Also, guys can be schemed open. You bring up Ben Roethlisburger. Well how many times have we seen his guys WIDE open through the years? Not via speed, but some guy just somehow got lost in coverage.

Juju isn't a speed guy. He ran a 4.5 and a 4.54 leading up to the draft. Johnson ran a 4.53. So basically you're arguing against yourself. The Steelers are getting separation with a pair of 4.5 guys and little time to throw. That just proves what I said about scheme is on point.

3. Adding talent is never a bad thing, and Reiff himself has played multiple positions and has said he'd be fine with moving. If he felt he'd struggle, why would he offer? You think he wants to tank his next contract after 1 year at an awkward position? You've got to be the first person I've seen argue that adding Sewell could somehow make us worse. Amazing.

4. It's just true regardless. I don't know what to tell ya. Having the ability to scan for open receivers is ALWAYS going to lead to the QB hitting open receivers more frequently. You're over-thinking a very simple truth. We don't have turtles playing WR. They are going to be open sometimes. If Burrow doesn't have time, he'll find that open guy less often.

(04-10-2021, 06:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Marshall will likely go in the 1st with that Pro Day performance.

Currently, there are 13 OL in the Top 50 of the Consensus Big Board(created through averaging numerous big boards) vs 8 WR's.  There are 20 OL in the Top 100 vs 14 WR's.  You have a much better chance of getting 2 immediate starters going WR in 1, OL in 2 vs OL in 1, WR in 2.  The OL class is so stacked that most of the guys available in the 2nd would be 1st rounders in a normal class, similar to last year's WR class.

We really don't want to lock ourselves into only looking at one position in the 2nd though...and when you look at WR depth overall in this draft, most sites have it as being deeper than o-line.

Many sites still have Marshall going in the 2nd.

[PDub80]

(04-10-2021, 06:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It was 2.6 yards of separation, which was 0.1 more than Justin Jefferson. Do you think Jefferson is a possession receiver?

Btw, this guy should be available in round 2, runs a 4.38 and is 2" taller than Chase:

With his pro day, Marshall all but guaranteed he will be a first rounder. I wouldn't be shocked of he was WR 2 or 3 off the board after Chase.

I guess what I keep getting stuck on is that I believe that Chase is so much better than what will be available at WR in round 2 compared to the difference between Sewell and the linemen in round 2.

Jamaar Chase absolutely destroyed 4 CBs who were very high to good NFL draft picks. Like, obliterated them. Sewell did well against Pac 12 guys. I see Chase as a bigger, faster, stronger version of Steve Smith (Panthers) and Sewell more of a Quenton Nelson. Sewell is nowhere in the same stratosphere of an Orlando Pace or Andrew Whitworth, IMO just due to size alone. Sewell was interesting when he was listed at 6'6", but that turned out to be a myth when he came in at 6'4" (Neslon is 6'5") with shorter arms.

With Sewell, think the Bengals would be using a top 5 pick on a player best suited at Guard in an absolutely STACKED O line class and that is an insane lack of value, IMO, while no one else is like Chase in this draft.

BTW, I will in no way be upset with a lineman. Not at all. The BEngals need talent all over. So, I will be excited. Hell, take a lineman in the 1st & the RB, Harris from Alabama in the 2nd and pound the rock between him & Mixon. I will LOVE that. Grab a WR or 2 later. Just add great players. That's all they need to do. I don't think the Bengals are THAT far off from being really dangerous.

PS: Tate is preeeeety close to a turtle.

And the WR class DOES have a ton of talent, but as I looked into what's available, that talent is either sub 6' tall or sub 185lbs. Most of them are little, quick slot guys or returners. Bateman and the kid from Colorado are bigger guys. There's another who I am forgetting. The Bengals NEED to add 2 more WRs in the draft and sign a few before camp. They only have 5 on the roster.

[fredtoast]

(04-10-2021, 06:47 PM)Whatever Wrote: Hypothetically, this could be correct IF our WR's had the speed and burst to maintain separation after they create it.  Say, you have 2 guys running speed outs on opposite sides of the field.  Burrow's primary read is covered, so he goes to his second read on the other hash who is already out of his break and the CB is already starting to close the window.  With WR's that lack burst and speed, there is a much bigger honus on the QB to get the ball out quickly when the receiver gets that initial separation before the window slams shut.  

Higgins is faster than Shuster.


Our WRs would have better separation numbers if Burrow didn't float the deep ball.  That gives the DBs time to close on the ball.  That is what "slams the window shut".

[impactplaya]

One thing not brought up in regards to seperation, is route running itself.
I saw so many times that these WRs TEs would run the same predictable routes over and over
DBs arent dumb. They study and read the routes of other WRs/TEs.
ZT has to do a better job of scheming these guys to get open.

[BobJohnson55]

(04-10-2021, 07:30 PM)PDub80 Wrote: With his pro day, Marshall all but guaranteed he will be a first rounder. I wouldn't be shocked of he was WR 2 or 3 off the board after Chase.

I guess what I keep getting stuck on is that I believe that Chase is so much better than what will be available at WR in round 2 compared to the difference between Sewell and the linemen in round 2.

Jamaar Chase absolutely destroyed 4 CBs who were very high to good NFL draft picks. Like, obliterated them. Sewell did well against Pac 12 guys. I see Chase as a bigger, faster, stronger version of Steve Smith (Panthers) and Sewell more of a Quenton Nelson. Sewell is nowhere in the same stratosphere of an Orlando Pace or Andrew Whitworth, IMO just due to size alone. Sewell was interesting when he was listed at 6'6", but that turned out to be a myth when he came in at 6'4" (Neslon is 6'5") with shorter arms.

With Sewell, think the Bengals would be using a top 5 pick on a player best suited at Guard in an absolutely STACKED O line class and that is an insane lack of value, IMO, while no one else is like Chase in this draft.

BTW, I will in no way be upset with a lineman. Not at all. The BEngals need talent all over. So, I will be excited. Hell, take a lineman in the 1st & the RB, Harris from Alabama in the 2nd and pound the rock between him & Mixon. I will LOVE that. Grab a WR or 2 later. Just add great players. That's all they need to do. I don't think the Bengals are THAT far off from being really dangerous.

PS: Tate is preeeeety close to a turtle.

And the WR class DOES have a ton of talent, but as I looked into what's available, that talent is either sub 6' tall or sub 185lbs. Most of them are little, quick slot guys or returners. Bateman and the kid from Colorado are bigger guys. There's another who I am forgetting. The Bengals NEED to add 2 more WRs in the draft and sign a few before camp. They only have 5 on the roster.

Thank God there is some sensible bengals fans on this subject on here. You and the user whatever explain it pretty well. Our receivers last year could not get much seperation and definitely not a deep threat. Even tee higgins in that mix is not fast. I would actually consider him a posession type of receiver right now,he has potential of being more,but idk why these guys are penciling him in as #1 stud. 

Once again I'll be fine if they take sewell but the rest of the draft I'll be sitting with my fingers crossed hoping and praying they pick the right receivers that I actually like. As in if they take chase I'll feel pretty comfortable they'll draft a solid lineman.  

[Murdock2420]

(04-10-2021, 06:24 PM)PDub80 Wrote: It's a 3 headed problem that the Bengals cannot solve with 1 draft pick. Teams were cheating up so close to the line it compacts the field and congests everything the Bengals are trying to do. Not having a guy who's a threat to make youbpay deel kf you're bringing safeties up literally effects EVERYTHING the Bengals are trying to do on offense.

If they had signed Golliday then, sure, O line at 5 is easy.
If they had signed Zeitler AND Reiff then, sure, WR at 5 is easy.

^ They need... NEED another starting O linemen or 2. They NEED a big play, take the top off WR... or 2.

And Joe Burrow NEEDS to get better with the deep ball.

It will be interesting to see how the Bengals solve the problem. They cannot solve it in 1 round of the draft. I will be thrilled as long as they get an ELITE guy. That is all I want and then they can go from there.

This is correct. They need multiple pieces and have one spot to use on an elite guy.

However, I want your opinion on this as well as Nico and other people who are really big into Chase at 5.

Every year the "experts" say the draft is loaded with OL talent on day 2 and day 3. However, at the start of every single NFL season, the talk is how there is a real lack of quality starting NFL offensive linemen. 

Every year (this year included) when free agency begins, there is a huge rush on OL and Edge rushers. I mean, look at this year specifically. The top OL player was Thuney. Maybe you can say Trent Williams but no one thought he was leaving San Fran, it was either re-sign or retire for him. So, let's go with Thuney as next in line. The top WR target, Golliday.

So, day 1 of FA. Thuney, courted by many and signed by a team in cap hell. Didn't matter, when there is an exceptional guy on the OL, you make it work.

Zeitler, an above average OL, signed on day 1, the list goes on of guys that were immediately gobbled up on the line in the start of FA. Tier one and Tier two was empty, before people could even sign officially.

Now compare that to the top WR target.

Golliday had to use the Bengals as leverage to increase his market with the Giants. Think about that, the unquestioned top WR in the class, had to use a team to increase his market. He signed March 21st, well after the legal tampering period and into actual open free agency.

So, around the league, when you have a chance to get elite level OL or Edge rushers, you don't think, you do it. It is clearly viewed that you can find talent at WR much easier around the NFL.

With that logic in mind, why would you pass on elite level OL play to get average OL play in 2?

I get that Chase will be elite at the WR, but again, Golliday is elite and had no market when half the NFL could use him as their #1. We have two solid 1000 yard able receivers on the team. We need a guy that can get deep, and get open and make defenses respect that. He doesn't need to be perfectly polished, he doesn't need to have a complete route tree, he can be a work in progress as long as he can get deep and make the defense respect that.

Again, I understand Chase will be a very good WR. Not saying he won't, I'm simply saying the league has a lack of elite talent on the OL, and it is not lacking for talent at WR.

So, I'm curious with all that knowledge, why are people still clamoring for Chase?

[Murdock2420]

(04-10-2021, 06:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Marshall will likely go in the 1st with that Pro Day performance.

Currently, there are 13 OL in the Top 50 of the Consensus Big Board(created through averaging numerous big boards) vs 8 WR's.  There are 20 OL in the Top 100 vs 14 WR's.  You have a much better chance of getting 2 immediate starters going WR in 1, OL in 2 vs OL in 1, WR in 2.  The OL class is so stacked that most of the guys available in the 2nd would be 1st rounders in a normal class, similar to last year's WR class.

If Marshall goes in 1, that means Bateman or Toney is easily sitting there at 38. 

I get your argument about top 100, but we are talking elite level talents not, this guy might be good. Every year half the top 100 flames out.

Sewell is a lock, going to be a good OL, no one questions that.

Chase is going to be a good WR no one questions that.

There is 2 "elite" OL players in this draft, Sewell and Slater. Then there is Vera Tucker and Darrisaw maybe Cosmi on Tier 2, then tier 3 begins with Leatherwood and Eichenberg and etc...

WR, Chase, Waddle and Smith. After the Championship, everyone here was screaming for Smith. Then it went back to Chase and based on career numbers, Waddle actually might be the best one. But all 3 are high level. The drop to tier two here is Marshall Jr, Bateman, Toney, and Rondale Moore is still viewed as a 1st round talent. Then tier 3 with Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, etc.

Look at those list and think, what position group can you develop in Cincy... OL or WR? Recent history says... round 2 WR are impact players for us. It's really not complicated at all.


Also, before anyone asks how I know Toney or Bateman has to be there at 38.

In the past 10 NFL drafts only once was there more then 5 WRs in the first 38 picks. 1 time, usually it is 3 to 4.

So, assume Chase, Waddle, Smith, Marshall all go in 1... that leaves Bateman, Toney, Moore and Moore.

The gap from Bateman to Chase is much smaller then the gap from Sewell to Leatherwood.

[Nicomo Cosca]

How about the Sewell vs Chase camps meet in the middle and we just go Pitts. :D