How good can Tee Higgins be?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-20-2021, 03:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No they didn't. 

*sigh*

Yes, they absolutely did. I know you admittedly don’t watch all the games, but it was an issue all season. Even when Burrow had time. If you exclude all the plays in this set of clips where Burrow was being pressured (which was a bunch), you still have to see that our WR’s were not getting open on the rest of them.

Watch these and mark down each time the WR is blanketed and how many times the QB is pressured. https://t.co/EbL1CnIw7C

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 11, 2021

[XenoMorph]

(04-20-2021, 03:10 PM)Benton Wrote: It's hard for anyone to get separation when the QB has to throw the ball in two seconds. 

i wonder if part of that is route design

[impactplaya]

Defenses sat on the Bengals intermediate routes. That goes back to scheme and design

[fredtoast]

(04-20-2021, 03:52 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: *sigh*

Yes, they absolutely did. I know you admittedly don’t watch all the games, but it was an issue all season. Even when Burrow had time. If you exclude all the plays in this set of clips where Burrow was being pressured (which was a bunch), you still have to see that our WR’s were not getting open on the rest of them.

Watch these and mark down each time the WR is blanketed and how many times the QB is pressured. https://t.co/EbL1CnIw7C

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 11, 2021

Before I watch some cherry picked clips tell me how many there are. I have a strong feeling they don't include every route Higgins and Boyd ran.

-I saw our receivers get open many times.  

-The "separation" stats from nextgen show that both Boyd and Higgins got separation at the same rate of most of the best WRs on other teams.

-Boyd has been an absolute elite receiver on 3rd/4th down and that is not possible for a receiver who can't get open.

[tms]

(04-20-2021, 03:52 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: *sigh*

Yes, they absolutely did. I know you admittedly don’t watch all the games, but it was an issue all season. Even when Burrow had time. If you exclude all the plays in this set of clips where Burrow was being pressured (which was a bunch), you still have to see that our WR’s were not getting open on the rest of them.

Watch these and mark down each time the WR is blanketed and how many times the QB is pressured. https://t.co/EbL1CnIw7C

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 11, 2021

The exceptions don't prove the rule. Separation was such an issue that we dressed Ross for all of 3 games. 

Not saying that speed and burst alone create separation, but there are plenty of questions that surround a guy like Chase's ability to do what he did in college at the next level. His ability to separate was a function of hands and physicality, almost to his own detriment. In effect, he often bullied his way to separation. There's no telling how that will translate to the pros against crafty veterans who are bigger, stronger and faster.

Either way, if anything, the idea that they didn't create enough separation for Burrow should cause us all to question what we're hearing through the media during this time of year. Take the Delorean back 12 months and see what they were saying then...

Tee Higgins, Bengals WR Corps Will Be Mismatch Nightmare

"All of these weapons combine to give Joe Burrow an incredible number of options upon entering the league. It begs the question, how in the world can an opposing defense field the proper personnel to defend them? Any given team may have one or even two physical corners capable of holding their own. But if the team deploys Green, Tate, and Higgins all at the same time, one of them is bound to get matched up against a smaller corner. Dial-up fades and watch Burrow go to work... Sure, other franchises may have speedsters at corner but how are they going to cover the 4.22 speed of Ross alongside Green, who runs in the 4.4’s himself, without being able to use double coverage on one of them? ...


"From size to speed to everything in between, the Bengals have the potential to field a high powered offense if they can get the offensive line puzzle figured out."



-


It just sounds awfully familiar.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-20-2021, 04:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Before I watch some cherry picked clips tell me how many there are. I have a strong feeling they don't include every route Higgins and Boyd ran.

-I saw our receivers get open many times.  

-The "separation" stats from nextgen show that both Boyd and Higgins got separation at the same rate of most of the best WRs on other teams.

-Boyd has been an absolute elite receiver on 3rd/4th down and that is not possible for a receiver who can't get open.

Both guys are good at making contested catches. It would make things a lot easier on Burrow if we had at least one option that is running wide open at times. And then be able to actually take it to the house. Even when Tee or Boyd do get a step on a DB, they usually get caught from behind pretty easily (the long bomb to Tee against Indy for example). The only time I remember seeing either guy take one for a TD last year was Boyd against the Dolphins, and it was just a terrible angle taken by the MIA player (he let Sample block 2 Fins at once).

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-20-2021, 03:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: True, but even when Burrow had time our guys had trouble. 

Nate. No.

I really wish people (everyone that keeps harping on how terrible they are) would go back and watch before they make declarative statements. 

Are they running by guys vertically? Not at any moderate rate but they do_not_have_trouble getting separation on the majority of routes they run. 

Adding a guy that can stretch the field consistently would be great but they're not completely unable to mount a good passing attack. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-20-2021, 03:52 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: *sigh*

Yes, they absolutely did. I know you admittedly don’t watch all the games, but it was an issue all season. Even when Burrow had time. If you exclude all the plays in this set of clips where Burrow was being pressured (which was a bunch), you still have to see that our WR’s were not getting open on the rest of them.

Watch these and mark down each time the WR is blanketed and how many times the QB is pressured. https://t.co/EbL1CnIw7C

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 11, 2021

I have game pass and i went back and watched TnT, isolated on all 22, on the routes they ran. The majority of the time, they don't have trouble getting separation. Neither one was asked all that often to try and just run by someone but they didn't have trouble getting open on the vast majority of routes they ran last year. 

[*jason*]

(04-20-2021, 05:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I have game pass and i went back and watched TnT, isolated on all 22, on the routes they ran. The majority of the time, they don't have trouble getting separation. Neither one was asked all that often to try and just run by someone but they didn't have trouble getting open on the vast majority of routes they ran last year. 

We had trouble with explosive plays in general on offense though... No?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-20-2021, 08:12 PM)jason Wrote: We had trouble with explosive plays in general on offense though... No?

Yep. 

There's not a lot of speed on offense right now but that's different than if the receivers can get open consistently. 

[Benton]

(04-20-2021, 03:52 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: *sigh*

Yes, they absolutely did. I know you admittedly don’t watch all the games, but it was an issue all season. Even when Burrow had time. If you exclude all the plays in this set of clips where Burrow was being pressured (which was a bunch), you still have to see that our WR’s were not getting open on the rest of them.

Watch these and mark down each time the WR is blanketed and how many times the QB is pressured. https://t.co/EbL1CnIw7C

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 11, 2021

(04-20-2021, 04:14 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: i wonder if part of that is route design

From those clips, I'd say it was Xeno. On most of those, it's not that the WR isn't getting a step away, it's the defender is running the exact same route. There's some over throws (meh, Burrow was a rookie), but everything else in the clip from :35 seconds on is like the defenders were working out of the same playbook.

[Whatever]

(04-20-2021, 05:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Nate. No.

I really wish people (everyone that keeps harping on how terrible they are) would go back and watch before they make declarative statements. 

Are they running by guys vertically? Not at any moderate rate but they do_not_have_trouble getting separation on the majority of routes they run. 

Adding a guy that can stretch the field consistently would be great but they're not completely unable to mount a good passing attack. 

Out of 135 qualifying players, Boyd was tied for 94th in separation per GPS tracking data.  Tee tied for 106th.  Both are firmly in the bottom third of the league in getting separation..

Boyd was our best WR in terms of separation.  Only one team's best WR in that category was worse than Boyd.  30 had at least one WR better than Boyd.

They are objectively bad at getting separation compared to their peers in the league.  That's a hard fact based on data, not an eyeball test.  

[fredtoast]

(04-21-2021, 12:12 AM)Whatever Wrote: Out of 135 qualifying players, Boyd was tied for 94th in separation per GPS tracking data.  Tee tied for 106th.  Both are firmly in the bottom third of the league in getting separation..


They are objectively bad at getting separation compared to their peers in the league.  That's a hard fact based on data, not an eyeball test.  

That "Separation" stat is silly.  Drew Sample finished SIXTH BEST IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.  So if you want to live by "hard facts" let me hear you sing the praises of Drew Sample.

If you look at the numbers Both Boyd and Higgins have numbers exactly like or even better than many of the best WRs in the league.  Meanwhile many of the players on the top of the list are nobodies.

There does not seem to be any correlation between "separation" and "production".  So the stat is meaningless.

[CJD]

Higgins' ceiling is AJ Green. The only thing stopping him would be his straight line speed, which is slightly slower than AJ's (4.54 vs 4.50 I believe).

Haven't read the 8 page thread, but just thought I'd throw that in there :)

[bengaloo]

One thing that will help the WRs is being able to run the ball really good. Got to get the run game going in a big way. If I were in charge it would be priority #1 right now because it changes everything. Helps the WR's, protects the QB and helps the defense. Defenses wont stop us if we can really get Mixon going.

[CJD]

(04-21-2021, 09:42 AM)bengaloo Wrote: One thing that will help the WRs is being able to run the ball really good. Got to get the run game going in a big way. If I were in charge it would be priority #1 right now because it changes everything. Helps the WR's, protects the QB and helps the defense. Defenses wont stop us if we can really get Mixon going.

I hear there's a good chance an OT that is really good at run blocking may be available at #5 overall :)

[bengaloo]

(04-21-2021, 10:01 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I hear there's a good chance an OT that is really good at run blocking may be available at #5 overall :)

I heard the same lol. Hoping we go that route honestly. 

[Whatever]

(04-21-2021, 09:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That "Separation" stat is silly.  Drew Sample finished SIXTH BEST IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.  So if you want to live by "hard facts" let me hear you sing the praises of Drew Sample.

If you look at the numbers Both Boyd and Higgins have numbers exactly like or even better than many of the best WRs in the league.  Meanwhile many of the players on the top of the list are nobodies.

There does not seem to be any correlation between "separation" and "production".  So the stat is meaningless.

It's silly if you don't look into it any further and figure out why some good players are down around Tee and Boyd, while some role players are near the top.

A WR1 is usually going to draw the other team's best CB, and also is more likely to see double teams. A WR that gets 2.7 yards of separation when facing other team's top CB's and double teams is better than a guy like Boyd who gets 2.7 yards of separation when most often matched up with another team's #3/slot CB.  

Not to mention you're moving the goalposts from our WR's not being able to get separation to separation doesn't matter.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-20-2021, 05:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Nate. No.

I really wish people (everyone that keeps harping on how terrible they are) would go back and watch before they make declarative statements. 

Are they running by guys vertically? Not at any moderate rate but they do_not_have_trouble getting separation on the majority of routes they run. 

Adding a guy that can stretch the field consistently would be great but they're not completely unable to mount a good passing attack. 

I am just saying I saw it a lot last year where our guys couldn't get open. I think a lot of it is no running game and poor
blocking though, have to give the WR's time to get open just the same as giving the QB time. A good running game will 
help. Remember, I am not for one over the other in the Sewell/Chase debate. Just open to either.

(04-20-2021, 08:12 PM)jason Wrote: We had trouble with explosive plays in general on offense though... No?

For sure.

(04-20-2021, 10:40 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yep. 

There's not a lot of speed on offense right now but that's different than if the receivers can get open consistently. 

Speed helps and we DO need a speedster with good hands like Jamarr Chase.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-21-2021, 12:12 AM)Whatever Wrote: Out of 135 qualifying players, Boyd was tied for 94th in separation per GPS tracking data.  Tee tied for 106th.  Both are firmly in the bottom third of the league in getting separation..

Boyd was our best WR in terms of separation.  Only one team's best WR in that category was worse than Boyd.  30 had at least one WR better than Boyd.

They are objectively bad at getting separation compared to their peers in the league.  That's a hard fact based on data, not an eyeball test.  

So you're goin to look at numbers alone and make a decision. I don't work that way. I take as much data as i can find, including what actually happens on the field, that i see with my eye and make a decision based on that.

Looks like i'm gonna have to buy some software that will allow me to create a clip of all the times they created separation and caught a pass...